How has the electorate changed since the 2008 election?

[EJ24]

?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Depends on the issue

[Ferguson97]

The public has moved significantly to the left in both social and economic terms.

In 2008, it would have been completely unthinkable for a presidential candidate to openly and passionately defend LGBT rights.

In 2008, it would have been completely unthinkable for a president to support a progressive economic bill costing trillions of dollars.

[pbrower2a]

Obama got plenty of conservative votes in 2008 on the economic failure staring America down like a hungry tiger. After the economy was no longer a menace many went back to their old conservative ways.

The demographics of the American electorate have changed greatly. America used to have far more people born between 1925 and 1980 who were about 55 more R than D. Such people ranged in age from 28 to 83, which is a huge range.  Voters from that range have been dying off, and the younger voters are about 20% more D than R have replaced them. For most voters under 40, the GOP has little to offer but the promise of pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die in return for poverty and personal debt. That is a raw deal.  Republicans were riding the strength of the Religious Right, which has been shrinking as about 1.5% of the electorate, mostly among people over 55, die off.

[Vosem]

Well, per the exit poll, voters born between 1978 and 1990 shifted from D+34 for Obama to D+5 for Biden, which might be the single most striking shift. Here are shifts by demographic groups:

Ideologies 2008: Liberal 22%, Moderates 44%, Conservatives 34%
Ideologies 2020: Liberals 24%, Moderates 38%, Conservatives 38%
more polarized, and slightly to the self-identified *right*

Parties 2008: Democrats 39%, Independents 29%, Republicans 32%
Parties 2020: Democrats 37%, Independents 26%, Republicans 36%
small movement of right-wing independents into the GOP

Genders 2008: Men 47%, Women 53%
Genders 2020: Men 48%, Women 52%
men are now slightly likelier to vote

Marital statuses 2008: Married 66%, Non-married 34%
Marital statuses 2020: Married 56%, Non-married 44%
actually a big shift -- marriage has become meaningfully less common

Races 2008: Whites 74%, Blacks 13%, Asians 2%, Others 2%, Hispanics 9%
Races 2020: Whites 67%, Blacks 13%, Asians 4%, Others 4%, Latino 13%
whites down, blacks steady, Asians and Hispanics/Latino way up
sorry BRTD Edison Research thinks Hispanic is a race

Religions 2008: Protestants 54%, Catholics 27%, Jews 2%, Others 6%, Nones 12%
Religions 2020: Protestants and other Christians 43%, Catholics 25%, Jews 2%, Others 8%, Nones 22%
huge shift from Protestants -- now phrased slightly broader -- to nones

disappointingly they asked about frequency of religious attendance in 2008, but not 2020. Would've been interesting to know if there is decline across the board or greater polarization now.

Born-again 2008: Born-again 26%, Not born-again 74%
Born-again 2020: Born-again 28%, Not born-again 72%
evangelical Christianity is growing

Sexual orientation 2008: LGB 4%, Heterosexual 96%
Sexual orientation 2020: LGB 7%, Heterosexual 93%
so is the gay agenda

Education 2008: Less than HS 4%, HS 20%, Some college 31%, College 28%, Postgrad 17%
Education 2020: High school or less 19%, Some college 23%, Associate's 16%, Bachelor's 27%, Postgrad 15%
interestingly there's depolarization here. rates of people with just a high-school degree or less are down (these were probably very old in 2008), but rates of people with a college degree or postgraduate are also down (probably because turnout in 2020 was higher than 2008)

Union 2008: Union households 21%, non-union 79%
Union 2020: Union households 20%, non-union 80%
not a big shift here, decline in union membership has maybe bottomed out

Veterans 2008: Veterans 15%, Non-veterans 85%
Veterans 2020: Veterans 15%, Non-veterans 85%
surprised at this one -- I would've thought veterans were older and their share of the electorate is declining. Somehow it isn't?

Regions 2008: Northeast 21%, Midwest 24%, South 32%, West 23%
Regions 2020: East 20%, Midwest 23%, South 35%, West 22%
the South's share of the electorate has grown at the expense of everyone else

