Collin County, TX

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is my home county. I was born here as well.
Like many, I was a bit surprised to see the closeness the county displayed in 2020. The margin for Rs shrunk massively, in a time when the county's population is going up by leaps and bounds.
How do you rate it in the 2024 election? I'm interested to hear what you think.

[Roll Roons]

Tossup. I feel like there has been some vote-switching here among upscale suburban types, and a non-Trump nominee could claw back at least some. After all, Van Taylor did outrun Trump by double digits and Cornyn won it by 11.

But demographic change has definitely also been a factor.

[DCUS]

I expect it vote somewhere in the R+3 to D+3 range, with an R tilt closer to tossup.

[Spectator]

Collin County is basically Orange County, California 10 years removed. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned into a light, but consistent shade of blue here in the next decade.

[Boobs]

Something interesting to note here is that parts of the north Plano-Frisco corridor are becoming a tertiary urban center for the DFW metroplex & are becoming almost "pure urban" in character (as compared to the suburban character overall of the county) and thus may soon resemble a much more Democratic county than before. Of course this trend is somewhat counteracted by growing exurban conurbations in the northeast and eastern parts of the county, but even they swung a decent amount in 2020. Old-growth suburbs like Plano have already "filled out" while Allen and Frisco see a lot of foreign-born high-education immigrants and younger white professionals/new families move in - Plano, Allen, and the Collin County half of Frisco already flipped in 2020.

[Xing]

Considering how quickly it's growing and how sharp the trend is, at least Tilt D, possibly Lean D, even assuming that the suburban trends aren't as strong in 2024. Counties like this are why Republicans should be at least potentially worried about Texas, even if South Texas votes similarly or even further right than it did in 2020. I'd say Denton is a Toss-Up.

[Real Texan Politics]

Depends on the candidate really. DeSantis may be the last republican candidate to ever win it, but someone like Trump probably would narrowly lose it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

One of the reasons I will be sad to see it eventually go D is it has such a cool name

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Collin is going to continue its Democratic trend and vote Democratic in 2024.

[DS0816]

Collin County and Denton County are gradually inching their way from Republican to bellwether counties for the state of Texas. (Within five percentage points.)

The Democrats being able to flip and carry Texas is made possible by these two counties joining Tarrant County (a 2020 Democratic pickup, first time 1964, which was the best bellwether county to the state but is now Lean Democratic) and Dallas County (a 2008 Democratic pickup, for the first time since 1964, and has since become Strongly Democratic).

[Chips]

Toss-up.