BC municipal elections (Oct 15 - today!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Burnaby final results

Mayor: Mike Hurley, Ind. (acclaimed)

City council:
Burnaby Citizens Association: 6 seats (+1)
Greens: 1 seat (n/c)
ONE Burnaby: 1 seat (n/c)

The BCA continue their dominance in Burnaby politics. Mike Hillman, the lone One Burnaby councillor lost his seat (he was elected in a 2021 by-election), but former Liberal MLA Richard T. Lee won the lone seat for the party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It seems to me that the scale of Ken Sim's victory in  Vancouver is much larger than expected.  Is that right?  If so is that not a harbinger for the next BC general election and federal election?

As a general rule of thumb, municipal elections in Canada aren't indicative of federal and provincial trends. It may still be good news for the BC Liberals and federal Conservatives if they can capitalize on the "anti-establishment" mood of Vancouverites, but that has less to do with ideology and more to do with a general feeling of malaise.

But yes, Ken Sim's victory is larger than expected. Polls were tight (the last one literally had Sim and Kennedy tied), and from my reading, the media agreed with the consensus that it would be a close one (although the media has a clear incentive to push the narrative of a close race, so that's not always the best indicator)

Only the Researchco poll. The Mainstreet poll had Sim up 34-28 over Stewart with Hardwick at 18% and the Leger poll had Sim with 50% to 21% for Stewart and 21% for Hardwick. I believe all 3 polls showed somewhere around 40% undecided.  I think clearly what happened is the Hardwick supporters largely ended up voting for Ken Sim.

Okay, but my point still stands, only Leger showed Sim with 50% support, most others had him in the 30s. So it's fair to say that it was a larger victory than expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results in Richmond:

Malcolm Brodie (Ind) - 67.6% - incumbent
John Roston (RITE) - 27.0%

Council
RITE Richmond - 3 seats (+1)
ONE Richmond - 2 seats (n/c) (includes former BC Liberal candidate Alexa Loo)
Richmond Rise - 1 seat (+1) (former Liberal MLA Kash Heed)
Richmond Community Coalition - 1 seat (n/c)
Richmond United - 1 seat (n/c)
Richmond Citizens Association - 0 seats (-1) -  this is the NDP affiliated party

Pretty fractured council, but to be expected since no party ran a full slate.

[Benjamin Frank]

Final results in Richmond:

Malcolm Brodie (Ind) - 67.6% - incumbent
John Roston (RITE) - 27.0%

Council
RITE Richmond - 2 seats (n/c)
ONE Richmond - 2 seats (n/c) (includes former Liberal MLA Alexa Loo)
Richmond Rise - 2 seats (+2) (includes former Liberal MLA Kash Heed)
Richmond Community Coalition - 1 seat (n/c)
Richmond United - 1 seat (n/c)
Richmond Citizens Association - 0 seats (-1) -  this is the NDP affiliated party

Pretty fractured council, but to be expected since no party ran a full slate.

RITE won 3 seats, only Kash Heed won for Richmond Rise. Alexa Loo was never a Liberal MLA, but ran for them in 2020. (You might be familiar with her name because she is an Olympic Champion. Interstingly, another Olympian, Evan Dunfee, failed to win the last position on Richmond city council by 446 votes. I could be wrong, but I believe Alexa Loo also lost out her first time around, so Evan Dunfee might want to try again in four years, if the world still exists.)

If RITE hadn't run such a poor quality 4th candidate (since that seems to be the phrase used now to describe Republican U.S Senate candidates) in Jerome Dickey who expressed support for the 'extinction rebellion' illegal protests it can be easily speculated that RITE would have won 4 positions, or half the council.

Former long time city councilor Derek Dang (he ran against Malcolm Brodie for mayor in the byelection in 2001) ran with Kash Heed as the Richmond RISE 'slate' but narrowly lost to Kash Heed.

RITE stands for Richmond Independent Team of Electors.

I didn't know this until today, but ABC (or, as I call them, NPA 2.0) stands for A Better City. I had thought based on their ads that it didn't mean anything. Their adds simply ended with "Change in Vancouver. It's as easy as ABC" which I thought was pretty catchy.

[Benjamin Frank]

Is it unusual for this many mayors to be defeated?

I believe so.

I guess there must be higher than normal voter dissatisfaction then. Not entirely sure what caused it though...What was registered in the polls?

The usual things here and elsewhere probably, I think crime was a factor though not as big as the media makes it out to be, along with the high cost of living and housing. I think housing costs and lack of housing was the main factor, and not just in metro Vancouver, but also in the bigger cities in the Interior (Kelowna) and Vancouver Island (Langford and Saanich.)  Either along with that or conversly, the belief that growth/development has been too fast was a factor in Kelowna and Langford.

