Why did John Cornyn do so much better than Ted Cruz did?

[Cyrusman]

Cornyn won his race by 10 points while Cruz barely won by 2 points which is honestly embarrassing for a Republican in Texas.
Why did Cornyn out perform him so much?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

He was a more obscure Senator, and thus harder to demagogue for the other side. His Democratic opponent also had a harder time raising her profile due to Cornyn’s obscurity and inability to raise money based on facing him the way Beto was able to against Cruz.

[ultraviolet]

Cruz is higher profile but Cornyn is way more popular. Plus, Cruz’s electoral environment was harsher and he had a stronger opponent

[President Johnson]

Three basic reasons:

1. Cornyn is far less controversial than Cruz. He's almost equally right leaning, but he's has more calm appearance making him look like a boring standard Republican

2. MJ Hegar wasn't as good of a candidate than Beto was back in 2018. He ran a very good campaign.

3. At the congressional level, 2020 wasn't as Democratic as 2018 was. Downballot results were a disappointment or at least didn't meet expectations and polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact Biden made a clear indication that he was gonna go after oil and we lost MT, AK, KS and TX, that's as simple as that.

OH, IA, NC and FL are wave insurence in 2022 but they are much more winnable than the oil states

If Cruz had anything to do with giving tours of Insurrectionists, Crenshaw will Senator in 2024 not Cruz, he also voted against certificate of Election of Biden, the Commission will get to the bottom of Ted Cruz even if it's a party line vote in Commission, he won't be Prez

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly, people might not be inclined to believe this because they preconceive Cruz being a weak candidate, but they both performed about the baseline for the statewide congressional vote for the years they ran in.

In 2018, Cruz won by 2.6%, House R's statewide won by 3.4%, for an underperformance of 0.8%

In 2020, Cornyn won by 9.6%, House R's statewide won by 9.3%, for an overperformance of 0.3%.

Cruz did underperform Cornyn on an even playing field, but most of his smaller margin can be attributed to the 2018 environment rather than being a weaker candidate.

[lfromnj]

Honestly, people might not be inclined to believe this because they preconceive Cruz being a weak candidate, but they both performed about the baseline for the statewide congressional vote for the years they ran in.

In 2018, Cruz won by 2.6%, House R's statewide won by 3.4%, for an underperformance of 0.8%

In 2020, Cornyn won by 9.6%, House R's statewide won by 9.3%, for an overperformance of 0.3%.

Cruz did underperform Cornyn on an even playing field, but most of his smaller margin can be attributed to the 2018 environment rather than being a weaker candidate.

2018 had 2 or 3 uncontested D's.  I don't think 2020 had any.

[Roll Roons]

Honestly, people might not be inclined to believe this because they preconceive Cruz being a weak candidate, but they both performed about the baseline for the statewide congressional vote for the years they ran in.

In 2018, Cruz won by 2.6%, House R's statewide won by 3.4%, for an underperformance of 0.8%

In 2020, Cornyn won by 9.6%, House R's statewide won by 9.3%, for an overperformance of 0.3%.

Cruz did underperform Cornyn on an even playing field, but most of his smaller margin can be attributed to the 2018 environment rather than being a weaker candidate.

2018 had 2 or 3 uncontested D's.  I don't think 2020 had any.

There were actually 4 seats where no Republican ran in 2018 - TX-09, TX-20, TX-28, TX-30. Three safe blue, minority-heavy urban districts plus Cuellar's seat in the RGV. And yeah, both parties contested every seat in 2020.

[UWS]

Because he's more likable than Cruz.

[Skill and Chance]

Honestly, people might not be inclined to believe this because they preconceive Cruz being a weak candidate, but they both performed about the baseline for the statewide congressional vote for the years they ran in.

In 2018, Cruz won by 2.6%, House R's statewide won by 3.4%, for an underperformance of 0.8%

In 2020, Cornyn won by 9.6%, House R's statewide won by 9.3%, for an overperformance of 0.3%.

Cruz did underperform Cornyn on an even playing field, but most of his smaller margin can be attributed to the 2018 environment rather than being a weaker candidate.

