What would it take to make Oklahoma a blue state?

[Bootes Void]

its probably the most red meat conservative state in america, what would it take to make it a blue state?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Replace every single oil company headquarters with renewable energy firms and start a renewables boom that draws in tons of green tech workers.

[Skill and Chance]

Need to somehow get the Oklahoma City/Norman area voting like Austin.  It's not totally crazy, but it would probably take a couple decades.

[Roll Roons]

Need to somehow get the Oklahoma City/Norman area voting like Austin.  It's not totally crazy, but it would probably take a couple decades.

Tulsa would also need to swing substantially to the left. Even then, those rural areas will be very tough to overcome. Admittedly, Oklahoma is probably close to maxed out for the GOP, but I still expect it to be one of the 5 most Republican states in the country for quite some time. As OP said, it's just so, so conservative in almost every way.

[Chips]

Turn Oklahoma City to Denver and turn Tulsa into Boulder. Have surrounding counties vote like the suburbs of those places.

[Agonized-Statism]

As the intersection between the South and the Plains, Oklahoma is a very conservative voting bloc. To even make the state closer under current conditions, the Democrats would have to further develop their conservative wing (already happening IMO with Never Trumpers) while also muscling out environmentalists (pretty much impossible).

[wimp]

More Native-American IDpol maybe?

[Skill and Chance]

As the intersection between the South and the Plains, Oklahoma is a very conservative voting bloc. To even make the state closer under current conditions, the Democrats would have to further develop their conservative wing (already happening IMO with Never Trumpers) while also muscling out environmentalists (pretty much impossible).

Or climate change just recedes as a partisan issue after some late 2020's/early 2030's bipartisan deal.  Very underrated possibility IMO in a world where R's can't win without Florida and somewhat later, D's can't win without Texas.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A new, variant of COVID evolves. It is orders of magnitude more deadly than the original, with a 95% infection fatality rate or so.

Republicans declare this to be a hoax and refuse to social distance, wear masks, etc etc.

Thankfully, it is not vaccine resistant, so it only kills off the Republicans that didn't get vaccinated previously.

However, then things get even worse.

A new sub-variant evolves, which is vaccine resistant. Another vaccine is eventually developed, but it is developed under the supervision of the Biden Administration. Thus it is not the TRUMP vaccine, which already is enough to make most Republicans wary.

In addition, the vaccine was developed using fetal stem cells, and in some way or another human-animal chimeras. False rumors circulate like wildfire on right wing media that the vaccine was also developed using a serum composed of 34.7% of the blood of aborted babies, with the remaining 65.3% being formed from mildly diluted bone marrow which the NIH contracted with Planned Parenthood to harvest from the carcasses of aborted babies. Those percentages are very precise, and are confirmed by Q; it is widely believed by Republicans that they could not be fabricated because the percentages are too precise to be fabricated.

Consequently, only 10-20% of Republicans take the vaccine. The remainder are mostly killed off by the virus, resulting in the largest percentage margin of victory in the national popular vote in history of American Presidential elections, albeit with tens of millions fewer votes cast than in 2020.

There are other circumstances where Oklahoma could go blue, but they are less plausible than the idea of mass GOP vaccine hesitancy and QAnonist conspiracy mongering, and involve things like every county and municipality in Oklahoma except for Oklahoma City seceding from the state, or various other extreme things like that.

[Agonized-Statism]

Or climate change just recedes as a partisan issue after some late 2020's/early 2030's bipartisan deal.

That's probably where we're headed in the long run- when the crises reach a breaking point and action must be taken, there won't be any need for green parties- but are Republicans really ready for that in just ten years? Climate change is already evident and they're still staunchly anti-environmentalist. It'll take evidence as tangible as whole cities disappearing to get bipartisan climate action. Even then, the eco-fascist direction conservatism would presumably take would probably appeal to Oklahomans more.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Need to somehow get the Oklahoma City/Norman area voting like Austin.  It's not totally crazy, but it would probably take a couple decades.

