Why did Colorado shift so far to the left?
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  Why did Colorado shift so far to the left?
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Author Topic: Why did Colorado shift so far to the left?  (Read 1733 times)
Literally Just a Contrarian
KyrstenSinemaFan
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« on: May 17, 2021, 11:53:35 AM »
« edited: May 17, 2021, 12:03:04 PM by Chuck Grassley/Kyrsten Sinema Stan »

I remember pre election when many people said Colorado would be within 10 and closer than New Mexico. I also remember people saying Virginia would vote to the left of CO, for instance (VA was D+10 and CO D+14-15).

However CO swung 9-10 points Democrat, and was a 14 point win for Biden. This is way more than anyone expected, and at this rate I think CO will vote to the left of many historically Dem states in the NE by the end of the decade.

Seriously, the only reason why that state isn’t D+20 is because of old school Republicans who are still hanging around in the suburbs in places like El Paso, Pueblo, and Douglas County, and GOP improvements among Hispanics, and also in Southern Colorado which probably helped stop the bleeding.

Was it really weed legalization or Bay Area Californians moving to the Denver area? If anyone can explain this, I’d be happy.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2021, 03:14:45 PM »

I remember pre election when many people said Colorado would be within 10 and closer than New Mexico. I also remember people saying Virginia would vote to the left of CO, for instance (VA was D+10 and CO D+14-15).

However CO swung 9-10 points Democrat, and was a 14 point win for Biden. This is way more than anyone expected, and at this rate I think CO will vote to the left of many historically Dem states in the NE by the end of the decade.

Seriously, the only reason why that state isn’t D+20 is because of old school Republicans who are still hanging around in the suburbs in places like El Paso, Pueblo, and Douglas County, and GOP improvements among Hispanics, and also in Southern Colorado which probably helped stop the bleeding.

Was it really weed legalization or Bay Area Californians moving to the Denver area? If anyone can explain this, I’d be happy.


That's probably a lot of it. I'm just amazed how Republicans have collapsed in El Paso. It's the reverse Miami-Dade. It's become like the anti Missouri.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2021, 03:17:26 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2021, 03:25:44 PM by Roll Roons »

Colorado is something like the 3rd most college-educated state in the country, and the GOP has collapsed with college-educated voters in the Trump era.

I've said it before, but they really can't afford further slippage with this group. As the decade goes on, millennials and Gen Z will comprise a larger share of the electorate, and they are much more college-educated than older generations.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2021, 09:22:10 PM »

It's becoming Californiaized, there is also a lot of tech bros moving to Denver. A similar thing is happening in Texas. There is lots of ski resorts and outdoor recreation, which brings in lots of eco friendly types.
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Literally Just a Contrarian
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2021, 11:18:22 PM »

It's becoming Californiaized, there is also a lot of tech bros moving to Denver. A similar thing is happening in Texas. There is lots of ski resorts and outdoor recreation, which brings in lots of eco friendly types.

You’re right, but there are counter trends in Texas that seem to be favoring Republicans much more (Conservatives from CA moving in as well and not just techbros, Hispanic trends especially in the RGV, Houston and maybe SA potentially being maxed out for Dems.)

Colorado may have some similar trends but they aren’t as consequential in favor of the Republicans, partially because Texas is way larger than Colorado.
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Literally Just a Contrarian
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2021, 11:27:49 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2021, 11:32:21 PM by Chuck Grassley/Kyrsten Sinema Stan »

Colorado is something like the 3rd most college-educated state in the country, and the GOP has collapsed with college-educated voters in the Trump era.

I've said it before, but they really can't afford further slippage with this group. As the decade goes on, millennials and Gen Z will comprise a larger share of the electorate, and they are much more college-educated than older generations.

Gen Z actually isn’t as left wing as millennials are. However, college educated whites will be to the GOP what Hispanics will be to the Dems in the future- aka that one ex-rock solid demographic that trended heavily away from them.

