Parrotguy's Random Israeli (and possibly other) Scenarios

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hey folks!

So I realized that I constantly have interesting ideas for Israeli politics TLs in my head, but there's no thread to post them aside from megathreads that might or might not be fully related, like "alternate cabinet lists" or "alternate Presidents lists". I also have no time to make each of them into a full-fledged timeline.

So I made this thread, where I'll post scenarios that consist of a few posts each at most. They'll probably be Israeli politics scenarios, but I might throw in other stuff if I want. Hope someone enjoys and reads this!

If you have any comments, please do post them! As I'm sure other writers agree, our fuel is your encouragement and discussion

I'll start off with a post I had prepared for my other timeline, "Boring is Back", but will probably not be posted now that... things happen.

The Scenario: Lapid-Bennet Change Government is formed.

BREAKING NEWS: Netanyahu foes strike coalition deal to form government, ending long Bibi era in Israel
The new government will consist of Yesh Atid, Yamina, Labor, Blue & White, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope, Meretz and outside support from Islamist Ra'am; Meet the new leaders of Israel- Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and the next Prime Minister Yair Lapid

The new governing duo of Israel, Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid

13/5/2021

TEL AVIV - Riki's face is glistening with tears. She's been crying, but her expression is happy. "We've been waiting for this for years," she says. "I've been scared for my country. Now that he's gone, we can start anew." She lives in Rishon Lezion, a city near Tel Aviv, but is a regular participant in the countless anti-Netanyahu protests held in Jerusalem, near the iconic Balfour Street Prime Minister's residence. The protest movement was a major driving force behind the Israeli opposition to "King Bibi", fueling the urgency around the removal of the Prime Minister as the number 1 goal of the opposition. Now, despite crowning a politician to Netanyahu's right, the protestors are ecstatic.

Miriam isn't shedding any tears, but neither is she happy with the recent development. "We're making a big mistake," she warns, "Bibi is a leader. He had great ties with the world, he knew how to manage the economy, and he knew how to protect us from our enemies. Now, we don't know what will happen. I remember what happened the last time the left was in power, God save us." Miriam hails from Sderot, the city closest to Gaza that suffered many Hamas rockets during Netanyahu's many years in office but still votes for him by a decisive margin like many other periphery cities.

Riki and Miriam represent the great divide of Israeli politics the past few years- fans of Netanyahu who don't see an alternative to his leadership, and bitter opponents from the left, center and right who view him as a threat to democracy. Now that he won't be named Prime Minister for the first time in over a decade, will the country be able to move on? It's unclear.

Netanyahu, just yesterday, vowed to remain Opposition Leader in the Knesset. His Likud ally, former Coalition Chair Miki Zohar, said that Netanyahu would "make life hell" for the new government. And with the Presidential election approaching in a few weeks- a process where Knesset members hold a secret vote- the soon-to-be former Prime Minister might try to run in order to secure the Presidential immunity from trial.

But while he looms large, Netanyahu also serves as the glue for a very unnatural coalition consisting of two right-wing parties, three centrist parties, and two left wing parties. In order to secure a government, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid had to compromise on a lot and introduce odd mechanisms. For one, he'd be the leader of the largest party in the government, but for its first two years, the 7-seat Yamina leader Naftali Bennet will serve as Prime Minister. Additionally, the government will put a freeze on issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and judiciary reform, while giving Yamina and New Hope Ministers increased voting powers in government meetings to maintain balance.

But despite seemingly impossible odds, some Israelis are expecting the new government to last. "Both sides have an interest to maintain it," says Dani Dayan, former Israeli Consul to New York and member of Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party. "Bennet wants to remain Prime Minister for his whole two years to present accomplishments to the base, and Lapid wants to get to his own two years. Gideon is a man of his word, and he won't let any side get away with dirty tricks."

If the government can agree on a two-year budget twice, it would guarantee its survival barring a successful motion of no confidence. And with a possible cushion of support from the Joint Arab List's 6 seats should Bennet decide to bail after two years, Lapid, a longtime Netanyahu opponent who compromised again and again and played a long game, might finally become Prime Minister.

"Everyone thought it impossible, including me." Ofer Shelah, a former MK and Lapid ally turned rival, tells us. "But I think he did it."


Israel's 36th Government

Coalition: Yesh Atid (17), Labor (9), Kahol Lavan (7), Yamina (7), Yisrael Beiteinu (7), New Hope (6), Meretz (5)
Confidence-and-supply: Ra'am (4)
Total: 63 Seats


Prime Minister: Naftali Bennet (Yamina) 2 years, Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) 2 years
Foreign Minister and Replacement Prime Minister: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) 2 years, Naftali Bennet (Yamina) 2 years
Defense Minister: Benny Gantz (Kahol Lavan)
Finance Minister: Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Justice Minister: Gideon Sa'ar (New Hope)
Home Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Education Minister: Yifat Shasha Biton (New Hope)
Internal Security Minister: Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Economy and Industry Minister: Ayelet Shaked (New Right)
Transportation Minister: Nitzan Horovitz (Meretz)
Health Minister: Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)
Construction and Housing Minister: Evgeny Sova (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Emily Moati (Labor)
Energy and Water Minister: Ze'ev Elkin (New Hope)
Communications and Media Minister: Karin Elharar (Yesh Atid)
Agriculture Minister: Michael Biton (Kahol Lavan)
Environmental Protection Minister: Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Pnina Tamano-Shata (Kahol Lavan)
Culture and Sports Minister: Yoel Razvozov (Yesh Atid)
Tourism Minister: Eli Avidar (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Science and Technology Minister: Merav Ben Ari (Yesh Atid)
Social Equality Minister: Merav Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Jerusalem and Diaspora Minister: Nir Orbach (Yamina)
Religious Affairs Minister: Matan Kahana (Yamina)

Speaker of the Knesset: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Coalition Chair: Mickey Levi (Yesh Atid)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Elazar Stern (Yesh Atid)
Finance Committee Chair: Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Yair Golan (Meretz)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Yoaz Hendel (New Hope)
Immigration, Integration and Diaspora Committee Chair: Gilad Kariv (Labor)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Idit Silman (Yamina)
Economy Committee Chair: Sharen Haskel (New Hope)
Special Committee for Arab Affairs Chair: Mansour Abbas (Ra'am)

National Security Affairs Committee:
By Law- Prime Minister Naftali Bennet (Yamina), Foreign Minister Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid), Defense Minister Benny Gantz (Kahol Lavan), Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu), Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar (New Hope), Internal Security Minister Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Additions: Home Minister Merav Michaeli (Labor), Transportation Minister Nitzan Horovitz (Meretz), Economy Minister Ayelet Shaked (New Right), Health Minister Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Another scenario of mine I'd like to post here:
In 2021, a "Change government" is unable to form in Israel as MKs Ayelet Shaked, Abir Kara and Amichai Chikli from Yamina refuse to support it and join Likud. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crosses many red lines in an attempt to cling to power. Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin from Likud refuses to hold a Presidential election, becoming the interim President when President Rivlin's term ends in June 2021. He refuses to comply with Supreme Court orders calling for an election and, as governing partner Benny Gantz protests heavily, government meetings cease. In the fifth election, Netanyahu suffers another defeat as the anti-Netanyahu bloc gains a clear majority and a clear shot at forming a government:

2021 (Second) Israeli Knesset Election (Final Results)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 28 Seats (-5)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 21 Seats (+4)
Democratic Party (Merav Michaeli)- 13 Seats (+-0)
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 10 Seats (+2)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 9 Seats (+-0)
Yamina-New Hope- (Naftali Bennet)- 8 Seats (-2)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 8 Seats (+2)
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 6 Seats (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 6 Seats (-1)
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats (+-0)
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats (+1)

Netanyahu's opponents now numbered at 69 seats, with Bennet and Sa'ar's party, and could form a government in several constellations. But the unthinkable happened when interim President Levin gave the government formation mandate to Netanyahu, claiming the election results were fraudulent, and the Prime Minister in turn announced a special committee to investigate the issue.

Huge protests erupted across the country, with a few Likud Party members leaving it but many staying and supporting the power grab. Violent clashes between Netanyahu supporters and opponents started in Jerusalem, with dangerous elements such as the hilltop youths instigating. After firing Gantz and all Kahol Lavan Ministers, Netanyahu announced that the election results were null, refused to swear in the new Knesset, and continued to ignore the Supreme Court, declaring it illegitimate. He then announced a state of emergency due to the violent clashes, and cancelled his own corruption trial.

The camel's back finally broke. In one dark night, IDF forces led by Defense Minister Benny Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi stormed the Knesset and the Prime Minister's residence in Balfour Street, Jerusalem.

Former Prime Minister Netanyahu, along with his wife Sarah and son Yair, were arrested by the army. Others arrested during the coup d'etat were Knesset Speaker and Interim President Yariv Levin, Internal Security Minister Amir Ohana, Finance Minister Yisrael Katz, MK Miki Zohar, pretender Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, Construction Minister Ya'akov Litzman, Home Minister Aryeh Deri, Health Minister Yuli Edlestein, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, Digital Minister David Amsalem, MK Bezalel Smotrich, Noam Party leader and MK Avi Maoz, MK Simcha Rotman, Kahanist MK Itamar Ben Gvir, Kahanist militia leaders Baruch Marzel and Bentzi Gopstein, Police Chief Kobi Shabtai, Mosaad Director Yossi Cohen, State Comptroller Matanyahu Engelman, Brigadier General Ofer Winter and others suspected of loyalty to the ousted Prime Minister.

With the shocking coup d'etat done, the IDF had to establish an emergency government. It consisted mostly of retired Israeli politicians and opposition party leaders, with care not to include current army generals, to try and avoid criticisms of a military government.

Knesset Speaker and Interim President of Israel: Benjamin Ze'ev Begin (Yamina-New Hope)

General Governor: IDF Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi (Independent)
Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Benny Gantz (Kahol Lavan)
Justice Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)
Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Merav Michaeli (Democratic Party)
Economy and Industry Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Naftali Bennet (Yamina-New Hope)
Foreign Minister: Fmr. Minister Tzipi Livni (Hatnuah/Independent)
Finance Minister: Fmr. Minister Dan Meridor (Independent)
Education, Culture and Sports Minister: Fmr. IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot (independent)
Internal Security Minister: Fmr. Minister and IDF Chief Shaul Mofaz (Kadima/Independent)
Health Minister: Fmr. Health Ministry Chair Moshe Bar Siman Tov (Independent)
Energy and Water Minister: Fmr. Minister and IDF Chief Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon (Telem/Independent)
Communications and Media Minister: Fmr. Minister Limor Livnat (Independent)
Transportation Minister: Fmr. Minister and IDF Chief Gabi Ashkenazi (Kahol Lavan/Independent)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Fmr. Minister Ofir Pines Paz (Labor/Independent)
Construction and Housing Minister: Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Agriculture Minister: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Environmental Protection Minister: Yair Golan (Democratic Party)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Pnina Tamano Shata (Kahol Lavan)

Knesset Committee Chair: Karin Elharar (Yesh Atid)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)
Finance Committee Chair: Gideon Sa'ar (Yamina-New Hope)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Nitzan Horovitz (Democratic Party)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Ze'ev Elkin (Yamina-New Hope)
Economy Committee Chair: Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Omer Bar Lev (Democratic Party)

[BigVic]

Watched. Always love your work and timelines. Stay safe.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part I)



In November 4th, 1995, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was holding a large rally for peace in the Kings of Israel Square, Tel Aviv. After its end, while leaving through the crowd, the Prime Minister was shot three times- one bullet hitting his back, another his shoulder, and the third hit one of his security guards. Rabin was quickly brought to the hospital in a critical condition, where the best doctors in Israel fought for his life for hours, through the night. Miraculously, the bullets didn't hit fatally, and Rabin survived with no long-term damage. His assailant, far-right law student Yigal Amir, was immediately arrested and after a trial, sent to prison for life.

The assassination attempt sent shockwaves through Israeli society. Right-wing protests against Rabin's government slowed down as the main message became the rejection of hatred, incitement and political polarization. However, the Prime Minister and his closest circle also realized that the polarization would come back if they keep pushing for a final peace deal with the Palestiniansm and that time was running short to reach such a deal before the Israeli public turns against it. Quickly enough, agreements to formalize the steps to achieve the goals of the Oslo Accords were signed, including the evacuation of Hebron from most of its Jewish population. But the negotiations for a final settlement were going slowly, dragged by a reluctant Arafat, and terrorist attacks by Islamist organizations such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad were creating tensions.

Nonetheless, in the 1996 Israeli Election, Rabin's Labor Party won in a resounding success, owing to his popularity as Prime Minister and the sympathy gained from the assassination attempt.

Israeli 1996 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Yitzhak Rabin)- 45 Seats ↑ (+1)
Likud-Gesher-Tzomet (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 26 Seats ↓ (-14)
Meretz (Yossi Sarid)- 10 Seats ↓ (-2)
Mafdal (Zevulun Hammer)- 9 Seats ↑ (+2)
Shas (Aryeh Dri)- 9 Seats ↑ (+3)
Yisrael BaAliyah (Natan Sharansky)- 8 Seats (new)
Hadash-Balad (Hashem Mahameed)- 4 Seats ↑ (+1)
United Torah Judaism (Meir Porush)- 4 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Ra'am-Mada (Abdulmalik Dehamshe)- 3 Seats ↑ (+1)
Moledet (Rehavam Ze'evi)- 2 Seats ↓ (-1)

Israeli 1996 Prime Ministreal Election (Results)
Yitzhak Rabin (Labor Party)- 56.3% ✓
Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud-Gesher-Tzomet)- 43.7%

Under Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership, Likud declined to a level not seen since the early 70s. This was due to the public viewing Netanyahu as responsible for not fighting the incitement against his rival, Prime Minister Rabin, in addition to personal scandals regarding Netanyahu's marriage life. Many Likud voters went to the right-wing religios zionist Mafdal, the Sephardic Haredi Shas and even Sharansky's post-USSR immigrant party, Yisrael BaAliyah. Rabin's popularity gave his party a very strong result, even as the left itself slightly declined. In the Prime Minister election, however, ended with a win that was narrower than expected for Rabin, just over 10% while early polls showed a 20% lead, which was viewed by his circle as proof that the Israeli public was moving right on the peace process and time was of the essence.

The formation of a government was a complicated affair, however- Labor and Meretz amounted 55 seats together, and would have to join with another party to form a majority. Shas, the natural addition, left the previous Rabin government after the Oslo Accords and was opposed to Meretz on social issues, but was easier to lure with money. But in the end, Rabin decided to sign a coalition deal with Sharansky's Yisrael BaAliyah, viewed as a centrist party, and lead a three-party coalition. In addition, the two MKs from the relatively moderate Arab Mada Party decided to vote for Rabin's government, giving it 65 fingers, 5 more than needed for a majority. Meretz leader Yossi Sarid became Education Minister while Sharansky was appointed Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. At Labour, Peres returned to the Foreign Ministry, former IDF Chief Ehud Barak became Defense Minister, and Avraham Shochat remained Finance Minister.

In Likud, following the electoral failure, Netanyahu was faced with a leadership challenge by multiple major figures in the party. The candidates against him were the experienced former Defense and Foreign Minister Moshe Arnes, Retired General Yitzhak Mordechai and Former Foreign Minister and major Likud figure David Levy. Realizing his situation, with polls showing him third or fourth and not passing into the second round, Netanyahu decided to retire instead of facing a humiliating defeat. After he dropped out, several others jumped into the race- former Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert and MK Silvan Shalom.

Sharon, considered the frontrunner, was surprised when the first round's results gave him only the third place, with Levy and Arnes advancing to the second round. Levy wasn't a surprise, but Arnes was seen as a statement by Likud members that they want an experienced, stable hand after a big personality like Netanyahu, which Sharon certainly has.

Likud Leadership election, 1996 (First Round)
Fmr. Minister David Levy- 31.2%✓
Fmr. Minister Moshe Arnes- 24.8% ✓
Fmr. Minister Ariel Sharon- 23.5%
Mayor Ehud Olmert- 13.6%
MK Silvan Shalom- 4.3%
Ret. General Yitzhak Mordechai- 2.6%

In the second round, another surprise came. Levy, long considered a heir to Likud leadership, was harmed by his recent defection to his own Gesher Party and quick return to Likud, and Arnes was seen as a strong and experienced leader with hawkish positions. Arnes won by a decisive margin, collecting support from most Sharon, Olmert and Mordechai voters, while only Shalom endorsed Levy.

Likud Leadership election, 1996 (Second Round)
Fmr. Minister Moshe Arnes- 61.3% ✓
Fmr. Minister David Levy- 38.7%

With this, one of the most consequential terms in Israeli history began. Rabin promised his new partners from Yisrael BaAliyah to be cautious, but his eyes were squarely on the prize- a solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part II)



The Rabin Government's biggest challenge from the start was convincing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat that his best option was peace. That was the mindset among the small circle making the decisions in regards to the Israeli policy on the issue- Prime Minister Rabin, Foreign Minister Peres and Defense Minister Barak. The biggest question was how. A minority were convinced Arafat was already aiming for peace, but most experts told them that his strategy was still the long-term plan to get rid of the Jewish state in its entirety.

Rabin decided on an aggressive strategy, applauded by his more right-wing government partners. First, the IDF sent signals to Arafat that Israel views the Oslo Accords as temporary agreements and Israel wouldn't hesitate taking over the West Bank again if the Palestinian leadership doesn't cooperate. Second, Israeli intelligence was providing support to moderate Palestinian leaders, chief among them was Mohammad Dahlan, head of the Palestinian Preventive Security Forces. And third, in early 1997 the Rabin Government responded to a wave of terror attacks by sending forces into the West Bank and Gaza for an operation named Magen Israel, "Shield of Israel", aimed at routing the terrorist cells of Hamas and other Islamist organizations. Despite Arafat's objections, Dahlan's forces often aided the IDF, leading to a very effective weakening of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad and putting further pressure on Arafat.

Weeks after the operation, direct negotiations between Foreign Minister Peres and Palestinian Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat resumed, moderated by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Rabin's aim was to reach a nearly-final deal with the Palestinians and then strike the deal in a summit with many other Arab leaders. The negotiations took the better part of a year, with Israel continuing to pressure Arafat with the threat of military intervention and the internal support of Dahlan for the negotiations. Rabin also faced internal pressure, as the right continued to protest against the peace negotiations, and most members of his Yisrael BaAliyah government partners were unsatisfied. But he was able to keep them quiet, asking for a chance to strike out a deal that would be good for Israel.

Towards the end of 1997, Peres, Erekat and Albright shocked the world by presenting what was the draft of an agreement. It included the withdrawal of Israel from all settlement areas in the Gaza Strip, and most settlements in the West Bank and Arab neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem, but kept in Israel several older and bigger settlement blocs such as Ariel, Gush Etzion, Gush Edumim and several of the areas closer to the border in the Binyamin Mountains. In exchance, the new Palestinian country received land swaps to the southwest of the West Bank and the southeast of Gaza. "The borders aren't beautiful," Peres joked during the celebratory press conference, "but I believe and hope that the coexistence and peace to come are beautiful." Remaining undecided were the fates of several disputed Jerusalem neighbourhoods such as Sheikh Jarah and the specific security arrangements in the city, the magnitude of the Israeli presence in the Jordan Valley, and the issue of Palestinian refugees, which the sides said would be decided at a later date.

Though the declaration was met with global applause, internally it was a lot more complicated- Arafat and Dahlan had to suppress a new wave of terror and resistance from the weakened Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and in Israel a political crisis broke out when government partner Yisrael BaAliyah broke up- right-wingers Yuli Edlestein and Yuri Stern announced immediate opposition to the government, left-winger Roman Bronfman announced he will support the agreement no matter what, and party leader Natan Sharnsky, along with members Michael Noodleman, Hen Yitzhak, Marina Solodkin and Zvi Weinberg eventually decided to "wait and see".

With the government weakened, Rabin went on the the next stage- a global summit for an Israeli-Arab peace deal. Hoping to vastly improve on the failed Madrid Summit of 1992, Rabin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, and French President Jacques Chirac invited leaders of all Arab League countries, as well as many other world leaders, to the Paris Summit of 1998. Arafat initially fiercely opposed such a summit, threatening to collapse the deal entirely, but was by then too tied into the details of the deal presented to the world to turn back. The reason was that a summit would mean more pressure to make a final decision on the deal, and the prospect of a deal between Israel and the rest of the Arab world would potentially end any chance for dismantling the Jewish state in the future. Eventually, Arafat had to okay the summit and it began as planned in March 1998.

Another major issue was Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, who refused to attend eventually without a promise that Israel would give back the Golan Heights in exchange for peace during the summit. Peres supported this, believing that an all-encompassing deal was the best choice, but Rabin vetoed the option, believing it was an unnecessary concession and wishing to keep the support of his center-right government partners. Eventually, despite immense pressure from Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei to refuse, Assad reluctantly attended.

Chief Attendees of the Paris Summit of 1998:

Participants:

Israel
President Ezer Weizman
Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin
Foreign Minister Shimon Peres
Defense Minister Ehud Barak

Palestinian National Authority
President Yasser Arafat
Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat
Preventive Security Forces Chief Mohammad Dahlan

United States of America
President Bill Clinton
Vice President Al Gore
Secretary of State Madeline Albright
Secretary of Defense William Cohen
UN Ambassador Bill Richardson

Arab League
King Hussein (Jordan)
Prime Minister Abdelsalam al-Majali (Jordan)
President Hosni Mubarak (Egypt)
President Hafez al-Assad (Syria)
President Émile Lahoud (Lebanon)
Prime Minister Rafic Hariri (Lebanon)
President Saddam Hussein (Iraq)
King Fahd (Saudi Arabia)
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan (United Arab Emirates)
Sheikh Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa (Bahrain)
Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani (Qatar)
Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah (Kuwait)
Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said (Oman)
President Ali Abdullah Saleh (Yemen)
Leader Muammar Gaddafi (Libya)
President Liamine Zéroual (Algeria)
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (Tunisia)
King Hassan II (Morocco)
President Omar al-Bashir (Sudan)

Observers:

European Union
European Commission President Jacques Santer (Luxembourg)
President Jacques Chirac (France)
Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (France)
Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine (France)
Federal Chancellor Helmut Kohl (Germany)
Prime Minister Romano Prodi (Italy)
Prime Minister Tony Blair (United Kingdom)
Prime Minister José María Aznar (Spain)
Prime Minister António Guterres (Portugal)
Prime Minister Wim Kok (Netherlands)
Prime Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene (Belgium)
President Aleksander Kwaśniewski (Poland)
Prime Minister Göran Persson (Sweden)
Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (Denmark)

Other leaders:
Pope John Paul II (Vatican)
President Boris Yeltsin (Russia)
Premier Li Peng (China)
President K. R. Narayanan (India)
Prime Minister Ryūtarō Hashimoto (Japan)
Prime Minister Jean Chrétien (Canada)
Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik (Norway)
President Ernesto Zedillo (Mexico)
President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (Brazil)

Negotiations in the summit took a little less than two weeks, longer than the week that was initially planned. But in the end, a historic agreement was reached. Israel conceded several disputed Jerusalem neighbourhoods while receiving the ability to keep a robust military presence in the Jordan Valley, along with Israeli settlements close to the border there staying under its protection. And on the critical refugee issue, the sides decided that they don't have to agree- the Palestinians reaffirmed their committment to the Palestinian refugees "receiving justice" by being allowed to return to their homes in Israel, and the Israeli government refused to change its immigration laws to let it happen.

The final deal for a Two State Solution was signed not just by Israel and Palestine, but by Arab League representatives including Saudi Arabia, who recognized Israel's existence in a historic step. It was signed in March 12th, 1998.

The only holdouts remained Iraq, which Saddam Hussein led into an antagonistic position, Lebanon, which was led by a Hezbollah-supporting President, and Syria, who didn't receive what they wish in a concession of the Golan Heights.

Still, with Iraq and Iran focused on the threat of each other and Syria fearing any independent action, Israel achieved an amazing new level of external security and peace. Internally, the situation was more complicated- as the agreement started to be enforced, settlements in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank were evacuated, with violence breaking out in some places and many protests across the country. The former settlers were offered temporary homes, while new projects were quickly built to give them temporary housing free of charge. Another project was the construction of a powerful fence all around the new, official borders of Israel. The Rabin Government lost even more members as Yisrael BaAliyah leader Natan Sharansky announced his opposition to the agreement resigned from his Ministry. While Sharansky broke away with Edlestein, Yuri Stern and Michael Noodleman left the government too and founded a party separate from Sharansky's. Rabin managed to save his government by getting the support of enough Yisrael BaAliyah party members- Marina Solodkin, Zvi Weinberg, Hen Yitzhak and Roman Bronfman who all got Ministries in exchange- and getting the votes of four Arab MKs from Mada and Hadash to support his government, a total of 63 in favour. Meanwhile, Arafat was struggling to strengthen his control over Palestine, facing opposition from many radical figures and having to seek covet aid from the IDF.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part III)



With his life's ambition fulfilled, Prime Minister Rabin tried to use the remaining years in his second term to secure it. Throughout the rest of 1998, he had to face a lot of political crises and a large protest wave in front of the Prime Minister's residence in Jerusalem. Security around him had to be so tight that he barelt appeared before the public. And Israeli intelligence remained sure that Arafat was not entirely committed to the agreement. However, Rabin's popularity was helped by a gradual but clear decrease in terrorist attacks, and a constant stream of peace deal signing ceremonies with leaders from across the world. Saudi Arabia, Morocco and the Gulf Countries were the first and most enthusiastic to meet with Prime Minister Rabin in the White House and sign deals recognizing Israel and making peace with it, while other Muslim countries in Africa and Asia, such as Indonesia and Malaysia were recognizing Israel en-masse too. And among many western countries, decisions were made to start the process of moving the main embassies from Tel Aviv to West Jerusalem, while establishing their new embassies in Al Quds (East Jerusalem), the new Palestinian Capital.

