Millennials have become more Republican as they have aged

[OSR stands with Israel]

While many people try to argue that the talking point of young people becoming more conservative as they age isnt true, among Millennials it has so far been true . In 2008 voters aged 18-29(the vast majority who were millennials)  voted for Obama by a 66-32 margin, while in 2020 those same voters who now were mainly 30-39 year olds voted for Biden by a 51-46 margin.

https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The Edison polls aren’t necessarily accurate (43% of 25-29 year olds voting for Trump sounds sketch to me). And not all of the Millennials who voted in 2020 also voted in 2008.

But yeah, there’s probably been some shift among the 1981-1990 cohort of US-born citizens from Obama to Trump.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Edison polls aren’t necessarily accurate (43% of 25-29 year olds voting for Trump sounds sketch to me). And not all of the Millennials who voted in 2020 also voted in 2008.

But yeah, there’s probably been some shift from Obama to Trump.

Sure but a shift from 66-32 18-29 year olds to 51-46 as 30-39 year olds is way out of the margin of error meaning there has been a shift. Maybe it could just mean that people vote more as they age so much of the shift could be attributed to that .

[Chips]

Interesting data.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yeah, this is a pretty blatant apples to oranges comparison due to both the the new voters participating in the electorate as they age and the heightened turnout in general this past election. And the exit polls are particularly problematic for this past election, with Edison’s demographic tabs being the wonkiest of them all. Voters in their 30s breaking nearly the same as the national average doesn’t pass the smell test.

The 18 to 29 2008 vote was the tip of the younger progressive spear arriving on the scene in a noticeable way, not at all surprising considering economic circumstances and Obama’s explicit outreach to the youth vote. As more Millenials enter the electorate, of course those margins are going to drop from the absurd heights Obama reached.

But Republicans haven’t really done anything to solve their issues with the younger cohorts. They’ve not only largely failed to come to terms with why so many younger Americans have broken away from their ideological orthodoxy and shifted the Overton Window leftwards, but have dug their heels in defiance of the vision of America most Millenials and Gen Z’ers already embrace. Until they stop catering their identity so heavily to their Boomer and Gen X aged voters, they’ll keep getting thumped among Millenials and Gen Z.

Their other issue is that one of the major leverage points Republicans have on enforcing political allegiance is conservative Christian politics, and this touchstone is far less effective with the younger cohorts because so many of them are unaffiliated. And they aren’t coming back to religion as they age. The Millenials have reached their family forming years, and the data indicates there has been no statistically significant pivot back to religious identification or participation for them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, this is a pretty blatant apples to oranges comparison due to both the the new voters participating in the electorate as they age and the heightened turnout in general this past election. And the exit polls are particularly problematic for this past election, with Edison’s demographic tabs being the wonkiest of them all. Voters in their 30s breaking nearly the same as the national average doesn’t pass the smell test.

The 18 to 29 2008 vote was the tip of the younger progressive spear arriving on the scene in a noticeable way, not at all surprising considering economic circumstances and Obama’s explicit outreach to the youth vote. As more Millenials enter the electorate, of course those margins are going to drop from the absurd heights Obama reached.

Their other issue is that one of the major leverage points Republicans have on enforcing political allegiance is conservative Christian politics, and this touchstone is far less effective with the younger cohorts because so many of them are unaffiliated. And they aren’t coming back to religion as they age. The Millenials have reached their family forming years, and the data indicates there has been no statistically significant pivot back to religious identification or participation for them.

- Eh seniors swung massively towards the democrats this past election with Trump winning them by only 4-5 points while I believe republicans usually win them by 10-12 points . So it’s not a surprise 30-39 year olds didn’t swing that much left and I believe they swung right actually .

- the republicans are far more secular and much less religiously conservative than they were in 2014 let alone 2004. The social issues republicans moved to the right on mostly have nothing to do with religion at all

[Devils30]

Edison is junk, FOX exit polls are probably better.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Using precinct data, trends, and a combination of exit polls (as bad as they are), voters aged 18-24 in 2008 voted 75-25 in favor of Obama, compared to 60-65% of 18-24 (at best) going for Biden.

This is inspite the fact that 18-24 from 2020 is far more diverse than 2008 era 18-24 millennials.

Something interesting to note!

[Gass3268]

Catalist, aka the good data, had 30-44 year olds between 57-58% Biden. Still a dip from 2008, but still overwhelmingly Democratic. 

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

- Eh seniors swung massively towards the democrats this past election with Trump winning them by only 4-5 points while I believe republicans usually win them by 10-12 points . So it’s not a surprise 30-39 year olds didn’t swing that much left and I believe they swung right actually .

- the republicans are far more secular and much less religiously conservative than they were in 2014 let alone 2004. The social issues republicans moved to the right on mostly have nothing to do with religion at all

Your second point is true, but the GOP base is still disproportionately evangelical Protestant whites and financially better-off people from all backgrounds who'd rather pay less income tax. I would attribute a good chunk of Trump's "gains" with 30 something year olds more to the COVID-19 environment + continuation of Obama's economic boom than anything else.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pretty much everyone knows this is true. Even if you want to rely on one single data source (or use the one that gives you the narrative you want) just measure the trend. Even if you think the same people who voted overwhelmingly Obama still are Democrats, you'd have to admit that those who didn't vote when they are young and now voting Republican (which doesn't seem very probable). And if it's the case that 30-40 year old's are still very Democratic, and not just Democratic-leaning, we should see 45-64 age group get more Democratic in the future, and that consistently has been a solid block for Republicans.