Density identification 2008: Urban 30%, Suburban 49%, Rural 21%
Density identification 2020: Urban 29%, Suburban 51%, Rural 19%
a tad more suburban now

~~~~

A lot of these seem to reflect that 2008 was a Democratic landslide, and maybe conservative turnout was depressed, but 2020 was a really high-turnout year, so a lot of these have moved toward the population average (like on gender and education).

The biggest shift seems to be the decline in married people among the electorate, which has been way larger than I anticipated.

[Vosem]

And since I'm in this deep I'll go demographic-by-demographic.

Americans 2008: 53-46 Obama
Americans 2020: 52-47 Biden (+2 R)
Americans have shifted a little bit towards the Republican Party since 2008, but there hasn't been a huge total swing. What categories have shifted, though?

Liberals 2008: 89-10 Obama
Liberals 2020: 89-10 Biden (no change)
This is a small left trend, but basically Trump and McCain were equally appealing to Republican-voting liberals, I guess

Moderates 2008: 60-39 Obama
Moderates 2020: 64-34 Biden (+9 D)
Self-identified moderates have shifted hard D since 2008 -- this is an 11-point trend!

Conservatives 2008: 78-20 McCain
Conservatives 2020: 85-14 Trump (+13 R)
But self-identified conservatives have moved even harder towards the Republicans

Democrats 2008: 89-10 Obama
Democrats 2020: 94-5 Biden (+10 D)
As Conservadems have moved away from Democratic identification, Biden improved big with this group

Republicans 2008: 90-9 McCain
Republicans 2020: 94-6 Trump (+7 R)
Likewise, there are now fewer ancestral liberal Republicans who might vote Democratic in a presidential election (...even though the same number of liberals vote R, they don't identify R, I guess)

Independents 2008: 52-44 Obama
Independents 2020: 54-42 Biden (+4 D)
Independents, like moderates, have gotten more D (though this is probably right-wing independents becoming likelier to call themselves Republicans)

Men 2008: 49-48 Obama
Men 2020: 53-45 Trump (+9 R)
Trump improved *bigly* with men. Obama won them outright by a point, but Trump won them by 8 points. There's probably a county somewhere in the Midwest that describes

Women 2008: 56-43 Obama
Women 2020: 57-42 Biden (+2 D)
Women have gotten more Democratic -- and the total gender gap is much bigger now -- but not by as much. The gender gap, so far, is more men moving rightwards

Married people 2008: 52-47 McCain
Married people 2020: 53-45 Trump (+3 R)
An unexpectedly small shift here, I'll be honest

Unmarried people 2008: 65-33 Obama
Unmarried people 2020: 58-40 Biden (+14 R)
Trump does much better with people who are not married than McCain did. (This is our first fun Simpson's paradox example -- how come both married and unmarried Americans moved more Republican than total Americans? This is because the Democratic group, unmarried Americans, became a bigger fraction of the whole. This theme repeats)

Whites 2008: 55-43 McCain
Whites 2020: 57-41 Trump (+4 R)
Whites have gotten a bit more Republican, but not by very much more than America as a whole. (This hides that racially polarized voting spiked during Obama's years in office, then declined under Trump back to where it had been)

Blacks 2008: 95-4 Obama
Blacks 2020: 87-12 Biden (+16 R)
...yeah, obviously nobody's going to match Obama 2008 with blacks, but they're among the most-Republican-shifted groups in this set, which I didn't expect

Asians 2008: 62-35 Obama
Asians 2020: 63-36 Biden (no change)
Asians haven't shifted, which is a small D trend

Other races 2008: 66-31 Obama
Other races 2020: 55-41 Biden (+21 R)
I think this one is people who understood the question poorly, or some Hispanics who don't like the phrases Hispanic/Latino but also don't feel themselves white. This is the single group with which Trump improved the most, though it is still safely D overall

Hispanics 2008: 67-31 Obama
Latinos 2020: 65-33 Biden (+4 R)
Less of a swing here than you might've expected, though note that Hispanics/Latinos swung way left in 2012/2016, so Trump had to make up a lot of ground here.

Protestants 2008: 54-45 McCain
Protestants 2020: 60-39 Trump (+12 R)
Trump did way better with Protestants; presumably this reflects both unchurched people being likelier to identify as "none" and declining religiosity in the black community

Catholics 2008: 54-45 Obama
Catholics 2020: 52-47 Biden (+4 R)
Not a big shift among Catholics, though in its own way this is probably good for the GOP since Catholics in the US are now way more Latino

Jews 2008: 78-21 Obama
Jews 2020: 76-22 Biden (+3 R)
No large change in sentiment among Jews, though I think non-Orthodox Jews have swung somewhat left compared to 2008 and this is masked by growing Orthodox numbers. Could be wrong, though

Other religions 2008: 73-22 Obama
Other religions 2020: 69-29 Biden (+11 R)
With the War on Terror fading into the rearview mirror, Trump did better with Muslims than any Republican in a generation. He was also among the first Republicans to do Hindu-specific outreach, though I'm less sure that was successful