As 1998 turned into 1999 and the 2000 election approached, Rabin contemplated whether to run for another, final term. He wanted to further secure his achievement, and ensure that it wouldn't go to waste under Likud leadership. But he was getting old, at 77 years old, and all the drinks and cigarettes didn't do too well for his health. And honestly, he was getting tired of this too- tired of being the center of all the attention and incitement. He was very satisfied with his terms- not only the peace he achieved, but the growing economy, the reforms to healthcare and education, the slowly decreasing income gaps. He wanted to spend his last years resting and enjoying the peace he helped achieve. So he did the what was unthinkable a few years ago and put his trust in his old rival, Shimon Peres. The two bitter enemies reconciled by their successful work on the peace agreement, and now Rabin trusted Peres to lead the country after the 2000 elections and secure what they worked to achieve together. In late 1999, Rabin announced that he wasn't running for another term, and would support whichever candidate Labor members choose.

As the year 2000 arrived, Labor held its leadership contest to choose who they hoped would become the next Prime Minister. The frontrunner, with support from party establishment, was Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, who seemed energetic despite his growing age. However, Defense Minister Ehud Barak surprised observers when he challenged Peres. Eventually, though, a gentle backing from Rabin behind the scenes gave Peres a decisive win.

Labor Leadership election, 2000
Foreign Minister Shimon Peres- 59.2%✓
Defense Minister Ehud Barak- 40.8%

The election season was fairly sleepy- Likud's Moshe Arnes was a fairly low-key campaigner and didn't create major provocations or attacks, though campaigning forcefully against the Paris Accords, while Peres and Labor were fairly confident of victory. The major events happened in the smaller parties- with Shas leader Aryeh Deri facing a conviction for corruption charges, many Shas supporters and sephardi Jews fell victim to a campaign that showed Deri as a victim of Ashkenazi persecution. On the other side, the fractured Yisrael BaAliyah party saw members join several parties- the leftist Roman Bronfman joined Meretz, while Marina Solodkin and other centrist members joined Labor. Natan Sharansky and Yuli Edlestein remained at the lead of the fractured party, while Michael Noodleman and Yuri Stern joined the new Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Likud member Avigdor Lieberman and established as a rival to Yisrael BaAliyah for the post-USSR immigrant votes.

Israeli 2000 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Shimon Peres)- 29 Seats ↓ (-16)
Likud (Moshe Arnes)- 21 Seats ↓ (-5)
Shas (Aryeh Dri)- 17 Seats ↑ (+8)
Meretz (Yossi Sarid)- 13 Seats ↑ (+3)
Shinui (Tommy Lapid)- 8 Seats (new)
Mafdal (Yitzhak Levi)- 7 Seats ↓ (-2)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 seats (new)
United Torah Judaism (Meir Porush)- 5 Seats ↑ (+1)
Hadash-Mada (Mohammad Barakeh)- 3 Seats ↓ (-1)
Ra'am (Abdulmalik Dehamshe)- 3 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Moledet (Rehavam Ze'evi)- 3 Seats ↑ (+1)
Balad (Azmi Bishara)- 3 Seats (new)
Yisrael BaAliyah (Natan Sharansky)- 3 Seats ↓ (-5)

Israeli 2000 Prime Ministreal Election (Results)
Foreign Minister Shimon Peres (Labor Party)- 54.2% ✓
Fmr. Minister Moshe Arnes (Likud)- 40.5%
MK Azmi Bishara (Balad)- 5.3

The election results, when they came, served as a surprise to the two major parties. Without the big personality of Netanyahu or the popularity of Rabin, and more importantly, with the personal Prime Minister election being separate from the Knesset legislative election, Likud and Labor fell sharply in their vote shares. Shas, with their emotional campaign, and Meretz who managed to gain a lot of support from the left-wing voters' peace euphoria, grew in their vote shares, while the election surprise was Yosef (Tommy) Lapid's secular-liberal Shinui party, who captured a lot of support with their centrist views and the focus of many voters that turned from security issues to their frustration with the Orthodox religious establishment.

In the election for Prime Minister, there wasn't much of a surprise as Peres earned a comfortable win. Balad founder Azmi Bishara, a radical Arab politician who said the Paris Accords didn't go far enough and advocated for making Israel a non-national democratic state, became the first Arab to run for Prime Minister, but split the Arab vote with Peres, who was popular among many Arabs who supported the peace agreement.

Following the election, Peres was unable to form the left-liberal coalition with Shinui he originally hoped for. Without other choices, he formed a left-Haredi coalition with Meretz, Shas and UTJ, numbering 64 MKs, with the Hadash-Mada Arab party abstaining in the vote. Meretz did so reluctantly, despite running a campaign against the Haredi parties, to help Peres secure the Paris Accords.

In Likud, leader Moshe Arnes was faced with challenges after losing the election, similar to Netanyahu in 1996. The challengers were former Defense Minister Ariel Sharon (attempting 'one last try'), Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert, former Foreign Minister David Levy and MK Ze'ev Binyamin "Benny" Begin, the former Prime Minister's son. While Arnes, Sharon and Begin ran as hawkish candidates opposing the Paris Accords, Levy and Olmert believed it had to become the status quo.

Likud Leadership election, 2000 (First Round)
Fmr. Minister Ariel Sharon- 26.4% ✓
Mayor Ehud Olmert- 22.8% ✓
MK Benny Begin- 20.8
Fmr. Minister David Levy- 15.3%
Likud Leader Moshe Arnes- 14.7%

Likud Leadership election, 2000 (Second Round)
Fmr. Minister Ariel Sharon- 51.2% ✓
Mayor Ehud Olmert- 48.8%

The election showed a division between the hawkish and dovish parts of Likud for the first time. With the Paris Accords having been ratified for a few years now, a sizable Likud faction declared sympathy for the peace agreement and believed Likud shouldn't work to cancel them and reconquer the West Bank. However, after his victory Sharon became a more conciliatory figure and made peace with the Olmert Camp, holding a press conference where he held hands with the other candidates.

Another major event in the year 2000 was in November, when the United States held a critical Presidential election. The race between Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore was tight throughout the election. The Republicans had the advantage of 8 straight years of Democratic rule, as well as the many personal scandals of President Bill Clinton, causing fatigue, as well as the fact that Bush was seen as far more charismatic than Gore. However, Clinton was popular as President, especially with the Israeli-Palestinian peace deal still looming large in many minds as a phenomenal foreign achievement for the U.S. President, and Al Gore's sizable role in negotiations helped him.

In the end, the results gave Gore a narrow victory, with Congress following the nation and narrowly flipping to create a Democratic trifecta.



Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator John Kerry (D-MA)- 49.3% (296 EVs) ✓
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Fmr. Secretary Richard "Dick" Cheney (R-WY)- 47.6% (242 EVs)
Activist Ralph Nader (G-CT)/Activist Winona LaDuke (G-MN)- 2.2% (0 EVs)
Commentator Pat Buchanan (REF-VA)/Activist Ezola Foster (REF-CA)- 0.4% (0 EVs)
Author Harry Browne (L-TN)/Fmr. Mayor Art Olivier (L-CA)- 0.3% (0 EVs)
Others- 0.2% 49.3% (0 EVs)

In the House of Representatives, Republicans lost 20 seats to Democrats- AR-4, CA-15, CA-27, CA-31, CA-36, CA-38, CA-49, FL-8, FL-22, IL-10, IL-15, IA-2, MT-AL, NJ-7, NY-2, OK-2, PA-10, PA-15, UT-2 and WA-2. Democrats lost just NY-1, PA-4 and WV-2. Meanwhile, Democrats also lost VA-5, where incumbent conservative Democrat Virgil Goode ran and won as an independent. This resulted in a net gain of 16 for Democrats, and a majority of 228-207 for their caucus, giving Dick Gephardt the Speaker's seat over Dennis Hastert.

In the Senate, Democrats won a majority of 52-48 over the GOP, a net gain of 6 by flipping the seats in Delaware (Tom Carper unseating William Roth), Florida (Bill Nelson beating Bill McCollum), Michigan (Debbie Stabenow unseating Spencer Abraham), Minnesota (Mark Dayton unseating Rod Grams), Missouri (the deceased Mel Carnahan unseating John Ashcroft; his wife Jeanne Carnahan appointed in his place), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey Jr. unseating Rick Santorum) and Washington (Maria Cantwell unseating Slade Gorton), and only losing one seat in Nevada (John Ensign defeating Ed Bernstein).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part IV)



Peres' second non-consecutive term as Prime Minister was mixed. Cooperation with the ultra-orthodox UTJ proved fruitless as the party left government following an incident regarding the work of the government electric firm during Shabbat. This left the government as a minority government, kept standing by the Arab parties Hadash-Mada. Additionally, the situation in the West Bank remained fraught with tension as Hamas and other extremist factors continued trying to ignite the area. Most importantly, Israel believed that President Arafat remained stubborn privately, and was trying to find a way to cause a second "Intifada" aimed at forcing Israel to give Palestinian refugees the "right of return". At the last moment, Peres managed to stop opposition leader Ariel Sharon from climbing Temple Mount, and the situation remained stable and delicate throughout the next few years as Israel continued the slow process of surrendering the rulership in the West Bank to Palestine and removing settlements outside of its now-official territory. During the Peres years, substantial terror attacks all but ceased and only some unrest and spontaneous attacks remained, which is considered a huge milestone in Israeli history.

Other than that, Peres' term mostly consisted of a relatively successful handling of worsening economic conditions at the start of the term, and constant squabbling between Shas and Meretz over the Education system and religion-state issues, that peaked in 2003. The year 2001 also saw the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, which prompted a condemnation by both Peres and Arafat, and led to an invasion to Afghanistan. Later, an invasion to Iraq almost started, but President Gore concluded that the risks outweighed the possible gains, and instead doubled down on the Afghanistan War and the hunt for Bin Laden.

Additionally, the Knesset dealt Peres a blow when in the 2000 Presidential election, the Labour coalition's candidate Uzi Baram, former Tourism Minister and current Labour and Welfare Minister, lost in the secret Knesset vote to Likud's candidate, MK and former Minister of Transportation and Welfare.

2000 Israeli Presidential Election
Fmr. Minister Moshe Katsav (Likud)- 61 votes ✓
Minister UZi Baram (Labor)- 55 votes
Abstain- 4 votes

And finally, an electoral reform was passed, cancelling the direct Prime Minister election in favour of the old, Knesset coalition system, with the support of Labor and Likud.

By late 2003, the government was getting "impossible to manage", as Peres called it, due to the inability of Meretz and Shas to work together. Constant threat by both parties to leave the government caused its legislative work to nearly freeze. And so Peres decided to call an early election in early 2004.

Behind the scenes in Likud, former leader Benjamin Netanyahu spent years transforming into a more right-wing version of himself, making connections with settler leaders, urging Sharon to show a harder line towards the Palestinians, and warning that the lack of Israeli military presence in the West Bank and Gaza would cause "a disaster for zionism and the Jewish people". He won the second place to Benny Begin in the list primary, placing him third on the list after Sharon and Begin, much to the annoyance of the members of the dovish faction of the party, led by Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, Shaul Mofaz, Dan Meridor and Roni Milo. Another faction that joined was the "Jewish Leadership Movement" led by the far-right libertarian Moshe Feiglin, aiming to influence the list and get him elected to the Knesset. Nonetheless, Sharon was able to control the party and kept both the Netanyahu camp and the more moderate camp at bay. He also reached an agreement with Natan Sharansky, absorbing Yisrael BaAliyah and ending that party's existence.

One moderate who did leave Likud was MK Roni Milo, the former Mayor of Tel Aviv, who had generally liberal views. He joined former IDF Chief Amnon Lipkin-Shahak in founding the Center Party, and MK Marina Solodkin (formerly from Yisrael BaAliyah and Labor) joined them as well, but they failed to attract others from Likud and other parties. Another one leaving was the right-wing MK Michael Kleiner, who joined with Kahanists Baruch Marzel and Michael Ben Ari to lead the new Herut- National Movement Party.

The election campaign was spirited, with mutual personal attacks between Peres and Sharon, both calling each other dangerous for Israel. Sharon campaigned on making one-sided changes to the agreement and retaking parts of Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley and some other territories claimed by several settler groups ("let's see Arafat challenging us on our historic rights"). On the front of the smaller parties, Shinui's Tommy Lapid ran a scorched-earth campaign against the Haredi parties, and it played on many voters' sentiments.

Israeli 2004 Legislative Election (Results)
Likud (Ariel Sharon)- 31 Seats ↑ (+10)
Labor Party (Shimon Peres)- 24 Seats ↓ (-5)
Shinui (Tommy Lapid)- 16 Seats (+7)
Shas (Eli Yishai)- 9 Seats ↓ (-8)
Meretz (Yossi Sarid)- 7 Seats ↓ (-6)
Mafdal (Effi Eitam)- 6 Seats ↓ (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 seats ↕ (+-0)
United Torah Judaism (Meir Porush)- 5 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Center Party (Amnon Lipkin-Shahak)- 4 Seats
Hadash-Mada-Ta'al (Mohammad Barakeh)- 4 Seats ↑ (+1)
Moledet (Rehavam Ze'evi)- 3 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Balad (Azmi Bishara)- 2 Seats ↓ (-1)
Ra'am (Abdulmalik Dehamshe)- 2 Seats ↓ (-1)
Herut- National Movement (Michael Kleiner)- 2 Seats (new)

Following the election results, there was only one really feasible government- a center-right coalition of Likud, Shinui, Mafdal, Yisrael Beiteinu, Center Party and Moledet (65 Seats). Ariel Sharon quickly went to work on forming that government, and indeed, despite some protests in the Arab world and unpleasant memories of Sabra and Shatila, he managed to form it and become Prime Minister, with Benjamin Netanyahu as Finance Minister, Ehud Olmert as Defense Minister, Tzipi Livni as Foreign Minister, Benny Begin as Infraustracture Minister, Tommy Lapid as Justice Minister and his #2 Avraham Forez as Home Minister, Effi Eitam as Construction Minister, Avigdor Lieberman as Transportation Minister, Amnon Lipkin-Shahak as Internal Security Minister and Rehavam Ze'evi as Tourism Minister.

In Labor, Shimon Peres took responsibility of the loss and resigned as party leader. Defense Minister Ehud Barak claimed he was the natural heir to Rabin and that he could challenge the Sharon government as a strong security figure. Against him ran former Construction and Transportation Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer from the more hawkish part of the party, the dovish Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna and the left-wing Yossi Beilin. Barak, barely, secured victory on the first round.

Labor Leadership election, 2004
Fmr. Minister Ehud Barak- 42.3%✓
Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna- 23.9%
Fmr. Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer- 21.1%
Fmr. Minister Yossi Beilin- 12.7%

But the challenges only started for Sharon. International pressure started immediately, with President Gore and European leaders urging him not to touch the agreement and Arafat promising to "burn down Israel" if Sharon did anything. He had to deal with two wings of his government who disagreed on the most basic of issues, the Israeli-Palestinian peace deal- the moderates led by Olmert, Livni, Shinui and Center Party who believed the Paris Accords should be preserved, and the right-wing led by Netanyahu, Mafdal, Yisrael Beiteinu and Moledet who were ready to hold Sharon to his promises to change the agrement, some of them even supporting outright cancelling it.

In the United States, the 2004 election was held in November 2nd, 2004. President Al Gore was running for reelection, and the wind was behind his back- the economy was still strong, if slowing a bit, and his reaction to the 9/11 terrorist attacks was considered strong, other than the fact that Bin Laden was yet to be caught. The War in Afghanistan was popular too at the moment, and it was hard to attack Gore's foreign policy.

The Republican Party had a contentious primary between former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator and 2000 runner-up John McCain, and the conservative former Speaker Newt Gingrich. In the end, Giuliani won the contest, with Republicans believing the only chance to topple President Gore was "America's Mayor" and his hero-like reputation following his strong moral leadership in NYC after 9/11. However, Giuliani proved to be a poor campaigner, making many gaffes that tarnished his reputation, and couldn't challenge Gore on any major issue. The election was a decisive victory for Democrats, who also gained additional seats in the House. In the Senate, Demcorats picked up Colorado with Ken Salazar, Illinois with Barack Obama and New Hampshire with Jay C. Buckey,  while losing Georgia to Johnny Isakson, Louisiana to David Vitter and South Carolina to Jim DeMint. Betty Castor in Florida, Elaine Marshall in North Carolina and Tom Daschle in South Dakota held tough seats, helping Democrats greatly.

President Al Gore (D-TN)/Vice President John Kerry (D-MA)- 52.8% (360  EVs) ✓
Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)/Senator Bill Frist (R-TN)- 46.3% (178 EVs)
Others- 0.9% (0 EVs)

A regional earthquake came a few days later in November 2004, several months into Sharon's first term, with the sudden death of President Arafat after a short illness. This started a turmoil that threatened to destroy the new quiet- a power struggle in Fatah, Hamas trying to seize the opportunity, and Sharon's right-wing coalition partners urging him to use the chance to elegantly get out of the agreement. Sharon made a decision that angered many in his government- he chose stability. Israel and the United States intervened in Palestinian affairs again, putting all their weight on supporting Palestinian Army Chief Mohammad Dahlan, one of the chief supporters of peace with Israel, in the internal Fatah power struggle with the favourite to inherit Arafat, former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. This gave Dahlan the win, and he quickly used his control of the military and the police to suppress any attempt of oppositiong by supporters of Abbas and other anti-Israeli Palestinian figures. Dahlan announced an election for January 2005, where American, Israeli and Palestinian efforts turned to suppressing support for Hamas and stopping popular Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti from running. The results of the halfway-democratic elections were a huge victory for Dahlan.

2005 Palestinian Legislative Election (Results)
Fatah (Saeb Erakat)- 57.8% (93 Seats)
Hamas (Ismail Haniyeh)- 27.7% (20 Seats)
Others- 14.5% (19 Seats)

2005 Palestinian Presidential Election (Results)
Mohammad Dahlan (Fatah)- 55.1% ✓
Mustafa Barghouti (Independent)- 20.6%
Khaled Mashal (Hamas)- 12.9%
Others- 11.4%

An attempt by Hamas to rebel against the results was quickly suppressed in both the West Bank and Gaza, and Dahlan seized almost complete control over the territory of Palestine. With a cooperative President on the other side, pressure ramped up on Sharon and he eventually signed a new agreement with Dahlan- Paris B, an agreement affirming and making practical many of the Paris Accord's agreements, including the removal of several stubborn settlements, and an agrement about the equality of Israel's Arab citizens. This created an uproar in Israeli politics.

Mafdal leader Effi Eitam resigned from his post and announced that his party was leaving the government. However, the Mafdal party committee surprisingly cancelled his decision. Along with MK and fellow former Mafdal leader Yitzhak Levi, Eitam left Mafdal and formed a new paty- Ahi, or "Renewing National Religious Zionism". Others who left the government were Rehavam Ze'evi's Moledet and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu. Faced with the government's collapse in a crucial moment for the peace process, Ehud Barak's Labor was faced with a harsh dilemma- join the government and lose support from the base, or stay out and possibly lose peace. Barak decided on joining. In protest, Finance Minister Netanyahu and several others from Likud resigned. Olmert got the Finance Ministry, and in exchange for joining the government Barak returned to his post as Defense Minister, along with many major Ministries for his party. The government numbered 72 now- Likud, Labor, Shinui and the Center Party.

Turned from a right-wing hero to a figure supported mostly by the center-left, Sharon signed "Paris B" with President Dahlan and continued leading the government. But his political headaches turned all too literal when in December 2005 he got his first stroke. It was followed by a second stroke in January 2006, which led to a long comma.

Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert became Prime Minister automatically when Sharon became unable to act. This was the start of one of the biggest political dramas in Israeli history.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Al Gore

[Kleine Scheiße]

When will John McAfee [/size be making he appearance

[Dr. MB]

When will John McAfee [/size be making he appearance

John McAfee [/size be making he appearance in hell

JOHN MCAFEE sent to hell for commiting suicide

Satan is making hellfire as a test to find those who still dare to resist him.

MCAFEE sent to hell for suicide

BILLIONAIRE BUSINESSMAN will suffer eternal torment in hell

Satan is trying to recruit billions of young people into his evil army.

Satan is working to create a human war machine to test his new technology.

TEMPLE OF BLOOD

Billions of evil Christians are being killed by the evil God

Satan is preparing the Apocalypse in which he will destroy millions of people in the name of Christ

Satan is teaching every man his mission to kill in the name of Christ.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part V)



Prime Minister Sharon's stroke-induced comma caused a chain of events that changed Israeli politics forever. Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert inherited the office automatically, but under pressure from the Netanyahu wing of the party, he was forced to hold a leadership election.

The race was a clash between two giants of the party- Prime Minister Olmert, representing the moderate wing of the party and promising to form a new government on the same basis as the old one- Likud, Mafdal, Labor, Shinui and Center Party. On the other side was former Finance Minister and former party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, using a relatively new right-wing image and promising to create a right wing government and take the "last chance to get us out of the disaster of the Paris Accords". He made a shocking alliance with Moshe Feiglin's Jewish Leadership Movement, numbering at least 10,000 registered voters, and whipped up a populist fervour against the "establishment" and "Likud princelings"" represented by Olmert, Livni, Meridor and their other allies (even though he was a princeling as well).

The results shocked the country- Netanyahu narrowly defeated Olmert. But by law, he didn't automatically become Prime Minister, and had to form a government first. Labor immediately announced they wouldn't be joining it, but Netanyahu dismissed it, saying he had "very different plans".

Likud Leadership election, 2006
Fmr. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu- 53.3% ✓
Pirme Minister Ehud Olmert- 46.7%

Netanyahu's plans were soon revealed, as he started negotiations with Shas, United Torah Judaism, Mafdal, Ahi, Yisrael Beiteinu, Moledet and Herut, a coalition numbering 61 seats. All parties announced willingness to join that right-wing government, while Shinui and Center Party immediately announced they had no intention of doing so. However, with 61 seats, this government would require the support of the Herut #2- a Kahanist activist named Baruch Marzel, who was arrested and convicted of violence and incitement several times in his life. Netanyahu's intention to create a government with him caused an uproar both at home and among international leaders, but it proved to be Netanyahu's worst mistake in his own party.

Following the announcement, a group of 13 Likud MKs announced that they were refusing to support Netanyahu's government and would leave the party if he refused to resign as leader for "attempting to make an alliance with anti-democratic Kahanist forces who are an affront to all Jews". The MKs were Benny Begin, Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, Dan Meridor, Shaul Mofaz, Limor Livnat, Michael Eitan, Gidon Ezra, Meir Sheetrit, Ruhama Avraham, Majalli Wahabi, Eli Aflalo and Ze'ev Boim. Netanyahu refused, and initially called for them to resign as MKs if they "won't support a right-wing government and betray their party's voters". But when he realized public pressure wasn't mounting on the rebels, he reversed course and called for a return to the "original Sharon government"- Likud, Shinui, Mafdal, Ahi, Yisrael Beiteinu, Center Party, Moledet. It was too late, though- several Shinui and Likud MKs already ruled out a Netanyahu-led government. An election was inevitable.

Quickly enough, the Knesset voted to dissolve itself, with most parties supporting the move. The election would include a massive shift in Israeli politics, centered around the group of Likud rebels, who were now looking for a new political home. Infraustracture Minister Benny Begin and Communication Minister Limor Livnat resigned and created their own party, called "National Responsibility". The other 11, being more than a third of the entire Likud caucus, were allowed to split as their own party and remain MKs. They decided to call their new caucus "Kadima", or "Forward". Olmert and his allies later signed an agreement with Amnon Lipkin-Shahak's Center Party to run together under the name Kadima. This was to be a centrist party, but with so many of the major figures in Israeli politics taking part, it was bound to be a force to be reckoned with. Later it was also joined by MK Michael Noodleman from Yisrael Beiteinu who supported the government's actions and the Paris Accords, and by MKs Dalia Itzik and Haim Ramon from Labor. From outside, they recruited the dovish retired General and former Shin Bet Chief Ami Ayalon.

Under pressure from his allies, Prime Minister Olmert agreed to hold a leadership race in his new party (tens of thousands of Israelis having already registered), believing there was no reason for worry. Running against him were Foreign Minister Livni, Regional Cooperation Minister Shaul Mofaz, Health Minister Meir Sheetrit and Education Minister Dan Meridor. However, things changed radically when several police investigations were revealed to have been opened against Olmert. The corruption charges were quickly revealed and laid out in media investigations, and included physical bribery (the taking of envelopes full of money) and the oddly quick agreement of Olmert as Jerusalem Mayor to the building of a particular neighbourhood despite criticism for its look.

Olmert didn't drop out of the leadership race, but Kadima being a party priding itself in "clean hands", many of its voters didn't like it. Just how much the investigations influenced Olmert's political star was revealed when the results came in.

Kadima Leadership election, 2006 (First Round)
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert- 34.8% ✓
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni- 21.9% ✓
Regional Cooperation Minister Shaul Mofaz- 19.2%
Education Minister Dan Meridor- 14.4%
Health Minister Meir Sheetrit- 9.7%

Olmert fell way short of the 40% he needed to secure victory on the first round. Instead, he had to face off against Tzipi Livni in the first round. However, he seemed like the favourite- Mofaz, who came third narrowly after Livni and had a bad relationship with her, endorsed him, while Meridor and Sheetrit endorsed Livni. As the investigations against Olmert grew deeper, his popularity was harmed, especially with a party that focused many of its messages on anti-corruption rhetoric.

