Gallup: Talent(R) leads McCaskill(D) by six pts
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  Gallup: Talent(R) leads McCaskill(D) by six pts
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Author Topic: Gallup: Talent(R) leads McCaskill(D) by six pts  (Read 1262 times)
Mr. Kanye West
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« on: September 01, 2006, 09:14:37 PM »
« edited: September 05, 2006, 06:48:23 AM by overton »

New Poll: Missouri Senator by Gallup on 2006-08-27

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2006, 09:29:04 PM »

Again, where are you getting the numbers? The link only gives the margin.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2006, 12:56:34 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2006, 01:34:04 AM by Eraserhead »

It could be a long night with this race but Talent may have a slight edge.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2006, 01:04:43 AM »

Having voted for Bush by a similar 7 pt margin this race doesn't suprise me that Talent is leading by the same margin that Bush won by.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2006, 01:35:15 AM »

Well it is also important to note that they are dead even among registered voters in this poll.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2006, 01:48:15 AM »

All the other recent polls, Zogby and Rasmussen has Talent pulling ahead. I think the illegal drug charge hurt her in this race. And it isn't enough just to run on stem cell research. She needs a new issue to recapture the momentum and Talent's approval ratings is at 52%. I think this race is a tossup but Talent has the momentum right now.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2006, 07:22:17 PM »

Modified Url.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2006, 05:33:27 AM »

Missouri may have voted for Bush 53%-46% in 2004, but this year's political environment is clearly completely different.  Bush and the state GOP are unpopular in Missouri.  I personally don't believe the SUSA poll which showed Talent with better approvals than Kit Bond.  Talent is a weak, neo-conservative clone.  McCaskill is a strong candidate amongst women and independents.  Obviously, the state has become more conservative of late but enough polls have shown McCaskill leading or tied to consider this race a true toss-up.  In the end, I think McCaskill will win by a small margin.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2006, 09:07:14 AM »

You say McCaskill is going to win definately, and Talent has 19M compared to Claire who has 4 M and she admitted to illegal drug charge, I wouldn't definately give her a victory, and only in the other poll it is well within the margin of error.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2006, 10:32:28 AM »

I admit that Talent has a significant cash advantage but this does not always equate to an electoral margin.  In Pennsylvania, Santorum has more cash than Casey and continues to trail, I believe another example of this is in Minnesota where Kennedy has a small financial lead over Klobuchar though again the opposite is true electorally.  I think the drugs thing was overrated in any case and as McCaskill admitted to it herself freely she diffused any of its potential power quickly. 

I by no means believe a McCaskill victory is definite, but I think she has a fair chance and will be helped by several factors, including the political climate of 2006.  She will win a majority of the women's vote, a majority of self-identified Independents and moderates, the referendums on stem cell research and the minimum wage on the ballot will bring out voters in support of them - and her.  Finally, two years ago she was able to win 48% of the vote that gave John Kerry 46%.  This was after she had won a close primary over a Governor of her own party.  She can also count on support from rural Missouri, where she has roots.  I claim McCaskill can win 49% of the vote based on voters who went for Blunt two years ago and are suffering 'buyer's remorse'.  Talent will get 48% of the vote, I predict.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2006, 11:35:48 AM »

McCaskill is a moderate democrat. Not some Jefferson city or St. Louis democrat. She will likely cut Talents margins in rural Missouri while still swamping talent in the big cities.
McCaskill 49%
Talent 48%
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2006, 12:08:14 PM »

I am not so sure about McCaskill winning she has lost every Zogby poll.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2006, 12:11:44 PM »

I am not so sure about McCaskill winning she has lost every Zogby poll.

Thats the reason while she will win.
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2006, 12:14:32 PM »

No, it isn't I am just giving you caution in determining that she will win. Talent's approval rating has increased to 52%. And she hasn't had the lead in multiple polls. Again this doesn't affect the fact that she may pull it off at the end but in determining that she will win, it should be noted.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2006, 12:46:53 PM »

You say McCaskill is going to win definately, and Talent has 19M compared to Claire who has 4 M and she admitted to illegal drug charge, I wouldn't definately give her a victory, and only in the other poll it is well within the margin of error.

Overton, do you realize that Talent has outspent McCaskill 12million to 1 million and he's only up by six percent. That's an incredible disparity. Talent has $7 left; McCaskill has $3 mill. This race is not over.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2006, 02:20:31 PM »

Like MW2008 said, Talent has vastly outspent McCaskill at this point. Once the McCaskill campaign starts spending and the DSCC pumps some money into this race, I think her numbers will go up.

I put this as our #5 best pickup opportunity at this point.
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