NE-SEN 2024: Independent's Day?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

They said don't believe MT and NE polls until the end

[Joe Biden 2028]

So if Osborn does win, what does the senate look like? Does he support a confidence and supply agreement with Democrats?

[CentristRepublican]

https://twitter.com/DebforNebraska/status/1851666442904613192?s=19
Pro-Osborn superpac went rogue and really put the 'independent' in "Independent Expenditure Committee" to create problems for the candidate they're supporting.

Goddamnit, I actually think this could actually hurt him.

these stupid fundraising texts. They're always goddamn counterproductive aren't they

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/DebforNebraska/status/1851666442904613192?s=19
Pro-Osborn superpac went rogue and really put the 'independent' in "Independent Expenditure Committee" to create problems for the candidate they're supporting.

Goddamnit, I actually think this could actually hurt him.

these stupid fundraising texts. They're always goddamn counterproductive aren't they

This was dumb and had me worried, but not only is this late, after Osborn clarified not only that he wouldn't caucus but how it'd work, and with this message going around a while (meaning he had time to prepare), Dan did damage control.

[Roll Roons]

If he’s refusing to caucus with either party, how will he actually function as a Senator? You need to caucus with a party to get committee assignments.

[Compuzled_One]

If he’s refusing to caucus with either party, how will he actually function as a Senator? You need to caucus with a party to get committee assignments.

Osborn is claiming all Senators are entitled to two committees per Senate rules. I haven't found if that's actually true or not.

[NYDem]

https://twitter.com/fthnr200004/status/1846353293616074796

I hadn't really bought into the Osborn hype, but this convinced me. Fischer is cooked, Safe Osborn imo.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1851963568146600055

[somco]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1851963568146600055

Hm, yeah, that's the wrong "NE" that the Fischer campaign is using

[Oryxslayer]

I guess I'll be the one to say it: The moment the Selzer poll dropped everyone (yes, also me) seemed to finally understand why this is a race. Selzer could be off, and Osborn can absolutely still lose, but suddenly things seem to start clicking on how there is a path to an Indie win in this era of higher polarization.

[somco]

I guess I'll be the one to say it: The moment the Selzer poll dropped everyone (yes, also me) seemed to finally understand why this is a race. Selzer could be off, and Osborn can absolutely still lose, but suddenly things seem to start clicking on how there is a path to an Indie win in this era of higher polarization.

yeah, no idea if Osborn can win it, but I am way more confident that this is an actual race (and that the one Kansas presidential poll was kinda real) post-Selzer. Republicans seem uniquely vulnerable in this region of the country right now

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1851963568146600055

This is one of the things I wish got more pushback. Many Conservatives use idealistic nostalgia as a form of grievance politics and will post photos of idealistic suburbs and small towns - except like 90% of the time said community is actually Dem-leaning (or at least getting rapidly bluer), and very often in a blue state as well.

I'm sorry but where are all these idealistic Republican areas? Parts of NY and CA suck, but very few would voluntarily choose to live in rural Mississippi or West Virginia.

[Cowboys for Christ]

Osborn gave an excellent performance, given how everything else turned out.

He will not run against Ricketts in 2026. No-one wants to be on the receiving end of that kind of obscene spending advantage, despite Ricketts perhaps being a better caricature of the kind of politician Osborn heavily attacked.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just as a FYI, if Osborn had won, my plan was to change this thread title to "The I's Have It".

[CentristRepublican]

Osborn gave an excellent performance, given how everything else turned out.

He will not run against Ricketts in 2026. No-one wants to be on the receiving end of that kind of obscene spending advantage, despite Ricketts perhaps being a better caricature of the kind of politician Osborn heavily attacked.

Honestly, if it had been a blue wave instead of a red wave, or even just Harris outperforming Biden 2020 by 1-2 points, he'd have won.

8 pts in and of itself is disappointing, but yes, in the grand scheme of things and what a bloodbath the election proved to be, it could have been much more crushing a margin.

[Mr. Smith]

Would never have imagined this would end up the tipping point.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1851963568146600055

This is one of the things I wish got more pushback. Many Conservatives use idealistic nostalgia as a form of grievance politics and will post photos of idealistic suburbs and small towns - except like 90% of the time said community is actually Dem-leaning (or at least getting rapidly bluer), and very often in a blue state as well.

