True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again?
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  True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again?
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Author Topic: True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again?  (Read 2332 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: May 15, 2021, 09:19:48 PM »

I believe this is true but curious to hear some opinions

I’m a firm believer that no Republican will ever carry California again whether that’s 50,100,150 years from now
George H W Bush will go down in the history books as the last Republican to ever win California
What do you think?
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2021, 11:37:13 PM »

Why. Pretty ignorant assumption and rather intellectually lazy too
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Samof94
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2021, 07:41:22 AM »

Why. Pretty ignorant assumption and rather intellectually lazy too
What if the GOP actually wins a future election by running a Latino man in his 40’s who is unusually socially liberal by GOP standards.?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2021, 08:20:42 AM »

True Antonio Villigosa or Tom Steyer are gonna be Govs in 2026 and they will be Reelected, they wanted to run in Recall but united behind Newsom, 2026 isn't far off
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2021, 10:38:27 AM »

Why. Pretty ignorant assumption and rather intellectually lazy too

I mean do you honestly ease any path for them winning in CA?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2021, 10:49:25 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2021, 10:52:56 AM by Roll Roons »

In the next few election cycles, it won't happen in a presidential election, although there might be a fluky state-level win once in a while.

But ever again is a long time. Coalitions change, and I think eventually, the stars will align in such a way that a Republican presidential candidate wins California. Though that probably doesn't happen until 2040 at the earliest, and I have no idea what the map would look like.
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2021, 11:08:12 AM »

FWIW njdem wrote a post-realignment timeline where CA votes R in 2036
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2021, 11:19:49 AM »

At this point, a >40% slice of the vote would be a success.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2021, 12:51:40 PM »

This is extremely dumb.  Look at a map of the 1916 or 1908 election and tell me anything in politics is permanent.
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2021, 02:33:39 PM »


No offense—I am not up for reading it.

The Republicans of today will need to change form before they can win California at the level of U.S. President.

I don’t think that is impossible.

If the Democrats do flip and carry Texas, it may become necessarily for change in today’s Republican Party.
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2021, 05:30:01 PM »


Looks interesting! What did the 2036 electoral map look like?

The 2036 Electoral Map



Gov. Crystal Sun (R-CA)/Sen. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) - 484 EVs
Pres. Joaquin Castro (D-TX)/VP Jason Kander (D-MO) - 170 EVs

Two things of note:
1. The House of Representatives is now working on the Wyoming Rule (technically it's now the Vermont Rule, but whatever), where the number of CDs is determined by the state's population divided by the least populated state's population (by the 2030 Census, this would be Vermont).
2. Yes, your eyes don't deceive you, that is a Republican California.

As for other elections, I'll reveal them as the story progresses. I plan to make big updates out of the 2020 and 2024 elections in particular.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2021, 07:03:13 PM »

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Pink Panther
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2021, 07:18:41 PM »

Eventually. If you told someone in 1936 that Vermont would ever vote Democratic, you would be laughed out the building. As some posters have already said, coalitions change over time, and eventually states change their political identities over time.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2021, 09:28:44 PM »

Eventually. If you told someone in 1936 that Vermont would ever vote Democratic, you would be laughed out the building. As some posters have already said, coalitions change over time, and eventually states change their political identities over time.

There is a joke about this as late as the White Christmas movie in 1954.  Vermont voted for LBJ a decade later. 
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2021, 02:14:57 AM »

False - the current alignment is not tenable (for the GOP) and they will eventually have to change.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2021, 02:24:06 AM »

False - the current alignment is not tenable (for the GOP) and they will eventually have to change.
Don’t pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden. Don’t fool yourself.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2021, 04:00:47 AM »

False - the current alignment is not tenable (for the GOP) and they will eventually have to change.
Don’t pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden. Don’t fool yourself.

You’ve made the classic strawman’s mistake of having read something that just isn’t there. Nowhere in the post you replied to did said post mention literally anything about the tenability of the Democratic coalition, let alone “pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden.” They simply opined that the current GOP coalition isn’t tenable in & of itself.

Indeed, no coalition is tenable in & of itself in the long-term. The New Deal coalition was tenable... ‘til it wasn’t. Likewise, the Reagan Revolution’s coalition was tenable... ‘til it wasn’t. And so it’ll go with the next coalitions as it does with all coalitions, be they Democratic or Republican: they’ll exist... ‘til they don’t, at which point they respond to the changing times & adapt to fight another day & eventually come back. Of course, they still have to exist at least somewhat in the meantime, which is what the post you replied to was getting at in its opinion: that the GOP coalition as currently constituted is untenable for the time being so long as the GOP doesn’t respond & adapt to said untenability, & whether you actually have a legitimate response to what they were actually saying beyond “no u” still remains to be seen.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2021, 04:16:34 AM »

False - the current alignment is not tenable (for the GOP) and they will eventually have to change.
Don’t pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden. Don’t fool yourself.