That's a pretty notable level of split-ticket voting by modern standards since Biden only won by 5.6%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In 2018: Cruz did 11.2 points better in Texas Senate race than the national house margin

In 2020: Cornyn did 12.7 points better in Texas Senate Race than the national house margin


So while Cornyn still did relatively 1.5 points better than Cruz did , the vast majority of the 7 points difference is from the fact that national environment was 5.5 points more Republican in 2020 than it was in 2018.

[lfromnj]

In 2018: Cruz did 11.2 points better in Texas Senate race than the national house margin

In 2020: Cornyn did 12.7 points better in Texas Senate Race than the national house margin


So while Cornyn still did relatively 1.5 points better than Cruz did , the vast majority of the 7 points difference is from the fact that national environment was 5.5 points more Republican in 2020 than it was in 2018.

The 2020 house vote was relatively correct. 2018 had  36 more uncontested Ds than Rs. Even including Florida's weird rules and its like 20.

[S019]

MJ Hegar raised way less money than O'Rourke, 2018 was a much better year for Democrats than 2020, and John Cornyn was not anywhere near as hated as Ted Cruz was.

[Skill and Chance]

In 2018: Cruz did 11.2 points better in Texas Senate race than the national house margin

In 2020: Cornyn did 12.7 points better in Texas Senate Race than the national house margin


So while Cornyn still did relatively 1.5 points better than Cruz did , the vast majority of the 7 points difference is from the fact that national environment was 5.5 points more Republican in 2020 than it was in 2018.

The 2020 house vote was relatively correct. 2018 had  36 more uncontested Ds than Rs. Even including Florida's weird rules and its like 20.

How much would contesting those districts have mattered?  Is it worth 1 or 2% of the PV?

[lfromnj]

In 2018: Cruz did 11.2 points better in Texas Senate race than the national house margin

In 2020: Cornyn did 12.7 points better in Texas Senate Race than the national house margin


So while Cornyn still did relatively 1.5 points better than Cruz did , the vast majority of the 7 points difference is from the fact that national environment was 5.5 points more Republican in 2020 than it was in 2018.

The 2020 house vote was relatively correct. 2018 had  36 more uncontested Ds than Rs. Even including Florida's weird rules and its like 20.

How much would contesting those districts have mattered?  Is it worth 1 or 2% of the PV?

Yeah I think adjusted it was close to 2 points.

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly, people might not be inclined to believe this because they preconceive Cruz being a weak candidate, but they both performed about the baseline for the statewide congressional vote for the years they ran in.

In 2018, Cruz won by 2.6%, House R's statewide won by 3.4%, for an underperformance of 0.8%

In 2020, Cornyn won by 9.6%, House R's statewide won by 9.3%, for an overperformance of 0.3%.

Cruz did underperform Cornyn on an even playing field, but most of his smaller margin can be attributed to the 2018 environment rather than being a weaker candidate.

2018 had 2 or 3 uncontested D's.  I don't think 2020 had any.

There were actually 4 seats where no Republican ran in 2018 - TX-09, TX-20, TX-28, TX-30. Three safe blue, minority-heavy urban districts plus Cuellar's seat in the RGV. And yeah, both parties contested every seat in 2020.

That is true, so you can probably add a point of two to the statewide underperformance for Cruz. Still, most of Cruz's lack of margin is year-based.

[Xing]

It was a better year for Republicans, he faced a somewhat weaker opponent, and he had an easier time looking good and """"""moderate"""""" compared to Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

The main reasons have already been stated by ElectionsGuy. Now, as to why Hegar had less "star appeal" than O'Rourke or why many voters were more likely to be well-disposed to O'Rourke than Hegar, well, it doesn’t exactly take a rocket scientist to figure that one out, now does it?

[VAR]

The main reasons have already been stated by ElectionsGuy. Now, as to why Hegar had less "star appeal" than O'Rourke or why many voters were more likely to be well-disposed to O'Rourke than Hegar, well, it doesn’t exactly take a rocket scientist to figure that one out, now does it?

