Adlai Stevenson
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,403
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2006, 10:32:28 AM » |
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I admit that Talent has a significant cash advantage but this does not always equate to an electoral margin. In Pennsylvania, Santorum has more cash than Casey and continues to trail, I believe another example of this is in Minnesota where Kennedy has a small financial lead over Klobuchar though again the opposite is true electorally. I think the drugs thing was overrated in any case and as McCaskill admitted to it herself freely she diffused any of its potential power quickly.
I by no means believe a McCaskill victory is definite, but I think she has a fair chance and will be helped by several factors, including the political climate of 2006. She will win a majority of the women's vote, a majority of self-identified Independents and moderates, the referendums on stem cell research and the minimum wage on the ballot will bring out voters in support of them - and her. Finally, two years ago she was able to win 48% of the vote that gave John Kerry 46%. This was after she had won a close primary over a Governor of her own party. She can also count on support from rural Missouri, where she has roots. I claim McCaskill can win 49% of the vote based on voters who went for Blunt two years ago and are suffering 'buyer's remorse'. Talent will get 48% of the vote, I predict.
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