You’ve made the classic strawman’s mistake of having read something that just isn’t there. Nowhere in the post you replied to did said post mention literally anything about the tenability of the Democratic coalition, let alone “pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden.” They simply opined that the current GOP coalition isn’t tenable in & of itself.

Indeed, no coalition is tenable in & of itself in the long-term. The New Deal coalition was tenable... ‘til it wasn’t. Likewise, the Reagan Revolution’s coalition was tenable... ‘til it wasn’t. And so it’ll go with the next coalitions as it does with all coalitions, be they Democratic or Republican: they’ll exist... ‘til they don’t, at which point they respond to the changing times & adapt to fight another day & eventually come back. Of course, they still have to exist at least somewhat in the meantime, which is what the post you replied to was getting at in its opinion: that the GOP coalition as currently constituted is untenable for the time being so long as the GOP doesn’t respond & adapt to said untenability, & whether you actually have a legitimate response to what they were actually saying beyond “no u” still remains to be seen.
Do I pay attention to people who predicted a Blue Texas? No.
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2021, 07:17:45 AM »

Unless the republican party goes the way of the whigs then yes they will win CA again eventually.
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2021, 08:16:25 AM »

This is like asking if a Democrat will ever again win any state in the Mormon Triangle(WY,ID,UT), the Central Stack(ND-OK), or in the Mississippi-Ohio watershed(LA,AR,MO,IA,KY,IN,WV,TN,MS,AL,OH). 
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MarkD
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2021, 10:07:30 AM »

False. Party coalitions inevitably change over time. CA will inevitably go for the GOP again at some point in the future, probably when the Republican nominee wins a landslide again, like in 1972 and 1984. It won't happen until we get over our current hyperpolarization, and that may take a couple of decades to happen.
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Literally Just a Contrarian
KyrstenSinemaFan
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2021, 11:55:08 AM »
« Edited: May 17, 2021, 12:02:01 PM by Chuck Grassley/Kyrsten Sinema Stan »

Look, even if the GOP wins a plurality (if not a majority) of Hispanics and does better with Asians even, white liberals in the Bay Area and SoCal will ensure that CA isn’t within 15-20 points.

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2021, 01:20:01 PM »

False. Party coalitions inevitably change over time. CA will inevitably go for the GOP again at some point in the future, probably when the Republican nominee wins a landslide again, like in 1972 and 1984. It won't happen until we get over our current hyperpolarization, and that may take a couple of decades to happen.

Those sort of things generally happen pretty quickly unless you foresee a situation in the 2020s or 2030s like in the Bush year if Democrats won maybe 8 or 9 house seats and 2 senate seats in 2006 and again came within one or two states of winning in 2008 while again falling just short in both houses. I could see that driving a situation where a lot of Democratic leaning voters tune out of politics and the Republicans put up even bigger institutional barriers. By 2012, Democrats send out a sacrificial lamb that loses by double-digits and in 2016, they finally win with someone like JBE, Krysten Sinema, or Tulsi Gabbard.


Or we could be in a situation where we finally have a crisis that we can't quickly bounce back from. The entire COVID was about as bad as the 1919 pandemic and that apparently did no more than enforce the current trends at the time. So the fact that COVID or even Trump (at least not immediately)  only sped things up a bit isn't really that remarkable. What it could mean is that we will see what set of events does depolarize things sooner than otherwise.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2021, 03:06:27 PM »

Entirely depends on how long our species lasts.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2021, 04:38:16 PM »

False - the current alignment is not tenable (for the GOP) and they will eventually have to change.
Don’t pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden. Don’t fool yourself.

You’ve made the classic strawman’s mistake of having read something that just isn’t there. Nowhere in the post you replied to did said post mention literally anything about the tenability of the Democratic coalition, let alone “pretend like Democrats have a tenable coalition post Biden.” They simply opined that the current GOP coalition isn’t tenable in & of itself.

Indeed, no coalition is tenable in & of itself in the long-term. The New Deal coalition was tenable... ‘til it wasn’t. Likewise, the Reagan Revolution’s coalition was tenable... ‘til it wasn’t. And so it’ll go with the next coalitions as it does with all coalitions, be they Democratic or Republican: they’ll exist... ‘til they don’t, at which point they respond to the changing times & adapt to fight another day & eventually come back. Of course, they still have to exist at least somewhat in the meantime, which is what the post you replied to was getting at in its opinion: that the GOP coalition as currently constituted is untenable for the time being so long as the GOP doesn’t respond & adapt to said untenability, & whether you actually have a legitimate response to what they were actually saying beyond “no u” still remains to be seen.

Do I pay attention to people who predicted a Blue Texas? No. Obviously enough to respond to such people without so much as reading &/or even bothering to understand what it is that they're actually saying, yes.

FTFY.
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