Why did GA (specifically Atlanta) swing so hard Dem?

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

I remember that no one had this state on their radar as a blue or even a swing state before 2020, obviously while a lot of people predicted that it’d be close, no one expected it to flip over states like NC for example.

Even in 2012 Mitt did OK in the suburbs, but after 2016 and especially 2020, former R strongholds like Gwinett and Cobb swung heavily left, even many ruby R counties like Forysth and Cherokee swung D.

What are the main reasons for this shift? What happened to the Atlanta suburbs?

1) Was it just AA growth that caused this?

2) Or was it white liberal millennials who vote like 75-25 D?


3) Either way I don’t think “Orange Man Bad” explains this. “Orange Man Bad” would make sense in my current residence of Arizona, specifically Marciopa, where a lot of suburbanites are independent thinking and vote with the national environment, and don’t care for Trump’s personality.

The trends in Atlanta suburbs are TOTALLY different. Gwinett County went from a 33 point Bush victory in 2004 to a D+18 county in 2020. These two states imo are not comparable.

[Roll Roons]

A lot of it is massive demographic change. Henry is nearly 45% black, versus 37% in 2010. Gwinnett is majority-minority, and has had a lot of growth from Hispanic and Asian populations, in addition to blacks.

And yeah, if you'd told me the day before the election that Biden would win Georgia, I would have assumed that he also won Florida and North Carolina. But in hindsight the signs were there, and apparent months beforehand:
https://elections-daily.com/2020/01/03/the-gop-and-their-giant-peach-sized-problem-why-georgia-could-be-a-tipping-point-state-in-2020/
https://elections-daily.com/2020/04/06/a-case-study-on-purple-north-carolina-and-blue-georgia/

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I remember that no one had this state on their radar as a blue or even a swing state before 2020, obviously while a lot of people predicted that it’d be close, no one expected it to flip over states like NC for example.

Even in 2012 Mitt did OK in the suburbs, but after 2016 and especially 2020, former R strongholds like Gwinett and Cobb swung heavily left, even many ruby R counties like Forysth and Cherokee swung D.

What are the main reasons for this shift? What happened to the Atlanta suburbs?

1) Was it just AA growth that caused this?

2) Or was it white liberal millennials who vote like 75-25 D?


3) Either way I don’t think “Orange Man Bad” explains this. “Orange Man Bad” would make sense in my current residence of Arizona, specifically Marciopa, where a lot of suburbanites are independent thinking and vote with the national environment, and don’t care for Trump’s personality.

The trends in Atlanta suburbs are TOTALLY different. Gwinett County went from a 33 point Bush victory in 2004 to a D+18 county in 2020. These two states imo are not comparable.

Bush lost Elliot county KY by 40 points, and lost Buchanan county VA by 8 points , while winning Gwinnett County in 2004.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I remember that no one had this state on their radar as a blue or even a swing state before 2020, obviously while a lot of people predicted that it’d be close, no one expected it to flip over states like NC for example.

Even in 2012 Mitt did OK in the suburbs, but after 2016 and especially 2020, former R strongholds like Gwinett and Cobb swung heavily left, even many ruby R counties like Forysth and Cherokee swung D.

What are the main reasons for this shift? What happened to the Atlanta suburbs?

1) Was it just AA growth that caused this?

2) Or was it white liberal millennials who vote like 75-25 D?


3) Either way I don’t think “Orange Man Bad” explains this. “Orange Man Bad” would make sense in my current residence of Arizona, specifically Marciopa, where a lot of suburbanites are independent thinking and vote with the national environment, and don’t care for Trump’s personality.

The trends in Atlanta suburbs are TOTALLY different. Gwinett County went from a 33 point Bush victory in 2004 to a D+18 county in 2020. These two states imo are not comparable.

Bush lost Elliot county KY by 40 points, and lost Buchanan county VA by 8 points , while winning Gwinnett County in 2004.

It really is quite interesting what has transpired in Gwinett. In 2004 Bush won 160k votes and Kerry only 80k. In 2008 Obama grew the Dem vote by about a third. In 2016 the Dem vote tally, after being largely stagnant in 2012, grew by about a fifth, hence doubling since 2004, and then in 2020 Biden increased the Dem vote by about a third once again, to a whopping 240k, tripling it since 2004.
All while the GOP vote was stuck in the 145-165k range.

[Non Swing Voter]

48% of the board thought Biden would win.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407043.0

And it's almost entirely because of demographic change.  Specifically, the same reason places like Michigan are less Democratic is why Georgia is more Democratic.  Black people repopulating to the South from places like Detroit and Milwaukee. 

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

I remember that no one had this state on their radar as a blue or even a swing state before 2020, obviously while a lot of people predicted that it’d be close, no one expected it to flip over states like NC for example.