Kadima Leadership election, 2006 (Second Round)
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni- 55.3% ✓
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert- 44.7%

With a surprising gap, Livni unseated Prime Minister Olmert as leader of Kadima and its candidate for Prime Minister in the upcoming elections (she didn't become Prime Minister herself- that continued to be Olmert, on an acting basis). Olmert himself announced that he was leaving politics for now, to let himself fight the corruption accusations himself. Livni congratulated him on a "strong career as a public servant", and continued by declaring that her new party will hold popular primaries for the list next time, but this time it would be chosen by a special committee. Following her victory, Livni managed to sign an agreement for a joint run with a new, rising pensioner's rights movement led by the Gil Party. The party, that was preparing for an independent run and rising in the polls, was considered a critical boost for Kadima on socio-economic issues it was weaker on.

Kadima List for the 17th Knesset (2006):
1. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (Likud)
2. Internal Security Minister Amnon Lipkin-Shahak (Center Party)
3. Regional Cooperation Minister Shaul Mofaz (Likud)
4. Education Minister Dan Meridor (Likud)
5. Fmr. Shin Bet Chief Ami Ayalon (Independent)
6. Health Minister Meir Sheetrit (Likud)
7. Science Minister Roni Milo (Center Party)
8. MK Michael Eitan (Likud)
9. MK Haim Ramon (Labor)
10. Retired Intelligence Officer Rafi Eitan (Gil)
11. MK Gidon Ezra (Likud)
12. MK Uriel Reichman (Shinui)
13. MK Ruhama Avraham (Likud)
14. MK Majalli Wahabi (Likud)
15. MK Dalia Itzik (Labor)
16. MK Marina Solodkin (Center Party)
17. Mr. Ya'akov Ben-Yezri (Gil)
18. MK Eli Aflalo (Likud)
19. MK Ze'ev Boim (Likud)
20. MK Michael Noodleman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
21. Fmr. MK Avraham Hirschson (Likud)
22. Ret. Brigadier General Amira Dotan (Independent)
23. Attorney Roni Bar-On (Likud)
24. MK Nehama Ronen (Center Party)
25. Mr. Yoel Hason (Likud)
26. Mr. Moshe Sharoni (Gil)
27. Educator Ronit Tirosh (Likud)
28. Fmr. MK Nissim Zvili (Labor)
29. Mr. Yohanan Plesner (Independent)
30. Mayor Shai Hermesh (Labor)

The three-way split between Likud, Kadima and National Responsibility wasn't the only rumble in Israeli politics. On the right, Rehavam Ze'evi's Moldet and Effi Eitam's Ahi united to a single party- National Union, led by MK Binyamin Alon from Moledet, following Ze'evi's decision to retire in old age. Michael Kleiner's Herut split from the Kahanists and joined the union. On the center, Lapid's Shinui was collapsing in the polls following many internal conflicts, and Lapid was barely able to keep hold of the party. On the left, Meimad, a religious Jewish Orthodox left-wing party previously cooperating with Labor, decided to run independently, led by Diaspora Minister Michael Melchior, an Orthodox Rabbie and the party's leader. The reason was the need to present a "clear alternative" to the "worrying rise of extremism and Kahanism in the national religious public, which used to be at the center of the political map". The party's ideology was pro-peace, social democratic, moderate on social issues and strongly environmentalist. In Meretz, Yossi Sarid retired from his position as leader and politics, and former Agriculture Minister Haim Oron took the party's leadership.

In Labor, Ehud Barak was facing a stiff challenge to his leadership from several of the party's MKs, who claimed that he was responsible for the party's poor polling due to joining a Likud government. Barak eventually agreed to hold another leadership election before the general election, where he was challenged by former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, the socialist MK and former Sderot Mayor Amir Peretz and Transportation Minister Binyamin Bel Eliezer. Surprisingly, on the first round Barak finished third, and lost the leadership already. In the second round, MK Peretz surprised former Prime Minister Peres and won the leadership of the party. Following this, Peres contemplated leaving Labor and joining Kadima, but decided in the end to stay on as the #2 in the party.

Labor Leadership election, 2006 (First Round)
Fmr. Prime Minister Shimon Peres- 38.3% ✓
MK Amir Peretz- 34.6% ✓
Defense Minister Ehud Barak- 17.9%
Transportation Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer- 9.2%

Labor Leadership election, 2006 (Second Round)
MK Amir Peretz- 52.2% ✓
Fmr. Prime Minister Shimon Peres- 47.8%

The election campaign was the first one that wasn't a head-to-head fight between Labor and Likud. The two parties fought a three-way battle with Kadima, all polling at around the twenty-something seats. Netanyahu was pulling support from Israel's still-large anti-Paris Accords public, and launched blistering personal attacks on his opponents. However, his personal romantic scandals still haunted him and, along with his "alliance with extemists", gave him an irresponsible, chaotic public image. Peretz, while inexperienced and mocked for poor English, got a lot more support than usual Labor candidates in social periphery areas, and his dovish platform excited many of the more left-wing Israelis, making for a formidable base. And Livni had one big advantage- the image of an experienced stateswoman. She wasn't very charismatic, and many accused her of being an elitist Likud princeling, but she pulled a lot from Likud's center-right voters, Shinui's centrist voters, and Labor's voters who were unhappy with Peretz (especially those who supported Peres in the primary). Her rebuke of Prime Minister Olmert also gave her the image of a clean, anti-corruption politician. While her new party had a lot of room to fall, especially after Prime Minister Olmert's scandals, she also had a lot of room to rise, and the truth of it was revealed on election day.

Israeli 2006 Legislative Election (Results)
Kadima (Tzipi Livni)- 25 Seats ↑ (+21)
Labor Party (Amir Peretz)- 20 Seats ↓ (-4)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 16 Seats ↓ (-15)
Shas (Eli Yishai)- 10 Seats ↑ (+1)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 8 Seats ↑ (+3)
National Responsibility (Benny Begin)- 6 Seats (new)
United Torah Judaism (Meir Porush)- 5 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Meretz (Haim Oron)- 5 Seats ↓ (-2)
National Union (Binyamin Alon)- 5 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Hadash-Mada-Ta'al (Mohammad Barakeh)- 5 Seats ↑ (+1)
Shinui (Tommy Lapid)- 4 Seats ↓ (-12)
Mafdal (Zevulun Orlev)- 3 Seats ↓ (-3)
Meimad (Michael Melchior)- 3 Seats (new)
Ra'am (Ibrahim Sarsur)- 3 Seats ↑ (+1)
Balad (Azmi Bishara)- 2 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Jewish National Front (Baruch Marzel)- 0 Seats (new)

Aside from the rise of Kadima and the fall of Likud, the election results had several other visible trends. Meretz, years after the signing and reaffirming of the peace deal with the Palestinians, was losing support election after election, and now fell to a historic low of 5. Its focus on social issues didn't seem to capture as much support as its peace advocacy used to capture, with Labor cutting it on economics and parties such as Shinui and Kadima cutting it on social issues. Shinui itself, with the rise of Kadima, fell sharply and seemed on the verge of collapse as party activists started demanding Lapid's resignation. In a quick leadership election, he lost decisively to MK Yosef Paritzky. However, he was supported by party MKs Avraham Poraz and Victor Brailovsky, and with them he left the party and formed his own independent faction- Hetz (or Zionist Secularism). Paritzky was left as the sole MK in Shinui.

Receiving the mandate to form a government, Livni negotiated for a long while, and got the reputation of a tough negotiator that doesn't give much freely. But eventually, she managed to sign agreements with Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu, National Responsibility, Mafdal, Meimad and the newly-formed Hetz to create a government of 68 MKs. Labor's Amir Peretz would be Defense Minister while his #2 Isaac Herzog became Welfare Minister and his #4 Yuli Tamir became Education Minister; Yisrael Beiteinu's Lieberman became Internal Security Minister; Benny Begin got the Justice Ministry; Mafdal's Zevulun Orlev got the Agriculture Ministry; Meimad's Melchior became Religious Affairs Minister; and Tommy Lapid got the Science and Technology Ministry. In her own party, Livni gave Mofaz the Transportation and Strategic Affairs Ministry (even though he wanted Defense), Lipkin-Shahak became Construction Minister, Meridor became Finance Minister, Ayalon became Foreign Minister, Sheetrit got the Home Ministry, Milo got the Tourism Ministry and Michael Eitan became Speaker of the Knesset. Rafi Eitan from Gil got a new Ministry for Senior's Affairs.

Initially, Livni tried to form a government with the larger Shas instead of Hetz, but their demands for child credits and funding Yeshivahs were too high and she decided to break up the negotiations with them. While there was worry that the government could collapse by the whim of the unexpected Avigdor Lieberman, Livni told allies that she had a 6-seat pad of Meretz and Shinui that she could use if her government's hawkish right, made of Yisrael Beiteinu and Mafdal, bailed on her.

With the two state solution a fact of life, a new political map and a surprising second woman Prime Minister, Israel was going into a new era.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part VI)



Prime Minister Tzipi Livni assumed office right into very challenging circumstances. A few months weeks after the government was formed, two Israeli soldiers were killed by Hezbollah terrorists in an ambush near a mountain in the Israeli-Lebanese border. This started the Second Lebanon War, this time between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Lebanese government giving soft support to the powerful terrorist organization operating from its borders. Livni and Foreign Minister Ayalon worked hard on many world leaders, and achieved across-the-globe condemnations of Hezbollah and statements of support for Israel's right to defend itself. This was made much easier by Israel's new legitimacy following the Paris Accords.

Shockingly, Palestinian President Mohammad Dahlan in his statement calling for both sides to stop the fighting, condemned "Hezbollah's aggression". This angered many politicians and activists in Palestine, and caused the suppression of a new wave of protests, but the international legitimacy it gave Israel was formidable. It also further sharpened the rift between Palestine itself, hoping to use Israel to better its socio-economic situation, and Palestinian refugees abroad who pushed their leaders to fight Israel until the Naqba was compensated via "the right of return". Leftist activists in the west began to push for that, but were an uninfluential minority.

Aggressive airstrikes followed by a quick land invasion quickly sent Hezbollah into a retreat, but the fighting inside Lebanon was hard and slow, especially as hundreds of rockets were flying on Israeli towns. In the end, a ceasefire was signed after a month of fighting. The war was considered mostly a success, but many criticized Livni for not achieving a total defeat of Hezbollah.

Internally, President Moshe Katsav was accused in July 2006 by multiple women who worked in his office through the years of sexual assault and rape. Under pressure from Prime Minister Livni and the public, Katsav resigned from office and was replaced in an Acting basis by Speaker of the Knesset Michael Eitan. In June 2007, a new President was to be elected. The frontrunner was former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, the candidate of Labor and with the endorsement of the coalition and the respect of many in the Knesset and the public. Against him ran MK Reuven Rivlin from Likud, and MK Dalia Itzik from Kadima (who wasn't endorsed by the party). Peres won in the first round.

2007 Israeli Presidential Election
Fmr. Prime Minister Shimon Peres (Labor)- 63 votes ✓
MK Reuven Rivlin (Likud)- 32 votes
MK Dalia Itzik (Kadima)- 19 votes
Abstain- 6 votes

Livni's term continued much more peacefully after that. One major focus was her work to improve trade and economic cooperation between Israel and the Arab world, Asia and Latin America. Together with Egypt and the Gulf Countries, Israel cooperated to develop technology adapted for Middle Eastern climate on agriculture, energy and water. She also worked, along with Saudi Arabia, to mount up international pressure on Iran to stop their nuclear program. This culminated in crushing sanctions announced by President Gore. Under the careful leadership of Minister Meridor, the Israeli economy experienced further success and growth, especially in the high-tech sector. And with the pressure of Peretz and Labor, the social safety net saw further expansion. During the Great Depression that hit the world in 2008, Israel managed to come out relatively unscathed, which was viewed as a huge success for the Livni government.

2008 also saw a major event in world politics- a Presidential election in the United States. The Democratic nominee, Vice President John Kerry, was facing very tough odds after sixteen years of Democratic rule, an increasingly unpopular war in Afghanistan and an economic crash. The Gore Administration was considered mostly successful and popular overall, but many Americans wanted change. This gave the Republican ticket, Arizona Senator John McCain and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, a decisive victory on election day, along with expanded congressional majorities already captured in 2006.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)- 50.7% (306 EVs) ✓
Vice President John Kerry (D-MA)/Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS)- 47.8% (232 EVs)
Others- 1.5% (0 EVs)

Throughout her first term, Livni's coalition remained relatively stable. There weren't many excuses for crises on security issues, as Livni carefully made the Paris Accords the law of the land and improved the relationship with Palestine via funding and trade. There was, however, some grumbling about the lack of progress on social issues, especially from Labor's social liberal plank and from Lapid's Hetz, but it was ultimately not enough to shake up the government. One major headache from Livni came from her own party- many members became unruly throughout the term, coming from different political backgrounds. She also faced several criminal allegations against figures of the party, including former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Deputy Finance Minister Avraham Hirschson and Health Minister Haim Ramon (who was accused both of corruption and sexual assault). Livni decided to react strongly against these cases, especially Ramon whom she fired from his Ministry. Following this, Hirschson decided to resign from his position in the government and the Knesset, but Ramon started voting against the coalition.

As the 2010 election approached and the campaign started, the government parties started fighting for credit in order to benefit from the government's popularity. In Labor, the traditional pre-election leadership race surprisingly didn't include the ousting of the leader- Peretz's chief potential rival, Minister Isaac Herzog, decided not to run following an outside push from the ageing former Prime Minister Rabin, who warned the party "switching leaders like used papertowel" would harm its image. The only rival was former Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who wasn't considered popular enough. It proved correct when Peretz won, though narrowly.

Labor Leadership election, 2010 (First Round)
Defense Minister Amir Peretz- 50.8% ✓
Fmr. Defense Minister Ehud Barak- 49.2%

An attempt by Peretz to reunite with Meimad failed following negotiations. Instead, Meimad united with the ascendant Israeli Green Movement, which had a more pragmatic streak than the so far unsuccessful Israeli Greens. Green Movement leader Eran Ben Yemini got the #2 spot on the Meimad-Green Movement list following Minister Melchior, environmentalist Professor Alon Tal got the #5 spot and activists Iris Han, Yael Cohen Paran and Hussein Terbia got spots further down the list.

In the center of the political map, unions did see success when Begin's National Responsibility Party joined Kadima. Begin got the #2 spot to Livni on the list. Shinui, meanwhile, remained broken- Tommy Lapid retired from politics after polls showed him not passing the threshold, and his friend and #2, former Home Minister Avraham Forez, lead Hetz into the election. Meanwhile, MK Yosef Paritzky, the lone remaining Shinui represntative, continued to lead the party in the election. MK Haim Ramon, expelled from Kadima following sexual assault allegations and a conviction in 2007 (when he was fined and sent to community work), founded his own party to harm Kadima, named "Democratic Choice".

On the right, Netanyahu's leadership faced challenges in Likud following his election failure. However, a polling bump for the party during the Second Lebanon War allowed him to win a leadership election against MK Silvan Shalom and far-right libertarian activist Moshe Feiglin (previously allied with Netanyahu).

Likud Leadership election, 2010 (First Round)
Fmr. Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu- 47.8% ✓
MK Silvan Shalom- 31.3%
Mr. Moshe Feiglin- 20.9%

The religious zionist movements, including Mafdal, the National Union and the Jewish National Front, continued their turmoil. The Paris Accords and the defeat of the settlement movement- both by the legalizing of large settlement blocs and the evacuation of smaller settlements- caused a crisis of identity in that movement. Some religious zionists, led by Mafdal, preferred to remain in government in order to excert influence and enjoy funding for religious establishments and schools, while others, represented by the Ahi-Moledet led National Union Party, wished to create a united front to fight the government and "advance the cause of Greater Israel". However, a non-neglible faction was starting to move left, seeing the success of the Paris Accords, and joined the left-religious Meimad party. Seeing their strength and influence dwindle, Mafdal decided to seek a "renewal for religious zionism" by creating a union with Ahi and Moledet named "Jewish Home". Math professor Daniel Hershkowitz, from Mafdal, was chosen to lead the new part. Following the union, Moledet MK Aryeh Eldad left the union to join a new right-wing party, Hatikvah.

However, when the Jewish Home list was decided, Ahi and Moledet left, believing it gave too many spots to Mafdal representatives. Together with Hatikvah, they re-formed the National Union. Joining them was another far-right party- Our Land of Israel, led by the messianic Rabbie Shalom Dov Wolpo, who previously prayed for the death of Prime Minister Sharon and called for the death penalty for several politicians such as Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Olmert. Wolpo's party was already united with the Kahanist Jewish National Front, and their joint representative, Kahana student Dr. Michael Ben Ari got the #4 spot on the National Union list. The #1 on the list was new Ahi leader Ya'akov Katz, followed by MK Uri Ariel from Ahi and MK Aryeh Eldad from Hatikvah, and Binyamin Alon from Moledet got the #5 spot.

On the front of Arab lists, an interesting split was created. The largest party was a union made of the marxist Hadash, the more moderate, pro-democracy Mada and Ahmad Tibi's Ta'al, which in many ways represented the interests of the Palestinian government. The three parties were slowly moving in a more moderate direction, their willingness to work with zionist parties increasing despite cautiousness. Ra'am, the Islamist party, remained staunchly anti-Israeli, representing in many ways the anti-Israel Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. And Balad, a more secular party led by Azmi Bishara, continued pushing for Israel as a "state of all its citizens" rather than a Jewish state and refused to cooperate with zionist parties. Increasingly, with the Palestinian issue fading, many voices on the Arab public were calling for cooperation in order to improve the poor economic conditions of Arab villages.

Many new faces joined the political field too. Likud got a few new recruits in the form of former Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter, retired General Uzi Dayan, former police commissioner Assaf Hefetz and former Mafdal MK Eliyahu Gabbay.  But the other parties got some "stars" as well- Livni recruited former IDF Chief Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon, considered a center-right figure but refusing to join Likud due to its turn to the right, to her party, as well as former IDF Spokesperson and journalist Nachman Shai, considered a center-left figure. And in new Labor, new recruits included former IDF spokeswoman Miri Regev and journalist Daniel Ben-Simon.

In Kadima, the first popular vote primary for the list enjoyed high participation of tens of thousands of Israelis. Several spots were reserved by Livni- #2, #7 and #12 for Benny Begin, Limor Livnat and Reuven Rivlin from National Responsibility (and other spots further down the list for MKs Moshe Kahlon, Carmel Shama and Alali Adamso), and #5 for Moshe Ya'alon. Other than that, the first spots in the primary were taken by Ami Ayalon (#3), Michael Eitan (#4), Dan Meridor (#6), Ruhama Avraham (#8), Meir Sheetrit (#9), Rafi Eitan (#10) and Marina Solodkin (#11). Shaul Mofaz got a very disappointing 8th place in the primary, placing at the 13th spot.

As the election campaign advanced, it became clearer and clearer that the real race wasn't on who would form a government, but what kind of government Prime Minister Livni would form on her second term. The main opposition came from Likud leader Netanyahu, who fiercely attacked the government, while Labor leader Peretz claimed that his party needed to be formidable enough to challenge right-wing economic policies and protect the weak in society. Yisrael Beiteinu's Lieberman was running a strong campaign appealing to right-wing secular elements of society, saying that he "brought order to the streets and will bring order to the country", and using the slogan "no citizenship without loyalty".

Israeli 2010 Legislative Election (Results)
Kadima (Tzipi Livni)- 41 Seats ↑ (+16)
Labor Party (Amir Peretz)- 15 Seats ↓ (-5)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 12 Seats ↓ (-4)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 10 Seats ↑ (+2)
Shas (Eli Yishai)- 8 Seats ↓ (-2)
Hadash-Mada-Ta'al (Mohammad Barakeh)- 6 Seats ↑ (+1)
United Torah Judaism (Meir Porush)- 6 Seats ↑ (+1)
National Union (Ya'akov Katz)- 5 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Meimad-Green Movement (Michael Melchior)- 5 Seats ↑ (+2)
Balad (Azmi Bishara)- 3 Seats ↑ (+1)
Meretz (Haim Oron)- 3 Seats ↓ (-2)
Jewish Home (Daniel Hershkowitz)- 3 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Ra'am (Ibrahim Sarsur)- 3 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Democratic Choice (Haim Ramon)- 0 Seats (new)
Hetz (Avraham Forez)- 0 Seats (new)
Shinui (Yosef Paritzky)- 0 Seats ↓ (-4)

Following the election, Livni created a government similar to the last one (but without Mafdal)- Kadima, Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu and Meimad-Green Movement. With 10 seats, the government was considered strong and safe enough. Labor got the Finance Ministry for Peretz, Home Ministry for Herzog, Welfare for MK Shelly Yachmovich, Agriculture for Ofir Pines-Paz and Commerce and Industry for Avishay Braverman. Yisrael Beiteinu got the Foreign Ministry for Lieberman, as well as the Immigration and Integration and Internal Security Ministries. And Meimad got the Religious Affairs Ministry for Melchior and Environmental Protection for the Green Movement's Alon Tal. In her own party, Livni gave the Defense Ministry for Amy Ayalon, Justice for Benny Begin, Education for Limor Livnat, Strategic Affairs for Ya'alon, Transportation for Meridor, Health for Ruhama Avraham, Energy for Sheetrit, Diaspora for Rivlin, Communication for Kahlon and Pensioner's Affairs for Rafi Eitan. Michael Eitan remained Speaker. Mofaz refused every Ministry offered to him and decided to retire from politics after Defense went to Ayalon.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part VII)



Livni's second term as Prime Minister was defined by an extremely unstable situation accross the Middle East. The peace agreement with the Palestinians continued to get stronger with smaller agreements for economic and technological cooperation. President Dahlan, with Israeli and American aid, managed to keep his young country stable and slowly developed it. The descendants of Palestinian refugees, meanwhile, were starting to be formally settled in countries like Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, with many arriving in Palestine and a minority still refusing to be settled and demanding to be admitted back to their fathers' homes in Israel. The newest foreign threat was Iran, whose nuclear program raised alarms in Israel. Supreme Leader Khamenei continued his fiery rhetoric against Israel, blaming other Muslim countried for "giving up the fight" and promising to "erase Israel from the map" and give it back to Palestinian refugees. A surprising axis was the newly-created Israeli-Arab alliance, which primarily included Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf Emirates. The Israeli-Arab axis cooperated against Iran on the international stage, including pressure on Europe and the U.S, and signed many technological and economic agreements. Additionally, backdoor cooperation was starting to be created between Israel and Iraq, where Hussein remained stubborn about opposition to the Jewish state but viewed Iran as a bigger threat.

U.S. President John McCain quickly instated strong sanctions against Iran, threatening to take down their nuclear operation "by any means necessary". However, all plans were scrapped in late 2010, when the Arab Spring began. A series of mass protests and armed rebellions in many authoritarian Arab regimes accross the Middle East, the it started with the overthrow of the Tunisian government in January 2010, followed by democratic elections. In many countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Palestine, Lebanon and Algeria, the protests were handled relatively competently, and didn't explode into a revolution, only resulting in some government reforms. However, the major points of explosion were in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Egypt.

In February 2011, mass protests in Egypt resulted in the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the dissolution of the ruling National Democratic Party. This resulted in a 2012 Presidential election, in which diplomat Mohamed ElBaradei won against Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi. President ElBaradei was in the past not friendly to Israel, and criticized Palestinian President Dahlan for his suppression of protests, but in his opening speech declared his commitment to the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Egyptian peace deals. In Iraq, the Hussein government was finally facing mass protests by many forces, including Shia millitias supported by Iran, Kurdish protestors and Islamists. With the country on the brink of collapse, President Saddam Hussein suddenly found his death in an apparent stroke. Taking over was the sly Vice President Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, who managed to stabilize parts of the country. However, Iraq wasn't what it was before, and essentially broke in three- one part ruled from Baghdad by the Ba'athist al-Douri government, one ruled by a Shia regime supported by Iran, and a semi-autonomous Kurdish area.

During the same time, mass protests started in Libya, escalating to a full-scale rebellion against leader Muammar Gaddafi, followed by a UN-mandated, U.S.-led intervention. Eventually Gaddafi, like Assad, was killed by rebels, and a transitional government took over, but instability continued. Yemen had a government overthrow too, with President Ali Abdullah Saleh losing power, but the situation continued to be unstable.

In Syria, the situation deteriorated into a full-fledged Civil War. Casualties were worse than in any other country, with the Assad Regime brutally suppressing protests and causing many civilian casualties. The U.S. government intervened early on to support the pro-democracy rebels with arms and money, and President McCain quickly committed forces to the cause, including a limited ground support and many airstrikes. This culminated with the collapse of the Syrian army and the death of President Assad during an escape attempt in early 2012. Moderate Syrian cleric Moaz al-Khatib was elected interim President of Syria, but parts of the country remained semi-autonomous, including the Kurdish areas, as well as several parts still controlled by pro-Assad forces.

Overall, the instability accross the Arab world didn't have a direct effect on Israel, but it did have an effect of a very emboldened Iran. Without Iraq to balance it properly, Israel allied with Egypt and Saudi Arabia to begin a campaign to pressure the United States to use military intervention and destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. However, President McCain avoided a direct strike due to instability in the rest of the region, and resorted instead to heavy sanctions.

2011 was also the date of internal instability in Israel, when a wave of large protests, mostly in Tel Aviv, was held against the government, with a focus on high housing prices in the country's center and a high cost of living. The protests caused a political crisis, as the Labor Party, sitting in the government, couldn't afford to do nothing about them. The party split between leader Amir Peretz and #2 Isaac Herzog, who preferred to remain in government and enact reforms from within, and Minister Shelly Yachmovich who resigned from her post and wanted the party to leave the government, claiming Prime Minister Livni was refusing to give the proper funding to change the situation. Eventually, Livni appointed Professor Manuel Trajtenberg to head a special committee, and this resulted in an extensive economic reform bill that included massive funding for new housing, decreased tarriffs and a stimulus package for periphery areas. This caused the protests to wane somehow, though protest leader Dafni Leaf continued to lead protests. The protests had the effect of many protestors joining Labor and Kadima to influence them from within, and two major future Israeli politicians started their road there- Stav Shaffir and Itzik Shmuli, who later ran in Labor's list primary with great success.

