Sam Spade's Final (see p.5) Gubernatorial prediction thread...

[Moooooo]

Any new thoughts on Maryland?  The Gallup poll seemed a little off at first (53-41 O'Malley), but it seems to have been somewhat validated by the new Rasmussen poll (53-45 O'Malley).  Obviously not enough of a lead to warrant a 'likely-d' designation, but do you think the race has solidified or is there still room and time for Ehrlich to make a comeback?

[Sam Spade]

Any new thoughts on Maryland?  The Gallup poll seemed a little off at first (53-41 O'Malley), but it seems to have been somewhat validated by the new Rasmussen poll (53-45 O'Malley).  Obviously not enough of a lead to warrant a 'likely-d' designation, but do you think the race has solidified or is there still room and time for Ehrlich to make a comeback?

Of course there is time to make a comeback, but my gut tells me that the national landscape may make it next to impossible.

[Nym90]

Sam, do you have any thoughts on why Michigan is drifting Dem? Is it just the national environment finally catching up with Devos? I know initially you saw Michigan as being a state that would be immune to a national wave or even possibly have a backlash wave against the Dems, but that seems to have subsided.

I'd personally say that the above is happening; I think the bottom line is simply that although Granholm is unpopular, a Republican isn't going to win in Michigan in 2006 in this environment, especially someone like Devos who pretty much fits the stereotype of a Republican to a tee in most people's eyes. He's simply way too conservative to be able to win in a Democratic leaning state in a Democratic year.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, do you have any thoughts on why Michigan is drifting Dem? Is it just the national environment finally catching up with Devos? I know initially you saw Michigan as being a state that would be immune to a national wave or even possibly have a backlash wave against the Dems, but that seems to have subsided.

I'd personally say that the above is happening; I think the bottom line is simply that although Granholm is unpopular, a Republican isn't going to win in Michigan in 2006 in this environment, especially someone like Devos who pretty much fits the stereotype of a Republican to a tee in most people's eyes. He's simply way too conservative to be able to win in a Democratic leaning state in a Democratic year.

People may have simply taken a good, hard look at Devos, didn't like him and tossed him back.  This does happen. 

Although it is possible the national environment may have had an effect, I would be careful not to read too much nationally into governor's races at this time, except concerning turnout issues (and various state issues also).

For House and Senate races, read into national moods as much as you want to. 

[Sam Spade]

New Governor predictions.  Not much change right now.

Likely D
Arkansas (R)*
Kansas
Massachusetts (R)*

Lean D
Illinois
Maine
Maryland (R)
Michigan
Oregon
Wisconsin

Toss-up
Iowa (D)* - perhaps a slight turn towards Culver...
Minnesota (R) - I know what the Star-Tribune says.  Will a real polling company please poll the race?

Lean R
Nevada*
Rhode Island
South Carolina - on the cusp, as always

Likely R
Alaska
California
Florida*
Texas

Safe R
Alabama
Connecticut
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota
Vermont

Present prediction (As of October 22, 2006)

Democratic gains
Arkansas
Colorado
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Ohio

Republican gains
None

Total changes:
+6 Dems, 28D, 22R total

[Sam Spade]

I'm going to update this thread on Sunday.  Per what I said earlier in the year, I'm taking races that I think are (fundamentally) off the table.  If I have doubts, they will probably stay on.  If I think there is less of a chance of winning than the polls indicate, you will see me note this.  If I think the race is flexible and could do a lot of tightening up, you will see a closer designation.  I will most likely opt for the more competitive ranking, overall.  There will be very little difference between my predictions and the rankings.

The overall polling numbers you might expect are: 
Within MOE = tossup (with Leans indicated)
Outside MOE to about 8%-9% = Lean D or R
8%-9% to about 12% or so (this will be a little more flexible = Likely R
All other races = Safe R

In short, I want my rankings from now on in to look as close to as how I think it'll all come down.

[MasterJedi]

Chris Bell says he has momentum.

So? Anybody can say they have momentum, it doesn't mean they'll win though.

[Sam Spade]

The big change is clearly Idaho, but I only saw the movement in other horserace trackers after my last post, otherwise I would have moved it to Likely.  Now, I think it's smart to play it safe and move it Toss-up (Lean R) based on M-D's polling

Governor

Safe D
Arizona
Arkansas (R)* (from Likely D to Safe D) - I am simply assuming Rasmussen is an outlier.
Colorado (R)*
Kansas (from Likely D to Safe D) - Nothing much has changed here.
Massachusetts (R)* (from Likely D to Safe D) - It's over with, Walter...
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely D
Illinois (from Lean D to Likely D) - This is kinda like the Texas for Republicans.  A race they should win, but don't have the candidates to do so.  The unsurety of my call lies in the great number of people going third-party.

