Hot Take: Trump’s 1st debate performance cost him the election

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

I'll always be of the opinion that just not having the worst 1st Debate Performance of all time would've saved Trump. Yes, Wallace was horrific at his job and should never moderate a presidential debate again, and Biden had a terrible performance too, but Trump was simply totally horrendous.

He lost hundreds of thousands of suburbanites right there, and I bet that you could probably find enough votes in Maricopa/WOW/Atlanta Metro Area who wouldn't have stayed home or even switched votes if he performed OK in the first debate. Especially considering most people voted early.

[TML]

So what about his debate performance did you think was decisive - his lack of professionalism, or his answers regarding where he stood on the issues?

[Epaminondas]

I'll always be of the opinion that just not having the worst 1st Debate Performance of all time would've saved Trump.

?
Trump behaved exactly the way he always does, indeed the only way he knows, during the debates. It was no different from his performance with Hilary.

I certainly hope that the average intelligence US voter would not be swayed for someone as abhorrent as Trump just based on 20 minutes of TV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump's debate performance was par for course. Trump behaved like Trump does. Trump will be Trump.
It's very unlikely that a significant number of voters were moved decisively in Trump's favor or in Biden's favor by any of Trump's debate performances either. If you like Trump you likely approved of his debate performance. If you disliked him, vice versa.

[EJ24]

This is a good take, I remember after that debate hearing a lot of people at my job who are reliably Republican talking about how embarrassing and repulsive Trump was. If they were saying stuff like that, I can only imagine what suburban moderates and swing voters thought.

One particularly disgusting moment was when Biden brought up his dead son Beau who served in Afghanistan, and in response to this Trump decided to shift the conversation to his other son's drug addiction issues. For people such as myself who had to watch family and friends struggle with addiction and overcoming it, I thought that was particularly disgusting for a sitting President, and Biden handled the situation pretty well.

[TodayJunior]

Nothing would have saved him. His disapproval was always above his approval, and the former was almost always above 50% throughout his term. The very nature of a "President Trump" was a freak accident in three states all by itself.

I think Trump was actually shocked he won the first time, and I don't think he really enjoyed being president either.

[DaleCooper]

Nothing would have saved him. His disapproval was always above his approval, and the former was almost always above 50% throughout his term. The very nature of a "President Trump" was a freak accident in three states all by itself.

I think Trump was actually shocked he won the first time, and I don't think he really enjoyed being president either.

Trump is a paranoid, angry narcissist. Every activity under the sun is a frightening and miserable experience for him on some level because of that, so it isn't like he's any happier in other situations. But he loved the power and the attention the presidency gave him, so in that sense he loved being president.

[TodayJunior]

Nothing would have saved him. His disapproval was always above his approval, and the former was almost always above 50% throughout his term. The very nature of a "President Trump" was a freak accident in three states all by itself.

I think Trump was actually shocked he won the first time, and I don't think he really enjoyed being president either.

Trump is a paranoid, angry narcissist. Every activity under the sun is a frightening and miserable experience for him on some level because of that, so it isn't like he's any happier in other situations. But he loved the power and the attention the presidency gave him, so in that sense he loved being president.

Oh yes to all of the above most definitely, but more specifically, I was referring to the actual job of being president. The attention part for sure. 🙄🙄🙄🙄

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. People thought his first debate was going to cost him 2016 too. Let's face it, debates are irrelevant, especially with Trump, because the American public's memories are far too short for them to matter. Granted, I do think the debate did hurt him in polling (when adjusted for the effect he has on polls underestimating him). Had either of his two national elections taken place the Tuesday after the debates, I think he would have lost and lost worse, respectively. But that hypothetical is the only way the debates matter.

[Non Swing Voter]

I personally don't think he ever had a chance against Biden, he came really close in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia but I don't think he was ever going to win Wisconsin against Biden.

That said, I think if there was one event that signaled the beginning of the end it was the debate performance.  It reminded everyone of what a joke the last 4 years were and how unfit he was to be President.  I think the covid diagnosis locked that in too.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I always wanted to believe that Trump lost 2020 the second he won 2016, and I know so much of this last election was baked in from the start, but the closeness of the electoral college does show that Trump could have won.

I agree that his repugnant debate performance might have done it. I would also suggest that he probably would have won if there had not been such easy access to mail-in voting. It was a high-turnout election because it was really easy to vote, and I think a lot of people turned out to vote who never would have voted under normal circumstances. This group included supporters of both Trump and Biden, but I'd wager it included more Biden supporters. Trump's people were always coming out, no matter hell or high water.

[Pericles]

No. People thought his first debate was going to cost him 2016 too. Let's face it, debates are irrelevant, especially with Trump, because the American public's memories are far too short for them to matter. Granted, I do think the debate did hurt him in polling (when adjusted for the effect he has on polls underestimating him). Had either of his two national elections taken place the Tuesday after the debates, I think he would have lost and lost worse, respectively. But that hypothetical is the only way the debates matter.