In early 2012, immense internal pressure forced Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu to hold a leadership election. Two unsuccessful campaigns soured voters on him, and he was challenged by MK Gideon Sa'ar, former Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter, MK Danny Danon and far-right activist Moshe Feiglin.

Benjamin Netanyahu managed to get into the second round against Sa'ar despite coming second, with Danon close behind him. But in the second round he didn't have such luck, and Sa'ar defeated him by a strong margin.

Likud Leadership election, 2012 (First Round)
MK Gideon Sa'ar- 35.1% ✓
Fmr. Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu- 26.3% ✓
MK Danny Danon- 24.7%
Mr. Moshe Feiglin- 13.9%

Likud Leadership election, 2012 (Second Round)
MK Gideon Sa'ar- 56.2% ✓
Fmr. Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu- 43.8%

Thus ended the troubled and tumultous political career of Benjamin Netanyahu. He would later be investigated and jailed for two years for corruption charges, and eventually left to live out his life in the United States.

November 2012 was the date of another American Presidential election. President John McCain was relatively popular, but military interventions in the Arab Spring were increasingly drawing criticisms. The Presidency had a toll on McCain's health, and after a health scare he decided not to run for reelection. The 2012 Republican primaries were between 2008 runner-up Mitt Romney and Vice President Sarah Palin, concluding in the latter's victory. Democrats, meanwhile, nominated Senator Hillary Clinton. The campaign, characterized by an election between two women and many attacks between the sides, ended with a victory for Clinton, as Palin had an incompetent image.

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Governor Barack Obama (D-IL)- 51.4% (325 EVs) ✓
Vice President Sarah Palin (R-AK)/U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)- 46.9% (213 EVs)
Others- 1.7% (0 EVs)

Clinton's administration remained very friendly to Israel, however many on the Israeli right were angered when she sought negotiations with Iran. Controversially, the Livni government didn't outright oppose the attempt, choosing a "wait and see" approach as Secretary of State Joe Biden and European representatives negotiated with Iran. In early 2014, a nuclear deal was reached, aiming to freeze the Iranian nuclear program for many years. Opposition leader Gideon Sa'ar sharply condemned the deal, but Prime Minister Livni surprisingly backed President Clinton, with whom she had a very warm relationship, and said that it would "ensure our safety from Iran's nuclear program for many years, and we'll make sure to continue foiling the Iranian plans".

The next two years were relatively stable for Livni. The situation in Syria and Iraq remained extremely unstable, the countries being de-facto broken up between several factions. Turkey, seeing both the Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish form up formidable factions, became worried, and started an intervention in both countries to suppress the Kurds. However, President Clinton forbade it and increased forces protecting key Kurdish outposts, pretty much neutralizing any Turkish attempt and consolidating the Kurds as an increasingly formidable regional faction. In 2014, a new threat rose in the area- ISIS, or the Islamic State of Syria and the Levant, an insurgent and especially brutal terrorist organization, using social media to spread its brutalities, who took over many areas in Iraq and Syria. The al-Douri government and the Shia areas of Syria took much of the damage in Iraq, and in Syria the remaining pro-Assad forces lost their lands while the al-Khatib government lost some of its lands. The Kurdish forces proved an especially valuable power against ISIS, further strengthening their place in the region. Israel remained mostly above the fray, but its stability relative to the region gave it increasing credibility and stature as an economic actor.

In 2013, another leadership election was held in the Labor Party ahead of the upcoming 2014 election. Finance Minister Amir Peretz was unpopular in the party, and wasn't very popular in the general population either, drawing formidable challenges from former Welfare Minister Shelly Yachimovich, former Haifa Mayor and MK Amram Mitzna and Home Minister Isaac "Bougie" Herzog.

Labor Leadership election, 2013 (First Round)
Fmr. Welfare Minister Shelly Yachimovich-  35.8% ✓
Home Minister Isaac Herzog- 31.1% ✓
Finance Minister Amir Peretz- 28.6%
Fmr. Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna- 4.5%

Labor Leadership election, 2013 (Second Round)
Home Minister Isaac Herzog- 51.0% ✓
Fmr. Welfare Minister Shelly Yachimovich- 49.0%

In the end, Herzog was elected leader, and would now face the formidable challenge of trying to revive his party's chances in the next election.

In 2014, Livni faced the final major event of her second term. President Shimon Peres, who had great respect at home and abroad, was reaching the end of his term, and a successor had to be chosen. Two Kadima members ran, Speaker and former Interim President Michael Eitan and Energy Minister Meir Sheetrit. From Labor, former Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer was the original candidate, but he dropped out following a criminal investigation, and Agriculture Minister Ofir Pines Paz ran instead. From Likud, former Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was making one last attempt to revive his political career by running for President. And independent candidates joined the race too, in the form of retired Justice Dalia Dorner, and 2011 Chemistry Nobel Prize winner Dan Shechtman.

2014 Israeli Presidential Election (First Round)
Speaker Michael Eitan (Kadima)- 35 votes ✓
Agriculture Minister Ofir Pines Paz (Labor)- 26 votes ✓
Energy Minister Meir Sheetrit (Kadima)- 24 votes
Fmr. Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud)- 18 votes
Ret. Justice Dalia Dorner (Independent)- 13 votes
Scientist Dan Shechtman (Independent)- 2 votes
Abstain- 2 votes

2014 Israeli Presidential Election (Second Round)
Speaker Michael Eitan (Kadima)- 81 votes ✓
Agriculture Minister Ofir Pines Paz (Labor)- 34 votes
Abstain- 5 votes

In the end, the second round was a decisive win for Eitan, who won votes from the center-left to the right, and he was selected as the next President of Israel.

But now, Livni had to face her toughest decision since forming Kadima. The 2014 election was fast approaching, and after two full terms with stable coalitions, she had to decide whether to seek a third one. On the one hand, Livni was a great believer in democratic norms and didn't want to go beyond two terms in order to allow the Israeli political system a healthy transition. On the other hand, the internal pressure in Kadima for her to run was immense, and at 55 she was still young to retire. She thought to retire from party leadership and stay in as MK and Minister, but decided against it because the popularity and size of her character would make it impossible for someone new to take center stage. And lastly, she wasn't sure someone new from Kadima would be able to keep the party together.

Eventually, Livni declared that she was running for a third term, her last one.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part IX)



After her decision to run for another term, Tzipi Livni was declared "the Israeli Angela Merkel" by some journalists. The election was considered by many a matter of "how much will Livni win by". However, many Israelis, spearheaded by the leaders of the 2011 protests, wanted a change of leadership and policy towards a government more willing to get involved in the economy. And so the various parties started preparing for a fateful election.

In Kadima, Livni was trying to refresh the party list with new, younger faces less connected to the "old politics" many were complaining about. A reform passed in the party committee to create "open primaries" that everyone who registers to the party one day before could vote in. Several new figures included retired Major General and former Manpower Directorate Commander Elazar Stern, the moderate religious MK Haim Amsalem from Shas and Herzliya Mayor Yael German. Livni's request for several reserved spots was granted- #2 for Benny Begin, #9 for Stern, #13 for German and #19 for Amsalem. The list primary gave the first spots to Ami Ayalon (#3), Moshe Kahlon (#4), Limor Livnat (#5), Dan Meridor (#6), Moshe Ya'alon (#7), Ruhama Avraham (#8), Reuven Rivlin (#10), Nehama Ronen (#11), Carmel Shama Hacohen (#12), Yoel Hason (#14) and Ronit Tirosh (#15).

Kadima List (2014):
1. Prime Minister Tzipi Livni
2. Justice Minister Benny Begin
3. Defense Minister Ami Ayalon
4. Communication Minister Moshe Kahlon
5. Education Minister Limor Livnat
6. Transportation Minister Dan Meridor
7. Regional Cooperation Minister Moshe Ya'alon
8. Health Minister Ruhama Avraham
9. Ret. Major General Elazar Stern
10. Diaspora Minister Reuven Rivlin
11. Deputy Environmental Protection Minister Nehama Ronen
12. MK Carmel Shama Hacohen
13. Herzliya Mayor Yael German
14. MK Yoel Hasson
15. Tourism Minister Ronit Tirosh
16. MK Nachman Shai
17. Social Equality Minister Majalli Wahabi
18. MK Akram Hasson
19. MK Haim Amsalem
20. MK Nino Abesadze
21. Energy Minister Meir Sheetrit
22. MK Dalia Itzik
23. MK Shlomo Molla
24. Fmr. Border Police Chief David Tzur
25. MK Yohanan Plesner

One major question mark in the election was journalist Yair Lapid, son of former Justice Minister and Shinui leader Tommy Lapid. The popular news anchor was considering forming his own party in order to start an independent journey in politics, but Livni running again at the head of the centrist Kadima complicated things for him. In the end, surrounded by new figures such as former Shin Bet Chief Ya'akov Perry, Rabbie and educator Shai Piron, Dimona Mayor Meir Cohen and journalist Ofer Shelah, Lapid announced the forming of his new party- "Yesh Atid". Lapid faced strong criticism and attacks for being inexperienced and leading an ideologically confused party, but his charisma and promise for "new politics" got him a strong base of supporters. A late figure to join him was former IDF Chief and Kadima politician Shaul Mofaz, who attacked Livni and joined her newest rival as his #2.

Yesh Atid List (2014):
1. Journalist Yair Lapid
2. Fmr. Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz
3. Rabbie Shai Piron
4. Dimona Mayor Meir Cohen
5. Professor Aliza Lavie
6. Fmr. Shin Bet Chief Ya'akov Perry
7. Journalist Ofer Shlah
8. Activist Adi Koll
9. Netanya City Councillor Yoel Razvozov
10. Activist Karin Elharar
11. Fmr. Police Deputy Commissioner Mickey Levy
12. Professor Ruth Calderon
13. Journalist Pnina Tamano Shata
14. Activist Shimon Solomon
15. Fmr. Student National Union Chair Boaz Toporovsky

On the right, Likud was desperate for renewal. The party was wounded and low on quality members, so leader Gideon Sa'ar attempted to recruit several outside figures. He ended up recruiting economist Shlomo Maoz and Professor Avi Simchon, who were placed at #11 and #26 on the list. The rest of the list was decided by primary- with the first places being occupied by Gilad Erdan (#2), Silvan Shalom (#3), Danny Danon (#4), Yisrael Katz (#5), Yuli Edlestein (#6), Tzipi Hotovely (#7), Ze'ev Elkin (#8), Yariv Levin (#9), Haim Katz (#10), Gila Gamliel (#12), Tzachi Hanegbi (#13), Moshe Feiglin (#14), Avi Dichter (#15) and Yuval Steinitz (#16). Surprisingly, following the primary negotiations started between Sa'ar and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman for a joint run. They reached an agreement in which Lieberman was placed second on the united list, with an agreement for a rotation in the Prime Minister's spot and many places for his party on the list. The rationale for Lieberman to go for it was a theory that via taking over Likud and the right, he would be able to attain his goal and become Prime Minister.

Likud-Beiteinu List (2014):
1. MK Gideon Sa'ar (Likud)
2. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
3. MK Gilad Erdan (Likud)
4. Businessman Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beiteinu)
5. MK Silvan Shalom (Likud)
6. MK Danny Danon (Likud)
7. Finance Committee Chair Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beiteinu)
8. Fmr. Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz (Likud)
9. MK Yuli Edlestein (Likud)
10. Immigration and Integration Minister Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beiteinu)
11. MK Tzipi Hotovely (Likud)
12. Internal Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovich (Yisrael Beiteinu)
13. MK Ze'ev Elkin (Likud)
14. MK Yariv Levin (Likud)
15. MK Orly Levy Abekasis (Yisrael Beiteinu)
16. MK Haim Katz (Likud)
17. MK Faina Kirschenbaum (Yisrael Beiteinu)
18. Economist Shlomo Maoz (Likud)
19. Fmr. MK Gila Gamliel (Likud)
20. MK Hamad Amar (Yisrael Beiteinu)
21. MK Tzachi Hanegbi (Likud)
22. Activist Moshe Feiglin (Likud)
23. MK Robert Ilatov (Yisrael Beiteinu)
24. Fmr. MK Avi Dichter (Likud)
25. MK Alex Miller (Yisrael Beiteinu)

Another rising force on the right was in the small party named Jewish Home. There, a new movement of young right-wing leaders who believed that the religious zionists needed to mvoe on from the past and promote pro-Jewish policy in the present joined, led by former Netanyahu staffers Naftali Bennet and Ayelet Shaked. Bennet won the party's leadership race, and proceeded to hold negotiations with Ahi-Moledet, the largest part of the National Union party which changed their name to Ahi-National Union. After they reached an agreement for a joint run under Bennet, the radical part of the National Union, led by Aryeh Eldad's Hatikvah and the Kahanist Jewish National Front, broke off and united to create a far-right party named Otzma LeYisrael, led by Eldad.

Jewish Home List (2014):
1. Businessman Naftali Bennet (Jewish Home)
2. MK Uri Ariel (Ahi-National Union)
3. MK Nissan Slomiansky (Jewish Home)
4. Rabbie Eli Ben-Dahan (Ahi-National Union)
5. Activist Ayelet Shaked (Jewish Home)
6. MK Uri Orbach (Jewish Home)
7. Activist Orit Strook (Ahi-National Union)
8. Mateh Binyamin Regional Council Deputy Chairman Moti Yogev (Jewish Home)
9. Be'er Sheba Deputy Mayor Avi Wortzman (Jewish Home)
10. Regional Councillor Zvulun Kalfa (Ahi-National Union)
11. Activist Yonatan Chetboun (Jewish Home)
12. Activist Shuli Mualem-Rafaeli (Jewish Home)
13. Rabbie Hillel Horowitz (Jewish Home)
14. Staffer Jeremy Gimpel (Jewish Home)
15. Activist Nahi Eyal (Ahi-National Union)

In Labor, Isaac Herzog was working hard to try and bring his party back into a dominant position. The first step on the road was an agreement for a joint run with the left-religious Meimad-Green Movement party, giving them places #2 (Meimad), #8 (Green Movement), #15 (Meimad), #21 (Green Movement), #26 (Meimad) and #29 (Meimad). Additionally, place #11 was reserved for Professor Manuel Trajtenberg from the special committee after the 2011 protests. Signaling the weakening of the Labor old guard, many new figures joined the party to run in its primary, including former colonel and prestigious Sayeret Matkal commander Omer Bar Lev, journalists Merav Michaeli and Mickey Rosenthal, businessman Erel Margalit, educator Hili Trooper, former police deputy commissioner Moshe Mizrahi, staffer Michal Biran, Attorney Revital Sweid and activists Stav Shaffir and Itzik Shmuli.

Labor-Meimad List (2014):
1. Finance Minister Isaac Herzog (Labor)
2. Religious Affairs Minister Michael Melchior (Meimad)
3. Welfare Minister Shelly Yachimovich (Labor)
4. Home Minister Amir Peretz (Labor)
5. Journalist Merav Michaeli (Labor)
6. Ret. Colonel Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
7. Activist Stav Shaffir (Labor)
8. Party Co-Chair Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement)
9. Businessman Erel Margalit (Labor)
10. Commerce and Industry Minister Avishay Braverman (Labor)
11. Professor Manuel Trajtenberg (Labor)
12. Attorney Revital Sweid (Labor)
13. Activist Itzik Shmuli (Labor)
14. Staffer Michal Biran (Labor)
15. Secretary General Hilik Bar (Labor)
16. Activist Yaya Fink (Meimad)
17. Journalist Mickey Rosenthal (Labor)
18. MK Nadia Hilou (Labor)
19. Agriculture Minister Eitan Cabel (Labor)
20. MK Miri Regev (Labor)
21. MK Alon Tal (Green Movement)
22. Fmr. Deputy Police Commissioner Moshe Mizrahi (Labor)
23. MK Daniel Ben-Simon (Labor)
24. Fmr. Minister Without Protfolio Raleb Majadele (Labor)
25. Educator Hili Trooper (Labor)

The election was dominated, in many ways, by the influence of polling trends. At the start, Kadima was polling north of 40 seats, with the other parties far behind. After the Likud-Beiteinu and Labor-Meimad unions, their polling numbers rose, with parties like Kadima and Yesh Atid suffering decreases. At first, Likud-Beiteinu looked like the chief rival to Kadima, rising north of 20 seats and safely above Labor-Meimad. But with time, the trend turned- Labor was running a strong, policy-wonk type campaign with a very appealing list, while Likud didn't seem to have any particularly popular policies, and the differences with Yisrael Beiteinu and Lieberman's party having several corruption investigations (including against the man itself) were harming its image. Instead, many right-wing voters were being drawed to the young, exciting Bennet-Shaked duo, despite Sa'ar's accusations that they were masking a "deeply religious, sectarian party". Kadima, meanwhile, had its greatest asset in Livni's leadership, but its list seemed pale and boring. Yesh Atid, throughout the election season, knew rises and falls, but there was an aura of scandal and attention around it, and the list was interesting enough to draw voters, leading to a surge close to election day in the expense of Likud and Kadima. As election day approached, Herzog's Labor-Meimad appeared to become a real threat to Kadima, while Yesh Atid was becoming a threat to a beleaguered Likud.

Israeli 2014 Legislative Election (Results)
Kadima (Tzipi Livni)- 30 Seats ↓ (-11)
Labor Party (Isaac Herzog)- 25 Seats ↑ (+5)
Likud-Beiteinu (Gideon Sa'ar)- 15 Seats ↓ (-7)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 13 Seats (new)
Jewish Home (Naftali Bennett)- 10 Seats ↑ (+2)
Hadash-Mada-Ta'al (Mohammad Barakeh)- 7 Seats ↑ (+1)
Shas (Eli Yishai)- 6 Seats ↓ (-2)
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 6 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Meretz (Zehava Galon)- 4 Seats ↑ (+1)
Balad (Azmi Bishara)- 2 Seats ↓ (-1)
Ra'am (Ibrahim Sarsur)- 2 Seats ↓ (-1)
Otzma LeYisrael (Aryeh Eldad)- 0 Seats (new)
Democratic Choice (Haim Ramon)- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Ale Yarok (Yaron Lerman)- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Eretz Hadasha (Eldad Yaniv)- 0 Seats (new)

The election results gave newcomers Lapid and Bennet very strong starts. While Labor-Meimad got a very good performance and catapulted once again into the position of a possible government party, Likud got a searing defeat, earning just 15 seats and seemingly losing their way forward. With 6 of the caucus members from Lieberman's party, Likud was at an all-time low. Livni came out of the election with mixed feelings- while she was once again the only one who could feasibly form a government (though Herzog tried to form a government with Yesh Atid, Hadash, Meretz and the Haredi parties that was rebuked by Lapid), her party suffered a strong decrease and she'd go into her third (and final, according to herself) government weakened.

There were two choices before the Prime Minister- she could form a wide center-left government with Labor, Yesh Atid and possibly Meretz, or she could form a narrower center-right government with Likud, Yesh Atid and the Jewish Home. The former was her perferance by far, but when Herzog announced, jointly with Galon, his demand to join as a bloc and with rotation for the Prime Minister's spot, she realized that his face was to the opposition, forcing her to form a government that would be easier to attack, with Likud and the Jewish Home. Eventually, Livni signed agreements with the three other parties and formed her third government. Likud's Sa'ar became Foreign Minister, while Lieberman was Home Minister, and the party also got Internal Security (Erdan from Likud), Immigration and Integration (Landver from Yisrael Beiteinu) and Transportation (Yisrael Katz from Likud). Yesh Atid's Lapid got the Finance Ministry, along with the Health, Welfare and Science Ministries. And the Jewish Home got the Economy Ministry for Bennet, Agriculture for Uri Ariel, Tourism for Shaked and Religious Affairs for Ben Dahan.

In her own party, Livni returned Ayalon to the Defense Ministry and Begin to the Justice Ministry for the third time, emphasizing continuity, while giving Education to Meridor, Culture and Sports to Livnat, Construction to Kahlon, Energy to Ya'alon, Communication to Ruhama Avraham, Environmental Protection to nehama Ronen, Social Equality to Yael German, the Foreign and Security Committee chairmanship to Elazar Stern and the Speaker's post to Rivlin.

The government, composed from all through the center-left to the right-wing, proved to be less stable than Livni's last two. Constant sturggles between the Jewish Home and Likud's right-wing and the government's center were harming cooperation, as the right tried to promote reparations for settlers who were removed from their homes and block funding to the Palestinians, and Livni preferred not to rock any ships. Additionally, Lapid was proving to be a mostly unpopular Finance Minister- he promoted budget cuts and didn't support safety net expansions, and housing prices were not going down despite effort from Construction Minister Kahlon. Labor had a comfortable position to attack the government on that front, and were taking every chance to do so. However, the relationship between Livni, Lapid, Sa'ar, Lieberman and Bennet was good, and the media started calling them "the big five", as decisions on critical issues were being made effectively in agreement of all of these figures.

Internationally, the war against ISIS united the west into an intervention made of mostly airstrikes and cooperation with local forces, but for the first time, Israel openly took part in the cooperation between moderate actors in the Middle East. The Israeli Airforce participated in airstrikes, and the IDF sent special missions along with Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt to infiltrate ISIS pockets and harm them. By 2016, ISIS was deep in retreat, with the Kurdish, the al-Khatib Syrian regime and the al-Douri Iraqi regime taking over most of their lands.

2016 was one of the most toxic U.S. Presidential elections to date, as well. With the Clinton administration being very critical of Russia's policies, Putin tried to interfere in the election, supporting her Republican opponent, businessman Donald Trump. The attacks between Trump and President Clinton were ugly and polarizing, especially from the side of Trump who made many inciteful and racists statements. In the end, though it was closer than expected, Clinton managed to win reelection.

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Barack Obama (D-IL)- 50.7% (290 EVs) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)- 46.3% (248 EVs)
Others- 3.0% (0 EVs)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part X)



The second half of Livni's third term was much more politically unstable than the first. The party leaders in her government worked well together, but were facing strong internal pressure. In the Jewish Home, while Bennet was aiming to work alongside Livni and Finance Minister Lapid, the National Union faction of his party was pressuring for a more aggressive policy against Palestine, forcing him to create mini-crises every once in a while.

But the first real block to fall was in Likud. Party leader and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar was relatively popular as a public figure, but internally he was facing immense pressure to hold a leadership election after the dismal election result he achieved. He agreed with the party for a compromise that lets him serve two years in government before testing him in a leadership election, and in late 2016 he was forced to finally hold a primary, despite trying to avoid it for another year. From the right, calling for Likud to leave the government and attacking Sa'ar for "tacking to the left", was MK Danny Danon, a longtime Likud figure who was always on the party's right. Other running were Internal Security Minister Gilad Erdan, Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, former MK Tzachi Hanegbi and former MK Avi Dichter. Activist Moshe Feiglin, despite gaining a formidable base in the party, opted not to run and sought to found a new party for the next election, a Jewish-libertarian movement called "Zehut".

Likud Leadership election, 2017 (First Round)
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar- 29.3% ✓
MK Danny Danon- 27.6% ✓
Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz- 17.8%
Fmr. MK Tzachi Hanegbi- 11.0%
Internal Security Minister Gilad Erdan- 9.2%
Fmr. MK Avi Dichter- 5.1%

Likud Leadership election, 2017 (Second Round)
MK Danny Danon- 53.8% ✓
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar- 46.2%

Danny Danon surprisingly defeated Sa'ar in the second round, the underdog firebreather taking over Israel's former ruling party. Despite Prime Minister Livni offering him various positions and jobs, Danon decided to leave the government immediately, taking with him 9 Likud seats, and demanded that Sa'ar, Katz and Erdan resign from their positions as Ministers. Erdan and Katz complied immediately, while Sa'ar contemplated leaving the party with MKs Elkin and Haim Katz (who entered the Knesset following the resignation of MK Silvan Shalom due to sexual harrassment allegations). As 3 MKs, they constituted a third of the party caucus, which means they could leave and form their own caucus and thus be able to run in the next election without penalties. The government numbering just 68 seats, Livni needed them to keep it intact, as well as Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, which agreed to remain in exchange for advancing a Jewish conversion reform which would help many Russian-speaking Israelis. Not all of Lieberman's MKs stayed, as MK Orly Levy Abekasis decided to leave Yisrael Beiteinu and the coalition, claiming that the agreement "left behind the disadvantaged".

In the end, Sa'ar stayed on as Foreign Minister, while Elkin was appointed Internal Security Minister and Minister for Jerusalem Affairs and Katz was appointed chair of the Knesset Finance Committee instead of the Jewish Home's Nissan Slomiansky (who got the Transportation Ministry in exchange).

But this wasn't the end to Livni's trouble- with the government numbering just 62 seats, every MK had a lot more power and crisis after crisis followed. Not to be outflanked by Danon from the right, the National Union was pressuring Bennet to leave the government, and contemplated leaving by themselves (numbering 4, they would've taken it down), but were convinced to stay by additional reparations for former settlers. Suddenly, 2017 was the year Liberman sounded the trumpets on many social issues, demanding the government defund Yeshivah students who don't serve in the IDF and demanded a law forcing most of them to serve. This created outrage in the Haredi parties, and the Jewish Home refused to support it too. Lieberman threatened leaving the government on a daily basis after that.