"Beto" is very attractive and charismatic, and while Hegar may be a Purple Heart veteran with a very inspiring life story who rides a motorcycle, she is very shrill and her voice is grating IMO.

[MT Treasurer]

"Beto" is very attractive and charismatic, and while Hegar may be a Purple Heart veteran with a very inspiring life story who rides a motorcycle, she is very shrill and her voice is grating IMO.

"Beto" actually focused on kitchen-table issues in his run and didn’t adhere to misguided Washington notions of 'centrism' that do nothing but alienate the D base without appealing to actual swing voters, whereas Hegar's campaign was too consultant-driven and scripted — it just oozed inauthenticity IMO. If Kathleen Williams, Nicole Galloway, and MJ Hegar had followed the issue- and ideology-based Tester/Kander/O'Rourke 'New Deal' playbook of giving people a reason to vote FOR them instead of merely parroting talking points fed to them by out-of-touch Third Way D.C. party strategists, they wouldn’t have lost and I’d be calling them total "rock stars" now as well IMO.

[Skill and Chance]

In 2018: Cruz did 11.2 points better in Texas Senate race than the national house margin

In 2020: Cornyn did 12.7 points better in Texas Senate Race than the national house margin


So while Cornyn still did relatively 1.5 points better than Cruz did , the vast majority of the 7 points difference is from the fact that national environment was 5.5 points more Republican in 2020 than it was in 2018.

The 2020 house vote was relatively correct. 2018 had  36 more uncontested Ds than Rs. Even including Florida's weird rules and its like 20.

How much would contesting those districts have mattered?  Is it worth 1 or 2% of the PV?

Yeah I think adjusted it was close to 2 points.

Meaning it was really only a D+7 year, equivalent to 2008 presidential?

[WD]

"Beto" is very attractive and charismatic, and while Hegar may be a Purple Heart veteran with a very inspiring life story who rides a motorcycle, she is very shrill and her voice is grating IMO.

"Beto" actually focused on kitchen-table issues in his run and didn’t adhere to misguided Washington notions of 'centrism' that do nothing but alienate the D base without appealing to actual swing voters, whereas Hegar's campaign was too consultant-driven and scripted — it just oozed inauthenticity IMO. If Kathleen Williams, Nicole Galloway, and MJ Hegar had followed the issue- and ideology-based Tester/Kander/O'Rourke 'New Deal' playbook of giving people a reason to vote FOR them instead of merely parroting talking points fed to them by out-of-touch Third Way D.C. party strategists, they wouldn’t have lost and I’d be calling them total "rock stars" now as well IMO.

Very good points all around, but IMO another reason Cornyn didn’t underperform Trump by 10-15 was because Hegar was too condescending, and wasn’t “relatable enough”. Oil workers in Midland want a tough talkin, no nonsense, #populist that can rattle down kitchen table issues off the top of their head (Like the man himself, Jon Tester). So they had no choice but to vote for a soothing, charismatic, likeable, guy like John Cornyn.

That’s IMO guys.

[Mr. Smith]

2018 was a D+20 or so year in the Senate...despite the R gains. Cruz was +17 more than that standard.

2020 was an R+2 year for the Senate, despite the D gains.   Cornyn was only +7 more than that standard.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

2018 was a D+20 or so year in the Senate...despite the R gains. Cruz was +17 more than that standard.

2020 was an R+2 year for the Senate, despite the D gains.   Cornyn was only +7 more than that standard.

This is misleading evidence. Different states were up in 2018 compared to 2020. California and New York were up in 2018 and gave Dems a huge advantage in the Senate PV.

[Roll Roons]

2018 was a D+20 or so year in the Senate...despite the R gains. Cruz was +17 more than that standard.

2020 was an R+2 year for the Senate, despite the D gains.   Cornyn was only +7 more than that standard.

This is misleading evidence. Different states were up in 2018 compared to 2020. California and New York were up in 2018 and gave Dems a huge advantage in the Senate PV.

Especially considering the fact that the CA general was between two Democrats.