Gallup: Talent(R) leads McCaskill(D) by six pts (user search)
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  Gallup: Talent(R) leads McCaskill(D) by six pts (search mode)
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Author Topic: Gallup: Talent(R) leads McCaskill(D) by six pts  (Read 1454 times)
Adlai Stevenson
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« on: September 03, 2006, 05:33:27 AM »

Missouri may have voted for Bush 53%-46% in 2004, but this year's political environment is clearly completely different.  Bush and the state GOP are unpopular in Missouri.  I personally don't believe the SUSA poll which showed Talent with better approvals than Kit Bond.  Talent is a weak, neo-conservative clone.  McCaskill is a strong candidate amongst women and independents.  Obviously, the state has become more conservative of late but enough polls have shown McCaskill leading or tied to consider this race a true toss-up.  In the end, I think McCaskill will win by a small margin.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2006, 10:32:28 AM »

I admit that Talent has a significant cash advantage but this does not always equate to an electoral margin.  In Pennsylvania, Santorum has more cash than Casey and continues to trail, I believe another example of this is in Minnesota where Kennedy has a small financial lead over Klobuchar though again the opposite is true electorally.  I think the drugs thing was overrated in any case and as McCaskill admitted to it herself freely she diffused any of its potential power quickly. 

I by no means believe a McCaskill victory is definite, but I think she has a fair chance and will be helped by several factors, including the political climate of 2006.  She will win a majority of the women's vote, a majority of self-identified Independents and moderates, the referendums on stem cell research and the minimum wage on the ballot will bring out voters in support of them - and her.  Finally, two years ago she was able to win 48% of the vote that gave John Kerry 46%.  This was after she had won a close primary over a Governor of her own party.  She can also count on support from rural Missouri, where she has roots.  I claim McCaskill can win 49% of the vote based on voters who went for Blunt two years ago and are suffering 'buyer's remorse'.  Talent will get 48% of the vote, I predict.
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