NM-01 Special Election Prediction and Margin
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  NM-01 Special Election Prediction and Margin		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Predict Winner and a Range of Margin
#1
Moores wins (any margin)		  
#2
Stansbury wins by 0-4.9%		  
#3
Stansbury wins by 5-9.9%		  
#4
Stansbury wins by 10-14.9%		  
#5
Stansbury wins by 15-19.9%		  
#6
Stansbury wins by 20-24.9%		  
#7
Stansbury wins by 25-29.9%		  
#8
Stansbury wins by 30%+		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: NM-01 Special Election Prediction and Margin  (Read 2319 times)
Young Conservative
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« Reply #25 on: June 01, 2021, 12:27:13 PM »
Quote from: #Neoliberal Elitist Butte on June 01, 2021, 12:19:37 PM
Quote from: Young Conservative on June 01, 2021, 12:17:36 PM
Stansbury by a normal amount. There’s no indication there’s anything noteworthy here for either side. It will be spun as a win for the Democrat’s narrative  though by the media.

If you think that will be bad, just wait until they easily hold VA and NJ in November.
I could see an upset for Youngkin happening in Virginia though, or I could see a result much closer than expected. I know this is an unpopular opinion on here.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #26 on: June 01, 2021, 01:17:01 PM »
Stansbury wins 55-42%. So by around 13 percentage points. A slight decrease from November last year.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #27 on: June 01, 2021, 01:20:40 PM »
When will the NYT page be up?
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #28 on: June 01, 2021, 01:44:46 PM »
I think Stansbury will win by 15%, slightly less than Haaland won by last year.
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #29 on: June 01, 2021, 02:15:03 PM »
Stansbury by low to mid teens.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #30 on: June 01, 2021, 02:20:50 PM »
The most reasonable choice (at this point) does indeed seem to be the D 10-15% range
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Skunk
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« Reply #31 on: June 01, 2021, 02:21:23 PM »
Stansbury by ~15% and it will have no effect on 2022 whatsoever. Nobody outside of this forum and election Twitter will remember this even happened in a couple of days from now.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #32 on: June 01, 2021, 02:23:33 PM »
Quote from: Skunk on June 01, 2021, 02:21:23 PM
Stansbury by ~15% and it will have no effect on 2022 whatsoever. Nobody outside of this forum and election Twitter will remember this even happened in a couple of days from now.

The actual D/R hill committee operatives will though. It will almost certainly make it into fundraising emails etc. if Dems underperform.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #33 on: June 01, 2021, 02:39:49 PM »
Stansbury by just over 15
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #34 on: June 01, 2021, 02:52:49 PM »
This is not going to be close. Early/Absentee vote is more Democratic than the 2020 General. Probably 80%+ of the vote was in before election day. Stansbury by 20+.
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #35 on: June 01, 2021, 03:05:20 PM »
Stansbury +15.5
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #36 on: June 01, 2021, 03:33:53 PM »
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Nyvin
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« Reply #37 on: June 01, 2021, 03:38:53 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on June 01, 2021, 03:33:53 PM


Is it normal for D's to lead on E-day vote like that?
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #38 on: June 01, 2021, 03:39:54 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on June 01, 2021, 03:38:53 PM

Is it normal for D's to lead on E-day vote like that?

I don't believe so.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: June 01, 2021, 04:22:45 PM »
Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15
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Duke of York
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« Reply #40 on: June 01, 2021, 04:31:49 PM »
This is not looking like it’s going to be even remotely close. Hard to see how Stansbury wins by less than 15 though over 20 seems very possible.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #41 on: June 01, 2021, 04:32:28 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2021, 05:02:51 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »
Definitely not the numbers Republicans were hoping for.

I'll revise my prediction to Stansbury +19, which wouldn't change my vote in the poll.
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beesley
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« Reply #42 on: June 01, 2021, 04:33:18 PM »
I'll go Stansbury+19 based on everything. Looks to be pretty comfortable for her.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #43 on: June 01, 2021, 04:35:28 PM »
Bold prediction that it will be Stansbury+26 (i.e., Stansbury outperforms Biden) based on the last-minute breakdowns.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #44 on: June 01, 2021, 04:37:10 PM »
Somewhere around Stansbury +20 seems right if those E-Day numbers are to be believed. Honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it’s higher depending on the breakdown of indies.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #45 on: June 01, 2021, 04:43:27 PM »
Stansbury +22 based on E-Day turnout figures
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #46 on: June 01, 2021, 04:55:48 PM »
Closer to Biden's 2020 result than Haaland's.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #47 on: June 01, 2021, 06:16:37 PM »
I picked 20-25.
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Terlylane
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« Reply #48 on: June 01, 2021, 06:29:09 PM »
Even Red Eagle knows this will be a Dem victory. Which is a shame since Stansbury is terrible.
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LeBron
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« Reply #49 on: June 01, 2021, 07:58:06 PM »
Stansbury +21
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