For fun, let's try and predict the EV allocations after the 2030 Census!

[CascadianIndy]

Apologies if this is posted in the wrong board by the way, but here's my prediction which is to be mercilessly quoted in 2031! Feel free to post your own projections that are going to embarrass you a decade from now.

[Roll Roons]

NV-05, UT-05 and ID-03 all seem likely.

I think there's a good chance we get at least one of VA-12 or TN-10, possibly at the expense of MN-08 or MI-13.

[_.]

Apologies if this is posted in the wrong board by the way, but here's my prediction which is to be mercilessly quoted in 2031! Feel free to post your own projections that are going to embarrass you a decade from now.

It's the right board.

You may be interested in the predictions made on this thread.

My prediction was:

-SNIP-


TX+3
FL+2
VA+1
WA+1
AZ+1
UT+1
ID+1

CA-2
PA-1
IL-1
OH-1
MI-1
MN-1
WI-1
CT-1
RI-1

The Presidential electoral map would look like this.


Last fifteen seats allocated:

421. AZ-10
422. CO-8
423. TX-40
424. KY-6
425. MS-4
426. IL-16
427. CA-50
428. IN-9
429. MO-8
430. AL-7
431. NY-26
432. WA-10
433. TX-41
434. FL-30
435. VA-12

First fifteen seats which just missed the cutoff:

436. OH-15
437. CA-51
438. RI-2
439. CT-5
440. MI-13
441. MN-8
442. PA-17
443. TX-42
444. GA-15
445. CA-52
446. NV-5
447. WI-8
448. TN-10
449. MA-10
450. NC-15

So some potential dark horses for an unexpected gain of one seat are Georgia, Nevada, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and North Carolina.

On the flip-side, some potential dark horses for an unexpected loss of one seat are Alabama, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky.


Inside the spoiler you can see my projection for each state, I used a mixture of the 2019 - 2020 population change in the Vintage Population Estimates, the 2020 Census Resident Population results, and my own personal opinions on where things are going. Even though I tried to keep things realistic, there's a lot of uncertainty here.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Raw Number increase refers to change since 2020, rounded to the nearest 10,000.

• CA: 41,200,000 (+1.66 Million) (+4.2%)
• TX: 33,230,000 (+4.08 Million) (+14.0%)
• FL: 24,200,000 (+2.66 Million) (+12.4%)
• NY: 21,000,000 (+800K) (+4.0%)
• PA: 13,250,000 (+250K) (+1.9%)
• IL: 12,900,000 (+90K) (+0.7%)
• OH: 11,860,000 (+60K) (+0.5%)
• GA: 11,600,000 (+890K) (+8.3%)
• NC: 11,500,000 (+1.06 Million) (+10.2%)
• MI: 10,100,000 (+20K) (+0.2%)
• NJ: 9,750,000 (+460K) (+5.0%)
• VA: 9,410,000 (+780K) (+9.0%)
• WA: 8,630,000 (+920K) (+12.0%)
• AZ: 8,000,000 (+850K) (+11.9%)
• TN: 7,539,000 (+630K) (+9.1%)
• MA: 7,530,000 (+500K) (+7.1%)
• IN: 7,050,000 (+260K) (+3.8%)
• MD: 6,500,000 (+320K) (+5.2%)
• CO: 6,300,000 (+530K) (+9.1%)
• MO: 6,180,000 (+30K) (+0.4%)
• MN: 6,050,000 (+340K) (+6.0%)
• WI: 5,950,000 (+60K) (+1.0%)
• SC: 5,650,000 (+530K) (+10.4%)
• AL: 5,350,000 (+330K) (+6.5%)
• LA: 4,660,000 (±0K) (±0.0%)
• KY: 4,600,000 (+90K) (+2.1%)
• OR: 4,630,000 (+390K) (+9.3%)
• OK: 4,240,000 (+280K) (+7.1%)
• UT: 3,830,000 (+560K) (+17.1%)
• CT: 3,620,000 (+10K) (+0.4%)
• NV: 3,570,000 (+470K) (+15.0%)
• IA: 3,250,000 (+60K) (+1.9%)
• AR: 3,100,000 (+90K) (+2.9%)
• KS: 2,980,000 (+40K) (+1.4%)
• MS: 2,900,000 (-60K) (-2.1%)
• NM: 2,225,000 (+110K) (+5.1%)
• ID: 2,200,000 (+360K) (+19.6%)
• NE: 2,110,000 (+150K) (+7.6%)
• WV: 1,700,000 (-90K) (-5.2%)
• HI: 1,530,000 (+70K) (+5.1%)
• NH: 1,475,000 (+100K) (+7.1%)
• ME: 1,415,000 (+50K) (+3.9%)
• MT: 1,215,000 (+130K) (+12.1%)
• RI: 1,150,000 (+50K) (+4.8%)
• DE: 1,090,000 (+100K) (+10.1%)
• SD: 960,000 (+70K) (+8.3%)
• ND: 820,000 (+40K) (+5.3%)
• AK: 760,000 (+30K) (+3.6%)
• VT: 670,000 (+30K) (+4.2%)
• WY: 600,000 (+20K) (+4.0%)

DC: 760,000 (+70K) (+10.2%)

USA: 352,789,000 (+21.34 Million) (+6.4%)

Feel free to bump this in ten years so we can all laugh hard.

What do you all think?