Andrew Yang is probably the most likely person to primary Harris in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Afro Americans are all in for Harris, but Biden is our nominee as I have said many times before unless Rs take the H and an Independent Counsel investigates Biden for Hunter Biden probe, but that is gonna take more than 2 yrs and Biden already said he is a 2T Prez

Harris isn't the Nominee come 2024 she is the backup in case Hunter Biden probe comes up, she will be the Nominee in 2028

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's a shame but he'd lose, he'd be a much better candidate than Harris.

For sure.

Yang is the best candidate the Dems could have in 2024, to be frank.

He literally got 1% in the primary,

[Chips]

Not too sure.

[omar04]

It's a shame but he'd lose, he'd be a much better candidate than Harris.

For sure.

Yang is the best candidate the Dems could have in 2024, to be frank.

He literally got 1% in the primary,

And jumped from running for President to the mayor of NYC. Both aren't well suited for runs from a candidate who has no previous governmental positions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a shame but he'd lose, he'd be a much better candidate than Harris.

For sure.

Yang is the best candidate the Dems could have in 2024, to be frank.

He literally got 1% in the primary,

And jumped from running for President to the mayor of NYC. Both aren't well suited for runs from a candidate who has no previous governmental positions.

It's not really common for mayor of NYC to be an actually viable presidential candidate - though I'm not entirely sure why. Guiliani is the only NYC mayor over the past 20-30 years that I can recall actually had a good chance of being nominated as nominee of his party. (No, Bloomberg '20 doesn't count)

[Mr. Morden]

Guiliani is the only NYC mayor over the past 20-30 years that I can recall actually had a good chance of being nominated as nominee of his party. (No, Bloomberg 16 doesn't count)

I don't know.  I think Bloomberg spent so much money on his 2020 presidential campaign that the ads leaked back in time, and gave him a remote chance of being elected president four years earlier.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guiliani is the only NYC mayor over the past 20-30 years that I can recall actually had a good chance of being nominated as nominee of his party. (No, Bloomberg 16 doesn't count)

I don't know.  I think Bloomberg spent so much money on his 2020 presidential campaign that the ads leaked back in time, and gave him a remote chance of being elected president four years earlier.

Thanks for catching the typo, and with a funny reply. I have since edited.

[omar04]

It's a shame but he'd lose, he'd be a much better candidate than Harris.

For sure.

Yang is the best candidate the Dems could have in 2024, to be frank.

He literally got 1% in the primary,

And jumped from running for President to the mayor of NYC. Both aren't well suited for runs from a candidate who has no previous governmental positions.

It's not really common for mayor of NYC to be an actually viable presidential candidate - though I'm not entirely sure why. Guiliani is the only NYC mayor over the past 20-30 years that I can recall actually had a good chance of being nominated as nominee of his party. (No, Bloomberg '20 doesn't count)

NYC mayors are polarizing; De Blasio, Bloomberg, and Giuliani who ran on a 'tough on crime' platform and narrowly won because of the Crown Heights riot which got him a lot of Jewish voters. He was lucky in that crime rates fell hard on a national (and local) level and his big boost came from his popular 9/11 response (he was under water in the approval polls until that made him 'America's mayor'). Giulani's personal scandals and social views left him with his 9/11 response to lean on, hardly enough to make him a viable candidate come campaign season. See this on his presidential run: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jan/30/usa.rudygiuliani

[John Dule]

If this is as likely as you say it is, I really hope Biden indeed runs for re-election. This would possibly be worse than Clinton vs. Sanders in 2016.

Do we really want an 82 year old in poor health running again? I know he’s probably the most electable candidate the Dems have, but he probably ain’t getting any fitter (physically or mentally).

Granted, if he runs against a 78 year old Trump it won’t be as bad, but even Trump is way fitter than Biden.

Trump is higher-energy but he also takes much poorer care of himself.

