Why was Joe Biden's campaign always expected to collapse through 2019?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Also worth noting that (at least from my perspective, and as compared to Democrats in general) Atlas's 2020 presidential election board was EXTREMELY pro-Bernie and anti-"moderate Dem lane" in 2019 and early 2020.

Lol no it wasn't. Bernie supporters were in a minority and many of the regular posters were vocally anti. Here's a poll from January with the combined Bernie/Warren progressive lane at just under 50%.

Also interestingly here's a poll from the end of 2019 with 3/4 of posters saying Biden could still win after losing IA+NH+NV. And here's another poll with 75% of posters predicting he would win the nomination. So it's questionable whether he was in fact underrated on Atlas.

The Atlas poll you linked shows Bernie at 31% and Biden basically tied with Warren in second at 15%. It also shows Bernie+Warren at about 47%. Compare that with RCP's polling averages in early January, which shows Biden with a clear lead over Bernie (~29% to ~19%), and which shows Bernie+Warren collectively at about 34%. So even the poll you linked shows that Atlas was clearly more pro-Bernie and more pro-progressive, and less pro-Biden, than the Democratic primary as a whole.

31% for Sanders is hardly "the board was EXTREMELY [your caps] pro-Bernie and anti-moderate Dem lane". Indeed anti-Bernie voices here were larger especially when the split with Warren happened. People here were 50/50 progressive/moderate with a portion of the progressive wing itself critical of Bernie.

I agree that Atlas overrated Warren during her boom.

[Orser67]

Also worth noting that (at least from my perspective, and as compared to Democrats in general) Atlas's 2020 presidential election board was EXTREMELY pro-Bernie and anti-"moderate Dem lane" in 2019 and early 2020.

Lol no it wasn't. Bernie supporters were in a minority and many of the regular posters were vocally anti. Here's a poll from January with the combined Bernie/Warren progressive lane at just under 50%.

Also interestingly here's a poll from the end of 2019 with 3/4 of posters saying Biden could still win after losing IA+NH+NV. And here's another poll with 75% of posters predicting he would win the nomination. So it's questionable whether he was in fact underrated on Atlas.

The Atlas poll you linked shows Bernie at 31% and Biden basically tied with Warren in second at 15%. It also shows Bernie+Warren at about 47%. Compare that with RCP's polling averages in early January, which shows Biden with a clear lead over Bernie (~29% to ~19%), and which shows Bernie+Warren collectively at about 34%. So even the poll you linked shows that Atlas was clearly more pro-Bernie and more pro-progressive, and less pro-Biden, than the Democratic primary as a whole.

31% for Sanders is hardly "the board was EXTREMELY [your caps] pro-Bernie and anti-moderate Dem lane". Indeed anti-Bernie voices here were larger especially when the split with Warren happened. People here were 50/50 progressive/moderate with a portion of the progressive wing itself critical of Bernie.

I agree that Atlas overrated Warren during her boom.

I'll grant "EXTREMELY" is an overstatement based on the threads that you and I have posted here, and looking back on these threads Atlas wasn't quite as pro-Bernie as I remembered. But the poll you posted still shows he had by far the most Atlas support of any single candidate, and he was still more popular on Atlas than among the general Democratic primary electorate, which was my original point about why people on Atlas underrated Biden.

I'll also add that Bernie did have a pretty strong, if short-lived, boom on this forum in February 2020. This mid-Feburary poll shows Bernie with a narrow majority of Atlas support (and more like 3/5 if you take out the people who selected the "I just want to see the results" option), and this early February poll shows about 70% of Atlas users predicting that he'd win the nomination.

[Ferguson97]

The real answer is because his base is not terminally online.