AZ-OHPI: Kelly leads all challengers by double digits, NUT map incoming, AZ GOP self-destructing 🚨

[SenatorCouzens]

As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.

They are all Republicans. And election results proved many of the polls were biased against them -- some of the worst were utter junk. So, not the best evidence to dismiss concerns for Kelly hitting 50.

That being said, I do agree too much is made of hitting 50% in a poll.

[MT Treasurer]

GOP has a higher recruiting flop risk here than anywhere else it seems.

I'm surprised this race hasn't been discussed much in the "potential Todd Akin redux" thread, although I suppose it's not a full Akin redux if it's a swing state.

Er, maybe not in that thread, but 80% of posts pertaining to this race (and PA-SEN) on this board are some variation of "Republicans are blowing it", "[insert name of random generic AZ Republican who’s hardly more 'radical' than any of the Republicans running in NC] is way too 'Trumpy' to win a general election," and "lol AZ GOP [PA GOP]." AZ Republicans could resurrect Ronald Reagan and people would be labeling him 'unelectable' because of Kelli Ward's tweets.

Any halfway competent Republican who makes a compelling case against Kelly in a somewhat friendly environment for their party will be trouble for Democrats, regardless of their 'ideology.' This should be, well, rather obvious. The fact that 'moderates' like Yee or Brnovich are faring as poorly as 'radicals' Ward and Biggs in this poll suggests that there might be more to those results than 'the AZ GOP blowing it' (namely underlying problems with this poll, Kelly's level of support reflecting Biden's approval at this point in time, most undecideds leaning R, etc.).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is gone for the Rs