Not to be outdone, Labor submitted another law for civil (including same sex) marriage in Israel, following similar laws presented every year since the U.S. Supreme Court allowed them in 2013. Until then, Livni said she supported the law but had to vote it down to "keep the government together". But now, sensing weakness, Kadima members Elazar Stern, Carmel Shama Hacohen, Yael German and Nachman Shai announced they would vote for the proposal. Following this, Yair Lapid announced his party would support the law, which was proposed by MK Stav Shaffir from Labor and MK Zehava Galon from Meretz. With 25 secure votes from Labor, 4 from Meretz, 13 from Yesh Atid, 3 from Hadash-Mada-Ta'al and 4 from Kadima, the proposal needed just 12 votes to reach a majority. With the constant crises making her government an increasingly impossible headache, Livni decided to go out with a bang and announced that she would vote for the law and allow free voting in her party. This was immediately followed by 12 other Kadima members announcing their support, while the rest (13 MKs) abastained. The proposal passed with 62 votes in favour, 37 against and 21 abstaining (7 from Kadima, 2 from Hadash-Mada-Ta'al, 3 from Likud, 3 from Yisrael Beiteinu). Israel joined the club of countries where same-sex marriage was legal, and Livni's legacy would forever include this historic fact.

It would also spell the doom for the third Livni Government, as the Jewish Home immediately left. And election was called for mid-2017, a year and a half before the regularly scheduled time. Prime Minister Tzipi Livni announced that she would not run for a fourth term, saying that "no leader should strive to rule for over a decade, and I had over 11 years in office". This started a power struggle in Kadima. Running for leader were long-time Defense Minister Ami Ayalon and Justice Minister Benny Begin, the former from the center-left and the latter from the center-right, considered the frontrunners. They were also challenged by Construction Minister Moshe Kahlon, Energy Minister Moshe Ya'alon, MK Nachman Shai and MK Majalli Wahabi.

The race was considered fairly sleepy, with none of the candidates having remarkable charisma. Surprisingly, Begin advanced into the second round against Kahlon rather than Ayalon, whose lack of charisma and sleepy campaigning took away all but his core supporters (who were still a sizable center-left faction of the party). In the second round, despite a tough competition against the more charismatic, populist Minister, Begin managed to eke out a win and lead the party in the coming election.

Kadima Leadership election, 2017 (First Round)
Justice Minister Benny Begin- 33.2% ✓
Consturction Minister Moshe Kahlon- 24.8% ✓
Defense Minister Ami Ayalon- 23.9%
MK Nachman Shai- 8.4%
Energy Minister Moshe Ya'alon- 6.7%
MK Majalli Wahabi- 3.0%

Kadima Leadership election, 2017 (Second Round)
Justice Minister Benny Begin- 50.4% ✓
Consturction Minister Moshe Kahlon- 49.6%

Under Begin, the party tacked to a more traditional center-right direction over Livni's center-left leadership. It absorbed the trio of Sa'ar, Elkin and Haim Katz who left Likud and formed a faction they named "Derekh Eretz" (roguhly translated as "courtesy"), as well as former Likud MKs Tzachi Hanegbi, Gila Gamliel and Avi Dichter, who were given spots on the list reserved by Begin. The large number of reserved spots (especially for Likud figures) led to a few defections- Defense Minister Ayalon retired from politics, Social Equality Minister Yael German and MK Elazar Stern joined Yesh Atid, and MK Nachman Shai joined Labor. This led MK Yoel Hasson to be the chief Livnist on Kadima's list. In the list primary consensus candidate Dan Meridor came first, followed by Hasson, Kahlon, Rivlin, Shama Hacohen, Limor Livnat, Ya'alon and Ruhama Avraham. The party list was criticized for a lack of women in the top 10, despite former Electricity Authority Orit Farkash-Hacohen, journalist Ksenia Svetlova, former Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Rachel Azaria and Tel Aviv City Councillor Merav Ben Ari achieving high spots on the list reserved for women.

Kadima List (2017):
1. Justice Minister Benny Begin
2. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar (Derekh Eretz)
3. Education Minister Dan Meridor
4. MK Yoel Hasson
5. Construction Minister Moshe Kahlon
6. Internal Security Minister Ze'ev Elkin (Derekh Eretz)
7. Speaker Reuven Rivlin
8. MK Carmel Shama Hacohen
9. Culture and Sports Minister Limor Livnat
10. Energy Minister Moshe Ya'alon
11. Communication Minister Ruhama Avraham
12. MK Akram Hasson
13. Tel Aviv City Councillor Merav Ben Ari
14. MK Haim Katz (Derekh Eretz)
15. Journalist Ksenia Svetlova
16. MK Nino Abesadze
17. Fmr. Deputy Jerusalem Mayor Rachel Azaria
18. Fmr. MK Tazachi Hanegbi (Derekh Eretz)
19. Fmr. MK Avi Dichter (Derekh Eretz)
20. Fmr. Electricity Authority Chairwoman Orit Farkash-Hacohen
21. MK Majalli Wahabi
22. MK Shlomo Molla
23. Fmr. MK Gila Gamliel (Derekh Eretz)
24. MK Yohanan Plesner
25. Author Einat Wilf

In Labor, Opposition Chairman Isaac Herzog was facing a challenge from MKs Shelly Yachimovich and Erel Margalit, but the party's robust polling numbers allowed him to escape from a second round and win strongly.

Labor Leadership election, 2017 (First Round)
Opposition leader Isaac Herzog- 49.7% ✓
MK Shelly Yachimovich- 34.6%
MK Erel Margalit- 15.7%

The party list primary produced a young and increasingly left-wing slate: Stav Shaffir came first, followed by Itzik Shmuli, Merav Michaeli, Shelly Yachimovich, Omer Bar Lev, Revital Swid, Erel Margalit, Amir Peretz (whose place was very disappointing for him), Avishai Braverman and Michal Biran. Herzog signed an agreement with Meimad chairman Michael Melchior to finally merge the parties, giving Melchior a final reserved spot along with his party's other MKs. However, the Green Movement left the union, deciding to run independently. Leading them was none other than the popular MK Stav Shaffir, who apologized to Labor voters who wanted her there but believed that "like in other parts of the world, a Green Party is needed in Israel to advance the interests of the environment and protect it". Shaffir changed the party's name to the Green Party, and was joined by Green MKs Yael Cohen Paran and Alon Tal, and Meimad MK Yaya Fink.

Labor List (2017):
1. Opposition leader Isaac Herzog
2. MK Michael Melchior (Meimad)
3. MK Itzik Shmuli
4. MK Merav Michaeli
5. Fmr. Minister Shelly Yachimovich
6. MK Omer Bar Lev
7. MK Revital Sweid
8. MK Erel Margalit
9. Fmr. Minister Amir Peretz
10. Fmr. Minister Avishay Braverman
11. MK Michal Biran
12. MK Manuel Trajtenberg
13. MK Miri Regev
14. MK Mickey Rosenthal
15. Journalist Zouheir Bahloul
16. Author Emily Moati
17. MK Nachman Shai
18. General Secretary Eran Hermoni
19. MK Moshe Mizrahi
20. MK Daniel Ben-Simon
21. Fmr. Yokneam Illit Mayor Leah Fadida
22. Fmr. Jezreel Valley Regional Council Chairman Eitan Broshi
23. Attorney Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin
24. Journalist Henrique Zimmerman
25. MK Hili Trooper

In the Green Party, Shaffir managed to recruit several experienced and well-known candidates to add to the slate of MKs Cohen Paran, Fink and Tal, including Reform Rabbie Gilad Kariv, former Green Movement MK Eran Ben Yemini, first Bedouin Town Councillor Zinab Abu-Sweid, feminist activist Nitzan Kahana, LGBTQ activist Avi Buskila and Attorney Iris Han, CEO of the Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel. Shaffir hoped that these figures, along with her own popularity, would be enough of a jumpstart for the Green Party to become a formidable force in Israeli politics.

Green Party List (2017):
1. MK Stav Shaffir
2. MK Yael Cohen Paran
3. MK Yair "Yaya" Fink
4. Rabbie Gilad Kariv
5. MK Alon Tal
6. Town Councillor Zinab Abu-Sweid
7. Activist Avi Buskila
8. Fmr. MK Eran Ben Yemini
9. Activist Nitzan Kahana
10. Attorney Iris Han

Yesh Atid, meanwhile, was facing tough circumstances. As Finance Minister, Yair Lapid wasn't very popular, and made mistakes both on PR and policy. The cuts to the safety net he offered, and the lack of progress on solving the cost of living crisis, as well as many gaffes, gave him an incompetent image. He also had a less-than-good relationship with several of his party members, who he proceeded to boot from the list, including Shai Piron and Adi Koll. However, Lapid was determined that his party won't disappear like Shinui before it. He hoped that newly-joined candidates Minister Yael German and MK Elazar Stern from Kadima, as well as LGBTQ rights activist Idan Roll, would help the party.

Yesh Atid List (2017):
1. Finance Minister Yair Lapid
2. Health Minister Shaul Mofaz
3. Social Equality Minister Yael German
4. Welfare Minister Meir Cohen
5. MK Karin Elharar
6. MK Ofer Shlah
7. Science and Technology Minister Ya'akov Perry
8. MK Pnina Tamano Shata
9. MK Elazar Stern
10. MK Aliza Lavie
11. MK Yoel Razvozov
12. MK Mickey Levy
13. MK Ruth Calderon
14. Fmr. Student National Union Chair Boaz Toporovsky
15. Activist Idan Roll

Taking a more right-wing turn under Danny Danon, Likud was desparately searching for a niche. Many of its voters were in Yesh Atid and Kadima from the center or Jewish Home from the right, and Danon needed a change to continue. However, an attempt to negotiate a union agreement with the Jewish Home or bring MK Ayelet Shaked into the fold failed, and Likud didn't manage to recruit any surprising stars. In the list primary, the dominant candidates were unsurprisingly MKs Yuli Edlestein, Gilad Erdan, Yisrael Katz, Tzipi Hotovely and Yariv Levin, but they were followed by right wing figures such as Likud staffer Ofir Akunis, former Deputy Rishon Lezion Mayor David Bitan, former Deputy Kiryat Gat Mayor Mickey Zohar, Temple Mount activist Yehudah Glick, right-wing activist Oren Hazan, Professor Anat Berko, former MK Ayoob Kara and Likud LGBT activist Amir Ohana. The list was criticized for a lack of women, which was caused especially by Likud cancelling the reserved spots for women, calling it an "unnecessary liberal brainwashing" as part of its new socially conservative campaign angle.

Likud List (2017):
1. MK Danny Danon
2. MK Yuli Edlestein
3. Fmr. Internal Security Minister Gilad Erdan
4. Fmr. Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz
5. MK Tzipi Hotovely
6. Fmr. MK Michael Ratzon
7. Staffer Ofir Akunis
8. Professor Anat Berko
9. Fmr. Deputy Rishon Lezion Mayor David Bitan
10. MK Yariv Levin
11. Fmr. MK Ayoob Kara
12. Activist Yehuda Glick
13. Activist Oren Hazan
14. Fmr. Deputy Kiryat Gat Mayor Mickey Zohar
15. Activist Amir Ohana

In the Jewish Home, Bennet had to face a complicated situation due to this past commitment to the Livni government. He managed to avoid a leadership challenge and prevent Uri Ariel's Ahi-National Union party from splitting by forcefully rebuking Livni's decision to support the civil marriage law, calling it a "betrayal of agreements" and even calling the Prime Minister "a liar". He promised his partners not to enter a government under Kadima, and declared that his goal was to become the "largest right-wing party in Israel, made of secular and religious Israelis who believed in Jewish state" and lead a "national government" with Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, the Haredim and the newer, small right-wing parties that were being founded.

Jewish Home List (2017):
1. Economy Minister Naftali Bennet (Jewish Home)
2. Agriculture Minister Uri Ariel (Ahi-National Union)
3. Tourism Minister Ayelet Shaked (Jewish Home)
4. Religious Affairs Minister Eli Ben-Dahan (Jewish Home)
5. Attorney Bezalel Smotrich (Ahi-National Union)
6. Transportation Minister Nissan Slomiansky (Jewish Home)
7. Journalist Yinon Magal (Jewish Home)
8. MK Moti Yogev (Jewish Home)
9. Activist Shuli Mualem-Rafaeli (Jewish Home)
10. MK Orit Strook (Ahi-National Union)
11. Fmr. IDF Chief Rabbie Avichai Rontzki (Jewish Home)
12. MK Avi Wortzman (Jewish Home)
13. Attorney Nir Orbach (Jewish Home)
14. Party Chairman Nahi Eyal (Ahi-National Union)
15. Activist Ronen Shoval (Jewish Home)

The 2017 election also included the founding of many smaller parties with more niche ideologies to combat the larger ones. The most major one was the Green Party led by MK Shaffir and splitting from Labor. Zehut, a far-right libertarian movement was led by activist Moshe Feiglin from Likud and its list was made of an open, online primary. Throughout the election, the party's call for legal marijuana and its successful promotion of a libertarian platform many in Israel were unfamiliar with, allowed it to surge in the polls and become a real force to be reckoned with, to the chagrin of Israel's traditionally economically center-left establishment.

Gesher, founded by the populist MK Orly Levy Abekasis who left Yisrael Beiteinu and bearing the name of a short-lived party led by her father, former Foreign Minister David Levy, was also a force to be recokned with at first, polling at as much as 6 seats, but eventually the party fell in the polls again and was on the edge of the 2-seat threshold.

Yachad, a right-religious party founded by Eli Yishai, the former leader of Shas who was ousted by Aryeh Deri, the popular former party leader who came back after serving time in prison for corruption charges. Yishai aimed to make the party a union between conservative, nationalist and religious forces, and was joined by Jewish Home MK Yoni Chetboun and National Union MK Zevulun Kalfa. After negotiations for a union with Ahi-National Union failed and the party's committee decided to stay with the Jewish Home, Yishai signed an agreement with the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit (the name changed from Otzma LeYisrael), which failed to pass the threshold in 2014. The resulting far-right party had enough of a base, made of the Haredim loyal to Yishai, the national religious who came after Kalfa and Chetboun, and the small but powerful core Kahanist base.

On the front of the Arab parties, a long-time freeze was finally moved when Hadash elected Ayman Odeh, a young reformist, to its leadership. Odeh strived to continue the union with the other two moderate Arab parties, Mada, led by Mohammad Darawshe and considered the party most eager to cooperate with Jewish parties, and Ta'al, led by Ahmad Tibi and considered close to Fatah. They agreed to start a process merging the three parties, at first by calling themselves the "Democratic Arab List". Negotiations with Balad and Ra'am to join the list failed after the other two demanded a harder line against Zionism and social liberalism, and in response Balad leader Azmi Bishara and Ra'am leader Masud Ghnaim joined together to found a rival union, the "Arab List for Peace and Equality".

The election season itself was hard-fought and filled with dramatic shifts. The main dynamic was the struggle of Benny Begin's Kadima to keep its central place against a steadily rising Labor, a fight between Likud and Jewish Home for the title of largest right-wing party, and the rise and fall of the smaller parties, which in the end resulted in an overall rise for the Green Party and Zehut and falls for Yachad and Gesher. Among the older small parties, Meretz continued to struggle to find a place- despite the popularity of the party among the left, many opted to support Labor instead to maximize the chances for a left-wing government, and with the Palestinian issue behind the country, it seemed harder and harder to distinguish the two. And in Yisrael Beiteinu, corruption scandals roiled the party and gave it a scare as several polls showed it polling dangerously close to the threshold. However, the party still had a steady base of older post-USSR immigrants.

Israeli 2017 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Isaac Herzog)- 23 Seats ↓ (-2)
Kadima (Benny Begin)- 20 Seats ↓ (-10)
Jewish Home (Naftali Bennett)- 12 Seats ↑ (+2)
Likud (Danny Danon)- 10 ↑ (+1)
Democratic Arab List (Ayman Odeh)- 9 Seats ↑ (+2)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 9 Seats ↓ (-4)
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats ↑ (+1)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 6 Seats (new)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 5 Seats ↓ (-1)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Masud Ghnaim)- 5 Seats ↑ (+1)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 4 Seats ↓ (-2)
Zehut (Moshe Feiglin)- 3 Seats (new)
Meretz (Zehava Galon)- 3 Seats ↓ (-1)
Yachad- the People are With Us (Eli Yishai)- 2 Seats (new)
Gesher (Orly Levy Abekasis)- 2 Seats (new)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part XI)



The results of the 2017 Israeli created a complicated situation for the major parties, Kadima and Labor. On the one hand, Labor leader Isaac Herzog was considered the election's winner, becoming the leader of the largest party despite slightly declining since the last election. On the other hand, neither he nor Kadima leader Benny Begin were capable of forming a government (Begin was briefly adviced to form a right-wing government with Jewish Home, Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, Gesher and Zehut or Yachad, but quickly discarded the option). A national unity government was the only option.

Among the smaller parties, Likud's result was another disappointment as the Jewish Home eclipsed them as the largest right-wing party. Yesh Atid's Lapid managed to keep it strong enough to remain viable. Odeh's Democratic Arab List experiment paid off, as the party increased its strength to become a very formidable force. Feiglin got a disappointing result of just 3 seats to Zehut, after polls immediately before the election showed his party at 7-9 seats. And the election surprise was Shaffir's Green Party, which managed to ensure its footpring in Israeli politics with 6 seats, gathering its voters from Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz and a section of young non-voters who were connected to global environmental trends and wished to see them represented in Israel too. The party's "Green New Deal" reform and focus on "real life issues" like transportation, air pollution, traffic jams and the cost of living, as well as its emphasis on social equality as part of its green platform and Shaffir's personal charisma and popularity, earned it many new voters.

The national union government was inevitable, but also tough to accomplish. Together, Labor and Kadima had just 43 seats, and they required Yesh Atid, the Green Party and other parties such as Yisrael Beiteinu, Gesher or Meretz to form a majority. At the start of the negotiations, Labor formed a bloc with Meretz, saying they won't enter the government separately and would negotiate together. This caused Lieberman's party to finally stay in opposition after years in government that seemed to just hurt its poll numbers. To the bare majority of 61 formed of Labor-Meretz, Kadima, Yesh Atid and the Greens, Gesher was added to make a more comfortable 63-seat government. Begin vetoed a suggestion by Herzog to add the Democratic Arab Party to government without giving it Ministries as a way to make it more robust.

The hardest decision was, then, who would become Prime Minister. Herzog had the greater claim, as he led the bigger party, but Begin argued that his party was the former party of government and that he needed the Prime Minister's post to justify sitting with Meretz. In the end, a rotation mechanism was agreed upon, with Begin serving or the first 1.5 years and Herzog serving for the remaining 2.5 years. The compromise allowed the government to finally be formed.

Labor got the Foreign Ministry for Herzog (which would later be given to Likud's Begin after the rotation), Defense for Omer Bar Lev, Religious Affairs for Michael Melchior, the Economy Ministry for Shmuli, Communication for Michaeli, Welfare for Yachimovich, Science and Technology for Erel Margalit, Periphery Development for Miri Regev, the Knesset Speaker's post for MK Revital Swid and the Finance Committee Chairmanship for Avishai Braverman. Kadima had Prime Minister for Benny Begin, Home Ministry for Sa'ar, Finance for Dan Meridor, Immigration and Integration for Hasson, Culture and Sports for Livnat, Agriculture for Kahlon, Energy for Elkin, Diaspora and Jerusalem Affairs for Rivlin, and the Foreign and Security Affairs Committee chairmanship for Ya'alon.

Among the smaller parties, Yesh Atid got the Justice Ministry for Lapid, Internal Security for Mofaz, Construction for Yael German and Tourism for Meir Cohen. The Green Party got Transportation, a very environment-focused post, for Shaffir and Environmental Protection for Cohen-Paran. Meretz got Education for Galon and Social Equality for MK Ilan Gilon. And Gesher got the Health Ministry for Levy-Abekasis.

Israel's 36th Government
Coalition: Labor (23), Kadima (20), Yesh Atid (9), Green Party (6), Meretz (3), Gesher (2)
Total: 63 Seats

Prime Minister: Benny Begin (Kadima) 1.5 years, Isaac Herzog (Labor) 2.5 years
Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Isaac Herzog (Labor) 1.5 years, Benny Begin (Kadima) 2.5 years
Defense Minister: Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Finance Minister: Dan Meridor (Kadima)
Justice Minister: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)
Home Minister: Gideon Sa'ar (Kadima)
Education Minister: Zehava Galon (Meretz)
Internal Security Minister: Shaul Mofaz (Yesh Atid)
Transportation Minister: Stav Shaffir (Green)
Health Minister: Orly Levy-Abekasis (Gesher)
Economy and Industry Minister: Itzik Shmuli (Labor)
Construction and Housing Minister: Yael German (Yesh Atid)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Shelly Yachimovich (Labor)
Communication and Media Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Energy and Water Minister: Ze'ev Elkin (Kadima)
Environmental Protection Minister: Yael Cohen Paran (Green)
Agriculture Minister: Moshe Kahlon (Kadima)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Yoel Hasson (Kadima)
Culture and Sports Minister: Limor Livnat (Kadima)
Tourism Minister: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Science and Technology Minister: Erel Margalit (Labor)
Social Equality Minister: Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
Diaspora and Jerusalem Affairs Minister: Reuven Rivlin (Kadima)
Periphery Development Minister: Miri Regev (Labor)
Religious Affairs Minister: Michael Melchior (Labor)

Speaker of the Knesset: Revital Swid (Labor)
Coalition Chair: Michal Biran (Labor)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Moshe Ya'alon (Kadima)
Finance Committee Chair: Avishai Braverman (Labor)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Yair "Yaya" Fink (Green)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Ruhama Avraham (Kadima)
Immigration, Integration and Diaspora Committee Chair: Pnina Tamano Shata (Yesh Atid)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Manuel Trajtenberg (Labor)
Economy Committee Chair: Ayelet Shaked (Jewish Home)

The new government had some achievements under its belt. Under Prime Minister Begin, a package of laws forcing Haredi education institutes to teach Hebrew, English, math and science passed, as did a green reform spearheaded by Shaffir aimed at sharply reducing cars on the roads, incentivizing and funding public transportation and taxing harmful pollution. Later, when Herzog came into office in early 2019, a law investing heavily into the periphery areas of Israel, including health, education and transportation services, was signed. The government remained relatively stable in its early years, but in 2020, a new global crisis in the form of the covid-19 pandemic forced the government into staying together.

Israel became the one of the first countries to enact a lockdown, leading cases to sharply fall. Even after this, the government only cautiously removed restrictions, leading to protests, but this seemed to stall a "second wave" that did hit Israel, but at a low volume. In 2021, Israel managed to sign an agreement providing it with plenty of pfitzer and moderna vaccines in exchange for medical stats, and became one of the leading countries in vaccinations. This made Prime Minister Herzog, who was viewed as the chief steward of the response (as opposed to Health Minister Levy-Abekasis, who made several gaffes on the subject). Leading the opposition to restrictions were Avigdor Lieberman and some parts of Likud, while Jewish Home leader Bennet managed to come out of the pandemic strengthened too, as he criticized many government decisions and released many detailed policies (even authoring a book named "how to beat a pandemic").

2020 was also the date of yet another Presidential election in the United States. President Hillary Clinton was term-limited, but her heir, Vice President Barack Obama, was facing tough odds- the traditional fatigue after 8 years of the same party. Hoping to do the same as President Gore, who managed to create 16 years of Democratic Party rule, Obama and his running made, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, were now facing a formidable Republican nominee- Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler, elected in the 2014 Republican wave and running on a more socially moderate, business Republican platform that aimed to leave Trumpism behind. Her running mate reflected it- Maryland Governor Michael Steele.

In the end, a very hard-fought race was ended with a narrow victory for Loeffler, who became the second woman President of the United States. The very narrow victory and the Obama win in the popular vote made the election especially controversial, but eventually President Loeffler was inaugurated in January 2021.

Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA)/Governor Michael Steele (R-MD)- 48.1% (272 EVs) ✓
Vice President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)- 49.7% (266 EVs)
Others- 2.2% (0 EVs)

Later that year, an election was approaching in Israel too.

[Kleine Scheiße]

RIP america  americ

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part XII)



As the 2021 Israeli election approached, Prime Minister Herzog enjoyed high approval ratings due to his handling of the covid-19 crisis. Labor, feeling emboldened and once again in leadership, didn't present any challenge to his leadership.

The party list primary saw the retirement of several veteran Labor politicians including Amir Peretz, Shelly Yachimovich, Avishai Braverman and Manuel Trajtenberg. Showcasing his strength in the party, Itzik Shmuli won the first place, followed by Merav Michaeli, Omer Bar Lev and Revital Swid. Severl newer faces also got high spots, including former Yeruham Mayor Michael Biton, script-writer and pro-LGBTQ Arab activist Ibtisam Mara'ana, National Student Union Chair Ram Shefa and Druze journalist Gadeer Mreeh. Another major decision by Herzog was to sign a union agreement with Meretz. The left-wing party was finding itself unable to keep its base, focused on peace issues which now seemed moot, and Zehava Galon led the party to a decision to merge with Labor and functionally disband. Not all party members agreed with it- former MK Mossi Raz joined the Democratic Arab List, MK Nitzan Horovits and former MK Michal Rozin joined the Green Party, Social Equality Minister Ilan Gilon decided to retire due to health issues and Galon was left with former MKs Isawi Farij and Tamar Zandberg, and Tel Aviv City Councillor Maharte Baruch-Ron to join Labor with her.

