MD Sen: SUSA sez Mfume leads Cardin in primary..

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Here is something I posted at another blog.  My prediction is inside.

Cardin has some things going for him including - money for GOTV, advertising, etc… He does not, however, have a large group of core supporters who would go to the end of the earth to see him elected to the US Senate. He’s the common sense candidate that you pull the lever for once your in the booth, but not exactly the type of guy that voters are going to take time out of their busy schedule to drive to the polls and vote for.

Mfume on the other hand has no cash, but he does have a group of supporters that would do just about anything to see him elected to the US Senate.

Polls do not measure intensity and thats the one thing Mfume has going for him. Love em’ or hate em’, Mfume’s supporters are intense and very passionate.

Here is my prediction - if turnout is extremely low, Mfume wins. If turnout is high acorss the state, Cardin wins.

Im thinking turnout will be relatively high because there are a number of local races that literally neck and neck - Comptroller, Attorney General, Senate. Also local primary races like, MoCo Executive (Silverman vs Leggett), Anne Arundel County Executive, and a lot of other local offices like House of Delegates and County Council(s).

[Moooooo]

Another amazing fact from this race - Mfume has not run a SINGLE tv ad and is still managing to poll neck and neck with both Cardin and Steele.  Literally ZERO advertising.

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While Im on this topic.  Mfume did an excellent job in the debate last night.  Love em' or hate em' he's great in front of the cameras.  Cardin came of as, well, Cardin.  A big time policy wonk who struggles to actually connect with people.