Tulsa would also need to swing substantially to the left. Even then, those rural areas will be very tough to overcome. Admittedly, Oklahoma is probably close to maxed out for the GOP, but I still expect it to be one of the 5 most Republican states in the country for quite some time. As OP said, it's just so, so conservative in almost every way.

It has the two worst combinations possible for Democrats, it is part of the Great Plains and it also partly Southern in the Southeast. Back in the day having Little Dixie in the state benefited Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

[bagelman]

Dustbowl 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

A Democratic ticket with Fred R. Harris/Elizabeth Warren running on a "Make Oklahoma Great Again!" Oklahoma-first platform, might be able to win a plurality (40%) of the vote running against a Republican ticket of Liz Cheney/Larry Hogan, but Oklahoma will never be a "blue state."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope retiring and a D candidate comes in and win, but that won't happen, Inhole is immortal

[Schiff for Senate]

Oklahoma as a 'blue' state is likely impossible. Oklahoma as a purple state, however, is conceivable, if improbable for at least some decade. For one thing, expand the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. One congressional district for Oklahoma City (D+10 to D+15), one for its suburbs/exurbs (R+3 to R+8). Oklahoma County has 1,000,000 people, and regularly gives Democrats 65-75% of the vote. The suburbs of Oklahoma have expanded and become centrist/liberal leaning - Cleveland County has 375,000 people and gives Democrats 50-55% of the vote; Canadian County has 140,000, people, and gives Republicans votes in the mid/high fifties; Logan County has 70,000 people, and gives Republicans votes in the mid/high fifties. Same thing for Tulsa - Tulsa is split up into two districts, one urban (even CPVI) and one suburban/exurban (R+10). Tulsa and the Tulsa metropolitan area has grown and liberalized - Tulsa has 800,000 people and gives Democrats a percentage of the vote in the mid-fifties (53-57%); Okmulgee has 60,000 people and gives the GOP 55-60% of the vote. This would make Oklahoma around 58-60% Republican.

  Also make the Democratic Party the party of oil and farming subsidies and have them (at least regionally) laxen their support of gun control. Make Oklahoma the state of wind power and renewable resources.

[Skill and Chance]

Need to somehow get the Oklahoma City/Norman area voting like Austin.  It's not totally crazy, but it would probably take a couple decades.

Tulsa would also need to swing substantially to the left. Even then, those rural areas will be very tough to overcome. Admittedly, Oklahoma is probably close to maxed out for the GOP, but I still expect it to be one of the 5 most Republican states in the country for quite some time. As OP said, it's just so, so conservative in almost every way.

That's true.  They would also need to get Tulsa voting at least like Houston, but that part seems reasonable in the near future. 

IMO I think Dems start getting Houston/Harris County numbers in both OK major metros by 2030 or so, but it stops there and that's still good for safe 55/43ish GOP wins statewide.

[bagelman]

National change of colors. Republicans become a "blue" party, using colors like navy instead of red in a rebranding effort. Democrats become green or something.

[Hope For A New Era]

Total party platform switch on energy issues.

[If my soul was made of stone]

An oil crash and some sort of massive church scandal that causes people to leave Evangelical Protestantism en masse, in rapid succession.

[Real Texan Politics]

Move in a sh*t ton of tech companies into OKC and Tulsa and watch all the millenials/gen z flock over there.

All joking aside though, probably not much for the next several decades.

[DS0816]

its probably the most red meat conservative state in america, what would it take to make it a blue state?

Realignments of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

That is not outside the realm of possibility. The Democrats are well on their way given how many George W. Bush-era war mongers are now with them. The Republicans would need to counter-realign. But, right now, they won’t do that while people like Mitch McConnell (who cost them both 2020 Georgia U.S. Senate seats and control of the U.S. Senate) still have power.

This is a question which doesn’t require one to challenge himself for the correct answer. Oklahoma is routinely one of the five best states for Republicans. So, Democrats couldn’t reach it with anything less than 45 carried states. (They haven’t carried beyond 28 in twenty-five years.)

The question to ask is, “What could it possibly matter?”