You are ignoring the elephant in the room

When we say "WWC'' we typically refer to white middle aged guys. Those who historically were part of unions. Manufacturing, construction, mining and trucking. Not college educated and live in small towns, rural areas and maybe older suburbs. Live in places like Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

They voted for folks like Dukakis, Bill Clinton and Al Gore. And yes, several voted for Obama

These folks are gone. Boom, gone. That's it.

They have been leaving the Democratic Party for years. 2016 was the last straw

I doubt there exists a Democrat who could win them back, we are too polorized. And if HE did exist, I very much doubt he could win the primary. Maybe Sherrod Brown?

Joe Biden was the best bet Democrats had. He is a old white guy whose base was historically labor. He's from Scranton! Didn't make a dent

Back too my point. Do you know what these guys have in common? They are PREJUDICE

They are not going to vote for a women. Or an Asian or a Muslim or a Hispanic. Barack Obama did well because a black man is ok, but it was post recession and he is from the midwest. Obama in 2016 would not do as well as Obama 2012.

Could Andrew Yang win the midwest? Sure, if he brings out youth and minorities. And third parties largly back him. That's how Joe Biden won.

But the idea he is going to do better with WWC is laughable. Neither he nor Harris will win by WWC. If Biden or Hillary couldn't, they sure in hell can't

In case you're wondering, this is the point at which you lost me. Sorry, but the notion that being black is somehow "ok" through the lens of American racism-- but a woman or an Asian couldn't possibly overcome that prejudice-- is completely absurd.

[Sestak]

For the umpteenth time, Harris is most likely not going to be in a position to "get primaried" in 2024. I don't know why this board has such a fixation on this.

[John Dule]

No it isn’t. ADOS Black folks are automatically accepted as “American” in ways that Latinos, East Asians, and South Asians generally are not.

No, they are not. Anyone who is racist enough to not vote for an Asian person is certainly racist enough to not vote for a black person.

[Motorcity]

No it isn’t. ADOS Black folks are automatically accepted as “American” in ways that Latinos, East Asians, and South Asians generally are not.

No, they are not. Anyone who is racist enough to not vote for an Asian person is certainly racist enough to not vote for a black person.

Actually, this isn't true

I lived and worked in a small southern town.

I knew lots of white people who were racist. Said the n word and everything horrible about "mexicans taking jobs" "chinaman" and "Arabs". And of course inner city black people

But the town was 40% black and they had no problem with them. As long as they were from the same town, dressed the same, talked the same, etc there was no issues. They went to bar and drank together and hung out outside the gas station

https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/

This article gave a good response about how MAGA feels about minorities

I'm Muslim and Arab, but I grew up in Tennessee. Overall, I was accepted by the same people who talked sh**t about Muslims "blowing themselves" up. But I have a southern accent and wear a jeans/tshirt and drive a truck.

So yes, midwest people (who are slightly less prejudiced than southerns) could vote for Obama. But Yang is too much of a stretch

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

For the umpteenth time, Harris is most likely not going to be in a position to "get primaried" in 2024. I don't know why this board has such a fixation on this.

Actually I think this board is discounting it too much. If Biden doesn't run it will be an OPEN primary and tbh I don't expect Biden to endorse anyone, even Harris. Many democrats, not just anti-establishment progressives, but even mainstream democrats, will run. I'm expecting the 2024 primary to be similar to the 2020 primary, with Harris in the role of Biden.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For the umpteenth time, Harris is most likely not going to be in a position to "get primaried" in 2024. I don't know why this board has such a fixation on this.

Actually I think this board is discounting it too much. If Biden doesn't run it will be an OPEN primary and tbh I don't expect Biden to endorse anyone, even Harris. Many democrats, not just anti-establishment progressives, but even mainstream democrats, will run. I'm expecting the 2024 primary to be similar to the 2020 primary, with Harris in the role of Biden.

If Biden doesn't run, the establishment is likely to consolidate around Harris as long as they don't perceive the administration to have been a dumpster fire. They will not want a repeat of the 29-candidate field, and even if the president doesn't endorse Harris, she is likely to be perceived as his heir by a primary base that approves of him.

