AZ-GOV 2022: Yee in

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yee/Hobbs rankings in that OHPI poll


Registered voters, Democrats, Independents, Republicans

Power rankings
Hobbs   #1     #3   #1   #24
Yee       #3   #19   #5     #6


Name ID
Hobbs   83%   85%   78%   85%
Yee       73%   73%   70%   75%

Net favorability
Hobbs   21%   39%   19%    5%
Yee       15%   20%   11%  14%

Demographic/Experience score
Hobbs   6.8   9.2   5.8   5.6
Yee       6.9   5.9   5.8   8.7

[Chips]

Let's see how this goes. I foresee a close race in AZ next year for governor.

[Lognog]

Yee seemed like a strong challenger that could distance herself from Trump without alienating any MAGAites, but it looks like she's gone super far right. Fine for 2014 Arizona, but I don't think it will work

[Spectator]

She’s probably the best candidate.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1397253213586329604?s=21

I think Paul Penzone, the popular Maricopa County Sheriff, would be the best Democrat candidate for a general election, but he doesn’t seem to have shown public interest in statewide office. He has twice in a row been the top vote getter in Maricopa County in presidential election years.

[S019]

She’s probably the best candidate.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1397253213586329604?s=21

I think Paul Penzone, the popular Maricopa County Sheriff, would be the best Democrat candidate for a general election, but he doesn’t seem to have shown public interest in statewide office. He has twice in a row been the top vote getter in Maricopa County in presidential election years.

tbh, his 2016 performance was because his opponent was Joe Arpaio

[Spectator]

She’s probably the best candidate.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1397253213586329604?s=21

I think Paul Penzone, the popular Maricopa County Sheriff, would be the best Democrat candidate for a general election, but he doesn’t seem to have shown public interest in statewide office. He has twice in a row been the top vote getter in Maricopa County in presidential election years.

tbh, his 2016 performance was because his opponent was Joe Arpaio

True, but he won by a similar margin in 2020 against someone else entirely, so I don’t think it can be chalked up to Arpaio only.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1399908753449709569?s=20

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1400093545260752904?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

As expected... hereby endorsed.

Tossup/tilt R -> Tossup/tilt R

[Lambsbread]

Endorsed. Not sure if she'll have a shot in the general, but she showed a lot of integrity during last year's foolishness.

[Not Me, Us]

Endorsed. Probably the strongest Dem candidate, but I didn't think her announcement video was particularly good.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

0:26 into her announcement ad and it's already boomer conspiracy theories. Honestly kinda impressive.

Lake = endorsed! (I'm pulling for a Dems vs. Q Candidates midterm bloodbath. True test of Biden AND we get to see the GOP show its true colors. Win-Win.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A sane GOPer would have to run to the right in the primary to have a strong chance to begin with.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Endorsed. Probably the strongest Dem candidate, but I didn't think her announcement video was particularly good.

Serious question: Has a campaign announcement video ever positively helped anyone? As in help to gain momentum or boost support right out of the gate?

Between Yee going full MAGA and the tepidness of Hobbs' video, I'm not sure they do any more harm or good that a simple tweet could do.

[Not Me, Us]

Endorsed. Probably the strongest Dem candidate, but I didn't think her announcement video was particularly good.

Serious question: Has a campaign announcement video ever positively helped anyone? As in help to gain momentum or boost support right out of the gate?

Between Yee going full MAGA and the tepidness of Hobbs' video, I'm not sure they do any more harm or good that a simple tweet could do.

They really don't matter in terms of influencing people's votes, but they can set the tone of the campaign. Both videos are pretty clear indicators of the campaigns Hobbs and Yee are going to run, so I think they're useful in that respect. I also do think that an especially good announcement video can go viral and do a lot of work for a candidate in terms of fundraising and name recognition, but that's the exception rather than the rule. In this particular case, I don't think either video accomplished that.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hobbs is the strongest candidate here, but I think she'll be an underdog against Yee, and a narrow favorite Lake, given it's a Biden midterm, in a still light pink state.

Hobbs vs. Yee: Lean R

Hobbs vs. Lake: Lean D

[Spectator]

I had to Google who Kari Lake even was.

[Not Me, Us]

I had to Google who Kari Lake even was.

I had to as well. Apparently she's just a random local Fox News affiliate anchor. I doubt she has any chance against Yee.

[Spectator]

I had to Google who Kari Lake even was.

I had to as well. Apparently she's just a random local Fox News affiliate anchor. I doubt she has any chance against Yee.

To be fair, no one knows who their state Treasurer is either.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1405169590582251525?s=21

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1405169590582251525?s=21

This makes the primary pretty interesting. I still think Yee is the favorite, but Salmon stands a real chance given how batsh** the AZGOP is.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1405169590582251525?s=21

This makes the primary pretty interesting. I still think Yee is the favorite, but Salmon stands a real chance given how batsh** the AZGOP is.

Yeah, but I assume Salmon would be the weaker general election candidate. If he were nominated, I'd rate the race as tossup rather than Tilt/Lean Republican.

The Democratic nomination is probably settled with Katie Hobbs in the ring. Seems like she's the best candidate to take the seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users think this is Lean R, it's not, it's a pure Tossup just like Whitmer is in trouble and OR a moderate R like Knute can win and we can win KS, WI and OH with Blue Dog Ryan

[Biden 2024]

So is this Lake person really gonna win this?

[SnowLabrador]

So is this Lake person really gonna win this?

Probably. Get ready for the Arizona 2024 election results to be overturned if Biden wins the state. Sinema is digging her own grave unless she plans to switch parties.