[Person Man]

Pretty much everyone knows this is true. Even if you want to rely on one single data source (or use the one that gives you the narrative you want) just measure the trend. Even if you think the same people who voted overwhelmingly Obama still are Democrats, you'd have to admit that those who didn't vote when they are young and now voting Republican (which doesn't seem very probable). And if it's the case that 30-40 year old's are still very Democratic, and not just Democratic-leaning, we should see 45-64 age group get more Democratic in the future, and that consistently has been a solid block for Republicans.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens as older cohorts become increasingly diverse and whether it was COVID or a realignment around more palpable wedge issues.

I also get this feeling that we a ripping pages from a 2004 Post-Mortem where an incumbent Republican president won by wedging away enough voters Democrats rely on. In 2008, they were hoping that there were enough young and PoC Evangelicals and Nationalists to save them in 2008. It didn't work out like that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yeah, this is a pretty blatant apples to oranges comparison due to both the the new voters participating in the electorate as they age and the heightened turnout in general this past election. And the exit polls are particularly problematic for this past election, with Edison’s demographic tabs being the wonkiest of them all. Voters in their 30s breaking nearly the same as the national average doesn’t pass the smell test.

The 18 to 29 2008 vote was the tip of the younger progressive spear arriving on the scene in a noticeable way, not at all surprising considering economic circumstances and Obama’s explicit outreach to the youth vote. As more Millenials enter the electorate, of course those margins are going to drop from the absurd heights Obama reached.

Their other issue is that one of the major leverage points Republicans have on enforcing political allegiance is conservative Christian politics, and this touchstone is far less effective with the younger cohorts because so many of them are unaffiliated. And they aren’t coming back to religion as they age. The Millenials have reached their family forming years, and the data indicates there has been no statistically significant pivot back to religious identification or participation for them.

- Eh seniors swung massively towards the democrats this past election with Trump winning them by only 4-5 points while I believe republicans usually win them by 10-12 points . So it’s not a surprise 30-39 year olds didn’t swing that much left and I believe they swung right actually .

- the republicans are far more secular and much less religiously conservative than they were in 2014 let alone 2004. The social issues republicans moved to the right on mostly have nothing to do with religion at all

Republicans are still very much wed to Christian nationalist themes in their messaging and values, and it underpins a foundational current in American conservative ideology. Attaching Christian identity to conservative identity is still frequently a package deal in this country, even for those conservatives who aren’t as fond of explicit bible-thumping politicking. This will change over time as the country continues to expand its religiously unaffiliated population, but we are still awhile away from a bona fide secular right-wing ideology from propagating in a widespread manner.

Until then, having vast swathes of the younger generations severed from one of the main leverage points Republicans have for inculcating a conservative identity attachment represents a distinct disadvantage.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is something off with that exit poll (and exit polls usually suck anyways).

Biden won 30-39 by 5 points
Biden won 40-49 by 10 points

I don't buy it.

Biden probably won older Millennials closer to the 10 point margin. 

2008 was a blowout year so it wasn't likely that Biden could match his numbers with any age group.

So basically when you factor that all in, they have probably shifted like 5-10 points over 12 years.   At that rate the GOP will be competitive with them by the time they're wearing adult diapers.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Using precinct data, trends, and a combination of exit polls (as bad as they are), voters aged 18-24 in 2008 voted 75-25 in favor of Obama, compared to 60-65% of 18-24 (at best) going for Biden.

This is inspite the fact that 18-24 from 2020 is far more diverse than 2008 era 18-24 millennials.

Something interesting to note!

It's almost like Obama 2008 did better overall than Biden 2020

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Using precinct data, trends, and a combination of exit polls (as bad as they are), voters aged 18-24 in 2008 voted 75-25 in favor of Obama, compared to 60-65% of 18-24 (at best) going for Biden.

This is inspite the fact that 18-24 from 2020 is far more diverse than 2008 era 18-24 millennials.

Something interesting to note!

It's almost like Obama 2008 did better overall than Biden 2020

Obama 2012 and Hillary also did better among 18-24 than Biden did, however.

[OneJ]

Using precinct data, trends, and a combination of exit polls (as bad as they are), voters aged 18-24 in 2008 voted 75-25 in favor of Obama, compared to 60-65% of 18-24 (at best) going for Biden.

This is inspite the fact that 18-24 from 2020 is far more diverse than 2008 era 18-24 millennials.

Something interesting to note!

It's almost like Obama 2008 did better overall than Biden 2020

Obama 2012 and Hillary also did better among 18-24 than Biden did, however.

Hillary didn't. If the 2016 exit poll is to be believed she only won them 56-34 which isn't nearly as well as Biden's 65-31 among the same group.