I think it will look more like 2016, if not 2000 (i.e. there is room for 1-2 credible challengers, but Harris will be the favourite to start with). Why would she not get the Al Gore/HRC treatment?

[junior chįmp]

Why is everyone so sure Biden wont be the nominee in 2024? His father lived till 86 and his mother lived till 92. Chances are he'll serve out both terms if re-elected

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Netanyahu wins with Yang, Harris, or Trump.

[NewYorkExpress]

Assuming Biden isn't running for reelection, I'd be willing to bet any amount of money that one of AOC/Tlaib/Pressley jumps in.

[Mister Mets]

Interesting theory.

I don't see it.

He'll be quite busy as a new mayor. Running for President can also hurt his approval ratings.

Harris starts out pretty well with the establishment and African-American voters.

Harris won't be much better for heartland voters, though I'm not sure Yang can appeal to them. He might be able to excite younger activists, though and exemplifies change in a way that someone who was elected DA in 2003 would not.

[Redban]

FYI -- Yang has apparently collapsed in his mayoral run. He is running 4th place, behind Adams, Garcia, & Wiley.

Yang is pushing 9.6%. Adams at the top has over 20%

[Skill and Chance]

FYI -- Yang has apparently collapsed in his mayoral run. He is running 4th place, behind Adams, Garcia, & Wiley.

Yang is pushing 9.6%. Adams at the top has over 20%

Total disappointment.  The guy had innovative ideas, but he got way out ahead of his skis.  Yang really needed to either commit to politics for the long haul and start at the state legislative/city council level or wait and build a national name in business and become 100X wealthier so he could self-fund a saturation level campaign.

[Minnesota Mike]

If this is as likely as you say it is, I really hope Biden indeed runs for re-election. This would possibly be worse than Clinton vs. Sanders in 2016.

Do we really want an 82 year old in poor health running again? I know he’s probably the most electable candidate the Dems have, but he probably ain’t getting any fitter (physically or mentally).

Granted, if he runs against a 78 year old Trump it won’t be as bad, but even Trump is way fitter than Biden.

Since when is Biden in poor health? IMHO he is in great health considering his age. How many 78 year olds  can go on bike rides like Biden? He's not 50 anymore but he doesn't have to be. Last time I checked being president did not involve a pushup contest.

BTW Biden is 95% likely to run in 2024 but if he doesn't there will be a full field of contenders.

[PSOL]

No, I’m getting the vibe that Pete Buttigieg will primary her.

[TDAS04]

I think and hope Biden seeks reelection, especially if his health is decent.  In the event he doesn’t, a Kamala Harris vs Elizabeth Warren should be plausible.  Vice Presidents usually get the nomination in the end, but there’s usually opposition, even with sitting VPs (Gore vs Bradley in 2000, Bush vs Dole vs others in in 1988, etc.).  Since Harris is seen as establishment, a primary challenge from the left would be most likely.

God I hope Biden seeks reelection.

[izixs]

Yang does have a few quality ideas. However in most other areas he's either excessively naive or actually kinda terrible. And is especially poorly positioned if he were to challenge either Biden or Harris in 2024 as an 'outsider' candidate or a 'left alternative'. If he tries the outsider narrative, it will actually hurt the branding of being an outsider in general due to his incoherantness on some things and occasional absurdly single minded devotions. Such nonsense might fly with Republicans, but Democrats are very different sorts of folks and actually tend to have an aversion to such things. If he runs as a left alternative, expect and actual left alternative to run as well and to actually be a standard bearer of the movement while Yang and any other pretender gets tossed by the wayside like they did in 2020.

[Redban]

It’s official. Yang lost the mayoral election. He conceded after the early results came in last night.

https://nypost.com/2021/06/22/adams-has-slim-lead-over-garcia-could-take-weeks-to-name-winner/

Andrew Yang was a more distant fourth at just 11.65 percent and 82,696 votes and conceded the race shortly before 11 p.m.

“I am not going to be the next mayor of New York City, based upon the numbers that have come in,” Yang told his supporters.