My theory is not that people have become more conservative or more liberal, but that the more liberal voters are higher propensity in their youth relative to conservative young voters, who tend to not vote early on in their life as much, but do much later as they grow.
This also helps to explain the low turnout among younger voters in general.
If this is true, it would make sense from anecdotal standpoints, young activists are almost always supporting Democrats, while the less engaged would probably be more likely to vote Republican if forced.
I think that's 100% true. And I think that explains some of the reason Trump did "better" among asians and hispanics, because he brought out lower propensity young ones who don't tend to vote.
I also think the goalposts shift as people age. When I first voted it was considered ultra liberal to support gay marriage. Now that's considered a moderate position.
On a lot of other issues the same things are being litigated year in and year out. It’s really interesting to think where we would be if there was no judicial intervention on segregation or abortion.
Back to the original topic:
I think this could go either way. Are these Trump voters or new Republican voters? Can Democrats still rely on their base? In a lot of ways, 2020 was a lot like 2004 and 2012 (a lot of movement stalled on the incumbent side but they still won by motivating a lot of people who would vote for the other team 10 years ago and between then and now just wouldn’t vote). If 2022 goes heavily Republican and if Democrats don’t get anything done, Democrats should campaign in 2024 as if Trump is still president. With SCOTUS and heavily Republican controlled swing states doing what they’re doing, it might not be that hard.