I don’t think the GOP even needs to win college whites anymore to win, but they have to stop the bleeding.
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2021, 11:34:05 PM »

Colorado is something like the 3rd most college-educated state in the country, and the GOP has collapsed with college-educated voters in the Trump era.

I've said it before, but they really can't afford further slippage with this group. As the decade goes on, millennials and Gen Z will comprise a larger share of the electorate, and they are much more college-educated than older generations.

Yeah this.

And it's really problematic how far they've slipped with college educated voters not just for the reasons you gave but also because college educated voters vote in off years, down ballot races, etc.  So now the GOP is in a situation where there are not only more Democrats than Republicans nationally but the Dems at this point might have more reliable voters than they do.  Republicans do have old people but that's not enough.
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2021, 01:38:36 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 01:49:39 AM by "?" »

It's becoming Californiaized, there is also a lot of tech bros moving to Denver. A similar thing is happening in Texas. There is lots of ski resorts and outdoor recreation, which brings in lots of eco friendly types.

You’re right, but there are counter trends in Texas that seem to be favoring Republicans much more (Conservatives from CA moving in as well and not just techbros, Hispanic trends especially in the RGV, Houston and maybe SA potentially being maxed out for Dems.)

Eh "much more" is probably stretching it. Especially the RGV trends (Which mean little in the overall vote count), how it ain't just CA Conservatives moving to Texas & basing Hispanic trends off of one election.

It'd be one thing if Trump won it by 7-10%. But despite all the "GOP favored" counter trends you listed, it still swung nearly 3.5% to the left.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2021, 02:23:35 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 02:26:53 AM by Epaminondas »

Gen Z actually isn’t as left wing as millennials are. However, college educated whites will be to the GOP what Hispanics will be to the Dems in the future- aka that one ex-rock solid demographic that trended heavily away from them.

What is this fantasy in conservative circles that 20 year olds despise GOP policies of destroying the environment, keeping the minimum wage low and enforcing hypocritical Evangelicalism any less than 30 year olds?

I read about it a lot on rags such as American Thinker and LifeZette, but it doesn't seem to be making much of an impact, and was certainly disproven by 2020 election exit polls.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2021, 07:30:12 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 09:20:39 AM by Anti neoliberale Acktion. »


It'd be one thing if Trump won it by 7-10%. But despite all the "GOP favored" counter trends you listed, it still swung nearly 3.5% to the left.

Texas still voted 10.3 points right of the NPV, compared to 12.2 in 2016.  And thats with Biden, the best candidate for sun-belt suburban voters with a college degree against Trump, one of the worst fits.  So Texas did trend left, but only by about 2 points over 4 years.

Trends>swings



Yes, fixed.





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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2021, 08:23:32 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 09:43:25 AM by The Daily Beagle »


It'd be one thing if Trump won it by 7-10%. But despite all the "GOP favored" counter trends you listed, it still swung nearly 3.5% to the left.

Texas still voted 10.3 points right of the NPV, compared to 12.2 in 2016.  And thats with Biden, the best candidate for sun-belt suburban voters with a college degree against Trump, one of the worst fits.  So Texas did trend right, but only by about 2 points over 4 years.

Trends>swings

You mean left? So sure. Maybe you can make the argument that Texas was still "SAFE R" this year but if the trends continue, it will not be any more Republican than Colorado was as late as 2000.

Unless there's another reshuffle coming up, it could be considered no more than "LEAN R" by 2028. I definitely expect the next Democratic president to carry it and it could be that one state that pulls them over the top in another election where an unpopular Democratic party struggles, but is ultimately successful, against another completely unacceptable Republican administration.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2021, 09:06:06 AM »

I remember pre election when many people said Colorado would be within 10 and closer than New Mexico. I also remember people saying Virginia would vote to the left of CO, for instance (VA was D+10 and CO D+14-15).

However CO swung 9-10 points Democrat, and was a 14 point win for Biden. This is way more than anyone expected, and at this rate I think CO will vote to the left of many historically Dem states in the NE by the end of the decade.