Full disclosure I know next to nothing about this type of local politics in a foreign province, so what I say next could be full BS.

Basically, the theory that I have seen going around is that there was an anti-incumbent mood cause nobody was perceived to be taking on the big problems of the time. its very likely that the local administrations do not have the tools to solve every one these big issues whatsoever, but they got the blame. If you take a step back, the politics of most Canadian and US cities right now can be distilled down to four issue 'categories.' These are: unequal poverty among minority groups who desire the dignity of integration, crime, housing or the lack of it (NIMBY vs YIMBY), and the occasional extremely local issue of a park or road or persons (LA...). All four are often linked in some fashion.

Basically, because the incumbents had a perception of not doing enough on every one of the four when it mattered, voters got angry with the whole local system and tried their best to throw out the bums whenever viable. Some causes of the issues, like inflation hurting lower-income groups more including minorities cannot be solved locally. Others, like housing, can be solved locally but not very fast so even movement on this front is unlikely to be rewarded quickly. In Vancouver, all four issue
 blocks were working in tandem in Sim's favor, and so he got elected by a large margin and got his allies elected with him.

I think this is true. Muncipal governments have the most impact on people, but they don't necessarily have the powers and they certainly don't have the resources. It certainly wouldn't be correct to say that municipal governments are nothing but figureheads, but on the main issues of concern, they can only get things done working with higher levels of government to address crime, transit and subsidized housing.

This is why in the Ontario municipal election thread I expressed surprise that Toronto mayor John Tory was still so popular after two terms. Big city mayors especially seem to have a shelf life of two terms, 8 years. After their first term, their greater name recognition seems to dwarf over their challengers as they haven't yet had the perception of problems piling up that they can't handle, but after a full two terms, they seem to have worn out their welcome and be regarded as failures.

We can look here in Canada and Gregor Robertson who was comfortably relected in 2011 (after three years) but in 2014, was only narrowly reelected for a third term after 6 years and Naheed Nenshi in Calgary who was reelected with something like 90% of the vote for a second term, but only narrowly won a third term. And those are the mayors who ran for a third term. In Toronto, mayor Mel Lastman won a second term in a landslide but would have been crushed had he tried for a third term (though his problems were more personal gaffes) and the same thing with his successor David Miller (his problems were mostly in the middle, not the normal municipal issues, but not personal gaffes either but a general municipal workers strike.)

An example of the decline in support during a big city mayor's second term I think is Sadiq Khan in London, England, where due to Covid, the mayoral election was delayed for a year. My understanding is that he would have won a landslide reelection if the election hadn't have been delayed, but by his fifth year, his support was beginning to decline considerably, and that wasn't due to Covid.

[adma]

This is why in the Ontario municipal election thread I expressed surprise that Toronto mayor John Tory was still so popular after two terms. Big city mayors especially seem to have a shelf life of two terms, 8 years. After their first term, their greater name recognition seems to dwarf over their challengers as they haven't yet had the perception of problems piling up that they can't handle, but after a full two terms, they seem to have worn out their welcome and be regarded as failures.

We can look here in Canada and Gregor Robertson who was comfortably relected in 2011 (after three years) but in 2014, was only narrowly reelected for a third term after 6 years and Naheed Nenshi in Calgary who was reelected with something like 90% of the vote for a second term, but only narrowly won a third term. And those are the mayors who ran for a third term. In Toronto, mayor Mel Lastman won a second term in a landslide but would have been crushed had he tried for a third term (though his problems were more personal gaffes) and the same thing with his successor David Miller (his problems were mostly in the middle, not the normal municipal issues, but not personal gaffes either but a general municipal workers strike.)

An example of the decline in support during a big city mayor's second term I think is Sadiq Khan in London, England, where due to Covid, the mayoral election was delayed for a year. My understanding is that he would have won a landslide reelection if the election hadn't have been delayed, but by his fifth year, his support was beginning to decline considerably, and that wasn't due to Covid.

Of course, you have to remember that the landslides in a lot of these cases were due to no truly viable opposition candidate--when Mel Lastman got his landslide, his main opposition was the grassroots-left-fringe activist Tooker Gomberg.  And John Tory's 2nd and 3rd elections have basically had "higher-operating Tookers" in the form of high-regarded urban planners as primary opposition.  It *might* be different if Toronto (and Ontario) had some form of "party politics" in its municipal elections, which'd incentivize voting for an opposition force--but it doesn't.