“None” religion 2008: 75-23 Obama
“None” religion 2020: 65-31 Biden (+18 R)
Republicans in 2020 are perceived as being way less influenced by the religious right; "nones" are now much likelier to vote Republican

Born-again 2008: 74-24 McCain
Born-again 2020: 76-24 Trump (+2 R)
This is true even though evangelicals have gotten a tad more Republican and are now a bigger fraction of the electorate

Not born-again 2008: 62-36 Obama
Not born-again 2020: 62-36 Biden (no change)
Fun fact: the last time a Republican improved with this group was the Bush-2000 campaign. Note the Simpson's Paradox again (born-again Americans and not-born-again Americans both swung less than Americans total, because born-again are now more common)

Gays 2008: 70-27 Obama
Gays 2020: 67-30 Biden (+6 R)
This is "LGB". With the gay marriage fight fading in the rearview mirror, LGB Americans are likelier to vote GOP

Straights 2008: 53-45 Obama
Straights 2020: 51-48 Biden (+5 R)
Straights have improved too. Both groups swung towards Republicans more than Americans as a whole did -- because, as a country, we're now gayer

High school or less 2008: 54-44 Obama
High school or less 2020: 54-46 Trump (+18 R)
"We love the poorly educated!" One of the main political stories of the last decade. It was not exaggerated.

Some college 2008: 51-47 Obama
Some college 2020: 49-48 Biden (+3 R)
The 2020 survey disassociated "associate's degree" from "some college", but they were the same category in 2008. Anyway, no big shift here

College graduate 2008: 50-48 Obama
College graduate 2020: 51-47 Biden (+2 D)
Keep in mind America shifted right, so this is actually a sizable leftward trend. But the total shift in margin is small.

Postgraduate 2008: 58-40 Obama
Postgraduate 2020: 62-37 Biden (+5 D)
A more impressive shift here, though

Union households 2008: 59-39 Obama
Union households 2020: 56-40 Biden (+4 R)
Union-members got a bit more Republican

Non-union households 2008: 51-47 Obama
Non-union households 2020: 50-49 Biden (+3 R)
But not very different from non-union households. Unions weren't a big driver of political events in the last decade

Veterans 2008: 54-44 McCain
Veterans 2020: 54-44 Trump (no change)
Veterans have trended a bit left -- note that Americans as a whole swung right, so this is a left-ward trend. McCain had more unique appeal for this demographic than Trump did

Non-veterans 2008: 54-44 Obama
Non-veterans 2020: 53-45 Biden (+2 R)
"Non-veterans" pretty much just swung the same as ordinary Americans

Northeast 2008: 59-40 Obama
East 2008: 58-40 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here, except the random region renaming without redrawing boundaries

Midwest 2008: 54-44 Obama
Midwest 2020: 51-47 Trump (+14 R)
Obama's 2008 campaign was the strongest Democrat in many Midwestern states since 1964. Trump, too, has a special appeal to the region, which swung pretty hard Republican

South 2008: 54-45 McCain
South 2020: 53-46 Trump (+2 D)
The South, gradually becoming less white, is trending Democratic

West 2008: 57-40 Obama
West 2020: 57-41 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here

Urban 2008: 63-35 Obama
Urban 2020: 60-38 Biden (+5 R)
Trump was more appealing to cities than McCain. Note that, contrary to what you may think, "urban" as a category was a more common answer in 2008 than 2020

Suburban 2008: 50-48 Obama
Suburban 2020: 50-48 Biden (no change)
Suburbs grew as a share of the electorate, and trended somewhat Democratic

Rural 2008: 53-45 McCain
Rural 2020: 57-42 Trump (+7 R)
Rural areas became more Republican

[Person Man]

And since I'm in this deep I'll go demographic-by-demographic.

Americans 2008: 53-46 Obama
Americans 2020: 52-47 Biden (+2 R)
Americans have shifted a little bit towards the Republican Party since 2008, but there hasn't been a huge total swing. What categories have shifted, though?

Liberals 2008: 89-10 Obama
Liberals 2020: 89-10 Biden (no change)
This is a small left trend, but basically Trump and McCain were equally appealing to Republican-voting liberals, I guess

Moderates 2008: 60-39 Obama
Moderates 2020: 64-34 Biden (+9 D)
Self-identified moderates have shifted hard D since 2008 -- this is an 11-point trend!

Conservatives 2008: 78-20 McCain
Conservatives 2020: 85-14 Trump (+13 R)
But self-identified conservatives have moved even harder towards the Republicans

Democrats 2008: 89-10 Obama
Democrats 2020: 94-5 Biden (+10 D)
As Conservadems have moved away from Democratic identification, Biden improved big with this group

Republicans 2008: 90-9 McCain
Republicans 2020: 94-6 Trump (+7 R)
Likewise, there are now fewer ancestral liberal Republicans who might vote Democratic in a presidential election (...even though the same number of liberals vote R, they don't identify R, I guess)

Independents 2008: 52-44 Obama
Independents 2020: 54-42 Biden (+4 D)
Independents, like moderates, have gotten more D (though this is probably right-wing independents becoming likelier to call themselves Republicans)

