MI-Target Insyght: Whitmer leads James/Craig

[VAR]

May 9-11, 800 RV, MoE: 3.5%

48% Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc)
42% James Craig (R)

49% Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc)
39% John James (R)

https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/27989/whitmer_leads_chief_craig_by_6_points_in_poll_for_michigan_governor

[Matty]

Pretty strong numbers for her, but Michigan polling just cannot be trusted.

[2016]

Pretty strong numbers for her, but Michigan polling just cannot be trusted.

Actually those are terrible Numbers for Whitmer especially against Craig who is largely unknown beyond Detroit.

[President Johnson]

Pretty strong numbers for her, but Michigan polling just cannot be trusted.

Actually those are terrible Numbers for Whitmer especially against Craig who is largely unknown beyond Detroit.

He has an (R) next to his name, which is enough for nearly 40% of the electorate of that state.

Lean Democratic at this point. Whitmer is favored, but of course shouldn't take anything for granted. Unfortunately, she's had a hard time delivering more results through legislative victories as Republican lawmakers have "other priorities".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Told everyone that Whitmer was gonna win, this state Reelected Granholm

Naysayers said Whitmer was going down, where is Snowlabrador he said that too

[SnowLabrador]

I still think Whitmer's going to lose. I don't believe polling, and the generic ballot is tied.

[Xing]

The interesting thing about the Michigan Senate race in 2020 is that polling pretty much nailed Peters's share of the vote. It just underestimated James's share by several points. A similar thing could happen this year, but who knows? Either way, Toss-Up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think Whitmer's going to lose. I don't believe polling, and the generic ballot is tied.

This is the same lead that DeSantis has on his opposition

By the way we didn't win 33 H seats in 2017, we won them on Oct 2018, polls are meaningless a yr out, when it comes to blue waves😃😃😃 D's performance matches Prez Biden and he is at 59 percent

You got your 2K, Johnson would have stopped 1400 payments of we didn't win GA

[2016]

I still think Whitmer's going to lose. I don't believe polling, and the generic ballot is tied.

Whitmer could lose or she could just hang on. Of the 3 Midwestern Governors (Walz, Evers, Whitmer) I view Evers most likely to lose so Evers likely loses before Whitmer loses.

As Craig gets more known beyond Detroit this Race will tighten considerably.

[MT Treasurer]

Toss-up, race should be within 2-3 points when all is said and done.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I still think Whitmer's going to lose. I don't believe polling, and the generic ballot is tied.

Do I actually have to point out the contradiction here?

[sting in the rafters]

The only important indicator from this is that Whitmer's at 48-49%. All this tells us is the D base is at home, that's a good sign but need to see a Whitmer vs. generic R poll before discerning where this race is really at.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toss-up, race should be within 2-3 points when all is said and done.

No

[lfromnj]

LOL @AfricanAmerican crosstab.

[ElectionsGuy]

If anything, just look at the Whitmer %s, not necessarily the margin. Looks like it'll be close.

[Chips]

I'd say Whitmer probably needs to be leading by 3-4 points or so to win on election night. The fact that she's at 48-49% of the vote and leading by 6-10 points is a good sign she'd win if the election were held today but things can and will very likely change. I'm comfortable saying this race is a true toss-up.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

36 percent of voters surveyed preferred James in the Republican primary, compared to 21 percent for Craig. The other 42 percent were undecided.

38% of the sample identified as Republican

A fuller release: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/TargetInsyght_MIRSNews_MI_GOV_2022.pdf

"Does Gretchen Whitmer deserve to be re-elected as governor in 2022?"

Yes 46%
No 41%
Unsure 13%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Adjusting for the ever-present Midwestern polling errors, this is going to be a tossup.