I'm sorry but where are all these idealistic Republican areas? Parts of NY and CA suck, but very few would voluntarily choose to live in rural Mississippi or West Virginia.

Lol, I never saw this one. That is so clearly not Nebraska.

The irony is that Nebraska small towns are absolute sh-tholes, many of which have a lot more in common with places like West Virginia or Mississippi than you might think.

[Calgacus]

Despite falling short I'd say this still demonstrates the potential for the major parties to strategically drop out in unwinnable states in favour of independent or third party candidates.

[Atlas Force]

I'm sorry but where are all these idealistic Republican areas?

…Utah?

Despite falling short I'd say this still demonstrates the potential for the major parties to strategically drop out in unwinnable states in favour of independent or third party candidates.

Yeah this strategy is 100% getting tried again in 2026

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1854362828431311192

[vbfox]

I'm imaging a lab-grown Frankenstein independent candidate of all the good things Dems, moderates, and Trumpism can win a heavy GOP state like MO. Someone like Osborne who will help Trump build the wall and save your guns and at the same time oppose stringent abortion bans and frame expanding Medicaid as a way to build your rural hospitals back up. Oh and they fixed the damn roads.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm sorry but where are all these idealistic Republican areas?

…Utah?

Utah is like the one remaining red state not controlled by MAGA Republicans and it’s rapidly zooming left. Might end up being the only state to shift left Presidnetially this cycle (alongside possibly WA)

[MT Treasurer]

The problem with trying the Osborn (fake) "independent" strategy in blue/red states is that it works best when the incumbent/other party sleeps on it and when it isn’t overdone. The more you use it, the more predictable it becomes. Osborn benefited from the surprise effect, as no one anticipated his challenge, and even he ended up going the way of Gross/Orman/... . It’s going to be very hard to replicate that in 2026 when everyone knows Democrats will have to target deep red states for the majority.

This was Schumer being smart as ever, but he’s already played that ace.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

The problem with trying the Osborn (fake) "independent" strategy in blue/red states is that it works best when the incumbent/other party sleeps on it and when it isn’t overdone. The more you use it, the more predictable it becomes. Osborn benefited from the surprise effect, as no one anticipated his challenge, and even he ended up going the way of Gross/Orman/... . It’s going to be very hard to replicate that in 2026 when everyone knows Democrats will have to target deep red states for the majority.

This was Schumer being smart as ever, but he’s already played that ace.

Also Osborn was uniquely good at doing the whole shtick. I don't think many others could walk the tightrope the way he did.

[vbfox]

Osborne lived and breathed the independent strategy. He'll show up on liberal podcasts and then also tout build the wall at a farmer's event in the panhandle

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

The problem with trying the Osborn (fake) "independent" strategy in blue/red states is that it works best when the incumbent/other party sleeps on it and when it isn’t overdone. The more you use it, the more predictable it becomes. Osborn benefited from the surprise effect, as no one anticipated his challenge, and even he ended up going the way of Gross/Orman/... . It’s going to be very hard to replicate that in 2026 when everyone knows Democrats will have to target deep red states for the majority.

This was Schumer being smart as ever, but he’s already played that ace.

Also Osborn was uniquely good at doing the whole shtick. I don't think many others could walk the tightrope the way he did.

We don’t know that because none of the other “independent” candidates tried his schtick or anything resembling it. 

The problem with trying the Osborn (fake) "independent" strategy in blue/red states is that it works best when the incumbent/other party sleeps on it and when it isn’t overdone. The more you use it, the more predictable it becomes. Osborn benefited from the surprise effect, as no one anticipated his challenge, and even he ended up going the way of Gross/Orman/... . It’s going to be very hard to replicate that in 2026 when everyone knows Democrats will have to target deep red states for the majority.

This was Schumer being smart as ever, but he’s already played that ace.

Osborn did far better on much tougher turf than Gross or Orman.  He also ran an extremely different type of campaign.  Lumping Orman and Osborn together is like saying Joe Manchin and Bernie Sanders are identical just because they were both nominally Independent Senators who caucus with the Democratic Party.

Gross was never expected to be competitive and Orman ran an abysmal campaign while pitching himself as a socially liberal, fiscally conservative soulless Moderate Hero.  Could not be more different from Osborn.