Labor List (2021):
1. Prime Minister Isaac Herzog
2. Economy Minister Itzik Shmuli
3. Education Minister Zehava Galon (Meretz)
4. Communication Minister Merav Michaeli
5. Defense Minister Omer Bar Lev
6. Speaker Revital Swid
7. Coalition Chairwoman Michal Biran
8. Science and Technology Minister Erel Margalit
9. Religious Affairs Minister Michael Melchior
10. Periphery Development Minister Miri Regev
11. MK Emily Moati
12. MK Zouheir Bahloul
13. Fmr. MK Isawi Farij (Meretz)
14. Fmr. Yeruham Mayor Michael Biton
15. MK Mickey Rosenthal
16. MK Nachman Shai
17. Journalist Gadeer Mreeh
18. Fmr. National Student Union Chairman Ram Shefa
19. MK Eran Hermoni (General Secretary)
20. Fmr. MK Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
21. MK Leah Fadida
22. Script-writer Ibtisam Mara'ana
23. MK Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin
24. Tel Aviv City Councillor Maharte Baruch-Ron (Meretz)
25. MK Henrique Zimmerman

2021 was also the year for the grand entrance of a figure many were expecting for the long time in the political field- the popular former IDF Chief, Benny Gantz. All major parties from center to left courted him- Herzog and Lapid both offered him the #2 spot on their party's list and a promise for Defense Minister, and Kadima leader Benny Begin offered to step down as leader and allow Gantz to run (and probably win) in the resulting primary. In the end, Gantz seemed to have decided he wants to aim highest- Prime Minister- and the vehicle for that was in Kadima. Begin, who was 78 years old at that point, was happy to announce his retirement and so the fight for the leadership of the centrist party ensued.

Gantz was an enigma to many- his positions weren't exactly clear, and both the Livnist center-left wing of the party and the Beginist center-right wing wanted to see him as one of their own. In the end, he had to face Minister Moshe Kahlon, who seemed frustrated from his lack of progress in the party, Minister Gideon Sa'ar and MK Avi Dichter from the party's right, and Minister Yoel Hasson from the left. In the end, Gantz advanced into the second round against Hasson, who enjoyed a split in the party's right, but was defeated by the former IDF Chief quite handily.

Kadima Leadership election, 2021 (First Round)
Fmr. IDF Chief Benny Gantz- 37.6% ✓
Immigration and Integration Minister Yoel Hasson- 20.9% ✓
Home Minister Gideon Sa'ar- 18.3%
Agriculture Minister Moshe Kahlon- 18.1%
MK Avi Dichter- 5.1%

Kadima Leadership election, 2021 (Second Round)
Fmr. IDF Chief Benny Gantz- 61.3% ✓
Immigration and Integration Minister Yoel Hasson- 38.7%

The party's list primary included several new figures brought in by Gantz's ascension, including former MK Hili Trooper from Labor, Deputy Tel Aviv Mayor Asaf Zamir, entrepreneur Yizhar Shai, historian Yoaz Hendel and attorney Michal Cotler-Wunsh. Others retired of old age or personal reasons, including Dan Meridor (who announced his intention to run for President in the upcoming 2021 election to replace President Michael Eitan), Reuven Rivlin, Ruhama Avraham and Carmel Shama Hacohen (who ran for, and won the office of Ramat Gan Mayor in 2018). The party list primary included the repudiation of most former Likud members who came with Sa'ar, as MKs Haim Katz, Gamliel and Hanegbi were dropped to unrealistic places and Ministers Sa'ar and Elkin fell sharply too.

Kadima List (2021):
1. Fmr. IDF Chief Benny Gantz
2. Immigration and Integration Minister Yoel Hasson
3. Agriculture Minister Moshe Kahlon
4. MK Merav Ben Ari
5. Deputy Tel Aviv Mayor Asaf Zamir
6. MK Akram Hasson
7. Culture and Sports Minister Limor Livnat
8. MK Moshe Ya'alon
9. MK Nino Abesadze
10. MK Rachel Azaria
11. Home Minister Gideon Sa'ar
12. Fmr. MK Hili Trooper
13. Historian Yoaz Hendel
14. MK Ksenia Svetlova
15. MK Orit Farkash-Hacohen
16. Energy Minister Ze'ev Elkin
17. Author Einat Wilf
18. MK Shlomo Molla
19. MK Majalli Wahabi
20. Attorney Michal Cotler-Wunsh
21. MK Yohanan Plesner
22. Fmr. Deputy Kiryat Shmona Mayor Yifat Shasha-Biton
23. MK Avi Dichter
24. Jerusalem City Councillor Roy Folkman
25. Ret. Major General Eyal Ben-Reuven

Now leading the largest right-wing party, Naftali Bennet had an issue. He was personally popular in the public due to his young image and detailed covid-19 plans, but his party was a heavy weight- a vast public was unwilling to vote for it due to its image as a sectarian religious zionism party. And so, along with MKs Ayelet Shaked, Shuli Mualem-Refael and Nir Orbach, he announced that he was leaving the Jewish Home and forming a new party- the New Right. He managed to get quite a few recruits to his new party- retired lieutenant colonel and pilot Matan Kahana (who was Bennet's friend), Sderot Mayor Alon Davidi, Mafdal activist Idit Silman, disability rights activist Shirley Pinto, journalist Eliashiv Reichner. The most major recruits for Bennet were former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, who got the #2 spot on the list, and MKs Gilad Erdan and Michael Ratzon who jumped ship from the increasingly unstable Likud.

New Right List (2021):
1. Opposition Leader Naftali Bennet
2. Fmr. Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat
3. MK Ayelet Shaked
4. MK Gilad Erdan
5. Ret. Lt. Colonel Matan Kahana
6. Sderot Mayor Alon Davidi
7. MK Shuli Mualem-Refael
8. MK Nir Orbach
9. Activist Shirley Pinto
10. MK Michael Ratzon
11. Activist Idit Silman
12. Journalist Eliashiv Reichnet
13. Author Yifat Erlich
14. Staffer Jeremy Gimpel
15. Attorney Yomtob Kalfon

Jewish Home was left in shambles and in debt by Bennet and Shaked, and so had to find a way to recover quickly. Rafi Peretz, the former IDF Chief Rabbie, was chosen as the party's leader, but his troubles didn't even start as Ahi-National Union chose young firebrand MK Bezalel Smotrich as their leader. Smotrich challenged Peretz, claiming his party's strength and his own experience in the Knesset should give him the first place in a united list. When Peretz refused, Smotrich announced an independent run, and polls showed him at 3-4 seats while the Jewish Home couldn't pass the threshold. This led Peretz to cave in and accept the #2 spot on the list, in exchange for more spots for his party and the more major Ministry in case his party is in government. Not resting for a moment, Smotrich went on and signed agreements with three other far-right parties- Eli Yishai's Yachad, the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit, led by former MK Michael Ben Ari, and the homophobic party Noam, led by Avi Maoz, whose main aim was delegitimizing the LGBTQ community. This created an ultra-conservative party, which united all the far-right and racist forces in Israel. The union was dubbed "United Right Wing Parties". The Supreme Court eventually blocked Otzma Yehudit members Michael Ben Ari, Baruch Marzel and Bantzi Gopstein from running, due to racist incitement, but allowed the run of the next Otzma representative, attorney Itamar Ben Gvir.

United Right Wing Parties List (2021):
1. MK Bezalel Smotrich (Ahi-National Union)
2. Fmr. IDF Chief Rabbie Rafi Peretz (Jewish Home)
3. MK Eli Yishai (Yachad)
4. MK Moti Yogev (Jewish Home)
5. Attorney Itamar Ben Gvir (Otzma Yehudit)
6. MK Orit Strook (Ahi-National Union)
7. Jerusalem City Councillor Hagit Moshe (Jewish Home)
8. Activist Avi Maoz (Noam)
9. MK Yoni Chetboun (Yachad)
10. MK Eli Ben Dahan (Jewish Home)
11. Party Chairman Ofir Sofer (Ahi-National Union)
12. MK Avi Wortzman (Jewish Home)
13. Attorney Simcha Rothman (Ahi-National Union)
14. Party Chairman Yitzhak Waserlauf (Otzma Yehudit)
15. Fmr. MK Zevulun Kalfa (Yachad)

In Likud, following yet another disappointing election where they became the second biggest right-wing party, there was a lot of worry due to the rise of the New Right and three-way split that included the URWP alliance. Party leader Danny Danon resigned from his post, and a new figure jumped into the race, which many in Likud thought might be a saviour- retired Major General Yoav Galant, who was tapped as IDF Chief before the decision was overturned over allegations of unauthorized building in his mansion. He defeated several Likud figures, the most major of which was former Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz in the second round, and became Likud's next leader.

Likud Leadership election, 2021 (First Round)
Ret. Major General Yoav Galant- 29.0% ✓
Fmr. Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz- 27.7% ✓
Activist Amir Ohana- 23.2%
MK David Bitan- 17.8%
Activist Oren Hazan- 2.3%

Likud Leadership election, 2021 (Second Round)
Ret. Major General Yoav Galant- 53.9% ✓
Fmr. Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz- 46.1%

Likud tried to recruit several new figures into the list, and ended up with former pilot and party activist Yoav Kisch, retired lieutenant colonel Fateen Mulla, and retired major general and deputy IDF Chief Uzi Dayan.

Likud List (2021):
1. Ret. Major General Yoav Galant
2. MK Yuli Edlestein
3. MK Danny Danon
4. Fmr. Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz
5. MK Tzipi Hotovely
6. Activist Amir Ohana
7. MK Anat Berko
8. MK Ofir Akunis
9. MK Yariv Levin
10. MK David Bitan
11. Activist Yoav Kisch
12. Ret. Lt. Colonel Fateen Mulla
13. Fmr. Deputy Kiryat Gat Mayor Mickey Zohar
14. Ret. Major General Uzi Dayan
15. Fmr. MK Ayoob Kara

Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid was coming into the election with renewed political strength. His unpopular tenure as Finance Minister behind him, and way more political experience in his pockets, he was making less gaffes and having less trouble with his party members. He brought in a few new recruits, including the first woman major general in the IDF Orna Barbivai, Ra'anana Mayor and the first openly gay Mayor in Israel Eitan Ginzburg former deputy Police Commissioner Yoav Segalovich who founded the police's corruption investigation unit. Construction Minister Yael German resigned due to health issues (and replaced by MK Karin Elharar), while MK Ya'akov Perry and Internal Security Minister Shaul Mofaz also decided to retire and former MK Aliza Lavie was booted off the list.

Yesh Atid List (2021):
1. Justice Minister Yair Lapid
2. Ret. Major General Orna Barbivai
3. Tourism Minister Meir Cohen
4. Construction Minister Karin Elharar
5. MK Pnina Tamano Shata
6. MK Ofer Shlah
7. MK Elazar Stern
8. Ra'anana Mayor Eitan Ginzburg
9. Fmr. MK Yoel Razvozov
10. Jerusalem City Councillor Merav Cohen
11. Fmr. MK Mickey Levy
12. Fmr. Deputy Police Commissioner Yoav Segalovich
13. Activist Idan Roll
14. Fmr. Student National Union Chair Boaz Toporovsky
15. Ret. Brigadier General Nira Shpak

The Green Party, hoping to capitalize on its success from the 2017 election, was feeling optimistic. Meretz was off the field as a competitor for the green public, and the government's environmental and transportation reforms were mainly credited to Shaffir, who was a popular Transportation Minister who was considered hard-working and transparent. Several new figures joined the party, including the left-wing former deputy chief of the IDF Yair Golan, MK Nitzan Horovitz and former MK Michal Rozin from Meretz, activist and Rabin granddaughter Noa Rothman and environmentalist journalist Miki Haimovich.

For the first time, the party held an open list primary, in which Minister Cohen Paran came first, followed by the popular MKs Kariv, Abu-Sweid and Fink, and then several newcomers. MK Alon Tal, who was a grey figure despite environmentalist credentials, found himself in the 10th place.

Green Party List (2021):
1. Transportation Minister Stav Shaffir
2. Environmental Protection Minister Yael Cohen Paran
3. MK Gilad Kariv
4. MK Zinab Abu-Sweid
5. MK Yair "Yaya" Fink
6. Ret. Major General Yair Golan
7. MK Nitzan Horovitz
8. Journalist Miki Haimovich
9. Fmr. MK Michal Rozin
10. MK Alon Tal
11. Attorney Iris Han
12. Activist Avi Buskila
13. Activist Nitzan Kahana
14. Fmr. MK Eran Ben Yemini
15. Activist Noa Rothman

Among the smaller parties, Lieberman was trying to reinvent himself as a secular crusader, Feiglin was reaffirming Zehut's libertarian direction, and Orly Levy tried and failed to find a partner for a union- Labor, Kadima and Yesh Atid all refused to give her reserved slots. So, she decided to run alone again at the head of Gesher.

The election season was fairly contentious, but the spirits between the main contenders- Herzog and Gantz- were mostly positive and there weren't a lot of ugly attacks. Herzog was running a disciplined, quiet campaign, highlighting his stewardship as Prime Minister and the need for a stable hand, while not making many media appearances. Gantz's inexperience, meanwhile, was showing, as his campaign was quite rocky with several media gaffes that became internet memes and were highlighted by Labor as proofs that he wasn't ready to lead the country. Lapid, on the contrary, showed the experience and what he learned through his political career, shedding the slogans and explosive statements of his early years for a tighter ship, highlighting himself as experienced and moderate. This led to a steady uptick in his numbers, biting into Kadima's initial lead on Labor after Gantz's entrance.

Bennet's New Right project started at high numbers, easily in the third place after Kadima and Labor, but as the time went the novelty was lost and their numbers steadily lost height, without the natural base they had in the Jewish Home. The ones who rose instead were Yesh Atid, United Right Wing Parties, Zehut and even Likud, a party that started the campaign with relatively good numbers but quickly fell down due to a less-than-ideal leadership by new leader Galant and an unappealing image.

Two other parties who seemed to benefit a lot were the Democratic Arab List, which was gaining a lot of popularity both among the Arabs, due to an announcement of specific terms to enter a government, and among some Jews, and the Green Party, which was trendy among young people and its detailed policy plans were popular.

Israeli 2021 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Isaac Herzog)- 28 Seats ↑ (+2)
Kadima (Benny Gantz)- 14 Seats ↓ (-6)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 12 Seats ↑ (+3)
Democratic Arab List (Ayman Odeh)- 12 Seats ↑ (+3)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 9 Seats ↑ (+3)
New Right (Naftali Bennett)- 7 Seats (new)
United Torah Judaism (Moshe Gafni)- 7 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Likud (Yoav Galant)- 6 Seats ↓ (-4)
United Right Wing Parties (Bezalel Smotrich)- 6 Seats ↓ (-8)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 6 Seats ↑ (+1)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 Seats ↑ (+1)
Zehut (Moshe Feiglin)- 4 Seats ↑ (+1)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Mansur Abbas)- 4 Seats ↓ (-1)
Gesher (Orly Levy-Abekasis)- 0 Seats ↓ (-2)

The election resulted in a resounding victory for the Labor Party. At 28 seats, Herzog led the biggest party by far, with Kadima and Yesh Atid quite far behind it. However, the coalition had to be with the center again. Gantz demanded rotation in the Prime Minister's role, but Herzog refused. In the end, a move by the Prime Minister to sign a coalition agreement with the Democratic Arab List, as well as Yesh Atid and the Greens, sufficed- Gantz realized that the coalition had 61 seats even without him and caved in, taking the Defense, Education, Construction, Communication, Tourism and Diaspora Ministries and joining the government with his party. As for the other coalition partners, Lapid took the Foreign Ministry, as well as the Economy, Health, Immigration and Integration and Culture and Sports ministries. The Greens got the Home, Transportation and Environmental Protection Ministries. Odeh himself decided to take only Deputy Ministries in the Home, Construction, Internal Security and Agriculture offices, who would get special authorities in regards to the Arab public. He said his party was "not yet ready" for Ministries in the Israeli government, but "getting there".

In his own party, Herzog had a big prize- the Finance Ministry, which he gave to the economy professor, former MK and Commerce Minister Avishai Braverman, despite the expectation of Itzik Shmuli to get it. This was, according to sources close to Herzog, because he did not trust Shmuli with the role, and angered the young MK, who felt he was sidelined and almost refused the offer of the Welfare Ministry given to him, only very reluctantly agreeing. The Justice Ministry, another prize, was given to MK Merav Michaeli, with Miri Regev getting Internal Security, a big promotion for the loudmouthed but popular Labor member.

Israel's 37th Government
Coalition: Labor (28), Kadima (14), Yesh Atid (12), Democratic Arab List (12) Green Party (9)
Total: 75 Seats

Prime Minister: Isaac Herzog (Labor)
Foreign Minister: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)
Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Benny Gantz (Kadima)
Finance Minister: Avishai Braverman (Labor)
Justice Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Home Minister: Stav Shaffir (Green)
Education Minister: Yoel Hasson (Kadima)
Internal Security Minister: Miri Regev (Labor)
Economy and Industry Minister: Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)
Transportation Minister: Zinab Abu-Sweid (Green)
Health Minister: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Construction and Housing Minister: Merav Ben Ari (Kadima)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Itzik Shmuli (Labor)
Communication and Media Minister: Akram Hasson (Kadima)
Energy and Water Minister: Michal Biran (Labor)
Environmental Protection Minister: Yael Cohen Paran (Green)
Agriculture Minister: Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Pnina Tamano Shata (Yesh Atid)
Culture and Sports Minister: Karin Elharar (Yesh Atid)
Tourism Minister: Asaf Zamir (Kadima)
Science and Technology Minister: Erel Margalit (Labor)
Social Equality Minister: Zehava Galon (Labor)
Diaspora and Jerusalem Affairs Minister: Limor Livnat (Kadima)
Religious Affairs Minister: Michael Melchior (Labor)

Speaker of the Knesset: Revital Swid (Labor)
Coalition Chair: Mickey Rosenthal (Labor)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Nachman Shai (Labor)
Finance Committee Chair: Moshe Kahlon (Kadima)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Ayman Odeh (Democratic Arab List)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Gilad Kariv (Green)
Immigration, Integration and Diaspora Committee Chair: Nino Abesadze (Kadima)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Ofer Shelah (Yesh Atid)
Economy Committee Chair: Nir Barkat (New Right)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part XIII)



Prime Minister Herzog's new government was fairly large and stable in the standards of recent Israeli governments. His term was characterized by stability, as Israel remained a successful and popular international and regional actor and the economy remained strong, with the coronavirus crisis slowly winding down. Recent government actions to invest in the periphery and in public transportation seemed to be slowly working to reduce the gap with the center of Israel, but traffic jams and air pollution remained a problem, and the Haredi issue started rising anew as statistics showed population growth could reach problematic levels.

The Green Party pushed hard for more restrictions on private cars and more investment on high-tech public transportation. At the same time, Yesh Atid pushed for reducing child tax credits, reforming the haredi education system and drastically reducing funding for yeshivah students who don't work. Herzog blocked both of these measures, and there wasn't much action during his term save for a reform that allowed public transportation in saturdays in many secular areas and the passing of a law to legalize recreational marijuana. One step taken by the government was raising the threshold to 3.25% or 4 seats- a move that was seen as an attack against right-wing parties, which were small and fractured. Many protested the move as anti-democratic, but Prime Minister Herzog said it was a move that would help bring more stability to the political system.

Mainly, as the 2025 election approached, there seemed to be a feeling of stagnation for many Israelis, though others viewed it as stability.

In 2021, there was a Presidential election to replace President Michael Eitan. The government's candidate was former Finance Minister Dan Meridor, a widely-respected figure who went from the conservative part of Likud to the Livnist, center-left part of Kadima through his political life. His chief rivals were former Foreign Minister David Levy and former Jewish Agency Chairman Natan Sharansky. Meridor, with the support of both Labor and Kadima, won on the first round.

2021 Israeli Presidential Election (First Round)
Fmr. Finance Minister Dan Meridor (Kadima)- 68 votes ✓
Fmr. Jewish Agency Chairman Natan Sharansky (Independent)- 24 votes
Fmr. Foreign Minister David Levy (Likud)- 17 votes
Abstain- 11 votes

In the U.S., 2024 had another close Presidential election, in which President Kelly Loeffler managed to win reelection against the Democratic nominee, California Senator Kamala Harris.

President Kelly Loeffler (R-GA)/Vice President Michael Steele (R-MD)- 48.9% (289 EVs) ✓
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)- 49.3% (249 EVs)
Others- 1.8% (0 EVs)

Ahead of the 2025 election, Herzog was bracing for a reelection campaign without any clear rivals- he didn't have any challenge within Labor either. A new major figure was Aviv Kochavi, the IDF Chief until 2023. Major retirements came from Michael Melchior (ending the last influence of the late Meimad party), Nachman Shai, Zouheir Bahloul, Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin and Zehava Galon. In the list primary, Shmuli took the first place again, followed closely by Michaeli, Swid, Kochavi, Biran, Regev and Bar Lev.

Labor List (2025):
1. Prime Minister Isaac Herzog
2. Welfare Minister Itzik Shmuli
3. Justice Minister Merav Michaeli
4. Speaker Revital Swid
5. Fmr. IDF Chief Aviv Kochavi
6. Energy Minister Michal Biran
7. Internal Security Minister Miri Regev
8. Agriculture Minister Omer Bar Lev
9. MK Emily Moati
10. Science and Technology Minister Erel Margalit
11. MK Gadeer Mreeh
12. MK Mickey Rosenthal
13. MK Ram Shefa
14. MK Ibtisam Mara'ana
15. MK Michael Biton
16. MK Na'ama Lazimi
17. MK Tamar Zandberg
18. MK Henrique Zimmerman
19. Activist Mohammad Zoabi
20. MK Leah Fadida
21. MK Maharte Baruch-Ron
22. Activist Lili Ben Ami
23. MK Isawi Farij
24. Attorney Alice Goldman
25. Tel Aviv City Councillor Maya Nuri

But contrary to all predictions, a rival did rise for Herzog. In Kadima, Gantz beat back a minor challenge as he was still seen as the best leader for the party, but polls weren't pretty and showed the party pretty much tied with Yesh Atid at 12-14 seats. Negotiations started between the two parties for a merger that would allow them to challenge Labor, but Gantz and Lapid couldn't agree on who should lead it. In the end, Lapid came up with a creative solution that Gantz surprisingly agreed to- they would merge with an equal representation for both parties on the list, and the leader would be decided after an open primary (with the list being decided in the same way next election too). The party would still be named Kadima, Lapid pretty much giving up on the brand he worked hard to create in favour of an older, still-popular brand that had the wheel for over a decade.

In the open leadership primary, Gantz and Lapid both ran. Surprisingly, it was Lapid who came out with the win, taking lead of the party. With Israel's centrist forces united, their polling numbers jumped and they became a clear threat to Herzog's rule.

Kadima Leadership election, 2025 (First Round)
Foreign Minister Yair Lapid- 51.6% ✓
Defense Minister Benny Gantz- 48.4%

After Lapid's win, several Kadima politicians left the union, mainly those to the right- MK Moshe Kahlon decided to retire, while Gideon Sa'ar left to join Bennet in New Right. In Yesh Atid, Minister Meir Cohen resigned during the term due to advancing age and was replaced as Health Minister by Elazar Stern and as MK by Idan Roll.

Kadima List (2025):
1. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)
2. Defense Minister Benny Gantz (Kadima)
3. Education Minister Yoel Hasson (Kadima)
4. Economy Minister Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)
5. Construction Minister Merav Ben Ari (Kadima)
6. Immigration and Integration Minister Pnina Tamano Shata (Yesh Atid)
7. Tourism Minister Asaf Zamir (Kadima)
8. MK Ofer Shlah (Yesh Atid)
9. Diaspora Minister Limor Livnat (Kadima)
10. Culture and Sports Minister Karin Elharar (Yesh Atid)
11. Communication and Media Minister Akram Hasson (Kadima)
12. Health Minister Elazar Stern (Yesh Atid)
13. MK Nino Abesadze (Kadima)
14. MK Yoel Razvozov (Yesh Atid)
15. MK Hili Trooper (Kadima)
16. MK Merav Cohen (Yesh Atid)
17. MK Rachel Azaria (Kadima)
18. MK Mickey Levy (Yesh Atid)
19. MK Moshe Ya'alon (Kadima)
20. MK Idan Roll (Yesh Atid)
21. MK Yoaz Hendel (Kadima)
22. MK Eitan Ginzburg (Yesh Atid)
23. MK Ksenia Svetlova (Kadima)
24. MK Yoav Segalovich (Yesh Atid)
25. Fmr. MK Orit Farkash-Hacohen (Kadima)

The Green Party, riding on its wave of success, held a primary that maintained pretty much the same list. The party's current MKs were popular, and there weren't many new figures that came in.

Green Party List (2025):
1. Home Minister Stav Shaffir
2. Environmental Protection Minister Yael Cohen Paran
3. Transportation Minister Zinab Abu-Sweid
4. MK Gilad Kariv
5. MK Michal Rozin
6. MK Miki Haimovich
7. MK Yair "Yaya" Fink
8. MK Yair Golan
9. MK Nitzan Horovitz
10. Activist Avi Buskila
11. Fmr. MK Alon Tal
12. Activist Nitzan Kahana
13. Attorney Iris Han
14. Fmr. MK Eran Ben Yemini
15. Jerusalem City Councillor Lora Wherton

On the right, the situation was grim. Many were calling for a united front to avoid the collapse of parties like Likud beneath the newly-raised threshold. In Likud, Yoav Galant faced leadership challenges from long-time Likud figure Yisrael Katz and a new face- MK Amir Ohana, a gay MK who was promoting very liberal economic positions together with an attack against "PC culture" and social liberalism, which was aided by his position as a gay man. Both Katz and Galant promised to seek a grand deal to unite with New Right and Zehut to create a large right-wing party and prevent a waste of votes, while Ohana remained mum on the issue. In the end, Ohana got a landslide victory on the first round.