Men 2008: 49-48 Obama
Men 2020: 53-45 Trump (+9 R)
Trump improved *bigly* with men. Obama won them outright by a point, but Trump won them by 8 points. There's probably a county somewhere in the Midwest that describes

Women 2008: 56-43 Obama
Women 2020: 57-42 Biden (+2 D)
Women have gotten more Democratic -- and the total gender gap is much bigger now -- but not by as much. The gender gap, so far, is more men moving rightwards

Married people 2008: 52-47 McCain
Married people 2020: 53-45 Trump (+3 R)
An unexpectedly small shift here, I'll be honest

Unmarried people 2008: 65-33 Obama
Unmarried people 2020: 58-40 Biden (+14 R)
Trump does much better with people who are not married than McCain did. (This is our first fun Simpson's paradox example -- how come both married and unmarried Americans moved more Republican than total Americans? This is because the Democratic group, unmarried Americans, became a bigger fraction of the whole. This theme repeats)

Whites 2008: 55-43 McCain
Whites 2020: 57-41 Trump (+4 R)
Whites have gotten a bit more Republican, but not by very much more than America as a whole. (This hides that racially polarized voting spiked during Obama's years in office, then declined under Trump back to where it had been)

Blacks 2008: 95-4 Obama
Blacks 2020: 87-12 Biden (+16 R)
...yeah, obviously nobody's going to match Obama 2008 with blacks, but they're among the most-Republican-shifted groups in this set, which I didn't expect

Asians 2008: 62-35 Obama
Asians 2020: 63-36 Biden (no change)
Asians haven't shifted, which is a small D trend

Other races 2008: 66-31 Obama
Other races 2020: 55-41 Biden (+21 R)
I think this one is people who understood the question poorly, or some Hispanics who don't like the phrases Hispanic/Latino but also don't feel themselves white. This is the single group with which Trump improved the most, though it is still safely D overall

Hispanics 2008: 67-31 Obama
Latinos 2020: 65-33 Biden (+4 R)
Less of a swing here than you might've expected, though note that Hispanics/Latinos swung way left in 2012/2016, so Trump had to make up a lot of ground here.

Protestants 2008: 54-45 McCain
Protestants 2020: 60-39 Trump (+12 R)
Trump did way better with Protestants; presumably this reflects both unchurched people being likelier to identify as "none" and declining religiosity in the black community

Catholics 2008: 54-45 Obama
Catholics 2020: 52-47 Biden (+4 R)
Not a big shift among Catholics, though in its own way this is probably good for the GOP since Catholics in the US are now way more Latino

Jews 2008: 78-21 Obama
Jews 2020: 76-22 Biden (+3 R)
No large change in sentiment among Jews, though I think non-Orthodox Jews have swung somewhat left compared to 2008 and this is masked by growing Orthodox numbers. Could be wrong, though

Other religions 2008: 73-22 Obama
Other religions 2020: 69-29 Biden (+11 R)
With the War on Terror fading into the rearview mirror, Trump did better with Muslims than any Republican in a generation. He was also among the first Republicans to do Hindu-specific outreach, though I'm less sure that was successful

“None” religion 2008: 75-23 Obama
“None” religion 2020: 65-31 Biden (+18 R)
Republicans in 2020 are perceived as being way less influenced by the religious right; "nones" are now much likelier to vote Republican

Born-again 2008: 74-24 McCain
Born-again 2020: 76-24 Trump (+2 R)
This is true even though evangelicals have gotten a tad more Republican and are now a bigger fraction of the electorate

Not born-again 2008: 62-36 Obama
Not born-again 2020: 62-36 Biden (no change)
Fun fact: the last time a Republican improved with this group was the Bush-2000 campaign. Note the Simpson's Paradox again (born-again Americans and not-born-again Americans both swung less than Americans total, because born-again are now more common)

Gays 2008: 70-27 Obama
Gays 2020: 67-30 Biden (+6 R)
This is "LGB". With the gay marriage fight fading in the rearview mirror, LGB Americans are likelier to vote GOP

Straights 2008: 53-45 Obama
Straights 2020: 51-48 Biden (+5 R)
Straights have improved too. Both groups swung towards Republicans more than Americans as a whole did -- because, as a country, we're now gayer

High school or less 2008: 54-44 Obama
High school or less 2020: 54-46 Trump (+18 R)
"We love the poorly educated!" One of the main political stories of the last decade. It was not exaggerated.

Some college 2008: 51-47 Obama
Some college 2020: 49-48 Biden (+3 R)
The 2020 survey disassociated "associate's degree" from "some college", but they were the same category in 2008. Anyway, no big shift here

College graduate 2008: 50-48 Obama
College graduate 2020: 51-47 Biden (+2 D)
Keep in mind America shifted right, so this is actually a sizable leftward trend. But the total shift in margin is small.

Postgraduate 2008: 58-40 Obama
Postgraduate 2020: 62-37 Biden (+5 D)
A more impressive shift here, though

Union households 2008: 59-39 Obama
Union households 2020: 56-40 Biden (+4 R)
