Why did Biden do so well in New Mexico given its high Hispanic population?

[perpetual_cynic]

Trump made significant gains with Hispanics across the country. Why is it that the state in the Union with the highest share of Hispanics, New Mexico, gave Biden such a large victory, besting Hillary Clinton and even besting Obama 2012?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's funny, you're probably the only one who would say that he even did well in the state, It occurs to me that it voting to Colorado's right somehow has made many feel very bearish about future Democratic chances in the state which is kind of ridiculous to me. All that suggests to me is that Democrats have a ceiling in the state, one that Obama hit too in 2012 while doing even better with Latinos.

Anyway, the simple, short, somewhat cliched answer, is that Hispanics are not monolithic.

[Jamison5]

I think it may have been because of Gary Johnson's strong performance in 2016 and perhaps the state would have trended blue a few points in 2016 if not for that and then would have trended red in 2020. I think that also explains the surprisingly large trends toward Biden in MN, CO, and NH.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Because Democrats still win Hispanic voters by around 30 points nationwide? Not really that surprising all things considered.

Democrats also perform very well among white voters along the Albuquerque-Sante Fe corridor, who tend to be a lot more likely to be college educated and upper-income than the statewide average.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

College educated whites in Albuquerque. Trump got a fairly high percentage of Hispanics in New Mexico, but did horrendously among college educated whites.

[perpetual_cynic]

It's funny, you're probably the only one who would say that he even did well in the state, It occurs to me that it voting to Colorado's right somehow has made many feel very bearish about future Democratic chances in the state which is kind of ridiculous to me. All that suggests to me is that Democrats have a ceiling in the state, one that Obama hit too in 2012 while doing even better with Latinos.

Anyway, the simple, short, somewhat cliched answer, is that Hispanics are not monolithic.

I would say that Biden did very well in New Mexico. Look at New Mexico pre-Obama. Just because he didn't match Obama's 2008 performance doesn't mean he did poorly, it is incomprehensible to set that as the standard. Biden didn't do as well as Obama nationwide in 2008. It roughly matched the US vote. Democrats don't have to always be increasing to have a good election

[perpetual_cynic]

Because Democrats still win Hispanic voters by around 30 points nationwide? Not really that surprising all things considered.

Democrats also perform very well among white voters along the Albuquerque-Sante Fe corridor, who tend to be a lot more likely to be college educated and upper-income than the statewide average.

I'm aware of this. I'm talking in terms of swing, however. Conventional wisdom would have us to believe that Hispanic-majority counties would swing towards Trump. Many rural areas did, however, many counties swung to Biden.

[perpetual_cynic]

I think it may have been because of Gary Johnson's strong performance in 2016 and perhaps the state would have trended blue a few points in 2016 if not for that and then would have trended red in 2020. I think that also explains the surprisingly large trends toward Biden in MN, CO, and NH.

You have to remember though that Trump got more vote in 2016 in CO and NH with third-parties present, than he did in 2020 without. It wasn't just a matter of Biden increasing.

[Jamison5]

I think it may have been because of Gary Johnson's strong performance in 2016 and perhaps the state would have trended blue a few points in 2016 if not for that and then would have trended red in 2020. I think that also explains the surprisingly large trends toward Biden in MN, CO, and NH.

You have to remember though that Trump got more vote in 2016 in CO and NH with third-parties present, than he did in 2020 without. It wasn't just a matter of Biden increasing.

Yeah, I know that. I know Albequerque has been the main reason for New Mexico's blue shift, and people moving into Denver made CO bluer, and New Hampshire Idk about. I guess New Hampshire has swung hard against Republican incumbents sometimes like in 1992 and 2004 also.

[Not Me, Us]

I think it may have been because of Gary Johnson's strong performance in 2016 and perhaps the state would have trended blue a few points in 2016 if not for that and then would have trended red in 2020. I think that also explains the surprisingly large trends toward Biden in MN, CO, and NH.

You have to remember though that Trump got more vote in 2016 in CO and NH with third-parties present, than he did in 2020 without. It wasn't just a matter of Biden increasing.

Yeah, I know that. I know Albequerque has been the main reason for New Mexico's blue shift, and people moving into Denver made CO bluer, and New Hampshire Idk about. I guess New Hampshire has swung hard against Republican incumbents sometimes like in 1992 and 2004 also.

Part of it may be that NH is pretty secular. There just isn't much of an evangelical base there, so the GOP doubling down on culture war stuff just doesn't appeal in New England.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

White Urban/Suburban Voters+Johnson 2016 Voters.

[perpetual_cynic]

I think it may have been because of Gary Johnson's strong performance in 2016 and perhaps the state would have trended blue a few points in 2016 if not for that and then would have trended red in 2020. I think that also explains the surprisingly large trends toward Biden in MN, CO, and NH.

You have to remember though that Trump got more vote in 2016 in CO and NH with third-parties present, than he did in 2020 without. It wasn't just a matter of Biden increasing.

Yeah, I know that. I know Albequerque has been the main reason for New Mexico's blue shift, and people moving into Denver made CO bluer, and New Hampshire Idk about. I guess New Hampshire has swung hard against Republican incumbents sometimes like in 1992 and 2004 also.

