AZ R primary - AZ Highground/Public Integrity Alliance: Brnovich +28

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Public Integrity Alliance appears to be an anti-dark money group that has gone after Democrats and Republicans in the past.

Details on the poll here.

May 3-5
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Mark Brnovich 28%
Michael McGuire 1%
Blake Masters 1%
Undecided 61%

[SnowLabrador]

The nomination is Brnovich's if he wants it. As for the general election, Kelly is an underdog. Lean R.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The nomination is Brnovich's if he wants it. As for the general election, Kelly is an underdog. Lean R.

The poll's good for Brnovich, but 61% are undecided and other polls have shown Ducey and other Republicans struggling when pitted against Biggs, who was not listed for this survey. I can see a case for Brnovich being more appealing than Ducey to primary voters, but tying him to the governor doesn't seem like a particularly tall order.

He can definitely win and might even be the frontrunner in the primary, but I wouldn't call any AZ Republican primary a cakewalk. At the statewide level, that electorate rarely plays around and chucks incumbents/pseudo-incumbents more frequently than in most US states.

[Spectator]

This is a very weak lead for a sitting AG against people no one has ever heard of before. They should’ve texted him against any of the sitting congresspeople and that would have shown how tenuous his lead really is.

[MT Treasurer]

Of course Atlas will spin this as an awful poll for the "AZ GQP"

Brnovich may or may not win the nomination (I don’t think he will, but this is not a "very weak" showing for him — AG is not comparable to GOV/SEN in terms of the attention/publicity the office attracts), but I have a suspicion that the Republican's "candidate quality" won’t be the lifeline for Mark Kelly that so many people here think it will be. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable seat for Democrats, and there’s a good chance that Kelly will end up being even more overrated than Dean Heller in 2018. There’s no way NH is an easy pick-up opportunity for the GOP while AZ is an uphill battle for them.

[Spectator]

Of course Atlas will spin this as an awful poll for the "AZ GQP"

Brnovich may or may not win the nomination (I don’t think he will, but this is not a "very weak" showing for him — AG is not comparable to GOV/SEN in terms of the attention/publicity the office attracts), but I have a suspicion that the Republican's "candidate quality" won’t be the lifeline for Mark Kelly that so many people here think it will be. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable seat for Democrats, and there’s a good chance that Kelly will end up being even more overrated than Dean Heller in 2018. There’s no way NH is an easy pick-up opportunity for the GOP while AZ is an uphill battle for them.

None of my commentary was speaking to the general election. I think AZ is the 2nd likeliest seat to flip, after NH. That’s even if someone like Kelli Ward is the nominee. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race by more than 3% against any Republican since 2006, and I don’t see that changing in 2022.

However, I don’t see Brnovich getting the nomination after he earned Trump’s scorn. No way. All it will take is a tweet and a rally for his primary opponent and he’s toast.

[MT Treasurer]

None of my commentary was speaking to the general election. I think AZ is the 2nd likeliest seat to flip, after NH. That’s even if someone like Kelli Ward is the nominee. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race by more than 3% against any Republican since 2006, and I don’t see that changing in 2022.

However, I don’t see Brnovich getting the nomination after he earned Trump’s scorn. No way. All it will take is a tweet and a rally for his primary opponent and he’s toast.

I think it will be one of the businessmen, but that’s just a hunch. It’s the most wide-open R primary of any battleground state right now, but I agree that Brnovich might struggle even in a very crowded field.

It’s worth remembering that Brnovich isn’t the only R elected official who has earned Trump's scorn, but few people are actually predicting that, say, Brian Kemp will lose his primary (and that was a much more protracted dispute that received more attention from the media than Trump's bashing of Brnovich). I don’t think a single Trump tweet would amount to a death sentence for his campaign, but if he puts a lot of effort into preventing his nomination, then it’s possible.

[MargieCat]

This poll is useless.

The only well-known official on it is Brnovich.

They should have included some of the GOP house reps (such as Biggs, Gosar, Lesko, Schweikert) and even Kelli Ward.