Union-members got a bit more Republican

Non-union households 2008: 51-47 Obama
Non-union households 2020: 50-49 Biden (+3 R)
But not very different from non-union households. Unions weren't a big driver of political events in the last decade

Veterans 2008: 54-44 McCain
Veterans 2020: 54-44 Trump (no change)
Veterans have trended a bit left -- note that Americans as a whole swung right, so this is a left-ward trend. McCain had more unique appeal for this demographic than Trump did

Non-veterans 2008: 54-44 Obama
Non-veterans 2020: 53-45 Biden (+2 R)
"Non-veterans" pretty much just swung the same as ordinary Americans

Northeast 2008: 59-40 Obama
East 2008: 58-40 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here, except the random region renaming without redrawing boundaries

Midwest 2008: 54-44 Obama
Midwest 2020: 51-47 Trump (+14 R)
Obama's 2008 campaign was the strongest Democrat in many Midwestern states since 1964. Trump, too, has a special appeal to the region, which swung pretty hard Republican

South 2008: 54-45 McCain
South 2020: 53-46 Trump (+2 D)
The South, gradually becoming less white, is trending Democratic

West 2008: 57-40 Obama
West 2020: 57-41 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here

Urban 2008: 63-35 Obama
Urban 2020: 60-38 Biden (+5 R)
Trump was more appealing to cities than McCain. Note that, contrary to what you may think, "urban" as a category was a more common answer in 2008 than 2020

Suburban 2008: 50-48 Obama
Suburban 2020: 50-48 Biden (no change)
Suburbs grew as a share of the electorate, and trended somewhat Democratic

Rural 2008: 53-45 McCain
Rural 2020: 57-42 Trump (+7 R)
Rural areas became more Republican

So basically its two things:

1) Democrats are becoming unpopular
or
2) Trump brought in a lot of "non-traditional" Republicans. That is, people who were conservative on the issues but may not have voted because they didn't directly benefit from the Republican platform.

I could see both being true, which, in a vacuum, would would benefit Republicans. This is how 2012 and 2004 felt, too. That the incumbent party was simply becoming more popular despite how fatigued and less of a fit they were becoming to the electorate. What we should then reasonably expect to see is Democrats finding a way for voters to give them a second chance (1992, 1976), boost turnout by doubling down (2008,1980), or for them to try something completely different (2016).

2020 was weird a election and I could have seen any other Republican winning handily but maybe not as much as some would expect.

[Non Swing Voter]

The leading candidate for the Republican nomination for Governor in California is a transgender female.    The electorate is profoundly to the left of where it was 13 years ago. 

[Chips]

And since I'm in this deep I'll go demographic-by-demographic.

Americans 2008: 53-46 Obama
Americans 2020: 52-47 Biden (+2 R)
Americans have shifted a little bit towards the Republican Party since 2008, but there hasn't been a huge total swing. What categories have shifted, though?

Liberals 2008: 89-10 Obama
Liberals 2020: 89-10 Biden (no change)
This is a small left trend, but basically Trump and McCain were equally appealing to Republican-voting liberals, I guess

Moderates 2008: 60-39 Obama
Moderates 2020: 64-34 Biden (+9 D)
Self-identified moderates have shifted hard D since 2008 -- this is an 11-point trend!

Conservatives 2008: 78-20 McCain
Conservatives 2020: 85-14 Trump (+13 R)
But self-identified conservatives have moved even harder towards the Republicans

Democrats 2008: 89-10 Obama
Democrats 2020: 94-5 Biden (+10 D)
As Conservadems have moved away from Democratic identification, Biden improved big with this group

Republicans 2008: 90-9 McCain
Republicans 2020: 94-6 Trump (+7 R)
Likewise, there are now fewer ancestral liberal Republicans who might vote Democratic in a presidential election (...even though the same number of liberals vote R, they don't identify R, I guess)

Independents 2008: 52-44 Obama
Independents 2020: 54-42 Biden (+4 D)
Independents, like moderates, have gotten more D (though this is probably right-wing independents becoming likelier to call themselves Republicans)

Men 2008: 49-48 Obama
Men 2020: 53-45 Trump (+9 R)
Trump improved *bigly* with men. Obama won them outright by a point, but Trump won them by 8 points. There's probably a county somewhere in the Midwest that describes

Women 2008: 56-43 Obama
Women 2020: 57-42 Biden (+2 D)
Women have gotten more Democratic -- and the total gender gap is much bigger now -- but not by as much. The gender gap, so far, is more men moving rightwards

Married people 2008: 52-47 McCain
Married people 2020: 53-45 Trump (+3 R)
An unexpectedly small shift here, I'll be honest

Unmarried people 2008: 65-33 Obama
Unmarried people 2020: 58-40 Biden (+14 R)
Trump does much better with people who are not married than McCain did. (This is our first fun Simpson's paradox example -- how come both married and unmarried Americans moved more Republican than total Americans? This is because the Democratic group, unmarried Americans, became a bigger fraction of the whole. This theme repeats)

