Rate Nevada

[Non Swing Voter]

Vegas loves Trump because Wayne Newton is a Republican and not a Dem and loves TRUMP

Do you eat magic mushrooms before posting here?

[MATTROSE94]

Adam Laxalt by about 1 or 2%. Even though Adam Laxalt is a QAnon proponent and die hard Trump supporter, Nevada is trending Republican and Catherine Cortez Masto is not a particularly well-known Senator, which may reduce public support in her reelection bid.

[Conservatopia]

Vegas loves Trump because Wayne Newton is a Republican and not a Dem and loves TRUMP

Do you eat magic mushrooms before posting here?

[DaleCooper]

It's a tossup, maybe tilt D if forced to choose.

I voted Safe D though just to be annoying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D we will win NV, WI, PA, NH, and AZ and GA are Tossups

[MT Treasurer]

It’s amusing how less than 20% of users here think this race will be a R flip (with the vast majority rating it Lean/Tilt D) yet certain users will keep acting like their Lean/Likely D ratings for this race are some bold rejection of the Atlas consensus, according to which NV is destined to become a red state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s amusing how less than 20% of users here think this race will be a R flip (with the vast majority rating it Lean/Tilt D) yet certain users will keep acting like their Lean/Likely D ratings for this race are some bold rejection of the Atlas consensus, according to which NV is destined to become a red state.

Adam Laxalt was a political hack for Rs during the Trump recount fight and allowing the Proud boys to audit NV, he lost the Gov race in 2018 when he was favored to win as many polls showed him winning

It's a 303 map with NH, GA in flux and WI and PA as Tossups

Once we have Gubernatorial nominee in NH, we have a better chance against Sununu if he even runs for SEN

[Devils30]

It’s amusing how less than 20% of users here think this race will be a R flip (with the vast majority rating it Lean/Tilt D) yet certain users will keep acting like their Lean/Likely D ratings for this race are some bold rejection of the Atlas consensus, according to which NV is destined to become a red state.

Adam Laxalt was a political hack for Rs during the Trump recount fight and allowing the Proud boys to audit NV, he lost the Gov race in 2018 when he was favored to win as many polls showed him winning

It's a 303 map with NH, GA in flux and WI and PA as Tossups

Once we have Gubernatorial nominee in NH, we have a better chance against Sununu if he even runs for SEN

Laxalt is a sh**tty candidate, GOP better with someone unknown than a proven mediocre one.

[Ferguson97]

I'm gonna say Tilt D. Nevada is the Republican's Florida. Democrats will continue to just barely win statewide races even if years favorable to Republicans.

[Iacon]

This far out?  Lean D.  But if there is a disproportionate minority collapse there, CCM could easily go down.  Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D

[n1240]

Lean D, would still expect Nevada to vote slightly right of the nation, but probably wouldn't be enough to flip unless 2022 ends up being very strong for GOP as a whole.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D, would still expect Nevada to vote slightly right of the nation, but probably wouldn't be enough to flip unless 2022 ends up being very strong for GOP as a whole.

It's gonna vote 51/49 or 52/48 like WI and MI and that is exactly where Biden Approvals are

[Schiff for Senate]

Easy pickup for Republicans. Nevada is the next Arkansas.

Arkansas is filled with backwoods, conservative Democrat-turned-Republicans who voted for Bill but not his wife. It's a largely white state with no highly populous urban centre (Little Rock isn't that big) and no signs of demographic/education/population change.

   Nevada has boomed in population (though the boom has slowed down), and the vast majority of the population resides in Clark County (Las Vegas), a rapidly growing (grew by over 40% from 2000 to 2010) Democratic stronghold. The state also has a large percentage of minorities, especially Hispanics, in the southern part of the state.

 In all fairness, Clark County isn't as liberal as Cook County, Illinois, or Fulton County, Georgia, and the population boom has slowed down, as well as a Hispanic exodus in some areas (South Texas, Southeast Florida) which carried into Nevada to a lesser extent, which is why it trended marginally more conservative (but still voted for Biden) in 2020.

 The best case scenario for the GOP in Nevada is winning - and if they do, it won't be by more than a couple of points, at the very most.

  There is no demographic/population shift that explains your theory of Nevada becoming like Arkansas. Nevada shifted marginally rightward from 2016 to 2020 - from 2.42% to 2.39% (and it voted for Bush in 2004 by 2.59%). Arkansas voted for Bush in 2004 by 9.76% to Romney in 2012 by 23.69% to 27.62% for Trump in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean D, would still expect Nevada to vote slightly right of the nation, but probably wouldn't be enough to flip unless 2022 ends up being very strong for GOP as a whole.

That will most likely be the case, since it's a Biden midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Midterm that only applies if Biden is at 45 percent Approvals has a Prez party lost seats Biden is above 50 percent

Bush W, Clinton and Kennedy net gained seats when they were above 50 percent

[MATTROSE94]

Easy pickup for Republicans. Nevada is the next Arkansas.