[Alben Barkley]

An oil crash and some sort of massive church scandal that causes people to leave Evangelical Protestantism en masse, in rapid succession.

Impossible. The whole thing about being an evangelical protestant is that even if your church is torn apart by scandal or schism, you can just go to another one. Not lose your religion entirely. It’s not like the Catholic Church where it’s all centralized; the pastor of every church is like their own Pope basically. And even then, not like the RCC suffered too badly from their own massive scandal. There is no conceivable way to rapidly get all these people to just totally abandon evangelical Christianity, and even if they did, that still wouldn’t guarantee they’d suddenly become socially liberal Democratic voters. Religion in general is on the decline in this country, and that generational change is what might ultimately liberalize some places over time, but it’s happening slower in states like Oklahoma than others. I’d imagine it would be one of the very last holdout states with a strong evangelical presence, in fact.

Oh and the other thing about evangelical Christianity is that it strongly encourages “evangelism,” i.e. converting people. So that’s another reason why it’s declining slower than mainline Protestantism and Catholicism in the US. Even the people they lose can be replaced with new converts, while those churches don’t put nearly as much emphasis on converting people and thus have older populations that are dying out faster. Plus they are less zealous/conservative as it is.

[Skill and Chance]

An oil crash and some sort of massive church scandal that causes people to leave Evangelical Protestantism en masse, in rapid succession.

Impossible. The whole thing about being an evangelical protestant is that even if your church is torn apart by scandal or schism, you can just go to another one. Not lose your religion entirely. It’s not like the Catholic Church where it’s all centralized; the pastor of every church is like their own Pope basically. And even then, not like the RCC suffered too badly from their own massive scandal. There is no conceivable way to rapidly get all these people to just totally abandon evangelical Christianity, and even if they did, that still wouldn’t guarantee they’d suddenly become socially liberal Democratic voters. Religion in general is on the decline in this country, and that generational change is what might ultimately liberalize some places over time, but it’s happening slower in states like Oklahoma than others. I’d imagine it would be one of the very last holdout states with a strong evangelical presence, in fact.

Oh and the other thing about evangelical Christianity is that it strongly encourages “evangelism,” i.e. converting people. So that’s another reason why it’s declining slower than mainline Protestantism and Catholicism in the US. Even the people they lose can be replaced with new converts, while those churches don’t put nearly as much emphasis on converting people and thus have older populations that are dying out faster. Plus they are less zealous/conservative as it is.

Yes, to flip a state like Oklahoma, a lot of Evangelicals would need to end up in the Dem coalition while remaining in the faith.  I personally think it's very underrated how many younger Evangelicals are a better cultural fit for the left than the right in the long run, especially the secularizing post-Trump right.  Every day we are moving further and further away from the right wing = traditionalist pro-family alignment of 1980-2010 and there's a significant woke streak developing in certain younger churches. 

I would not be surprised at all to see the Evangelical vote snap to something like 60R/40D the day after SCOTUS overturns Roe and starts upholding red state abortion bans.  Abortion is the only issue keeping a lot of people in the GOP.

[Biden his time]

An oil crash and some sort of massive church scandal that causes people to leave Evangelical Protestantism en masse, in rapid succession.

Impossible. The whole thing about being an evangelical protestant is that even if your church is torn apart by scandal or schism, you can just go to another one. Not lose your religion entirely. It’s not like the Catholic Church where it’s all centralized; the pastor of every church is like their own Pope basically. And even then, not like the RCC suffered too badly from their own massive scandal. There is no conceivable way to rapidly get all these people to just totally abandon evangelical Christianity, and even if they did, that still wouldn’t guarantee they’d suddenly become socially liberal Democratic voters. Religion in general is on the decline in this country, and that generational change is what might ultimately liberalize some places over time, but it’s happening slower in states like Oklahoma than others. I’d imagine it would be one of the very last holdout states with a strong evangelical presence, in fact.