Whites 2008: 55-43 McCain
Whites 2020: 57-41 Trump (+4 R)
Whites have gotten a bit more Republican, but not by very much more than America as a whole. (This hides that racially polarized voting spiked during Obama's years in office, then declined under Trump back to where it had been)

Blacks 2008: 95-4 Obama
Blacks 2020: 87-12 Biden (+16 R)
...yeah, obviously nobody's going to match Obama 2008 with blacks, but they're among the most-Republican-shifted groups in this set, which I didn't expect

Asians 2008: 62-35 Obama
Asians 2020: 63-36 Biden (no change)
Asians haven't shifted, which is a small D trend

Other races 2008: 66-31 Obama
Other races 2020: 55-41 Biden (+21 R)
I think this one is people who understood the question poorly, or some Hispanics who don't like the phrases Hispanic/Latino but also don't feel themselves white. This is the single group with which Trump improved the most, though it is still safely D overall

Hispanics 2008: 67-31 Obama
Latinos 2020: 65-33 Biden (+4 R)
Less of a swing here than you might've expected, though note that Hispanics/Latinos swung way left in 2012/2016, so Trump had to make up a lot of ground here.

Protestants 2008: 54-45 McCain
Protestants 2020: 60-39 Trump (+12 R)
Trump did way better with Protestants; presumably this reflects both unchurched people being likelier to identify as "none" and declining religiosity in the black community

Catholics 2008: 54-45 Obama
Catholics 2020: 52-47 Biden (+4 R)
Not a big shift among Catholics, though in its own way this is probably good for the GOP since Catholics in the US are now way more Latino

Jews 2008: 78-21 Obama
Jews 2020: 76-22 Biden (+3 R)
No large change in sentiment among Jews, though I think non-Orthodox Jews have swung somewhat left compared to 2008 and this is masked by growing Orthodox numbers. Could be wrong, though

Other religions 2008: 73-22 Obama
Other religions 2020: 69-29 Biden (+11 R)
With the War on Terror fading into the rearview mirror, Trump did better with Muslims than any Republican in a generation. He was also among the first Republicans to do Hindu-specific outreach, though I'm less sure that was successful

“None” religion 2008: 75-23 Obama
“None” religion 2020: 65-31 Biden (+18 R)
Republicans in 2020 are perceived as being way less influenced by the religious right; "nones" are now much likelier to vote Republican

Born-again 2008: 74-24 McCain
Born-again 2020: 76-24 Trump (+2 R)
This is true even though evangelicals have gotten a tad more Republican and are now a bigger fraction of the electorate

Not born-again 2008: 62-36 Obama
Not born-again 2020: 62-36 Biden (no change)
Fun fact: the last time a Republican improved with this group was the Bush-2000 campaign. Note the Simpson's Paradox again (born-again Americans and not-born-again Americans both swung less than Americans total, because born-again are now more common)

Gays 2008: 70-27 Obama
Gays 2020: 67-30 Biden (+6 R)
This is "LGB". With the gay marriage fight fading in the rearview mirror, LGB Americans are likelier to vote GOP

Straights 2008: 53-45 Obama
Straights 2020: 51-48 Biden (+5 R)
Straights have improved too. Both groups swung towards Republicans more than Americans as a whole did -- because, as a country, we're now gayer

High school or less 2008: 54-44 Obama
High school or less 2020: 54-46 Trump (+18 R)
"We love the poorly educated!" One of the main political stories of the last decade. It was not exaggerated.

Some college 2008: 51-47 Obama
Some college 2020: 49-48 Biden (+3 R)
The 2020 survey disassociated "associate's degree" from "some college", but they were the same category in 2008. Anyway, no big shift here

College graduate 2008: 50-48 Obama
College graduate 2020: 51-47 Biden (+2 D)
Keep in mind America shifted right, so this is actually a sizable leftward trend. But the total shift in margin is small.

Postgraduate 2008: 58-40 Obama
Postgraduate 2020: 62-37 Biden (+5 D)
A more impressive shift here, though

Union households 2008: 59-39 Obama
Union households 2020: 56-40 Biden (+4 R)
Union-members got a bit more Republican

Non-union households 2008: 51-47 Obama
Non-union households 2020: 50-49 Biden (+3 R)
But not very different from non-union households. Unions weren't a big driver of political events in the last decade

Veterans 2008: 54-44 McCain
Veterans 2020: 54-44 Trump (no change)
Veterans have trended a bit left -- note that Americans as a whole swung right, so this is a left-ward trend. McCain had more unique appeal for this demographic than Trump did

Non-veterans 2008: 54-44 Obama
Non-veterans 2020: 53-45 Biden (+2 R)
"Non-veterans" pretty much just swung the same as ordinary Americans

Northeast 2008: 59-40 Obama
East 2008: 58-40 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here, except the random region renaming without redrawing boundaries

Midwest 2008: 54-44 Obama
Midwest 2020: 51-47 Trump (+14 R)
