It's the 2028 election. What's the biggest Republican safe state?

[patzer]

All of the big Republican-leaning states don't seem to be particularly safe any more. Which leads me to wonder... by the time of the 2028 presidential election, what will be the biggest state that's generally seen as "safe Republican"?

Personally I wonder if it'll be Indiana and Tennessee.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ohio, although probably even as late as 2028 there will be some people trying to pretend that it is competitive.

[Skill and Chance]

Ohio, maybe Florida depending on how you define safe (double digit margins in Florida are still really hard). 

[BigVic]

Ohio will be safe R. The new bellwethers are MI/WI/PA

[Chips]

#4

[S019]

Ohio

[Vosem]

Would put my money on Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Florida

[GregTheGreat657]

Ohio, though the election mafia will claim it is competitive, even in an election where OH goes red by over 15, which will likely happen at least once in the next 20 years.

[Xing]

Ohio. No way is Texas safe, and Florida is only safe if the incumbent president is a Floridian Republican with high approvals.

[BigVic]

Ohio.

[Schiff for Senate]

  I'm surprised at how many chose Ohio. Ohio voted significantly right of the nation in 2016 and 2020, not before that - and polls in 2020 showed Ohio as a swing state. A lot of Obama/Trump/Trump and Obama/Clinton/Trump voters likely cast their vote not as a vote for the GOP but a vote for Trump. If Trump isn't the nominee in 2028, Trump decides not to endorse the GOP nominee, and/or runs as a third party independent, many Trump diehard voters may stay home. The reason so many voted for Obama and then Trump is because of a.) Trump's personality as an 'outsider' and b.) because he was protectionist. 8 points is solid, but it's likely no Republican will match Trump's support in Ohio or even come close in the next seven years. Of course, this - whether Obama/Trump and Clinton/Trump voters will switch back blue, stay home, or remain Republican in 2024 if Trump isn't the nominee - all remains to be seen. This question can be much better answered after the 2024 election, when we have more perspective on these voters' larger patterns, especially if Trump isn't the nominee (in which case the question of whether Trump captured otherwise Democratic voters with his personality/political positions or just made a breakthrough with an even otherwise Republican-trending demographic, will be answered). But for now, I predict that Ohio trends bluer in 2024/2028 assuming Trump isn't the nominee, although even if he is, my guess is he will underperform in Ohio (winning by 6-7 percentage points) and in the nation - he lost some voters after January 6 (even 7/50, or an unprecedented 14%, of senators from his own party, voted to remove him from office after he'd already left office, and if this is any indication of his national support levels, it's that they've fallen, if marginally). I think we can all agree Texas, Florida, Michigan and North Carolina aren't 'solid red states', so the answer here is Tennessee and Indiana, which are faithfully Republican and have been so for some time (excluding 2008 for Indiana).

[Ferguson97]

Ohio. Texas and Florida can possibly be won by the Democrats, but I really think Ohio is done.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Ohio or Florida.