Lean D
Michigan - On the edge of Lean and Likely, I'm putting it here.
Oregon - Saxton has the money and the bad Kulongoski ratings, but is not using it to good use.  I'm placing it lower because voting has already started.
Wisconsin - Republicans usually poll higher in WI than the final numbers, so it stays here.
Maryland (R) - I think this call is the smart one, regardless of the variety in polling.
Maine - A lot of people going third-party, but this is common in Maine.  Lack of decent polling makes me place it higher than Maryland, but an argument can be made for a lower placement on the list.
Iowa* (from Toss-up to Lean D) - There's been a shift to Culver of late.  Race is still probably just outside or inside MOE, with a good bit of undecideds left.  In a Dem year, I say it leans Dem.

Toss-up (Lean D)
Minnesota (R) - Total tossup in normal years (we don't believe Star-Tribune in my world), lean Dem because of the state and not great GOP year.

Toss-up (Lean R)
Idaho* (R) (from Safe R to Toss-up, quite a late move) - Even with the popularity of Kempthorne, he was held to only 56% in 2002.  Anyway, when M-D says the race is close, I believe them.

Lean R
Nevada* - You would think Gibbons' scandal would hurt him, but it's hard for me to say the only recent poll by R2000 is more than MOE movement.
Alaska (from Likely D to Lean D) - There have been some defections among social conservatives and oil companies from Palin, so out of caution, back it goes.  The two polls showing it tied were utter crap polling, though.
Rhode Island - Close to Likely R now.  Carceri has pulled it together, it seems, though as usual, I don't trust RI polling.

Likely R
Vermont (from Safe R to Likely R) - On the heels of R2000's polling, this seems the better call.
Texas - Bell is gaining somewhat.  Won't matter, though.  It's here because of being careful, kinda like Illinois.
Florida* - In FL, I believe M-D and only M-D.  It's only here because I have to give the other polls some leeway.

Safe R
Alabama
California (from Likely R to Safe R) - Arnie's safe.  Actually, it is not that McClintock could be pulled through.  Even if the Dems won the Senate, jfern would probably still go nuts over that.
Connecticut
Georgia
Hawaii
Nebraska
South Carolina (from Lean R to Safe R) - The one poll Quincy posted is utter crap, but the succession of Raz and SUSA is pretty convincing to me.
South Dakota

Present prediction (As of October 29, 2006)

Democratic gains
Arkansas
Colorado
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New York
Ohio

Republican gains
None

Total changes:
+7 Dems, 29D, 21R total

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California (from Likely R to Safe R) - Arnie's safe.  Actually, it is not that McClintock could be pulled through.  Even if the Dems won the Senate, jfern would probably still go nuts over that.

Why? I prefer McClintock to Arnold. The main difference is that Arnold hides his wingnuttyness.

[Sam Spade]

California (from Likely R to Safe R) - Arnie's safe.  Actually, it is not that McClintock could be pulled through.  Even if the Dems won the Senate, jfern would probably still go nuts over that.

Why? I prefer McClintock to Arnold. The main difference is that Arnold hides his wingnuttyness.

Fine, fernie.  I withdraw that remark. 

[MAS117]

Alaska (from Likely D to Lean D) - There have been some defections among social conservatives and oil companies from Palin, so out of caution, back it goes.  The two polls showing it tied were utter crap polling, though.

I think you mean Likely R to Lean R. Just letting you know Sam.

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS - GOVERNOR
Safe D
Arizona Napolitano (D) 60, Munsil (R) 38, Other 2
Arkansas (R)* Beebe (D) 56, Hutchinson (R) 43, Other 1
Colorado (R)* Ritter (D) 57, Beauprez (R) 40, Other 3
Kansas Sebelius (D) 56, Barnett (R) 42, Other 2
Massachusetts (R)* Patrick (D) 54, Healey (R) 35, Mihos (I) 10, Other 1
New Hampshire Lynch (D) 72, Coburn (R) 26, Other 2
New Mexico Richardson (D) 64, Dendahl (R) 34, Other 2
New York (R)* Spitzer (D) 73, Faso (R) 25, Other 2
Ohio (R)* Strickland (D) 60, Blackwell (R) 39, Other 1
Oklahoma Henry (D) 64, Istook (R) 34, Other 2
Pennsylvania Rendell (D) 60, Swann (R) 39, Other 1
Tennessee Bredesen(D) 66, Bryson (R) 33, Other 1
Wyoming Freundethal (D) 63, Hunkins (R) 34, Other 3

Likely D
None

Lean D
Michigan Granholm (D) 53, DeVos (R) 46, Other 1
Oregon Kulongoski (D) 52, Saxton (R) 45, Other 3
Wisconsin Doyle (D) 52, Green (R) 46, Other 2
Maine Baldacci (D) 38, Woodcock (R) 33, Merrill (I) 20, LaMarche (G) 10, Other 1
Illinois Blagojevich (D) 46, Topinka (R) 41, Whitney (G) 11, Other 2
Iowa* Culver (D) 52, Nussle (R) 47, Other 1

Toss-up (Lean D)
Minnesota (R) Pawlenty (R) 46.8, Hatch (D) 46.3, Hutchinson (I) 5.6, Other 1.3