Obama's 2008 campaign was the strongest Democrat in many Midwestern states since 1964. Trump, too, has a special appeal to the region, which swung pretty hard Republican

South 2008: 54-45 McCain
South 2020: 53-46 Trump (+2 D)
The South, gradually becoming less white, is trending Democratic

West 2008: 57-40 Obama
West 2020: 57-41 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here

Urban 2008: 63-35 Obama
Urban 2020: 60-38 Biden (+5 R)
Trump was more appealing to cities than McCain. Note that, contrary to what you may think, "urban" as a category was a more common answer in 2008 than 2020

Suburban 2008: 50-48 Obama
Suburban 2020: 50-48 Biden (no change)
Suburbs grew as a share of the electorate, and trended somewhat Democratic

Rural 2008: 53-45 McCain
Rural 2020: 57-42 Trump (+7 R)
Rural areas became more Republican

Interesting data.

[Person Man]

And since I'm in this deep I'll go demographic-by-demographic.

Americans 2008: 53-46 Obama
Americans 2020: 52-47 Biden (+2 R)
Americans have shifted a little bit towards the Republican Party since 2008, but there hasn't been a huge total swing. What categories have shifted, though?

Liberals 2008: 89-10 Obama
Liberals 2020: 89-10 Biden (no change)
This is a small left trend, but basically Trump and McCain were equally appealing to Republican-voting liberals, I guess

Moderates 2008: 60-39 Obama
Moderates 2020: 64-34 Biden (+9 D)
Self-identified moderates have shifted hard D since 2008 -- this is an 11-point trend!

Conservatives 2008: 78-20 McCain
Conservatives 2020: 85-14 Trump (+13 R)
But self-identified conservatives have moved even harder towards the Republicans

Democrats 2008: 89-10 Obama
Democrats 2020: 94-5 Biden (+10 D)
As Conservadems have moved away from Democratic identification, Biden improved big with this group

Republicans 2008: 90-9 McCain
Republicans 2020: 94-6 Trump (+7 R)
Likewise, there are now fewer ancestral liberal Republicans who might vote Democratic in a presidential election (...even though the same number of liberals vote R, they don't identify R, I guess)

Independents 2008: 52-44 Obama
Independents 2020: 54-42 Biden (+4 D)
Independents, like moderates, have gotten more D (though this is probably right-wing independents becoming likelier to call themselves Republicans)

Men 2008: 49-48 Obama
Men 2020: 53-45 Trump (+9 R)
Trump improved *bigly* with men. Obama won them outright by a point, but Trump won them by 8 points. There's probably a county somewhere in the Midwest that describes

Women 2008: 56-43 Obama
Women 2020: 57-42 Biden (+2 D)
Women have gotten more Democratic -- and the total gender gap is much bigger now -- but not by as much. The gender gap, so far, is more men moving rightwards

Married people 2008: 52-47 McCain
Married people 2020: 53-45 Trump (+3 R)
An unexpectedly small shift here, I'll be honest

Unmarried people 2008: 65-33 Obama
Unmarried people 2020: 58-40 Biden (+14 R)
Trump does much better with people who are not married than McCain did. (This is our first fun Simpson's paradox example -- how come both married and unmarried Americans moved more Republican than total Americans? This is because the Democratic group, unmarried Americans, became a bigger fraction of the whole. This theme repeats)

Whites 2008: 55-43 McCain
Whites 2020: 57-41 Trump (+4 R)
Whites have gotten a bit more Republican, but not by very much more than America as a whole. (This hides that racially polarized voting spiked during Obama's years in office, then declined under Trump back to where it had been)

Blacks 2008: 95-4 Obama
Blacks 2020: 87-12 Biden (+16 R)
...yeah, obviously nobody's going to match Obama 2008 with blacks, but they're among the most-Republican-shifted groups in this set, which I didn't expect

Asians 2008: 62-35 Obama
Asians 2020: 63-36 Biden (no change)
Asians haven't shifted, which is a small D trend

Other races 2008: 66-31 Obama
Other races 2020: 55-41 Biden (+21 R)
I think this one is people who understood the question poorly, or some Hispanics who don't like the phrases Hispanic/Latino but also don't feel themselves white. This is the single group with which Trump improved the most, though it is still safely D overall

Hispanics 2008: 67-31 Obama
Latinos 2020: 65-33 Biden (+4 R)
Less of a swing here than you might've expected, though note that Hispanics/Latinos swung way left in 2012/2016, so Trump had to make up a lot of ground here.

Protestants 2008: 54-45 McCain
Protestants 2020: 60-39 Trump (+12 R)
Trump did way better with Protestants; presumably this reflects both unchurched people being likelier to identify as "none" and declining religiosity in the black community

Catholics 2008: 54-45 Obama
Catholics 2020: 52-47 Biden (+4 R)
Not a big shift among Catholics, though in its own way this is probably good for the GOP since Catholics in the US are now way more Latino

Jews 2008: 78-21 Obama
Jews 2020: 76-22 Biden (+3 R)
No large change in sentiment among Jews, though I think non-Orthodox Jews have swung somewhat left compared to 2008 and this is masked by growing Orthodox numbers. Could be wrong, though