Oh and the other thing about evangelical Christianity is that it strongly encourages “evangelism,” i.e. converting people. So that’s another reason why it’s declining slower than mainline Protestantism and Catholicism in the US. Even the people they lose can be replaced with new converts, while those churches don’t put nearly as much emphasis on converting people and thus have older populations that are dying out faster. Plus they are less zealous/conservative as it is.

Yes, to flip a state like Oklahoma, a lot of Evangelicals would need to end up in the Dem coalition while remaining in the faith.  I personally think it's very underrated how many younger Evangelicals are a better cultural fit for the left than the right in the long run, especially the secularizing post-Trump right.  Every day we are moving further and further away from the right wing = traditionalist pro-family alignment of 1980-2010 and there's a significant woke streak developing in certain younger churches.  

I would not be surprised at all to see the Evangelical vote snap to something like 60R/40D the day after SCOTUS overturns Roe and starts upholding red state abortion bans.  Abortion is the only issue keeping a lot of people in the GOP.

I indeed hope that to be true, but putting anecdotal evidence aside, do you have any sources that'd prove that to be the case? How many single-issue-abortion voters are there which would vote for the Democrat if not for abortion really? Have there been any studies or polls taken?

And how many of these people will fight until abortion is outlawed in California and New York as well?

Moreover, how many of these people will become single-issue something else voters if abortion is outlawed?

[Person Man]

An oil crash and some sort of massive church scandal that causes people to leave Evangelical Protestantism en masse, in rapid succession.

Impossible. The whole thing about being an evangelical protestant is that even if your church is torn apart by scandal or schism, you can just go to another one. Not lose your religion entirely. It’s not like the Catholic Church where it’s all centralized; the pastor of every church is like their own Pope basically. And even then, not like the RCC suffered too badly from their own massive scandal. There is no conceivable way to rapidly get all these people to just totally abandon evangelical Christianity, and even if they did, that still wouldn’t guarantee they’d suddenly become socially liberal Democratic voters. Religion in general is on the decline in this country, and that generational change is what might ultimately liberalize some places over time, but it’s happening slower in states like Oklahoma than others. I’d imagine it would be one of the very last holdout states with a strong evangelical presence, in fact.

Oh and the other thing about evangelical Christianity is that it strongly encourages “evangelism,” i.e. converting people. So that’s another reason why it’s declining slower than mainline Protestantism and Catholicism in the US. Even the people they lose can be replaced with new converts, while those churches don’t put nearly as much emphasis on converting people and thus have older populations that are dying out faster. Plus they are less zealous/conservative as it is.

Yes, to flip a state like Oklahoma, a lot of Evangelicals would need to end up in the Dem coalition while remaining in the faith.  I personally think it's very underrated how many younger Evangelicals are a better cultural fit for the left than the right in the long run, especially the secularizing post-Trump right.  Every day we are moving further and further away from the right wing = traditionalist pro-family alignment of 1980-2010 and there's a significant woke streak developing in certain younger churches.  

I would not be surprised at all to see the Evangelical vote snap to something like 60R/40D the day after SCOTUS overturns Roe and starts upholding red state abortion bans.  Abortion is the only issue keeping a lot of people in the GOP.

I indeed hope that to be true, but putting anecdotal evidence aside, do you have any sources that'd prove that to be the case? How many single-issue-abortion voters are there which would vote for the Democrat if not for abortion really? Have there been any studies or polls taken?

And how many of these people will fight until abortion is outlawed in California and New York as well?

Moreover, how many of these people will become single-issue something else voters if abortion is outlawed?

It will be really interesting if abortion is overruled. If all the sudden 35 or 40 states ban it, there could be the political capital generated to make there be a "War on Abortion". That could be the next frontier on that issue. On the other hand, if the issue stalls out where roughly half the country has it and the other half doesn't or something like that, or if there is a backlash and abortion becomes generally available again in a few cycles anyways, there will be a lot of energy going into other things. Maybe a "War on Abortion" wouldn't be enough and they will start talking about how bad birth control is or alcohol, or any other form of "secular decadence". Maybe instead of expanding upon the religious dimension, they expand upon the philosophical issue and start going talking about animal rights or something like that.