Even in 2012 Mitt did OK in the suburbs, but after 2016 and especially 2020, former R strongholds like Gwinett and Cobb swung heavily left, even many ruby R counties like Forysth and Cherokee swung D.

What are the main reasons for this shift? What happened to the Atlanta suburbs?

1) Was it just AA growth that caused this?

2) Or was it white liberal millennials who vote like 75-25 D?


3) Either way I don’t think “Orange Man Bad” explains this. “Orange Man Bad” would make sense in my current residence of Arizona, specifically Marciopa, where a lot of suburbanites are independent thinking and vote with the national environment, and don’t care for Trump’s personality.

The trends in Atlanta suburbs are TOTALLY different. Gwinett County went from a 33 point Bush victory in 2004 to a D+18 county in 2020. These two states imo are not comparable.

Bush lost Elliot county KY by 40 points, and lost Buchanan county VA by 8 points , while winning Gwinnett County in 2004.

Winning Gwinett by 32 too.

I have an Asian-American friend who was born and raised in Gwinett. He says that in 2004 when Dubya won it by 32, every house had a Bush-Cheney sign.

[Chips]

Demographic change.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

48% of the board thought Biden would win.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407043.0

Eh, that was the first thread I remember when more folks thought Biden would actually win Georgia. Opinion seemed to dramatically shift in those last 2 weeks when he actually held rallies there

[Podgy the Bear]

All of the above plus what Stacy Abrams was able to accomplish over the past few years to maximize minority turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

48% of the board thought Biden would win.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407043.0

Eh, that was the first thread I remember when more folks thought Biden would actually win Georgia. Opinion seemed to dramatically shift in those last 2 weeks when he actually held rallies there

There are a lot of threads from 2 or 3 years ago saying Georgia would be a tossup and "surprisingly" vote to the left of North Carolina.  It's not like this "swing" was unpredictable given that it's been trending slowly but surely for years, just like Virginia was before it flipped and then never flipped back.

[Non Swing Voter]

All of the above plus what Stacy Abrams was able to accomplish over the past few years to maximize minority turnout.

The GOP hates her because they're afraid of her.  They absolutely know that Georgia is going to be the most critical state for the next ten years. 

[Skill and Chance]

1. The Atlanta suburban white vote was still anomalously R in 2016 and had a lot of give left in it
2. The minority population of Atlanta is overwhelmingly black and minimally Hispanic, in a way that stands out vs. other Sunbelt cities (so the big pro-Trump trend with the latter group didn't register)
3. Less retiree/resort influence than the rest of the South (retirees who want beaches can go to FL and retirees who want mountains can go to TN, both of which border GA and have no income tax)
4. Minimal manufacturing and energy employment
5. Film industry influence in Atlanta

[Non Swing Voter]

1. The Atlanta suburban white vote was still anomalously R in 2016 and had a lot of give left in it
2. The minority population of Atlanta is overwhelmingly black and minimally Hispanic, in a way that stands out vs. other Sunbelt cities (so the big pro-Trump trend with the latter group didn't register)
3. Less retiree/resort influence than the rest of the South (retirees who want beaches can go to FL and retirees who want mountains can go to TN, both of which border GA and have no income tax)
4. Minimal manufacturing and energy employment
5. Film industry influence in Atlanta

I think that was actually a double whammy for Republicans because a lot of white GA retirees end up moving to Florida.  So no old white boomers coming in but lots of old white boomers going out.  We have the same phenomenon in Virginia.

[MarkD]

I give all of the credit to Stacey Abrams and her Fair Fight Action organization.

[sting in the rafters]

The conventional wisdom is for Ds to win in GA they need 30% of the electorate to be black and 30% of the white vote. That's how they won in 1992, that's why they flipped the Senate and electoral votes there in 2020. Obviously where that 30% white vote came from could not be more different, though the basic math holds.

[pppolitics]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-georgia-turned-blue/

[Schiff for Senate]

Atlanta shifted Demcratic the same reason all suburban areas have done so in the last few decades -
  1.) Demographic shift benefitting the Democrats. Douglas County, GA, was 18.5% African-American at the 2000 Census, and by 2010, it was 39.5% African-American. (Douglas gave George W. Bush over 60% but gave Obama a majority. By 2016, 53.7% of voters voted for Hillary Clinton. And in 2020, 62.0% voted for Joe Biden.)
  2.) Suburbs liberalizing generally on social issues. That was masked in 2008 because McCain lost in a landslide, and in 2012 because Mitt Romney was the perfect suburban candidate (a moderate businessman) - but in 2016 and 2020, Trump proved it (although some of it was due to #3).
  3.) Suburban backlash to Trump and Trumpian rhetoric - Georgia's 6th District voted for Romney in 2012 by 23%; Trump in 2016 by 1.5% and Biden in 2020 by 12%.

The same factors apply for the Indianapolis, Detroit, Twin Cities, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Houston, Denver and Dallas/Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St. Louis and Cincinatti.