Seriously, the only reason why that state isn’t D+20 is because of old school Republicans who are still hanging around in the suburbs in places like El Paso, Pueblo, and Douglas County, and GOP improvements among Hispanics, and also in Southern Colorado which probably helped stop the bleeding.

Was it really weed legalization or Bay Area Californians moving to the Denver area? If anyone can explain this, I’d be happy.


That's probably a lot of it. I'm just amazed how Republicans have collapsed in El Paso. It's the reverse Miami-Dade. It's become like the anti Missouri.

Trump still won El Paso County by about 11%, but yes, it did swing heavily Democratic, and Biden was the first Democrat in more than fifty years to break 40% here. The electoral map of Colorado from last year is fascinating to see:


Although Trump won more counties than Biden-county maps, as we very well know, are very deceptive (i.e. "land doesn't vote, people do"). The Plains Counties in the East and the Mountain Counties in the West where Trump got over 60%, 70%, or 80% of the vote are very sparsely populated and cast a trifling number of votes. The vast majority of Colorado's population-probably around two-thirds-lives in the Front Range Urban Corridor, which I would define as consisting of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Pueblo, and Weld Counties.

Trump only won three of these counties (Douglas, El Paso, and Weld), and the first two, as noted, swung strongly Democratic. He lost Pueblo County by about 1.9%, and lost all of the others by double digits or more. Arapahoe County voted over 60% Democratic, the first time ever, to my knowledge, that it has done so. Biden got nearly 80% in Denver and well over three-quarters in Boulder.
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2021, 03:07:54 PM »

It was trending that way and VA, OH would have possibly lost it's bellweather status, if Geohardt was selected as Veep in stead of Edwards, Gephardt could have won IA, NM, VA, CO, that Edwards lost. OH had a SSM ballot initiative on it in 2004, Kerry now regrets not putting Gephardt on the natl ballot than Edwards, with natl Security
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2021, 05:26:53 PM »

Like most Western states, it's just missing the small town segment of the population that has trended hard right in recent years.  The high ratio of ski resorts and nature parks to mines and oil rigs also prevented a unified rural vote from developing as in WY, ID, UT, AZ, etc. 
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Chips
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2021, 10:54:57 PM »

Denver area mostly.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2021, 12:21:37 AM »

Lots of educated people in Colorado.

Generally speaking, educated people don't like morons, let alone want to be led by them.
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Literally Just a Contrarian
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2021, 02:28:57 PM »

Gen Z actually isn’t as left wing as millennials are. However, college educated whites will be to the GOP what Hispanics will be to the Dems in the future- aka that one ex-rock solid demographic that trended heavily away from them.

What is this fantasy in conservative circles that 20 year olds despise GOP policies of destroying the environment, keeping the minimum wage low and enforcing hypocritical Evangelicalism any less than 30 year olds?

I read about it a lot on rags such as American Thinker and LifeZette, but it doesn't seem to be making much of an impact, and was certainly disproven by 2020 election exit polls.

Lmao, “exit polls” have horrible sample sizes.

Even liberal leaning exit polls show that 18-24 in 2020 voted 10 points to the right of 18-24 in 2008, however. Gen Z is not as left wing as millennials were in 2008.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2021, 12:51:09 AM »

1. Rapid growth of the Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) vote. Republicans have long assumed that as Mexican-Americans assimilate economically they will start showing more concern about taxation and spending, as has typically happened with other economic groups. This said, Mexican-Americans tend to look out for each other; well-off Mexican-Americans do not abandon the poor of their group as white people have done to poor whites in the Mountain South. They are not as atomized as Anglo whites in politics.

Note also that Mexican-American culture also assimilates people not of Mexican-American origin, and not only fellow Hispanics.

2. Colorado has become highly attractive to college-educated people. Its most famous recreational activity, skiing, attracts people of high SES. Today, SES does not clearly link to partisan affiliation as it once did except when the Right goes populist. At one time, high SES largely meant "WASP".. when about every other ethnic group was still (German-Americans possibly excepted) were poor.