Arkansas is filled with backwoods, conservative Democrat-turned-Republicans who voted for Bill but not his wife. It's a largely white state with no highly populous urban centre (Little Rock isn't that big) and no signs of demographic/education/population change.

   Nevada has boomed in population (though the boom has slowed down), and the vast majority of the population resides in Clark County (Las Vegas), a rapidly growing (grew by over 40% from 2000 to 2010) Democratic stronghold. The state also has a large percentage of minorities, especially Hispanics, in the southern part of the state.

 In all fairness, Clark County isn't as liberal as Cook County, Illinois, or Fulton County, Georgia, and the population boom has slowed down, as well as a Hispanic exodus in some areas (South Texas, Southeast Florida) which carried into Nevada to a lesser extent, which is why it trended marginally more conservative (but still voted for Biden) in 2020.

 The best case scenario for the GOP in Nevada is winning - and if they do, it won't be by more than a couple of points, at the very most.

  There is no demographic/population shift that explains your theory of Nevada becoming like Arkansas. Nevada shifted marginally rightward from 2016 to 2020 - from 2.42% to 2.39% (and it voted for Bush in 2004 by 2.59%). Arkansas voted for Bush in 2004 by 9.76% to Romney in 2012 by 23.69% to 27.62% for Trump in 2020.

I would say that Adam Laxalt's best strategy to win is to try to cut back the Democratic margins in Clark and Washoe Counties and to turbocharge rural turnout. That should likely allow him to win by around 2 or 3%.

[sting in the rafters]

I'm gonna say Tilt D. Nevada is the Republican's Florida. Democrats will continue to just barely win statewide races even if years favorable to Republicans.

Nail on the head, and it's for precisely the same reason why Florida is more R-leaning than its fundamentals would lead one to believe:institutional strength. The Reid Machine and culinary/service unions have been crucial for the Democratic ground game in Nevada the same way the FL GOP is running circles around the FLDP's outdated party infrastructure.


Now, could the recent dispute in the Nevada Democratic Party throw a wrench into the works of the state party's recent success? Perhaps, especially if 2022 ends up being R-leaning. As it is? Tilt D.

[Schiff for Senate]

Easy pickup for Republicans. Nevada is the next Arkansas.

Arkansas is filled with backwoods, conservative Democrat-turned-Republicans who voted for Bill but not his wife. It's a largely white state with no highly populous urban centre (Little Rock isn't that big) and no signs of demographic/education/population change.

   Nevada has boomed in population (though the boom has slowed down), and the vast majority of the population resides in Clark County (Las Vegas), a rapidly growing (grew by over 40% from 2000 to 2010) Democratic stronghold. The state also has a large percentage of minorities, especially Hispanics, in the southern part of the state.

 In all fairness, Clark County isn't as liberal as Cook County, Illinois, or Fulton County, Georgia, and the population boom has slowed down, as well as a Hispanic exodus in some areas (South Texas, Southeast Florida) which carried into Nevada to a lesser extent, which is why it trended marginally more conservative (but still voted for Biden) in 2020.

 The best case scenario for the GOP in Nevada is winning - and if they do, it won't be by more than a couple of points, at the very most.

  There is no demographic/population shift that explains your theory of Nevada becoming like Arkansas. Nevada shifted marginally rightward from 2016 to 2020 - from 2.42% to 2.39% (and it voted for Bush in 2004 by 2.59%). Arkansas voted for Bush in 2004 by 9.76% to Romney in 2012 by 23.69% to 27.62% for Trump in 2020.

I would say that Adam Laxalt's best strategy to win is to try to cut back the Democratic margins in Clark and Washoe Counties and to turbocharge rural turnout. That should likely allow him to win by around 2 or 3%.

 Well, of course. If Laxalt did that he'd win by a decent amount. I'm not questioning that. But while it would be great for his campaign if that did happen, it's easier said than done, and what I'm questioning is whether Laxalt can do both at the same time. How can he appeal to both a large share of urban voter and, at the same time, rural voters? I think what Laxalt would need to do is pick one of them. If it were me, I would focus on Clark County in a heartbeat. Boosting rural turnout will mean he emphasizes his support for gun rights or something, and that will hurt him with urban voters. He should focus on the urban voters - even if he does 'turbocharge' rural voters, as you say, that will come at the cost of urban voters that may even offset whatever rural gains he achieves, since there's not much room for him to grow in places like North Nevada without making some bold statement that costs him the election. Any winning candidate in NV must focus on Clark County, home to over 7/10 of the state population (Biden won in Nevada carrying just 2 of 17 counties, including Clark, which he carried by less than 10%). Clark County is no Democratic stronghold, but it is blue leaning, and if Laxalt focuses his campaign resources there, he may be able to keep the Democrats under 50% in Clark County, or possibly even carry it (depending on how good a year for the GOP 2022 turns out to be), and in that case, he won't need to worry about a handful of voters in Esmerelda County (population 873), because he'll have performed well with a large segment of voters in Clark County (population 2.3 million). The GOP can win without Clark, as long as they keep the Democratic margin there low - but the Democrats' math is impossible to work without Clark (though they can easily win even if they lose Esmerelda County by 70 points, which is the best case scenario for the GOP of what the result would look like if Laxalt burned his campaign resources there), so Laxalt should focus solely on Clark. If you ask me, he should focus exclusively on Clark and given only token, if any, visits to the other 16 counties, instead of wasting time campaign in random GOP stronghold counties with a few thousand people, like Humboldt County.