Essentially Biden did better in Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Doña Ana and Bernalillo. That is the reason I think.

[perpetual_cynic]

I think it may have been because of Gary Johnson's strong performance in 2016 and perhaps the state would have trended blue a few points in 2016 if not for that and then would have trended red in 2020. I think that also explains the surprisingly large trends toward Biden in MN, CO, and NH.

You have to remember though that Trump got more vote in 2016 in CO and NH with third-parties present, than he did in 2020 without. It wasn't just a matter of Biden increasing.

Yeah, I know that. I know Albequerque has been the main reason for New Mexico's blue shift, and people moving into Denver made CO bluer, and New Hampshire Idk about. I guess New Hampshire has swung hard against Republican incumbents sometimes like in 1992 and 2004 also.

Part of it may be that NH is pretty secular. There just isn't much of an evangelical base there, so the GOP doubling down on culture war stuff just doesn't appeal in New England.

I think Trump's base in NH is one of the most moderate in the nation.

[Motorcity]

1. New Mexico was Gary Johnson's best state in 2016

In 2016, Hillary won 48%, Trump got 40% and Johnson got 9%

In 2020, Biden got 54% and Trump got 44%

Basically, less people decided to be crazy and voted for the two main parties instead of the some silly third party


2. Also, lots of liberal whites have moved into the state

3. The shift of Hispanics towards the GOP wasn't even in the whole country. The biggest were in places like RGV and Miami-Dade. Places in AZ and NM were less

[perpetual_cynic]

1. New Mexico was Gary Johnson's best state in 2016

In 2016, Hillary won 48%, Trump got 40% and Johnson got 9%

In 2020, Biden got 54% and Trump got 44%

Basically, less people decided to be crazy and voted for the two main parties instead of the some silly third party


2. Also, lots of liberal whites have moved into the state

3. The shift of Hispanics towards the GOP wasn't even in the whole country. The biggest were in places like RGV and Miami-Dade. Places in AZ and NM were less

Hispanics in Santa Fe, Albuquerque and Las Cruces tend to be more educated and better economically than RGV.

[President Johnson]

To be honest, I actually expected him to do perform better. My bet was he'd win 58-39%. Never expected New Mexico to vote to right of Colorado.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's funny, you're probably the only one who would say that he even did well in the state, It occurs to me that it voting to Colorado's right somehow has made many feel very bearish about future Democratic chances in the state which is kind of ridiculous to me. All that suggests to me is that Democrats have a ceiling in the state, one that Obama hit too in 2012 while doing even better with Latinos.

Anyway, the simple, short, somewhat cliched answer, is that Hispanics are not monolithic.

I would say that Biden did very well in New Mexico. Look at New Mexico pre-Obama. Just because he didn't match Obama's 2008 performance doesn't mean he did poorly, it is incomprehensible to set that as the standard. Biden didn't do as well as Obama nationwide in 2008. It roughly matched the US vote. Democrats don't have to always be increasing to have a good election

By the way, I forgot to mention in my post the two other simple answers: no Gary Johnson presence and Biden's performance among indigenous voters certainly helped too.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats seemed to really outperform across much of the southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado... especially Colorado).  I do think something else is going on.  Probably California influence as people move out of the state.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Democrats seemed to really outperform across much of the southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado... especially Colorado).  I do think something else is going on.  Probably California influence as people move out of the state.

Utah is surrounded by 4 states in the blue Sunbelt.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Democrats seemed to really outperform across much of the southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado... especially Colorado).  I do think something else is going on.  Probably California influence as people move out of the state.

Utah is surrounded by 4 states in the blue Sunbelt.

So the theory is that the influence of Utah makes those other 4 states vote Dem? It is like they look at Utah, and the say, "yuck, we don't want that"?

[Hope For A New Era]

Hispanics are not monolithic, and New Mexico Hispanics in particular are a whole different kind of Hispanic: ancestral Spanish who have been in the US for centuries, not ancestral Mexican/Central American/South American/Caribbean/whatever.

Apparently, this demographic is extremely D.

[perpetual_cynic]

Hispanics are not monolithic, and New Mexico Hispanics in particular are a whole different kind of Hispanic: ancestral Spanish who have been in the US for centuries, not ancestral Mexican/Central American/South American/Caribbean/whatever.

Apparently, this demographic is extremely D.

According to the Census Bureau, upwards of 80-90% of Hispanics classify themselves as Mexican origin or Spaniards. Central American Hispanics are few and far between in New Mexico.

[bayareabay]

New Mexico is a state that tends to follow national trends in politics (it voted for the winner of the national popular vote in almost every election since attaining statehood). The country shifted more to the left from 2016 and New Mexico followed that trend.

[SevenEleven]

Biden did well in New Mexico because of its large Hispanic population.

[Calthrina950]

Biden did well in New Mexico because of its large Hispanic population.

That's correct. Trump would have won New Mexico easily if only white voters had participated. And of course, we can't forget Native Americans-another vital component of the Democratic coalition there (and in Arizona as well).