[It’s so Joever]

My theory is not that people have become more conservative or more liberal, but that the more liberal voters are higher propensity in their youth relative to conservative young voters, who tend to not vote early on in their life as much, but do much later as they grow.
This also helps to explain the low turnout among younger voters in general.

If this is true, it would make sense from anecdotal standpoints, young activists are almost always supporting Democrats, while the less engaged would probably be more likely to vote Republican if forced.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Using precinct data, trends, and a combination of exit polls (as bad as they are), voters aged 18-24 in 2008 voted 75-25 in favor of Obama, compared to 60-65% of 18-24 (at best) going for Biden.

This is inspite the fact that 18-24 from 2020 is far more diverse than 2008 era 18-24 millennials.

Something interesting to note!

It's almost like Obama 2008 did better overall than Biden 2020

Obama 2012 and Hillary also did better among 18-24 than Biden did, however.

Hillary didn't. If the 2016 exit poll is to be believed she only won them 56-34 which isn't nearly as well as Biden's 65-31 among the same group.

Wrong, aggregates with large sample sizes (not exit polls) actually showed that 18-24 of 2020 voted 60-36 (not 65-31), compared to the same aggregates showing 75-20 in 2008 and like 68-28 in 2012. Even compared to 2016 Trump’s share of 18-24 went up (2016 was like 64-32). So the share of 18-24 % for Republicans has actually been going up since 2008.

Even if you use the 66-30 stat which I believe to be inaccurate, it’s still an improvement from 2008. The younger generations are not as liberal as Obama Millennials.

[Alben Barkley]

The Edison polls are absolute garbage and I don't take any attempt to analyze or extrapolate anything based on them seriously.

The Fox/AP Votecast data is transparently 1000000 times more logical and accurate.

[It’s so Joever]

Pretty much everyone knows this is true. Even if you want to rely on one single data source (or use the one that gives you the narrative you want) just measure the trend. Even if you think the same people who voted overwhelmingly Obama still are Democrats, you'd have to admit that those who didn't vote when they are young and now voting Republican (which doesn't seem very probable). And if it's the case that 30-40 year old's are still very Democratic, and not just Democratic-leaning, we should see 45-64 age group get more Democratic in the future, and that consistently has been a solid block for Republicans.

Why not? If anything this seems far more probable than millions of voters suddenly changing their minds.

[Person Man]

Pretty much everyone knows this is true. Even if you want to rely on one single data source (or use the one that gives you the narrative you want) just measure the trend. Even if you think the same people who voted overwhelmingly Obama still are Democrats, you'd have to admit that those who didn't vote when they are young and now voting Republican (which doesn't seem very probable). And if it's the case that 30-40 year old's are still very Democratic, and not just Democratic-leaning, we should see 45-64 age group get more Democratic in the future, and that consistently has been a solid block for Republicans.

Why not? If anything this seems far more probable than millions of voters suddenly changing their minds.

Could it just be an issue of voter apathy than voters changing their mind?

[Non Swing Voter]

My theory is not that people have become more conservative or more liberal, but that the more liberal voters are higher propensity in their youth relative to conservative young voters, who tend to not vote early on in their life as much, but do much later as they grow.
This also helps to explain the low turnout among younger voters in general.

If this is true, it would make sense from anecdotal standpoints, young activists are almost always supporting Democrats, while the less engaged would probably be more likely to vote Republican if forced.

I think that's 100% true.  And I think that explains some of the reason Trump did "better" among asians and hispanics, because he brought out lower propensity young ones who don't tend to vote. 

I also think the goalposts shift as people age.  When I first voted it was considered ultra liberal to support gay marriage.  Now that's considered a moderate position. 

[I’m not Stu]

Hasn't the GOP become far more religiously fundamentalist than it was four years ago?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

My theory is not that people have become more conservative or more liberal, but that the more liberal voters are higher propensity in their youth relative to conservative young voters, who tend to not vote early on in their life as much, but do much later as they grow.
This also helps to explain the low turnout among younger voters in general.

If this is true, it would make sense from anecdotal standpoints, young activists are almost always supporting Democrats, while the less engaged would probably be more likely to vote Republican if forced.

I think that's 100% true.  And I think that explains some of the reason Trump did "better" among asians and hispanics, because he brought out lower propensity young ones who don't tend to vote.  

I also think the goalposts shift as people age.  When I first voted it was considered ultra liberal to support gay marriage.  Now that's considered a moderate position.  

I am a proponent of the shy Trump supporter and Forumlurker theories, but I don't think younger (<40), lower-propensity voters were key to Trump's "improvements" with Asians. I don't think it's necessarily accurate to describe recently naturalized immigrants (regardless of their ancestry) as "lower propensity voters" either.

Asians under 30 allegedly voting 83-15 Biden is somewhat more D than what I'd expect given baseline levels of D/R support among younger Asians I know IRL- which is par the course for the 2020 environment. Meanwhile, Latinos under 30 allegedly voting 73-24 Biden validates anecdotal observations about Biden's campaign and the "proxmity to whiteness" theory on racial voting behavior.

Hasn't the GOP become far more religiously fundamentalist than it was four years ago?

If there's been any change with the GOP, it's probably been in the opposite direction.