[Benjamin Frank]

This is why in the Ontario municipal election thread I expressed surprise that Toronto mayor John Tory was still so popular after two terms. Big city mayors especially seem to have a shelf life of two terms, 8 years. After their first term, their greater name recognition seems to dwarf over their challengers as they haven't yet had the perception of problems piling up that they can't handle, but after a full two terms, they seem to have worn out their welcome and be regarded as failures.

We can look here in Canada and Gregor Robertson who was comfortably relected in 2011 (after three years) but in 2014, was only narrowly reelected for a third term after 6 years and Naheed Nenshi in Calgary who was reelected with something like 90% of the vote for a second term, but only narrowly won a third term. And those are the mayors who ran for a third term. In Toronto, mayor Mel Lastman won a second term in a landslide but would have been crushed had he tried for a third term (though his problems were more personal gaffes) and the same thing with his successor David Miller (his problems were mostly in the middle, not the normal municipal issues, but not personal gaffes either but a general municipal workers strike.)

An example of the decline in support during a big city mayor's second term I think is Sadiq Khan in London, England, where due to Covid, the mayoral election was delayed for a year. My understanding is that he would have won a landslide reelection if the election hadn't have been delayed, but by his fifth year, his support was beginning to decline considerably, and that wasn't due to Covid.

Of course, you have to remember that the landslides in a lot of these cases were due to no truly viable opposition candidate--when Mel Lastman got his landslide, his main opposition was the grassroots-left-fringe activist Tooker Gomberg.  And John Tory's 2nd and 3rd elections have basically had "higher-operating Tookers" in the form of high-regarded urban planners as primary opposition.  It *might* be different if Toronto (and Ontario) had some form of "party politics" in its municipal elections, which'd incentivize voting for an opposition force--but it doesn't.

That's an interesting point. Of course, it can be argued that if ony fringe candidates challenge the incumbent, that most city residents don't have any problem with the incumbent, but certainly that need not be the case.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results in Richmond:

Malcolm Brodie (Ind) - 67.6% - incumbent
John Roston (RITE) - 27.0%

Council
RITE Richmond - 2 seats (n/c)
ONE Richmond - 2 seats (n/c) (includes former Liberal MLA Alexa Loo)
Richmond Rise - 2 seats (+2) (includes former Liberal MLA Kash Heed)
Richmond Community Coalition - 1 seat (n/c)
Richmond United - 1 seat (n/c)
Richmond Citizens Association - 0 seats (-1) -  this is the NDP affiliated party

Pretty fractured council, but to be expected since no party ran a full slate.

RITE won 3 seats, only Kash Heed won for Richmond Rise. Alexa Loo was never a Liberal MLA, but ran for them in 2020. (You might be familiar with her name because she is an Olympic Champion. Interstingly, another Olympian, Evan Dunfee, failed to win the last position on Richmond city council by 446 votes. I could be wrong, but I believe Alexa Loo also lost out her first time around, so Evan Dunfee might want to try again in four years, if the world still exists.)

If RITE hadn't run such a poor quality 4th candidate (since that seems to be the phrase used now to describe Republican U.S Senate candidates) in Jerome Dickey who expressed support for the 'extinction rebellion' illegal protests it can be easily speculated that RITE would have won 4 positions, or half the council.

Former long time city councilor Derek Dang (he ran against Malcolm Brodie for mayor in the byelection in 2001) ran with Kash Heed as the Richmond RISE 'slate' but narrowly lost to Kash Heed.

RITE stands for Richmond Independent Team of Electors.

I didn't know this until today, but ABC (or, as I call them, NPA 2.0) stands for A Better City. I had thought based on their ads that it didn't mean anything. Their adds simply ended with "Change in Vancouver. It's as easy as ABC" which I thought was pretty catchy.

Thanks. I've fixed the errors.

[adma]

That's an interesting point. Of course, it can be argued that if ony fringe candidates challenge the incumbent, that most city residents don't have any problem with the incumbent, but certainly that need not be the case.

But it could also be that potential viable challengers don't have *sufficient* problem w/an incumbent mayor to risk what could be a suicide run--and especially if they sit on council, they're satisfied w/providing checks-and-balances on *that* level, which'd be a safer bet.  (And it might not be so much that voters don't have a problem w/the incumbent, as that they haven't been *incentivized* into having a problem w/the incumbent.  But once somebody in the running steps up and points out "hey, there's a problem here", things can turn on a dime.)

And the free-for-all nature of municipal elections in Ontario is such where surprisingly strong results for "fringe" opposition (even if the "fringeyness" is nothing more than sparse infrastructure) can serve as barometric warnings for a safe incumbent (case in point, Art Eggleton in his last run in Toronto in '88, where Carolann Wright came out of nowhere as a progressive darling to get into the high teens, reducing Eggleton to a "weak" under 2/3 of the vote)

[Benjamin Frank]

CBC reporter Justin McElroy added another explanation for the vote: voters turning against divided city councils, or council/mayor tensions.