Model minorities of all kinds, including middle-class Mexican-Americans, have good cause to distrust a populist demagogue like Donald Trump. I learned as a child that (1) one respects the veteran for his sacrifices, and (2) that one never mocks the handicapped.

People of high SES generally respect veterans and the handicapped.

....Maybe Colorado heads back to the center or even center-right as political coalitions change. That will take time.

 
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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2021, 01:02:36 AM »

I remember pre election when many people said Colorado would be within 10 and closer than New Mexico. I also remember people saying Virginia would vote to the left of CO, for instance (VA was D+10 and CO D+14-15).

However CO swung 9-10 points Democrat, and was a 14 point win for Biden. This is way more than anyone expected, and at this rate I think CO will vote to the left of many historically Dem states in the NE by the end of the decade.

Seriously, the only reason why that state isn’t D+20 is because of old school Republicans who are still hanging around in the suburbs in places like El Paso, Pueblo, and Douglas County, and GOP improvements among Hispanics, and also in Southern Colorado which probably helped stop the bleeding.

Was it really weed legalization or Bay Area Californians moving to the Denver area? If anyone can explain this, I’d be happy.


That's probably a lot of it. I'm just amazed how Republicans have collapsed in El Paso. It's the reverse Miami-Dade. It's become like the anti Missouri.

Trump still won El Paso County by about 11%, but yes, it did swing heavily Democratic, and Biden was the first Democrat in more than fifty years to break 40% here. The electoral map of Colorado from last year is fascinating to see:


Although Trump won more counties than Biden-county maps, as we very well know, are very deceptive (i.e. "land doesn't vote, people do"). The Plains Counties in the East and the Mountain Counties in the West where Trump got over 60%, 70%, or 80% of the vote are very sparsely populated and cast a trifling number of votes. The vast majority of Colorado's population-probably around two-thirds-lives in the Front Range Urban Corridor, which I would define as consisting of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Pueblo, and Weld Counties.

Trump only won three of these counties (Douglas, El Paso, and Weld), and the first two, as noted, swung strongly Democratic. He lost Pueblo County by about 1.9%, and lost all of the others by double digits or more. Arapahoe County voted over 60% Democratic, the first time ever, to my knowledge, that it has done so. Biden got nearly 80% in Denver and well over three-quarters in Boulder.

It was quite surprising to see El Paso get so close. Grand nearly flipping, after being a 13-point win in 2016, was also surprising. Do you think Grand could flip in 2024?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2021, 01:06:50 PM »

Surprised that only the OP has hinted at the really obvious reason here: It’s hard to find a state where interstate migration has worked more to the Democrats' advantage than this one. As evidenced by continual GOP underperformances since 2004, the type of 'educated' voter who moved into this state wasn’t exactly amenable to a pre-Trump Republican Party either. Obviously other factors are at work here, but reducing it to a Trump-era backlash among college-educated voters is grossly simplistic.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2021, 01:20:50 PM »

^ Echoing this, almost 6 out of 10 people in Colorado were not born there ... to give some perspective, only 25% of people in Ohio were born somewhere else.  That’s insane.  In 2019, 240,000 people moved to Colorado, with almost 30,000 of those being from California.  To say the population has changed drastically in the last 20 years would be a huge understatement, and when you add this to other trends ... a dramatic shift is frankly expected.
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« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2021, 03:53:08 PM »

It was quite surprising to see El Paso get so close. Grand nearly flipping, after being a 13-point win in 2016, was also surprising. Do you think Grand could flip in 2024?

Not the person you were asking but it looks like a lot of Biden's gained votes were in the southern part of Grand, in ski resort precincts like around Fraser and Winter Park. Precinct lines changed so it's hard to do direct comparisons but there were some places here where he gained 200-250 votes per precinct over Hillary and in the rest of the county he had gains more in line with rural mountainous (and not liberal) parts of the state.

