Really terrible candidates can indeed lose even in a wave environment favoring their party. Look at last year's County Executive race in Northampton, PA. The archetypical swing county in the archetypical swing state.
The Republican candidate in that race was a political neophyte named Steve Lynch. Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who threatened to send armed "strong men" to intimidate school boards. He lost by 12 points, but should have won comfortably based on the fundamentals. Candidate quality does matter, and I will live by that mantra forever.
Interestingly, I think that race may have been a window into an alternate universe where Amanda Chase was the nominee in VA.
Between Kari Lake and Blake Masters, I'm getting 2010 Colorado deja vu from Arizona this year.
And it makes sense because like CO, the AZ GOP is so far to the right of the state and the AZ Dems are very disciplined and organized. I would not be surprised to see Kelly and certainly Hobbs inch by even while the Reps take AZ 6 and 2, give Stanton a good scare, and win dozens of House seats across the nation. In fact, it's what I am willing to wager will end up happening.
Colorado was a much much bluer state though being Obama +9 while Arizona is only Biden+0.3, also I wouldn't really call the Dems disciplined after they just censured Sinema.