Justin McElroy would fit in well here as he has publicly admitted to being autistic with an obsession with data. His most fun activity is going over the minutae of municipal governments. He is a very high functioning autistic who has definitely found a niche for his obsessions.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-local-elections-wrapup-mcelroy-2022-1.6618326

"But more than that (crime), a thing unifying losing candidates was a propensity that they couldn't play well with others.

Stewart and Doug McCallum in Surrey were prominent examples of that, of course. But White Rock's Darryl Walker and the City of Langley's Val van den Broek, who frequently clashed with council, also went down to defeat.

Beyond Hope, many mayors that lost  — Williams Lake, Trail, Pouce Coupe and beyond — all got in hot water with council for one reason or another and failed to keep the confidence of voters. Ben Isitt, who used to be both the most popular and controversial councillor in Victoria, went down to defeat.

And consider the case of Maple Ridge: Mike Morden was elected mayor four years ago on a platform of law and order and cleaning up downtown, and crime went down in his community over the last four years.

But his majority also clashed with councillors who didn't agree with them, punished those who disagreed with them — and Morden went down to defeat, with Dan Ruimy and a team that downplayed crime and talked about consensus building coming to power."

I believe Bob Simpson in Quesnel was also a very divisive mayor, which is not surprising since he was tossed out of the B.C NDP caucus by Carole James.

The article also mentions the municipal police force/RCMP issue in Surrey. I suspect that the municipal police force is 'past the point of no return' and the provincial minister responsible, Mike Farnworth, will not allow Surrey to give up on it, but will allow some changes to be made to the present structure of this nascent police force.

I'm disappointed though I guess in the crush of data not surprised that nobody has mentioned the Vancouver Parks Board. The COPE/Green coalition got crushed and deservedly so for trying to turn Stanley Park into a park accessible only to people in the nearby neighborhood and to (athletic) bikers who live in Vancouver.  Stanley Park was designated by Lord Stanley as a world park accessible for everybody and certainly for everybody in Greater Vancouver.

The COPE/Green argument that cutting down on traffic into Stanley Park is necessary to deal with climate change is an insult to the intelligence of everybody. It might be a bit much of a stretch to say that this COPE/Green Parks Board coalition cost COPE city councilor Jean Swanson reelection, but it certainly didn't help her.

Finally, I don't know if it's me, or if it's the way people go, but I certainly have to admit that at nearly 52 years of age, I'm more satisfied with seeing personal grievences like this Parks Board get settled than I am with seeing potentially positive victories. It's certainly not something I like about myself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why the heck does a city of 600,000 people not have its own police force anyway? I can understand if there was some sort of Metro Vancouver police department, but relying on the RCMP?

[mileslunn]

Why the heck does a city of 600,000 people not have its own police force anyway? I can understand if there was some sort of Metro Vancouver police department, but relying on the RCMP?

I presume cost.  I know in Alberta big reason Alberta NDP opposed to an Alberta provincial police force is additional cost.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1582865899878772736?s=20&t=HLyA_1OdFOUM...

[xelas81]

Is Sim an NIMBY or YIMBY?
Quite interesting that 2/3 largest city in Canada have right-of-center-mayors (assuming that John Tory is reelected).

[Benjamin Frank]

Is Sim an NIMBY or YIMBY?
Quite interesting that 2/3 largest city in Canada have right-of-center-mayors (assuming that John Tory is reelected).

He ran as a NIMBY in 2018 (no development without 'community' approval) but ran as much more of a YIMBY in 2022, but as far as I know, he didnt really take a firm stance other than 'faster approvals from the city for development projects' and I don't know if he even backed down from his 2018 position.

I'm not sure how the 3 incumbent councilors on his slate voted on the Broadway Plan.

[Benjamin Frank]

I guess there is no need to start a thread for this. Anjali Appadurai has now been officially disqualified from the NDP leadership race meaning David Eby wins by acclamation.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/anjali-appadurai-disqualified-from-b-c-ndp-leadership-race

It's certainly not this bad for the NDP, but I always enjoyed this:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When does Horgan formally leave office?

[DL]

When does Horgan formally leave office?

Its not totally clear. If there had been a contested leadership the new leader would have been announced in early December and the handover would have been a few days after that. Now that Eby has been acclaimed, its more likely to be as soon as next week

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Huh. Horgan is the longest served NDP premier in the province's history.