Given how many people voted by mail, in a way it did, more than other elections.

[KaiserDave]

With the close result, it's a plausible idea

[Inmate Trump]

I work with some Trump voters who disliked his first debate performance.

One even said they stopped respecting him altogether.

However, they all still voted for him.

[Chips]

It was so close that just about anything could've cost him.

[pbrower2a]

So what about his debate performance did you think was decisive - his lack of professionalism, or his answers regarding where he stood on the issues?

Basically he cheated. Watching that debate nauseated me. Chris Wallace ended up hosting a taping of something better resembling an episode of the Jerry Springer Show than a Presidential debate. The only difference was that no chairs would fly.

All politicians try to change the questions to fit their agendas to some extent... Trump tried to make the session his monologue. Chris Wallace said after the debate that he had forty-five pages of preparation and got to use little of it.

In a boxing match this would be Mike Tyson biting Evander Holyfield's ear.

 

[Motorcity]

I think it did, considering how close the results were

I'm a teacher. I went to work the next morning and saw a group of my fellow teachers on early bus duty. They were discussing how disgusted they were with Trump's behavior. The gym teacher, who is very far right, said she was looking forward to the VP debate to see Pence acting "presidential"

[UncleSam]

Nothing would have saved him. His disapproval was always above his approval, and the former was almost always above 50% throughout his term. The very nature of a "President Trump" was a freak accident in three states all by itself.

I think Trump was actually shocked he won the first time, and I don't think he really enjoyed being president either.

When the difference in the election was 40k votes in 3 states, it’s hard to make the argument that nothing possibly could’ve won Trump the election.

I do agree he probably disliked being president though.

[dw93]

With hindsight, I think it was a death of a thousand cuts that started with Trump's response to he George Floyd killing that derailed his re election chances.  Prior to June of 2020, I thought Trump was gonna win. It wasn't until that point that it became very clear that Trump botched the federal COVID response and that he was doing nothing more than dumping a can of gas on racial tensions and lighting a match that I began to think he was gonna lose. I think his disgusting performance in the first debate and the COVID diagnosis were just icing on the cake.

Honestly, it says a lot about the current state of the US that despite all of that and despite a terribly run re election campaign, Trump was within 40K votes of being re elected (abet by the House).

[Roll Roons]

With hindsight, I think it was a death of a thousand cuts that started with Trump's response to he George Floyd killing that derailed his re election chances.  Prior to June of 2020, I thought Trump was gonna win. It wasn't until that point that it became very clear that Trump botched the federal COVID response and that he was doing nothing more than dumping a can of gas on racial tensions and lighting a match that I began to think he was gonna lose. I think his disgusting performance in the first debate and the COVID diagnosis were just icing on the cake.

Honestly, it says a lot about the current state of the US that despite all of that and despite a terribly run re election campaign, Trump was within 40K votes of being re elected (abet by the House).

I think the the road to his defeat started in March when he said "I don't take responsibility at all" about COVID testing. It snowballed after that.

[NHI]

The debate may have sealed the deal, but I would argue the daily news conferences last year doomed his re-election bid.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think the first debate was more a missed opportunity than anything that "cost him" in a negative sense. Biden was barely coherent and Trump seemed to ignore it and repeatedly talk over him with unrelated nonsense instead. Absolutely astonishing viewing. It was an open goal and he missed!

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the first debate was more a missed opportunity than anything that "cost him" in a negative sense. Biden was barely coherent and Trump seemed to ignore it and repeatedly talk over him with unrelated nonsense instead. Absolutely astonishing viewing. It was an open goal and he missed!

Whats even more ironic is the debate where Trump didnt interrupt nearly as much was the debate he won in

[Pericles]

I think the first debate was more a missed opportunity than anything that "cost him" in a negative sense. Biden was barely coherent and Trump seemed to ignore it and repeatedly talk over him with unrelated nonsense instead. Absolutely astonishing viewing. It was an open goal and he missed!

Whats even more ironic is the debate where Trump didnt interrupt nearly as much was the debate he won in

Trump didn't win the second debate, or any general election debate he has ever been in, he just didn't botch it.

[Chips]

I will also point out that Romney and Clinton were perceived to have won the 2012 and 2016 debates respectively overall. Where did that get them exactly? I don't think the debate mattered as much as a lot of other little mistakes Trump made. I think Trump could've easily put a lot of the money he put in MN into WI instead for example and while WI by itself wouldn't have won the election for him, it would've given him a more respectable standing.

Trump probably would've easily won re-election had he spread the message.

Trump: "Hey, I know we all dislike staying at home and wearing masks but wearing masks and stopping the spread of the virus is the patriotic thing to do at times like these. The sooner we can end the virus, the sooner restrictions can safely be lifted. Please, do your part to put an end to the virus. Stay at home until your state or local officials say it's okay to leave, socially distance and wear a mask."

If Trump had said something like that early on, he probably would've won but that's my opinion.