Other religions 2008: 73-22 Obama
Other religions 2020: 69-29 Biden (+11 R)
With the War on Terror fading into the rearview mirror, Trump did better with Muslims than any Republican in a generation. He was also among the first Republicans to do Hindu-specific outreach, though I'm less sure that was successful

“None” religion 2008: 75-23 Obama
“None” religion 2020: 65-31 Biden (+18 R)
Republicans in 2020 are perceived as being way less influenced by the religious right; "nones" are now much likelier to vote Republican

Born-again 2008: 74-24 McCain
Born-again 2020: 76-24 Trump (+2 R)
This is true even though evangelicals have gotten a tad more Republican and are now a bigger fraction of the electorate

Not born-again 2008: 62-36 Obama
Not born-again 2020: 62-36 Biden (no change)
Fun fact: the last time a Republican improved with this group was the Bush-2000 campaign. Note the Simpson's Paradox again (born-again Americans and not-born-again Americans both swung less than Americans total, because born-again are now more common)

Gays 2008: 70-27 Obama
Gays 2020: 67-30 Biden (+6 R)
This is "LGB". With the gay marriage fight fading in the rearview mirror, LGB Americans are likelier to vote GOP

Straights 2008: 53-45 Obama
Straights 2020: 51-48 Biden (+5 R)
Straights have improved too. Both groups swung towards Republicans more than Americans as a whole did -- because, as a country, we're now gayer

High school or less 2008: 54-44 Obama
High school or less 2020: 54-46 Trump (+18 R)
"We love the poorly educated!" One of the main political stories of the last decade. It was not exaggerated.

Some college 2008: 51-47 Obama
Some college 2020: 49-48 Biden (+3 R)
The 2020 survey disassociated "associate's degree" from "some college", but they were the same category in 2008. Anyway, no big shift here

College graduate 2008: 50-48 Obama
College graduate 2020: 51-47 Biden (+2 D)
Keep in mind America shifted right, so this is actually a sizable leftward trend. But the total shift in margin is small.

Postgraduate 2008: 58-40 Obama
Postgraduate 2020: 62-37 Biden (+5 D)
A more impressive shift here, though

Union households 2008: 59-39 Obama
Union households 2020: 56-40 Biden (+4 R)
Union-members got a bit more Republican

Non-union households 2008: 51-47 Obama
Non-union households 2020: 50-49 Biden (+3 R)
But not very different from non-union households. Unions weren't a big driver of political events in the last decade

Veterans 2008: 54-44 McCain
Veterans 2020: 54-44 Trump (no change)
Veterans have trended a bit left -- note that Americans as a whole swung right, so this is a left-ward trend. McCain had more unique appeal for this demographic than Trump did

Non-veterans 2008: 54-44 Obama
Non-veterans 2020: 53-45 Biden (+2 R)
"Non-veterans" pretty much just swung the same as ordinary Americans

Northeast 2008: 59-40 Obama
East 2008: 58-40 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here, except the random region renaming without redrawing boundaries

Midwest 2008: 54-44 Obama
Midwest 2020: 51-47 Trump (+14 R)
Obama's 2008 campaign was the strongest Democrat in many Midwestern states since 1964. Trump, too, has a special appeal to the region, which swung pretty hard Republican

South 2008: 54-45 McCain
South 2020: 53-46 Trump (+2 D)
The South, gradually becoming less white, is trending Democratic

West 2008: 57-40 Obama
West 2020: 57-41 Biden (+1 R)
Not a big shift here

Urban 2008: 63-35 Obama
Urban 2020: 60-38 Biden (+5 R)
Trump was more appealing to cities than McCain. Note that, contrary to what you may think, "urban" as a category was a more common answer in 2008 than 2020

Suburban 2008: 50-48 Obama
Suburban 2020: 50-48 Biden (no change)
Suburbs grew as a share of the electorate, and trended somewhat Democratic

Rural 2008: 53-45 McCain
Rural 2020: 57-42 Trump (+7 R)
Rural areas became more Republican

Interesting data.

Any other Republican would have won somewhere around 280-320 EVs because it was basically a signifier of an eroding opposition coalition. Biden won on an eroding coalition. It will be very interesting to see where things go from here. It really could go anywhere.

I could see Republicans continue to struggle until they abandon Trumpism or become popular under someone like DeSantis and the only way Democrats start winning again is to try to integrate Trumpism into their agenda they way Clinton did with Reagan under someone maybe not quite like Gabbard (but promises to cut the excess emphasis on civil rights/liberties to a level still acceptable to liberals but also starts running a more grassroots style campaign on a Bernie style agenda) and probably someone who doesn’t enter the stage until they become a Senator or Governor in a state like Florida or Ohio in 2026 or 2030.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It's definitely more left-wing in terms of issue positions and attitudes, but Republicans also paradoxically do better up and down the ballot.