2024 if there is a war with Iran

[Agonized-Statism]

A little too speculative for the 2024 board, but a scenario few people are talking about. What will the 2024 election look like if JCPOA negotiations fall apart and the Biden administration gets involved in a conflict with Iran in some capacity (whether that's "boots on the ground" supporting regional powers in their own wars against Tehran, intervention supporting a color revolution put down and considered human rights abuse, a unilateral invasion to prevent WMD manufacturing, or a multilateral one)? I caution against immediately assuming the war would be unpopular with a majority of the public, though that's more likely than not IMO.

[Chips]

Depends on how popular the war is.

[Agonized-Statism]

Depends on how popular the war is.

Well yeah, and that's up to the poster. Gimme maps

[Chips]

Depends on how popular the war is.

Well yeah, and that's up to the poster. Gimme maps

If the war effort proves popular among the American public:



FL, NC, ME-02 flip. TX narrowly stays red.

If the war proves to be 50/50:



NC and WI flip.

If the war effort proves very unpopular:



NV, NH, GA, AZ, NE-02, WI, MI, PA flip. MN is on the cusp.

[Agonized-Statism]

One thing this would have an interesting impact on would be the Republican primaries, if anyone has any thoughts on that. I can't imagine 100% opposition to the war itself from them, and the debates over how their candidate would manage it would really shake things up.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the war was launched a few weeks before the election, Biden could well benefit from a very cynically earned rally-behind-the-flag effect. If it was fought through proxies, an Iran conflict would probably not be a major feature of the presidential campaign, although a refugee crisis could feature in the background.

If neither of the above conditions held, the election would become significantly worse for Democrats, particularly in the rust belt. The Republican candidate wouldn't even need to oppose the war to benefit, although that'd help. The effect on the Republican primaries would indeed be interesting (likely coming down to doves versus hawks insisting the war was just being waged incompetently).

Assuming Biden vs Trump (a new boots-on-the-ground war would encourage Trump to dust off the old MAGA slogans):



The states that flipped as a result of the war would be NV and PA.

Edit: MI probably wouldn't flip, on balance.

[KYRockefeller]

I think Americans are tired of foreign commitments and foreign wars right now.  I can't see this as a benefit for Biden in any way, shape, or form UNLESS Iran somehow attacked the U.S. mainland to trigger the war.  If it started with a pre-emptive U.S. strike, or started because of an Israeli offensive against Iran, Biden would face significant backlash from far-left Democrats, as well as a lot of Republicans who have crafted a foreign policy in direct contrast to the neoconservative turn of the early 2000s.

[SnowLabrador]

Without knowing how popular the war is, or how it's going, I'm just going to say an extremely close election with very high turnout. I hope this doesn't happen, for more reasons than just that.