[MATTROSE94]

Easy pickup for Republicans. Nevada is the next Arkansas.

Arkansas is filled with backwoods, conservative Democrat-turned-Republicans who voted for Bill but not his wife. It's a largely white state with no highly populous urban centre (Little Rock isn't that big) and no signs of demographic/education/population change.

   Nevada has boomed in population (though the boom has slowed down), and the vast majority of the population resides in Clark County (Las Vegas), a rapidly growing (grew by over 40% from 2000 to 2010) Democratic stronghold. The state also has a large percentage of minorities, especially Hispanics, in the southern part of the state.

 In all fairness, Clark County isn't as liberal as Cook County, Illinois, or Fulton County, Georgia, and the population boom has slowed down, as well as a Hispanic exodus in some areas (South Texas, Southeast Florida) which carried into Nevada to a lesser extent, which is why it trended marginally more conservative (but still voted for Biden) in 2020.

 The best case scenario for the GOP in Nevada is winning - and if they do, it won't be by more than a couple of points, at the very most.

  There is no demographic/population shift that explains your theory of Nevada becoming like Arkansas. Nevada shifted marginally rightward from 2016 to 2020 - from 2.42% to 2.39% (and it voted for Bush in 2004 by 2.59%). Arkansas voted for Bush in 2004 by 9.76% to Romney in 2012 by 23.69% to 27.62% for Trump in 2020.

I would say that Adam Laxalt's best strategy to win is to try to cut back the Democratic margins in Clark and Washoe Counties and to turbocharge rural turnout. That should likely allow him to win by around 2 or 3%.

 Well, of course. If Laxalt did that he'd win by a decent amount. I'm not questioning that. But while it would be great for his campaign if that did happen, it's easier said than done, and what I'm questioning is whether Laxalt can do both at the same time. How can he appeal to both a large share of urban voter and, at the same time, rural voters? I think what Laxalt would need to do is pick one of them. If it were me, I would focus on Clark County in a heartbeat. Boosting rural turnout will mean he emphasizes his support for gun rights or something, and that will hurt him with urban voters. He should focus on the urban voters - even if he does 'turbocharge' rural voters, as you say, that will come at the cost of urban voters that may even offset whatever rural gains he achieves, since there's not much room for him to grow in places like North Nevada without making some bold statement that costs him the election. Any winning candidate in NV must focus on Clark County, home to over 7/10 of the state population (Biden won in Nevada carrying just 2 of 17 counties, including Clark, which he carried by less than 10%). Clark County is no Democratic stronghold, but it is blue leaning, and if Laxalt focuses his campaign resources there, he may be able to keep the Democrats under 50% in Clark County, or possibly even carry it (depending on how good a year for the GOP 2022 turns out to be), and in that case, he won't need to worry about a handful of voters in Esmerelda County (population 873), because he'll have performed well with a large segment of voters in Clark County (population 2.3 million). The GOP can win without Clark, as long as they keep the Democratic margin there low - but the Democrats' math is impossible to work without Clark (though they can easily win even if they lose Esmerelda County by 70 points, which is the best case scenario for the GOP of what the result would look like if Laxalt burned his campaign resources there), so Laxalt should focus solely on Clark. If you ask me, he should focus exclusively on Clark and given only token, if any, visits to the other 16 counties, instead of wasting time campaign in random GOP stronghold counties with a few thousand people, like Humboldt County.

I agree. I think that focusing on cutting Democratic margins in urban areas by appealing to working class African American and Hispanic voters is the best path forward for the Republicans going forward. Adam Laxalt seems like the kind of candidate who could do that, though his strong support for QAnon and the Stop the Steal movement could be a liability for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt didn't even win the Gov race that he was supposed to win 2018 he is a retread with Proufmd Boyz behind him now, and it wasn't known back in 2018

Lean D

[MATTROSE94]

Laxalt didn't even win the Gov race that he was supposed to win 2018 he is a retread with Proufmd Boyz behind him now, and it wasn't known back in 2018

Lean D

I never expected Adam Laxalt to win in 2018. If anything, he did better than I though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was leading in polls like Dean Heller was in 2018

[MATTROSE94]

He was leading in polls like Dean Heller was in 2018

I was thinking at the time that Adam Laxalt was going to lose by about 5-8% due to the fact that I felt Nevada was a pretty solid Democratic state back in 2018. Nevada really surprised me in 2020 and is a great Republican pickup opportunity in 2022 and 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There hasn't been any polls showing Laxalt ahead of CCM