Likud Leadership election, 2025 (First Round)
MK Amir Ohana- 50.8% ✓
Fmr. Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz- 29.3%
Likud Leader Yoav Galant- 19.9%

A few days after his victory, Ohana and Feiglin announced a union deal between Likud and Zehut, with a platform focused on economic libertarianism and the fight against "social authoritarianism" and "PC culture", as well as the shoring up of "Jewish values in Israel" in the face of increased numbers of refugees, Arab activism and "globalist values". Ohana refused further union deals, leaving New Right and the Union of Right Wing Parties to run separately. Ohana also promoted the candidacy of far-right activist figures, chiefly Yair Netanyahu, the son of former Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu who was notorious for inciteful and aggressive messages on social media, former MK Yinon Magal who resinged due to sexual assault allegations, author and anti-feminist activist Irit Linor, far-right activist and rapper Yoav Eliasi (known also as "the Shadow") and far-right anti-immigrant activists Sheffi Paz (herself a lesbian woman) and May Golan. Old-time Likud activists such as Katz, Akunis, Danon and Hotovely were pushed back on the list.

Likud-Zehut List (2025):
1. MK Amir Ohana (Likud)
2. MK Moshe Feiglin (Zehut)
3. Activist Yair Netanyahu (Likud)
4. MK Yuli Edlestein (Likud)
5. MK Gilad Elfer (Zehut)
6. Activist Shefi Paz (Likud)
7. Rapper Yoav Eliasi (Likud)
8. MK Shai Malka (Zehut)
9. Fmr. MK Yinon Magal (Likud)
10. MK Tzipi Hotovely (Likud)
11. Author Irit Linor (Likud)
12. MK Libi Molad (Zehut)
13. Activist May Golan (Likud)
14. MK Yisrael Katz (Likud)
15. MK Ronit Dror (Zehut)

Bennet briefly negotiated a union with Smotrich, but their relationship was too sour to allow it. Smotrich decided to continue the unity with the far-right Otzma Yehudit and Noam, while putting up tough terms for the Jewish Home and Yachad. MK Rafi Peretz decided to resign as leader of the party, and the party elected Jerusalem City Councillor Hagit Moshe as the new leader. After they were unable to reach terms with Smotrich, the Jewish Home endorsed the New Right, and got a place on the list for Moshe though MK Moti Yogev left for Smotrich. Yachad didn't run either, endorsing United Torah Judaism, with Yoni Chetboun joining Smotrich. Smotrich called his new party "Religious Zionism", though religious zionists such as Bennet and former Minister Michael Melchior attacked him as "unrepresentative".

Religious Zionism List (2025):
1. MK Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism)
2. Party Chairman Ofir Sofer (Religious Zionism)
3. MK Itamar Ben Gvir (Otzma Yehudit)
4. MK Orit Strook (Religious Zionism)
5. MK Moti Yogev (Religious Zionism)
6. Activist Avi Maoz (Noam)
7. Activist Michal Waldiger (Religious Zionism)
8. Activist Baruch Marzel (Otzma Yehudit)
9. Attorney Simcha Rothman (Religious Zionism)
10. Attorney Racheli Tzinkin (Religious Zionism)
11. Party Chairman Yitzhak Waserlauf (Otzma Yehudit)
12. Fmr. MK Yoni Chetboun (Religious Zionism)
13. Attorney Eldad Rabinovich (Noam)
14. Activist Bentzi Gopstein (Otzma Yehudit)
15. Fmr. MK Zevulun Kalfa (Religious Zionism)

Bennet, meanwhile, welcomed Kadima MK Gideon Sa'ar into his list and morphed into the more moderate right-wing list among the three.

New Right List (2025):
1. Opposition Leader Naftali Bennet
2. MK Ayelet Shaked
3. MK Nir Barkat
4. Fmr. MK Gideon Sa'ar
5. Activist Shirley Pinto
6. MK Matan Kahana
7. MK Gilad Erdan
8. MK Alon Davidi
9. Activist Idit Silman
10. Fmr. MK Nir Orbach
11. Author Yifat Erlich
12. Fmr. MK Gila Gamliel
13. Staffer Jeremy Gimpel
14. Fmr. MK Michael Ratzon
15. Attorney Yomtob Kalfon

The election was a fight in two tiers. On the central stage was the fight between Labor and Kadima, both large parties. Lapid had the advantage on Herzog on charisma, and Herzog had experience. However, the attempt to paint Lapid as incompetent was failing, as he managed to project a much more stable and balanced image than before. On the right, there was a dirty fight between several smaller parties, Bennet was attacked for being "a liberal", Ohana's Likud was attacked for "not standing up for right-wing values" and for "populism", and Smotrich's Religious Zionism was attacked for extremism. Lieberman was trying to keep Yisrael Beiteinu's secular niche but was fighting it hard to be heard above the noise.

Israeli 2025 Legislative Election (Results)
Kadima-Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 29 Seats ↑ (+4)
Labor Party (Isaac Herzog)- 23 Seats ↓ (-5)
Likud-Zehut (Amir Ohana)- 12 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democratic Arab List (Ayman Odeh)- 12 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 10 Seats ↑ (+1)
New Right (Naftali Bennett)- 7 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 7 Seats ↑ (+1)
United Torah Judaism (Moshe Gafni)- 6 Seats ↓ (-1)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 6 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Mansur Abbas)- 4 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 4 Seats ↓ (-1)

The elections resulted in a resounding victory for Lapid. With 29 seats, he led the largest party by far, with Labor receiving a blow and falling to only 23 seats. Among the right, Amir Ohana was the undoubted victor- Bennet and Smotrich remained mostly stagnant, but Likud-Zehut won 12 seats and became the third largest party (tied with the Democratic Arab List). The Greens won double digits of seats for the first time, reassuring their strength in Israeli politics, and Yisrael Beiteinu managed to survive, though barely. Lapid decided to form another wide government, with Labor, the Greens the New Right and Yisrael Beiteinu. Herzog got the Foreign Ministry, with Labor also getting Internal Security, Economy, Transportation, Welfare, Culture and Sports and Social Equality. The Greens got Education for Shaffir, as well as the Energy, Environmental Protection and Agriculture Ministries. Bennet found himself with the Justice Ministry he wanted, as well as the Diaspora and Religious Affairs Ministries. And Lieberman got the Home Ministry, along with Periphery Development and Tourism.

Israel's 38th Government
Coalition: Kadima-Yesh Atid (29), Labor (23), Green Party (10), New Right (7), Yisrael Beiteinu (4)
Total: 75 Seats

Prime Minister: Yair Lapid (Kadima)
Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Isaac Herzog (Labor)
Defense Minister: Benny Gantz (Kadima)
Finance Minister: Yoel Hasson (Kadima)
Justice Minister: Naftali Bennet (New Right)
Education Minister: Stav Shaffir (Green)
Home Minister: Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Internal Security Minister: Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Economy and Industry Minister: Itzik Shmuli (Labor)
Transportation Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Health Minister: Orna Barbivai (Kadima)
Construction and Housing Minister: Merav Ben Ari (Kadima)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Michal Biran (Labor)
Energy and Water Minister: Yael Cohen Paran (Green)
Communication and Media Minister: Ofer Shelah (Kadima)
Environmental Protection Minister: Michal Rozin (Green)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Pnina Tamano Shata (Kadima)
Agriculture Minister: Yair Golan (Green)
Culture and Sports Minister: Miri Regev (Labor)
Tourism Minister: Hamad Amar (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Science and Technology Minister: Asaf Zamir (Kadima)
Social Equality Minister: Emily Moati (Labor)
Diaspora and Jerusalem Affairs Minister: Nir Barkat (New Right)
Periphery Development Minister: Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Religious Affairs Minister: Matan Kahana (New Right)

Speaker of the Knesset: Limor Livnat (Kadima)
Coalition Chair: Mickey Levy (Kadima)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Elazar Stern (Kadima)
Finance Committee Chair: Revital Swid (Labor)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Gilad Kariv (Green)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Evgeny Sova (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Immigration, Integration and Diaspora Committee Chair: Nino Abesadze (Kadima)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Ayelet Shaked (New Right)
Economy Committee Chair: Yuli Edlestein (Likud)

[Dr. MB]

As President Ronald Reagan once said, "there's nothing better for the inside of a man than the outside of a horse."

President Kelly Loeffler is taking that to a whole new level! She's proving that women can take horses as lovers - and win elections - just as well as men can. Move over, Mr. Hands:  Washington, D.C. is the new Enumclaw!

Let's hope our first horse girl President can inspire horse lovers everywhere to follow their dreams.

(This page originally appeared in the December issue of our member magazine, Horse Illustrated, on which every feature in the magazine is created by our members!)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part XIV)



Yair Lapid finally achieved his long-time dream of becoming Prime Minister with another Kadima-Labor government. This continued what many called the "consensual era of Israeli politics", in which the center and the left worked together during government terms and fought in elections. It started with Prime Minister Livni in 2006 and continued through the 2010s, 2020s and into the 2030s.

During Lapid's first term, one of the main issues was education reform. Education Minister Shaffir put through many reforms to modernize and change the education system, including the way testing was done, making her a rarely popular Education Minister. Meanwhile, the government passed a controversial reform that pretty much ended the separation of Israeli public education into secular, religious, Arabic and Haredi systems. This was done along with increased freedoms for school managers to tailor their school according to the population going there (with the regulation of the Education Ministry). It also included a dramatic raise in salaries for teachers and increased incentives along with increased professional standards for teachers. The reform was supported by Arabic leaders, who viewed it as a way to equalize education, but strongly opposed by the Haredi and religious zionist leaders. Haredi protests (by now a thing of daily life) were joined with religious zionsit protests, most focused on Naftali Bennet, whose party reluctantly supported the reform and said it would be healthy for Israeli society in the long term.

This reform was the main thing done during that term, and according to scholars years later contributed a lot to the health of the Israeli economy in the next decades and the famous secularization in Haredi population during the 2040s. Other than that, the government handled a delicate situation of a switch in Palestinian Presidents, when Mohammad Dahlan retired and was replaced in a mostly democratic election by a member of the moderate center-right Reformist party.

In 2028, a new President was chosen. There were many candidates running after former Prime Minister Herzog decided to continue as Labor leader, including former Religious Affairs Minister Michael Melchior from Meimad and Labor, former MK Nachman Shai from Labor, MK Gideon Sa'ar from the New Right, Knesset Speaker Limor Livnat from Kadima, MK Akram Hasson from Kadima and former MK Danny Danon from Likud. To the second round advanced Melchior, who got the official endorsement of the Green Party and a coalition including religious, Arab and most Labor MKs, as well as Speaker Livnat, who had the support of most Kadima MKs.

2028 Israeli Presidential Election (First Round)
Fmr. Religious Affairs Minister Michael Melchior (Labor/Meimad)- 34 votes ✓
Speaker Limor Livnat (Kadima)- 25 votes ✓
Fmr. MK Danny Danon (Likud)- 21 votes
Fmr. MK Nachman Shai (Labor)- 18 votes
MK Akram Hasson (Kadima)- 14 votes
MK Gideon Sa'ar (New Right)- 5 votes
Abstain- 3 votes

In the second round, Melchior surprised most observers when he upset Livnat, even though her position as Speaker was considered a safe way forward and the preference for her among most of the right was an advantage. Michael Melchior was elected to replace President Dan Meridor.

2028 Israeli Presidential Election (First Round)
Fmr. Religious Affairs Minister Michael Melchior (Labor/Meimad)- 62 votes ✓
Speaker Limor Livnat (Kadima)- 52 votes
Abstain- 6 votes

In the same year, the United States held its own Presidential election. Vice President Steele managed to win the GOP primary despite accusations of being too liberal, while the popular Senator Warnock of Georgia became the Democratic nominee, trying to replace the President he replaced in the Senate. In the end, Warnock won quite handily, becoming the first black President of the United States.

Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA)/Governor Lulu Sikaly (D-TX)- 52.2% (342 EVs) ✓
Vice President Michael Steele (R-MD)/Senator Nancy Mace (R-SC)- 45.1% (196 EVs)
Others- 2.7% (0 EVs)

In Israel, the next elections were scheduled to 2029. The government, like most of the ones before it, held until close to that date, and the different parties were now preparing for another election. In Kadima, Lapid asserted his leadership and didn't get any challengers. Citing age and having enough of politics, several figures retired- Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya'alon and Mickey Levy. In the open primarie for the list, former Yesh Atid figures triumphed and pushed back most Kadima figures. Lapid also recruited major figures such as Jerusalem Mayor Ofer Berkovich, retired Major General Yifat Yerushalmi (who served as the army's chief solicitor and the second major general in history) and Ramat Gan Mayor (and former MK) Carmel Shama Hacohen. The former Kadima figures who remained in the top 25 were Yoel Hasson, Merav Ben Ari, Asaf Zamir, Limor Livnat, Akram Hasson and Nino Absadze. Popular MKs such as Hili Trooper, Rachel Azaria and Yoaz Hendel were pushed back. MK Ksenia Svetlova, popular among liberal Russian speakers, left and joined the Greens. Some grumbled, blaming Lapid for it, but his popularity as Prime Minister prevented any rebellion and the party remained whole, and in many ways reformed by Lapid.

Kadima List (2029):
1. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid
2. Health Minister Orna Barbivai
3. Jerusalem Mayor Ofer Berkovich
4. Communication Minister Ofer Shlah
5. MK Karin Elharar
6. Immigration and Integration Minister Pnina Tamano Shata
7. MK Idan Roll
8. Finance Minister Yoel Hasson
9. Construction Minister Merav Ben Ari
10. MK Merav Cohen
11. MK Elazar Stern
12. MK Yoel Razvozov
13. Ret. Major General Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi
14. Tourism Minister Asaf Zamir
15. Ramat Gan Mayor Carmel Shama Hacohen
16. MK Eitan Ginzburg
17. MK Akram Hasson
18. MK Boaz Toporovsky
19. Speaker Limor Livnat
20. MK Yoav Segalovich
21. MK Nira Shpak
22. MK Nino Abesadze
23. Fmr. Hurfeish Regional Council Head Mufid Mari
24. Activist Vladimir Beliak
25. Activist Ron Katz

Labor, meanwhile, decided to keep Herzog as leader without challenge, and geared up to try and replace Lapid, though they knew it was an uphill battle. Many Israelis were getting annoyed with the constant Kadima-Labor governments, and Herzog said he would work to change that and try to assemble a diverse government with the Arabs and some of the right. There were some retirements, including former Defense Minister Omer Bar Lev. However, Herzog managed to recruite some popular figures- Be'er Sheba Mayor Ruvik Danilovich and Nahariyah Mayor Rone Marelli. Overall, the list didn't change much, though MKs Swid and Kochavi managed to pass Shmuli and Michaeli and win the first places in the primary and Danilovich achieved a high spot on the list.

Labor List (2029):
1. Foreign Minister Isaac Herzog
2. MK Revital Swid
3. MK Aviv Kochavi
4. Economy Minister Itzik Shmuli
5. Transportation Minister Merav Michaeli
6. Culture and Sports Minister Miri Regev
7. Be'er Sheba Mayor Ruvik Danilovich
8. Welfare Minister Michal Biran
9. Social Equality Minister Emily Moati
10. MK Na'ama Lazimi
11. MK Gadeer Mreeh
12. MK Michael Biton
13. MK Ibtisam Mara'ana
14. MK Mohammad Zoabi
15. MK Ram Shefa
16. MK Erel Margalit
17. MK Henrique Zimmerman
18. Nahariyah Mayor Ronen Marelli
19. MK Lili Ben Ami
20. MK Mickey Rosenthal
21. MK Maharte Baruch-Ron
22. MK Leah Fadida
23. Attorney Alice Goldman
24. MK Isawi Farij
25. MK Tamar Zandberg

The Greens continued what was called the "rush for the Mayors" by recruiting Rishon Lezion Mayor Raz Kinstlich, a member of the party, for their list. At the same time, MK Nitzan Horovitz, formerly from Meretz, ran for Mayor of Tel Aviv following the retirement of long-time Mayor Ron Huldai. Horovitz defeated Science and Technology Minister Asaf Zamir, who ran too, and thus left the Knesset, and allowed former MK Alon Tal to return to the parliament. MK Ksenia Svetlova from Kadima also left and joined the Greens.

Green Party List (2029):
1. Education Minister Stav Shaffir
2. MK Gilad Kariv
3. Energy Minister Yael Cohen Paran
4. MK Zinab Abu-Sweid
5. Rishom Lezion Mayor Raz Kinstlich
6. Environmental Protection Minister Michal Rozin
7. Agriculture Minister Yair Golan
8. MK Miki Haimovich
9. MK Avi Buskila
10. MK Ksenia Svetlova
11. MK Alon Tal
12. MK Yair "Yaya" Fink
13. Activist Nitzan Kahana
14. Activist Avi Yalao
15. Attorney Iris Han

Likud, meanwhile, decided to continue the union with Zehut, with the agreement that the parties would fully merge in the coming term, but the remaining old-guard MKs and former MKs had enough- led by MKs Yuli Edlestein and Tzipi Hotovely, as well as former MKs Yisrael Katz, Danny Danon and Yoav Galant, they left the party, seeking to form a new party. Amir Ohana didn't mind, continuing with his list of firebrands.

Likud-Zehut List (2029):
1. Opposition Leader Amir Ohana (Likud)
2. MK Moshe Feiglin (Zehut)
3. MK Yair Netanyahu (Likud)
4. MK Yoav Eliasi (Likud)
5. MK Irit Linor (Likud)
6. MK Gilad Elfer (Zehut)
7. MK Shefi Paz (Likud)
8. MK Shai Malka (Zehut)
9. Activist May Golan (Likud)
10. MK Libi Molad (Zehut)
11. MK Yinon Magal (Likud)
12. Fmr. MK Ronit Dror (Zehut)
13. Activist Oren Hazan (Likud)
14. Fmr. MK David Bitan (Likud)
15. Dr. Refael Mines (Zehut)

In the New Right, there was turmoil too. Bennet was struggling to find a way to make his party the main vehicle of the right again, but couldn't seem to find a way. Declaring that the party's joining of Lapid's government was a mistake, MK and long-time Bennet ally Ayelet Shaked left the party, joined by MK Gilad Erdan and party members Gila Gamliel, Nir Orbach, Yifat Erlich, and Yomtob Kalfon. The New Right list remained fairly thin now, and Bennet wasn't able to recruit major members other than Kadima MK Yoaz Hendel (who wasn't able to find a place on the list). Instead, he sought a union with Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu which was struggling to pass the threshold. Together, they hoped to form a list of the Israeli moderate right that could compete with the center or the left.

New Right-Yisrael Beiteinu List (2029):
1. Justice Minister Naftali Bennet (New Right)
2. Home Minister Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
3. Diaspora Minister Nir Barkat (New Right)
4. MK Shirley Pinto (New Right)
5. Periphery Development Minister Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
6. Religious Affairs Minister Matan Kahana (New Right)
7. Activist Idit Silman (New Right)
8. Tourism Minister Hamad Amar (Yisrael Beiteinu)
9. MK Yoaz Hendel (New Right)
10. MK Gideon Sa'ar (New Right)
11. MK Evegeny Sova (Yisrael Beiteinu)
12. Fmr. MK Alon Davidi (New Right)
13. Staffer Jeremy Gimpel (New Right)
14. Fmr. MK Yulia Malinovsky (Yisrael Beiteinu)
15. Fmr. MK Eli Avidar (Yisrael Beiteinu)

Ayelet Shaked formed a new party, and was joined by the group of Likud drop-outs led by Edlestein and Hotovely. They named the new party "Yamina", or "rightwards".

Yamina List (2029):
1. MK Ayelet Shaked
2. MK Yuli Edlestein
3. MK Tzipi Hotovely
4. MK Gilad Erdan
5. Fmr. MK Danny Danon
6. Fmr. MK Nir Orbach
7. Author Yifat Erlich
8. Fmr. MK Yisrael Katz
9. Fmr. MK Gila Gamliel
10. Attorney Yomtob Kalfon

Meanwhile, Religious Zionism continued with their list, though the increased presence of Kahanist activists, who weren't banned by the Supreme Court, was worrying.

Religious Zionism List (2029):
1. MK Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism)
2. MK Itamar Ben Gvir (Otzma Yehudit)
3. MK Michal Waldiger (Religious Zionism)
4. Activist Baruch Marzel (Otzma Yehudit)
5. MK Ofir Sofer (Religious Zionism)
6. MK Avi Maoz (Noam)
7. Attorney Simcha Rothman (Religious Zionism)
8. MK Orit Strook (Religious Zionism)
9. MK Moti Yogev (Religious Zionism)
10. Party Chairman Yitzhak Waserlauf (Otzma Yehudit)
11. Attorney Eldad Rabinovich (Noam)
12. Activist Bentzi Gopstein (Otzma Yehudit)
13. Fmr. MK Yoni Chetboun (Religious Zionism)
14. Attorney Racheli Tzinkin (Religious Zionism)
15. Fmr. MK Zevulun Kalfa (Religious Zionism)

In the election, trends showed the popularity of Prime Minister Lapid- Labor was struggling to catch up to Kadima, which was rising in the polls and seemed headed for over 30 seats. Things were further complicated for Herzog by the surge for the Green Party, which had the popularity of Shaffir as Education Minister and was biting into Labor's base. On the right, the split threatened to sink tens of thousands of right-wing votes below the threshold. Ohana hoped to keep Likud's rise on the right road, but polls were grim for him- many voters seemed to dislike the party's new slate of MKs, that caused controversies on a daily basis and made many outrageous, wrong or inciteful statements. This actually helped both Bennet and Shaked, which helped them both stay above the threshold in polls.

Israeli 2029 Legislative Election (Results)
Kadima (Yair Lapid)- 34 Seats ↑ (+5)
Labor Party (Isaac Herzog)- 19 Seats ↓ (-4)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 14 Seats ↑ (+4)
Democratic Arab List (Ayman Odeh)- 13 Seats ↑ (+1)
Likud-Zehut (Amir Ohana)- 8 Seats ↓ (-4)
New Right-Yisrael Beiteinu (Naftali Bennett)- 7 Seats ↓ (-4)
United Torah Judaism (Moshe Gafni)- 6 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 5 Seats ↓ (-2)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 5 Seats ↓ (-1)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Mansur Abbas)- 5 Seats ↑ (+1)
Yamina (Ayelet Shaked)- 4 Seats (new)

The results were an eye-opener for many on the right. Likud gained some voters from Religious Zionism and the other extremes, but lost a lot of traditional Likud and Zehut voters to Yamina, the New Right and Kadima, and won just 8 seats. Bennet came out bruised again, remaining at 7 seats despite the union with Lieberman (in fact, it meant his party was at 5 seats now). Shaked passed her first test by passing the threshold, though barely, and the Haredi parties remained stagnant despite rising numbers in the population. It seemed like the right's shape was just getting worse.

Once again, Lapid had to form a government with Labor and the Greens, continuing the former coalition. The New Right was invited to join the government, but surprisingly decided to stay out and try to rebuild from the opposition. With a smaller but more homogenic government and a large number of seats for his party, Lapid had a lot of Ministries to hand out. While in the previous election Labor got a similar number of posts as Kadima, this time they had to be content with less- Herzog stayed on as Foreign Minister, and they also got the Finance, Home, Construction, Energy and Culture and Sports Ministries. The Greens, meanwhile, kept Shaffir at Education, and also received Health, Transportation, Environmental Protection and Diaspora Ministries.

In his own party, Lapid gave out Defense to Barbivai (making her the first woman Defense Minister), Economy to Berkovich, Justice to Elharar and Internal Security to Tamano Shata. Ofer Shelah replaced Limor Livnat as Speaker.

Israel's 39th Government
Coalition: Kadima (32), Labor (19), Green Party (14)
Total: 67 Seats

Prime Minister: Yair Lapid (Kadima)
Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Isaac Herzog (Labor)
Defense Minister: Orna Barbivai (Kadima)
Finance Minister: Itzik Shmuli (Labor)
Education Minister: Stav Shaffir (Green)
Justice Minister: Karin Elharar (Kadima)
Home Minister: Aviv Kochavi (Labor)
Internal Security Minister: Pnina Tamano Shata (Kadima)
Economy and Industry Minister: Ofer Berkovich (Kadima)
Transportation Minister: Yael Cohen Paran (Green)
Health Minister: Zinab Abu-Sweid (Green)
Construction and Housing Minister: Ruvik Danilovich (Labor)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Yoel Hasson (Kadima)
Energy and Water Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Communication and Media Minister: Merav Ben Ari (Kadima)
Environmental Protection Minister: Michal Rozin (Green)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Yoel Razvozov (Kadima)
Agriculture Minister: Akram Hasson (Kadima)
Culture and Sports Minister: Miri Regev (Labor)
Tourism Minister: Carmel Shama Hacohen (Kadima)
Science and Technology Minister: Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi (Kadima)
Social Equality Minister: Idan Roll (Kadima)
Diaspora Minister: Gilad Kariv (Green)
Religious Affairs Minister: Elazar Stern (Kadima)

Speaker of the Knesset: Ofer Shelah (Kadima)
Coalition Chair: Boaz Toporovsky (Kadima)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Revital Swid (Labor)
Finance Committee Chair: Merav Cohen (Kadima)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Raz Kinstlich (Green)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Ksenia Svetlova (Green)
Immigration, Integration and Diaspora Committee Chair: Limor Livnat (Kadima)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Michal Biran (Labor)
Economy Committee Chair: Shirley Pinto (New Right)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Part XV)



Prime Minister Yair Lapid's second term saw mostly political stability, and not much of a change. Globally, the efforts led by the United States through the past decades to combat global change showed results, with scientists for the first time optimistic that global warming was in a positive trend. In the year 2030, President Vladimir Putin in Russia suddenly died, leading to a wave of instability in the country. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin assumed control, but many other figures were vying for power and as the Russian economy continued tanking, a process beginning in the Putin years, waves of protests began in big cities, calling for democracy and liberal reforms.

In the United States, the news in Russia and the environment made President Warnock historically popular, and he won re-election without much hardship against a weakened Republican Party.