The question here is do you expect voters in Fraser and Winter Park to stay put. A lot of these are temporary workers (lots of them are ski bums, service workers or recent college grads) and probably a good deal of people who cooped up in temporary homes during COVID. The area has built more housing etc. for people in the ski/recreation industry so it's possible there will be more people staying here going forward. But I think it's more likely than not that these numbers subside and the rest of the county (Kremmmling especially) defect back to Rs.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2021, 05:13:00 PM »

I remember pre election when many people said Colorado would be within 10 and closer than New Mexico. I also remember people saying Virginia would vote to the left of CO, for instance (VA was D+10 and CO D+14-15).

However CO swung 9-10 points Democrat, and was a 14 point win for Biden. This is way more than anyone expected, and at this rate I think CO will vote to the left of many historically Dem states in the NE by the end of the decade.

Seriously, the only reason why that state isn’t D+20 is because of old school Republicans who are still hanging around in the suburbs in places like El Paso, Pueblo, and Douglas County, and GOP improvements among Hispanics, and also in Southern Colorado which probably helped stop the bleeding.

Was it really weed legalization or Bay Area Californians moving to the Denver area? If anyone can explain this, I’d be happy.


That's probably a lot of it. I'm just amazed how Republicans have collapsed in El Paso. It's the reverse Miami-Dade. It's become like the anti Missouri.

If you think the swing in El Paso County is impressive, look at Georgia's 6th Congressional District (north suburbs of Atlanta), which voted for Romney by 23% and Trump in 2016 by 1.5% before flipping to Biden in 2020 by double digits.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2021, 06:35:16 PM »

I remember pre election when many people said Colorado would be within 10 and closer than New Mexico. I also remember people saying Virginia would vote to the left of CO, for instance (VA was D+10 and CO D+14-15).

However CO swung 9-10 points Democrat, and was a 14 point win for Biden. This is way more than anyone expected, and at this rate I think CO will vote to the left of many historically Dem states in the NE by the end of the decade.

Seriously, the only reason why that state isn’t D+20 is because of old school Republicans who are still hanging around in the suburbs in places like El Paso, Pueblo, and Douglas County, and GOP improvements among Hispanics, and also in Southern Colorado which probably helped stop the bleeding.

Was it really weed legalization or Bay Area Californians moving to the Denver area? If anyone can explain this, I’d be happy.


That's probably a lot of it. I'm just amazed how Republicans have collapsed in El Paso. It's the reverse Miami-Dade. It's become like the anti Missouri.

Trump still won El Paso County by about 11%, but yes, it did swing heavily Democratic, and Biden was the first Democrat in more than fifty years to break 40% here. The electoral map of Colorado from last year is fascinating to see:


Although Trump won more counties than Biden-county maps, as we very well know, are very deceptive (i.e. "land doesn't vote, people do"). The Plains Counties in the East and the Mountain Counties in the West where Trump got over 60%, 70%, or 80% of the vote are very sparsely populated and cast a trifling number of votes. The vast majority of Colorado's population-probably around two-thirds-lives in the Front Range Urban Corridor, which I would define as consisting of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Pueblo, and Weld Counties.

Trump only won three of these counties (Douglas, El Paso, and Weld), and the first two, as noted, swung strongly Democratic. He lost Pueblo County by about 1.9%, and lost all of the others by double digits or more. Arapahoe County voted over 60% Democratic, the first time ever, to my knowledge, that it has done so. Biden got nearly 80% in Denver and well over three-quarters in Boulder.

It was quite surprising to see El Paso get so close. Grand nearly flipping, after being a 13-point win in 2016, was also surprising. Do you think Grand could flip in 2024?

I wouldn't be surprised if it does. As for El Paso County, I was surprised by the extent to which Biden improved here, although in the long run, it shouldn't be so. El Paso County is the most populous county in the state-and like the rest of the Front Range Urban Corridor, has experienced tremendous growth over the past two decades. It is expected to continue growing, particularly as more people move down here from Denver to escape that city's soaring cost of living. People of a more liberal bent have been moving here, as they have to the Denver Metropolitan Area, and that will continue to alter our partisan composition. Colorado Springs, moreover, is expected to surpass Denver in population by the middle of the century.
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