Toss-up (Pure)
Maryland (R) Ehrlich (R) 49.6, O’Malley (D) 49.2, Other 1.2

Toss-up (Lean R)
Nevada (R)* Gibbons (R) 49.8, Titus (D) 47.4, Other 2.8
Idaho (R)* Brady (D) 48.8, Otter (R) 47.7, Other 3.5

Lean R
Alaska* Palin (R) 49, Knowles (D) 45, Other 6
Florida* Crist (R) 53, Davis (D) 46, Other 1
Rhode Island Carcieri (R) 53, Fogarty (D) 45, Other 2

Likely R
Vermont Douglas (R) 52, Parker (D) 44, Other 4

Safe R
Alabama Riley (R) 57, Baxley (D) 42, Other 1
California Schwarzenegger (R) 54, Angelides (D) 42, Other 4
Connecticut Rell (R) 60, DiStefano (D) 38, Other 2
Georgia Perdue (R) 55, Taylor (D) 38, Hayes (L) 5, Other 2
Hawaii Lingle (R) 62, Iwase (D) 36, Other 2
Nebraska Heineman (R) 72, Hahn (D) 26, Other 2
South Carolina Sanford (R) 57, Moore (D) 42, Other 1
South Dakota Rounds (R) 59, Billion (D) 39, Other 2
Texas Perry (R) 39, Bell (D) 25, Strayhorn (I) 21, Friedman (I) 13, Other 2
2006 Governorships
+6 Dems 28D-22R

[Alcon]

I don't think we have a single significant disagreement, here.

[Sam Spade]

I don't think we have a single significant disagreement, here.

In the Lean/Likely columns, there are a few races that could surprise.

Illinois (There are signs Topinka is gaining and the Cook County players are getting tired of Blago)
Maine (The surge of Merrill could make the result very weird)
Alaska (Unsure about this one, frankly.  Could be more or less).
Vermont (Douglas under 50, back to the Vermont State Leg like in 2000)

My gut tells me that Michigan will be closer than my numbers are saying, but I'm not going with it here.

[Sam Spade]

More comments or criticisms are welcome.  I am happy to discuss how I get to my conclusions any place any time. 

[Moooooo]

You're wrong on MD.  I wont leave a stone unturned tomorrow, we're going to win this thing.

[Sam Spade]

Predictions aside, Nick, I wish you the best of luck in your activities tomorrow within the campaign and outside the campaign and as always, "May the best man win." 

[Moooooo]

Predictions aside, Nick, I wish you the best of luck in your activities tomorrow within the campaign and outside the campaign and as always, "May the best man win." 

Thanks, Sam.  I seriously think we're going to win the gubernatorial race.  The feeling on the ground is great.  I know you're an analyst and try not let emotions get in the way, but I feel something in MD that the polls arent reflecting.  O'Malley will win.

See you guys on Wednesday because I'll be out all day tomorrow doing GOTV and then I'll be at the Hippodrome celebrating O'M victory.

[bgwah]

Toss-up (Lean R)
Nevada (R)* Gibbons (R) 49.8, Titus (D) 47.4, Other 2.8
Idaho (R)* Brady (D) 48.8, Otter (R) 47.7, Other 3.5


Should Idaho be in the Toss-up (Lean D) category if you have Brady ahead? Something similar with Minnesota. Maybe I just don't get it.

[Sam Spade]

Toss-up (Lean R)
Nevada (R)* Gibbons (R) 49.8, Titus (D) 47.4, Other 2.8
Idaho (R)* Brady (D) 48.8, Otter (R) 47.7, Other 3.5


Should Idaho be in the Toss-up (Lean D) category if you have Brady ahead?

Nope.  As I mentioned on the other thread, the Categories are indicative of where I think the abstract numbers are.

The numbers I posted and who wins the race are my "gut" predictions.  They are the ones that count.

[Rob]

Sam, any thoughts on why Brady is doing so well? It seems like Republican fatigue more than anything else.

This map is anticipating a narrow Brady win:



His victory would almost make up for a Tester loss. Almost.

[Sam Spade]

Brady did extremely well in 2002 also against Kempthorne and held him to 56%, even though Kempthorne was very popular.  There's no reason why he shouldn't do better against Otter, who, although well-liked, is not an inspiring figure.

Right now the Mountain West seems to be interested in experimenting with Dem governors.  My gut tells me that this interest will not extend to the House races and nationally other than Montana, though I could be wrong on this, especially if a wave occurs (whose chances are getting less in my mind)

[Alcon]

I know you can't, but it would help me sleep better if you explained to me how Sali and Otter are basically doing just as well as each other.

[Sam Spade]

I know you can't, but it would help me sleep better if you explained to me how Sali and Otter are basically doing just as well as each other.

Idaho is simply much more Republican on the national level rather than the state level these days.  That goes for a lot of states in the Mountain West.  It's the great "equalizer".

[AuH2O]

I think Florida will be closer.