President Rephael Warnock (D-GA)/Vice President Lulu Sikaly (D-TX)- 54.0% (402 EVs) ✓
Senator Nancy Mace (R-SC)/Senator Spencer Cox (R-UT)- 44.4% (136 EVs)
Others- 1.6% (0 EVs)

As the 2033 election approached, Prime Minister Lapid shocked the political scene when he announced that at the age of 70, he was retiring and not seeking another term. "Two terms should be the norm", he announced, "I'm doing this for a healthy democracy. Labor leader and Foreign Minister Isaac Herzog similarly retired from politics, setting the stage for major power struggles in the two major parties.

In Kadima, there were many candidates running- longtime MK and current Speaker Ofer Shelah, former Jerusalem Mayor and current Economy Minister Ofer Berkovich, Defense Minister Orna Barbivai, Labor Minister Yoel Hasson, Justice Minister Karin Elharar, the young Social Equality Minister Idan Roll, Internal Security Minister Pnina Tamano Shata, Communication Minister Merav Ben Ari and MK Asaf Zamir.

The results of the first round were surprising- frontrunners like Shelah, Hasson and Barbivai flopped, while two younger candidates with a lot of political talent were the victors- Berkovich and Tamano Shata advnaced to the second round.

Kadima Leadership election, 2033 (First Round)
Economy Minister Ofer Berkovich- 21.7% ✓
Internal Security Minister Pnina Tamano-Shata- 18.2% ✓
Defense Minister Orna Barbivai- 16.8%
Social Equality Minister Idan Roll- 16.5%
Justice Minister Karin Elharar- 10.1%
Speaker Ofer Shelah- 6.5%
Labor Minister Yoel Hasson- 4.9%
MK Asaf Zamir- 3.5%
Communication Minister Merav Ben Ari- 1.8%

The second round was a fight between two candidates of a similarly center-right liberal faction of the party. Orna Barbivai, similarly from that faction, refused to endorse. Idan Roll, Ofer Shelah, Yoel Hasson and Asaf Zamir, hailing from the center-left faction, all endorsed Berkovich, signaling the left's preference for him. Elharar, despite beinf from the center-left, endorsed Tamano Shata, as did Ben Ari. In the end, Berkovich got the decisive edge and won the leadership.

Kadima Leadership election, 2033 (Second Round)
Economy Minister Ofer Berkovich- 55.1% ✓
Internal Security Minister Pnina Tamano-Shata- 44.9%

Following that, Shelah, MK Limor Livnat, Agriculture Minister Akram Hasson and MK Elazar Stern all retired due to advancing age. The party's list gave the first spots to Tamano-Shata and Roll, signaling the strength of the newer generation in the party.

Kadima List (2033):
1. Economy Minister Ofer Berkovich
2. Internal Security Minister Pnina Tamano Shata
3. Social Equality Minister Idan Roll
4. Defense Minister Orna Barbivai
5. Justice Minister Karin Elharar
6. Tourism Minister Carmel Shama Hacohen
7. Science and Technology Minister Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi
8. Immigration and Integration Yoel Razvozov
9. MK Merav Cohen
10. Communcation Minister Merav Ben Ari
11. MK Asaf Zamir
12. MK Boaz Toporovsky
13. MK Vladimir Beliak
14. MK Eitan Ginzburg
15. Labor Minister Yoel Hasson
16. MK Yorai Lahav-Hertzano
17. MK Nira Shpak
18. MK Yoav Segalovich
19. MK Nino Abesadze
20. MK Inbar Bezek
21. MK Tania Mazarsky
22. MK Mufid Mari
23. MK Ron Katz
24. MK Moshe Tur-Paz
25. MK Yael Ron Ben-Moshe

In Labor, there was a unique situation. In the past, there was always some "giant of the party" ready to get into the fray and win the leadership. Peres in 2000, Barak in 2004, Peretz in 2006, Herzog in 2013. Since that year, Herzog served as leader of the party for two whole decades (with a major challenge only in 2017, from Shelly Yachimovich), and his retirement left a void without an obvious choice to fill it. And so, many important figures in the party threw their hats into the ring.

The first to announce was Itzik Shmuli, a longtime major name, who served as Economy, Labor and now Finance Minister and had a lot of experience on socio-economic issues, which were his flagship. The next was Merav Michaeli, who grew to be an icon for many feminists and social activists and was popular with young voters, who served in the past as Communication, Justice, Transportation and now Energy Minister and so had a broad experience. Another entree who shook the field was the former IDF Chief Aviv Kochavi, MK since 2025, who served as Home Minister. Miri Regev, the former IDF Speaker, ran too- she was a longtime, very colorful figure in the party with a penchant for gaffes and fiery statements against the right which helped her to rise up the list into the top 10, and served as Periphery Development, Internal Security, and now Culture and Sports Minister. The next to announce was Ruvik Danilovich, the popular former longtime Mayor of Be'er Sheba who was now Construction Minister. MK Michal Biran, formerly Energy and Labor Minister and a self-proclaimed socialist, ran too. So did MK Michael Biton, formerly Yeruham Mayor, and MK Ibtisam Mara'ana, who said that her candidacy as an Arab woman was mainly historical. And lastly, MK Emily Moati, formerly Social Equality Minister, ran too. One name was absent from the list- the #2 on Labor's list in the last election, MK and former Speaker Revital Swid, who was considered likely to run for President in 2035.

In a free-for-all first round, two names finally emerged- Shmuli and Michaeli, longtime rivals in the party. Kochavi, considered the frontrunner at first, came third by a razor-thin margin, while Danilovich earned a formidable 4th place. Regev and Mara'ana overperformed, while the rest stayed behind.

Labor Leadership election, 2033 (First Round)
Finance Minister Itzik Shmuli-  17.2% ✓
Energy Minister Merav Michaeli- 15.9% ✓
Home Minister Aviv Kochavi- 15.5%
Construction Minister Ruvik Danilovich- 13.9%
Culture and Sports Minister Miri Regev- 12.0%
MK Ibtisam Mara'ana- 10.2%
MK Michal Biran- 7.4%
MK Emily Moati- 5.3%
MK Michael Biton- 2.6%

Despite far less candidates in the second round, it was a much more tense fight than the first. Michaeli and Shmuli were close in polling, with Shmuli narrowly leading most of the time. He was considered a natural heir to the party, while her image was unconventional. However, Shmuli seemed to have a lot of bad blood with many figures in the party. Herzog, while he didn't endorse anyone, helped Michaeli behind the scenes due to his dislike for Shmuli. She was also outright endorsed by Mara'ana, Biran and Moati, while Regev and Biton endorsed Shmuli and Danilovich and Kochavi stayed neutral. What sealed the deal was a recording released of Shmuli saying he'd leave the party and form a new one if he lost the next leadership race- this was considered the work of Green Party leader Stav Shaffir, who was a bitter rival of Shmuli. In the end, Michaeli upset Shmuli by a surprisingly large margin. In response, he announced he was retiring, and rumours said he was planning to launch a new party, the only one considered a possible partner in this was MK Biton (after Regev condemned his move and announced full support for Michaeli, as did Kochavi and Danilovich). Shmuli did form a new party, calling it the "Israeli Social Democratic Party", but wasn't even joined by Biton, and had to recruit a bunch of lower-level labor activists, including former Histadrut chairman Avi Nissenkorn who wasn't very popular. The party, starting at 7-8 seats, quickly crashed to 4 seats, on the edge of the threshold.

Labor Leadership election, 2033 (Second Round)
Energy Minister Merav Michaeli- 53.8% ✓
Finance Minister Itzik Shmuli- 46.2%

Labor's list, led by Michaeli, included even more strength for the younger generation of the party, and was considered fairly attractive to voters.

Labor List (2033):
1. Energy Minister Merav Michaeli
2. MK Revital Swid
3. Home Minister Aviv Kochavi
4. Construction Minister Ruvik Danilovich
5. MK Michal Biran
6. Culture and Sports Minister Miri Regev
7. MK Emily Moati
8. MK Ibtisam Mara'ana
9. MK Na'ama Lazimi
10. MK Gadeer Mreeh
11. MK Mohammad Zoabi
12. MK Erel Margalit
13. MK Ram Shefa
14. MK Lili Ben Ami
15. MK Henrique Zimmerman
16. MK Michael Biton
17. MK Ronen Marelli
18. Fmr. MK Maharte Baruch-Ron
19. Tel AViv Deputy Mayor Maya Nuri
20. Fmr. MK Mickey Rosenthal
21. Attorney Alice Goldman
22. Fmr. MK Leah Fadida
23. Activist Yitzhak Time
24. Fmr. MK Tamar Zandberg
25. Fmr. MK Eran Hermoni

In the Green Party, the list remained fairly stable, despite the retirement of MK and former Agriculture Minister Yair Golan.

Green Party List (2033):
1. Education Minister Stav Shaffir
2. Transportation Minister Yael Cohen Paran
3. Health Minister Zinab Abu-Sweid
4. Diaspora Minister Gilad Kariv
5. Environmental Protection Minister Michal Rozin
6. MK Mayor Raz Kinstlich
7. MK Ksenia Svetlova
8. MK Avi Buskila
9. MK Nitzan Kahana
10. MK Yair "Yaya" Fink
11. Animal's Rights Activist Yasmin Fridman
12. MK Avi Yalao
13. MK Miki Haimovich
14. MK Alon Tal
15. LGBTQ Activist Zehorit Shurek

The Israeli right, meanwhile, continued trying to find itself. Likud, in the grip of Ohana, finally absorbed Zehut and continued with a similar list, full of figures massively unpopular among the broader Israeli public. Religious Zionism also remained a union between Smotrich's party and the Kahanist forces.

Likud-Zehut List (2033):
1. Opposition Leader Amir Ohana (Likud)
2. MK Yair Netanyahu
3. MK Moshe Feiglin
4. MK Gilad Elfer
5. MK Irit Linor
6. Activist May Golan
7. MK Shefi Paz
8. MK Yoav Eliasi
9. Fmr. MK Yinon Magal
10. Activist Mickey Zohar
11. Activist Oren Hazan
12. Fmr. MK Libi Molad
13. MK Shai Malka
14. Fmr. MK David Bitan
15. Fmr. MK Ronit Dror

The rest of the right, made of Bennet and Lieberman's New Right-Yisrael Beiteinu and Shaked's Yamina, realized that they had to find a new way forward. Attempting to mimick the success of Kadima, the three parties agreed to unite and fully merge in exchange for an open primary for leader and list. However, Bennet and Shaked also agreed not to run against each other, and allowed a new name to enter and run alone, without challenge- Jerusalem Mayor Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, an ideological but moderate figure on the right. The new party was named "the Zionist Union".

Zionist Union List (2033):
1. Jerusalem Mayor Fleur Hassan-Nahoum (Independent)
2. MK Naftali Bennet (New Right)
3. MK Ayelet Shaked (Yamina)
4. MK Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
5. MK Shirley Pinto (New Right)
6. MK Matan Kahana (New Right)
7. MK Gilad Erdan (Yamina)
8. MK Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
9. MK Idit Silman (New Right)
10. MK Nir Barkat (New Right)
11. MK Tzipi Hotovely (Yamina)
12. Fmr. MK Hamad Amar (Yisrael Beiteinu)
13. Fmr. MK Gideon Sa'ar (New Right)
14. MK Yuli Edlestein (Yamina)
15. Staffer Jeremy Gimpel (New Right)
16. Fmr. MK Nir Orbach (Yamina)
17. Fmr. MK Evegeny Sova (Yisrael Beiteinu)
18. Fmr. MK Alon Davidi (New Right)
19. Fmr. MK Yoaz Hendel (New Right)
20. Attorney Yomtob Kalfon (Yamina)

The election was characterized by a surge for Labor, with Michaeli running an exciting but disciplined campaigned that made her an icon among younger Israelis. Powered by young people and a strong base of older Labor voters, her party assumed the lead, and never let it go. In the end, Berkovich ran a strong campaign as Kadima leader, but without the pull of figures such as Livni and Lapid, the party once again fell sharply, losing a lot of seats. On the right, Hassan-Nahoum got a strong result, bringing her party into the double-digits Israeli right-wingers were hoping for. Religious Zionism almost fell below the threshold, showing the weakening grip of far-right politics and homophobia on the religious zionist public, and Likud also fell down, fighting with Smotrich's party for a shrinking far-right base and losing all of its traditional, center-right voters to the Zionist Union. Shmuli fell way below the threshold, getting less than 1% of the votes.

Israeli 2033 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Merav Michaeli)- 33 Seats ↑ (+14)
Kadima (Ofer Berkovich)- 21 Seats ↓ (-13)
Democratic Arab List (Ayman Odeh)- 15 Seats ↑ (+2)
Zionist Union (Fleur Hassan-Nahoum)- 13 Seats ↑ (+2)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 13 Seats ↓ (-1)
United Torah Judaism (Moshe Gafni)- 7 Seats ↑ (+1)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 5 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Likud (Amir Ohana)- 5 Seats ↓ (-3)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Mansur Abbas)- 4 Seats ↓ (-1)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 4 Seats ↓ (-1)
Social Democratic Party (Itzik Shmuli)- 0 Seats (new)

Following the election, Michaeli was facing two choices for a government- either a broad center-left government of Labor, Kadima, the Democratic Arab List and the Green Party, or a narrow government without Kadima, holding a razor-thing edge of 61 seats. She quickly signed agreements with the DAL and the Greens, and invited Kadima to join her government.

This led to a very tense discussion in Kadima. Berkovich believed they should stay in opposition and come back in the next election, but many in his party, including Ministers Tamano-Shata and Roll, wanted to join and demanded a vote in the Kadima party committee. Berkovich agreed to hold a vote of over a thousand party delegates. In the end, the Kadima committee decided to continue the "era of consensus" and join the government.

Kadima, as the major partner, received the Foreign Ministry, as well as the Internal Security, Economy, Construction, Communication, Diaspora and Immigration and Integration Ministries. The DAL finally got Ministries, making it a historical government- the chief among them was the Home Ministry, along with the Health and Social Equality Ministries. The Greens, meanwhile, received the Edcucation, Transportation, Environmental Protection and Energy Ministries.

In her own party, Michaeli gave Defense to Aviv Kochavi, while Michal Biran became Finance Minister. Ruvik Danilovich got Justice, Emily Moati got Labor, Regev became Agriculture Minister, Ibtisam Mara'ana got the prestigious Culture and Sports office, Gadeer Mreeh becaeme tourism Minister, Erel Margalit returned to the Science and Technolog Minister and Na'ama Lazimi got the Religious Affairs Ministry. Revital Swid, meanwhile, returned as Speaker.

Israel's 40 Government
Coalition: Labor (33), Kadima (21), Democratic Arab List (15), Green Party (13)
Total: 82 Seats

Prime Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister: Ofer Berkovich (Kadima)
Defense Minister: Aviv Kochavi (Labor)
Finance Minister: Michal Biran (Labor)
Education Minister: Stav Shaffir (Green)
Justice Minister: Ruvik Danilovich (Labor)
Home Minister: Ayman Odeh (Democratic Arab List)
Internal Security Minister: Pnina Tamano Shata (Kadima)
Economy and Industry Minister: Idan Roll (Kadima)
Transportation Minister: Gilad Kariv (Green)
Health Minister: Ahmad Tibi (Democratic Arab List)
Construction and Housing Minister: Orna Barbivai (Kadima)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Emily Moati (Labor)
Energy and Water Minister: Zinab Abu-Sweid (Green)
Communication and Media Minister: Karin Elharar (Kadima)
Environmental Protection Minister: Yael Cohen Paran (Green)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Yoel Razvozov (Kadima)
Agriculture Minister: Miri Regev (Labor)
Culture and Sports Minister: Ibtisam Mara'ana (Labor)
Tourism Minister: Gadeer Mreeh (Labor)
Science and Technology Minister: Erel Margalit (Labor)
Social Equality Minister: Mohammad Darawshe (Democratic Arab List)
Diaspora Minister: Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi (Kadima)
Religious Affairs Minister: Na'ama Lazimi (Labor)

Speaker of the Knesset: Revital Swid (Labor)
Coalition Chair: Lili Ben Ami (Labor)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Henrique Zimmerman (Labor)
Finance Committee Chair: Carmel Shama Hacohen (Kadima)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Aida Touma-Suleiman (Democratic Arab List)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Raz Kinstlich (Green)
Immigration, Integration and Diaspora Committee Chair: Vladimir Beliak (Kadima)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Mohammad Zoabi (Labor)
Economy Committee Chair: Idit Silman (Zionist Union)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario #1: Rabin Lives (Epilogue)



Prime Minister Merav Michaeli presided over a wildly successful first term. During her time, Israel became energy-independent via widespread green, especially solar energy use, and completing it with nuclear and natural gas energy sources. This was just in time for the global oil crash, due to increasing shortages and the collapse of the Saudi monarchy. This allowed Israel to become one of the nations with the lowest energy prices, and allowed it to export energy to neighbours such as Lebanon, Palestine and the Republic of Jordan. This, along with a place at the front of various high-tech technologies and a successful education reform bearing fruits, led to an economic boom for Israel, which the government used to decrease prices and introduce a new progressive UBI system, helping to assuage fears over the rising unemployment due to the rise of AI.

In 2035, Israel elected its first woman President when Speaker Revital Swid ran and easily won the place. She defeated former MK Yuli Edlestein from the Zionist Union and former MK Elazar Stern from Kadima. Replacing Swid as Speaker was MK Gadeer Mreeh, who in turn was replaced as Tourism Minister by Ram Shefa.

2035 Israeli Presidential Election (First Round)
Speaker Revital Swid (Labor)- 65 votes ✓
Fmr. MK Yuli Edlestein (Zionist Union)- 29 votes
Fmr. MK Elazar Stern (Kadima)- 24 votes
Abstain- 2 votes

In the 2037 elections, the question wasn't whether Michaeli would win, but by how much. Before the election, Kadima saw the replacement of its leader, Ofer Berkovich, by Internal Security Minister Pnina Tamano Shata. However, while Shata was popular and ran a good campaign, it wasn't enough- the election signaled a collapse for Kadima from a safe spot at the top two of parties to the third place. Centrism lost its appeal with many Israelis, and the story of the election was the extremely good result Michaeli's Labor got- over 40 seats for the first time since Rabin- and the rise of the Zionist Union as the new vehicle of the political right, getting the second place. It also signaled, without coincidence, the fall of Israel's oldest right-wing party and former party of government- Likud, who fell below the threshold under the rule of Amir Ohana. The party would never return to the Knesset, and disbanded several cycles later.

Israeli 2037 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Merav Michaeli)- 42 Seats ↑ (+9)
Zionist Union (Fleur Hassan-Nahoum)- 18 Seats ↑ (+5)
Kadima (Pnina Tamano Shata)- 16 Seats ↓ (-5)
Democratic Arab List (Sondos Saleh)- 14 Seats ↓ (-1)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 11 Seats ↓ (-2)
United Torah Judaism (Yitzhak Pindrus)- 6 Seats ↓ (-1)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 5 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Mansur Abbas)- 4 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 4 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Likud (Amir Ohana)- 0 Seats ↓ (-5)

Michaeli continued the government of last time, with 83 seats, after Tamano Shata decided that staying in government was the better choice for her party. Once again, it was a stable and successful government. In the next election, however, Michaeli decided to retire and was replaced by Ruvik Danilovich. While popular, Danilovich didn't have Michaeli's pull, and suffered a decrease in his party's numbers in the election. Still, he remained the leader of the biggest party and formed a government similar to the ones Michaeli formed.

Israeli 2041 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party (Ruvik Danilovich)- 34 Seats ↓ (-8)
Zionist Union (Fleur Hassan-Nahoum)- 28 Seats ↑ (+10)
Kadima (Pnina Tamano Shata)- 18 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democratic Arab List (Sondos Saleh)- 14 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 12 Seats ↑ (+1)
United Torah Judaism (Yitzhak Pindrus)- 6 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 4 Seats ↓ (-1)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Mansur Abbas)- 4 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 0 Seats ↓ (-4)
Likud (Yair Netanyahu)- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)

Danilovich presided over a hard term- the Bursting of the Chinese Bubble shook the entire world, and this time Israel couldn't escape the waves of the economic crash. Soaring unemployment, especially among the Haredi who were struggling to live, and a recession caused Danilovich to lose the next election to Hassan-Nahoum, who finally managed to return the Israeli right to a position of government. The Renewal Party, led by a group of religious zionist activists who rejected Smotrich's far-right party after its fall below the threshold but still rejected the left, managed to get into the Knesset for the first time in that election. In 2042, a new President was also elected- former Defense Minister Aviv Kochavi.

Israeli 2045 Legislative Election (Results)
Zionist Union (Fleur Hassan-Nahoum)- 35 Seats ↑ (+7)
Labor Party (Ruvik Danilovich)- 28 Seats ↓ (-6)
Kadima (Pnina Tamano Shata)- 17 Seats ↓ (-1)
Democratic Arab List (Sondos Saleh)- 12 Seats ↓ (-2)
Green Party (Stav Shaffir)- 9 Seats ↓ (-3)
Renewal (Idit Silman)- 5 Seats (new)
Arab List for Peace and Equality (Walid Taha)- 5 Seats ↑ (+1)
United Torah Judaism (Yitzhak Pindrus)- 5 Seats ↓ (-1)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 4 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Likud (Yair Netanyahu)- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)

With Kadima, Renewal and the Haredi parties, Fleur Hassan-Nahoum formed her next government. Joining it in the last moment was the conservative Arab List for Peace and Equality, trying to find a way to surpass the DAL. The government managed its foreign affairs well in the face of the Chinese collapse into several nation-states. Hassan-Nahoum cooperated with US President Mondaire Jones to create an economic organization in the Middlea East, including Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan, the Republic of Arabia, Turkey and Oman. The free trade and technological cooperation in that organization contributed to the region's revival from the recession.

In 2049, as the Haredi population quickly dwindled due to mass-secularization of the youngest generation, the Haredi parties united in the election in an attempt to stay above the threshold. Likud didn't return for another run, and the rest of the parties remained the same as Hassan-Nahoum won a safe reelection.

Israeli 2049 Legislative Election (Results)
Zionist Union- 37 Seats ↑ (+2)
Labor Party- 26 Seats ↓ (-2)
Kadima- 14 Seats ↓ (-3)
Democratic Arab List- 13 Seats ↑ (+1)
Green Party- 11 Seats ↑ (+2)
United Haredi Party- 7 Seats ↓ (-2)
Arab List for Peace and Equality- 6 Seats ↑ (+1)
Renewal- 6 Seats ↑ (+1)
Religious Zionism- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)

Forming a new government similar to the last one, Hassan-Nahoum continued her work. In the same year as the new government was formed, former Prime Minister Merav Michaeli was elected the next President. Historically, in 2052 Iran's Islamic theocracy collapsed and was peacefully replaced by a democratic regime, which joined a year later the Middle Eastern Economic Union.

In 2053, Hassan-Nahoum did not run for reelection. The Israeli public swung left again, and elected Labor leader Michal Biran.

Israeli 2053 Legislative Election (Results)
Labor Party- 35 Seats ↑ (+9)
Zionist Union- 31 Seats ↓ (-6)
Kadima- 13 Seats ↓ (-1)
Green Party- 12 Seats ↑ (+1)
Democratic Arab List- 11 Seats ↓ (-2)
Renewal- 7 Seats ↑ (+1)
United Haredi Party- 6 Seats ↓ (-1)
Arab List for Peace and Equality- 5 Seats ↓ (-1)
Religious Zionism- 0 Seats ↕ (+-0)

Biran started her first term leading a country not divided but united, in a region not war-torn but rising in power and influence globally. Prime Minister Rabin, who signed a historical peace agreement with Palestine, was credited for a lot of it by history scholars, and so were the Prime Ministers who came after and kept the agreement safe- Peres, Sharon and Livni, Begin, Herzog and Lapid, Michaeli, Hassan-Nahoum and Biran. Without China and Russia in the picture, the United States and the European Federation were the major powers of the world, but Israel was a very powerful economic and technological powerhouse that no one could ignore.

List of Prime Ministers:
Yitzhak Rabin (Labor)- 1992-2000
Shimon Peres (Labor)- 1984-1986, 2000-2004
Ariel Sharon (Likud)- 2004-2006
Ehud Olmert (Likud, Kadima)- 2006
Tzipi Livni (Kadima)- 2006-2017
Benny Begin (Kadima)- 2017-2019
Isaac Herzog (Labor)- 2019-2025
Yair Lapid (Kadima)- 2025-2033
Merav Michaeli (Labor)- 2033-2041
Ruvik Danilovich (Labor)- 2041-2045
Fleur Hassan-Nahoum (Zionist Union)- 2045-2053
Michal Biran (Labor)- 2053-Current

List of Israeli Presidents:
Ezer Weizman (Labor)- 1993-2000
Moshe Katzav (Likud)- 2000-2006
Michael Eitan (Kadima)- 2006-2007 (Acting)
Shimon Peres (Labor)- 2007-2014
Michael Eitan (Kadima)- 2014-2021
Dan Meridor (Kadima)- 2021-2028
Michael Melchior (Labor\Meimad)- 2028-2035
Revital Swid (Labor)- 2035-2042
Aviv Kochavi (Labor)- 2042-2049
Merav Michaeli (Labor)- 2049-Current

List of U.S. Presidents:
Bill Clinton (Democratic)- 1993-2001
Al Gore (Democratic)- 2001-2009
John McCain (Republican)- 2009-2013
Hillary Clinton (Democratic)- 2013-2021
Kelly Loeffler (Republican)- 2021-2029
Raphael Warnock (Democratic)- 2029-2037
Peter Meijer (Republican)- 2037-2041
Mondaire Jones (Democratic)- 2041-2049
Jake Auchincloss (Republican)- 2049-current

[brucejoel99]

Jake Auchincloss (Republican)- 2049-current

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[BigVic]

McCain with 306-232...