NM-01 - RRH Elections: Stansbury +16

[VAR]

May 18-21, 555 LV

49% Melanie Stansbury (D)
33% Mark Moores (R)
5% Aubrey Dunn (I)
3% Chris Manning (L)
9% Undecided

And a hypothetical 2022 rematch between MLG and Steve Pearce:
52% Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
37% Steve Pearce
11% Undecided

Biden approval: 58/39 (+19)

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/05/24/rrh-elections-nm-1-congressional-poll-stansbury-d-leads-moores-r-49-33/

[Pollster]

A big red flag in this poll is that it looks like they recruited respondents from the entire state and asked in the first question if they live in the district. Possible that a not-insignificant number of people from outside the district were screened in and included in the sample.

[UncleSam]

Strong poll for Stansbury, guess the hand-wringing over a potential embarrassingly small win was unjustified.

[Woody]

Toss-up.

[2016]

Strong poll for Stansbury, guess the hand-wringing over a potential embarrassingly small win was unjustified.

Moores is running on an Anti-Trump Platform just like Wood did in the Open TX-6 Special Primary. Those things don't fly with the MAGA Republican Party. Wood got 3 %. Hope Moores gets 0 %.
Bad Judgement not holding a GOP Primary here.

[MT Treasurer]

Strong poll for Stansbury, guess the hand-wringing over a potential embarrassingly small win was unjustified.

This is a district with a very reliable, liberal Democratic base in which Biden beat Trump by 23 points and outperformed even Obama 2008. Regardless of how accurate this poll is, this race was never going to be particularly close. Concerns about any 'surprising closeness' were mostly just Democrats downplaying expectations/the fundamentals of this district and Republicans falling for it.

[Pink Panther]

Strong poll for Stansbury, guess the hand-wringing over a potential embarrassingly small win was unjustified.

Moores is running on an Anti-Trump Platform just like Wood did in the Open TX-6 Special Primary. Those things don't fly with the MAGA Republican Party. Wood got 3 %. Hope Moores gets 0 %.
Bad Judgement not holding a GOP Primary here.

I understand he can't anger his base, but he can't exactly go full-MAGA in a Biden +23 district, even in a Special Election.

[SnowLabrador]

Polling shmolling. Stansbury is probably only up high single digits.

[Roll Roons]

Strong poll for Stansbury, guess the hand-wringing over a potential embarrassingly small win was unjustified.

Moores is running on an Anti-Trump Platform just like Wood did in the Open TX-6 Special Primary. Those things don't fly with the MAGA Republican Party. Wood got 3 %. Hope Moores gets 0 %.
Bad Judgement not holding a GOP Primary here.

I understand he can't anger his base, but he can't exactly go full-MAGA in a Biden +23 district, even in a Special Election.

Also I don't think he's running an explicitly anti-Trump campaign.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Toss-up.

If Stansbury wins, will you leave the forum for a year?

[MT Treasurer]

Toss-up.

If Stansbury wins, will you leave the forum for a year?

"Let’s stick it to SirWoodbury by giving him the attention he so revels in."

"Let’s also remind SirWoodbury of his pledge to leave the forum, a promise which was never serious and therefore never going to be kept, and show him just how much he riles me up. That will show him for sure!"

- red avatar logic

[Xing]

Yeah, Safe D, though the margin might be more underwhelming than this. Even if Stansbury does do this well or slightly better, Democrats shouldn't get cocky, though.

[wbrocks67]

Biden approval looks about where it should be, so seems to add up

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Toss-up.

If Stansbury wins, will you leave the forum for a year?

"Let’s stick it to SirWoodbury by giving him the attention he so revels in."

"Let’s also remind SirWoodbury of his pledge to leave the forum, a promise which was never serious and therefore never going to be kept, and show him just how much he riles me up. That will show him for sure!"

- red avatar logic

I'll have you know that actually I'm just trying for the dopamine rush of easy recommends because my life is empty and my ennui is stifling.

[Vosem]

Good poll for Democrats. I had previously cited Stansbury+13 as the cut-off (if GOP is doing better, NM-1 is a good result for Republicans, while worse than that is a good result for Democrats), so this is a pretty good poll for Democrats.

The fact that it's exactly the same as the 2020 result implies there hasn't really been any decline in Democratic fortunes since the 2020 election (which corresponds to a GCB of D+3). Still probably translates to Republicans gaining the House and Senate, but not necessarily (especially in the latter case), and Biden is doing quite well if there's still no backlash.

[ElectionsGuy]

You guys are just setting yourselves up for egg on the face replies later. House polls have sucked for a long time now and you're just giving people like me more ammo to use against you.

Biden's approval in this poll is actually worse than the margin he was elected with here, so I don't understand how that's good for Democrats overall. But maybe the poll is actually underestimating the margin.

[wbrocks67]

You guys are just setting yourselves up for egg on the face replies later. House polls have sucked for a long time now and you're just giving people like me more ammo to use against you.

Biden's approval in this poll is actually worse than the margin he was elected with here, so I don't understand how that's good for Democrats overall. But maybe the poll is actually underestimating the margin.

House polls have generally been decent when Trump is not on the ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You guys are just setting yourselves up for egg on the face replies later. House polls have sucked for a long time now and you're just giving people like me more ammo to use against you.

Biden's approval in this poll is actually worse than the margin he was elected with here, so I don't understand how that's good for Democrats overall. But maybe the poll is actually underestimating the margin.

I don't know why he is all of a sudden a Doomer

[Horus]

Safe D.

[Chips]

Yeah Stansbury should win this I feel. I think talk about Moores potentially pulling an upset has died down. I still wouldn't completely rule out the possibility but it seems as though Stansbury has the clear advantage. I don't think she'll win by quite as big a margin as this poll states but an 11-12 point win wouldn't surprise me.

[Dr. Arch]

Polling shmolling. Stansbury is probably only up high single digits.

Erm...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polling shmolling. Stansbury is probably only up high single digits.

Erm...

SnowLabrador’s only personality trait is dooming about the Democratic Party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador repeatly say there are no jobs, but there are plenty of blue collar jobs there aren't many white collar jobs except for Nursing and Factory work, even Law work and Public Defenders have changed to Bankruptcy and Debt Consolidation again, you can get a job as a Lawyer working in Bankruptcy easily but other fields are duds

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

You guys are just setting yourselves up for egg on the face replies later. House polls have sucked for a long time now and you're just giving people like me more ammo to use against you.

lmfao

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You guys are just setting yourselves up for egg on the face replies later. House polls have sucked for a long time now and you're just giving people like me more ammo to use against you.

lmfao

Yep, Rassy polls have it 50/48, 52/48 Biden Approvals, we have egg on our face since Biden isn't at 60%