True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again? (user search)
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  True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again? (search mode)
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Author Topic: True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again?  (Read 2368 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: May 17, 2021, 08:16:25 AM »

This is like asking if a Democrat will ever again win any state in the Mormon Triangle(WY,ID,UT), the Central Stack(ND-OK), or in the Mississippi-Ohio watershed(LA,AR,MO,IA,KY,IN,WV,TN,MS,AL,OH). 
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,689
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2021, 01:20:01 PM »

False. Party coalitions inevitably change over time. CA will inevitably go for the GOP again at some point in the future, probably when the Republican nominee wins a landslide again, like in 1972 and 1984. It won't happen until we get over our current hyperpolarization, and that may take a couple of decades to happen.

Those sort of things generally happen pretty quickly unless you foresee a situation in the 2020s or 2030s like in the Bush year if Democrats won maybe 8 or 9 house seats and 2 senate seats in 2006 and again came within one or two states of winning in 2008 while again falling just short in both houses. I could see that driving a situation where a lot of Democratic leaning voters tune out of politics and the Republicans put up even bigger institutional barriers. By 2012, Democrats send out a sacrificial lamb that loses by double-digits and in 2016, they finally win with someone like JBE, Krysten Sinema, or Tulsi Gabbard.


Or we could be in a situation where we finally have a crisis that we can't quickly bounce back from. The entire COVID was about as bad as the 1919 pandemic and that apparently did no more than enforce the current trends at the time. So the fact that COVID or even Trump (at least not immediately)  only sped things up a bit isn't really that remarkable. What it could mean is that we will see what set of events does depolarize things sooner than otherwise.
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