Mapping UK constituencies by social deprivation

[Geoffrey Howe]

Chesham and Amersham is notable since it's having a by-election soon and is one of those Tory Remain seats. The Tory majority is very strong there so it would be a huge upset if it flipped, but whether it swings to or from the Tories, and if it's the latter how much, could be interesting to see.

Yes, it was over 50% in 1997. 

[Geoffrey Howe]

Low deprivation isn't the same thing as wealth.  Sheffield Hallam is very middle class with only a couple of enclaves of poorer areas, and bits of it are genuinely quite wealthy, but its average income won't be as high as a lot of Tory seats in the South East.  It's also a relatively professional, public sector, educated middle class, none of which helps the Tories these days, though it might help the Lib Dems.

It seems generally that in measures of deprivation, the lowest areas are those which are consistently 'average' if you like, or middle-class, rather than wealthy; very wealthy areas being often quite close to poor areas.

Kensington
Cities of London and Westminster
Chelsea and Fulham
Richmond Park
Beaconsfield
Esher and Walton
Westminster North
Chesham and Amersham
Tatton
Buckingham

And if you exclude Queen's Park/Harrow Road which are lighter on 'managers,' Westminster North was almost certainly Tory in 2015. Not sure about 2017.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Chesham and Amersham is notable since it's having a by-election soon and is one of those Tory Remain seats. The Tory majority is very strong there so it would be a huge upset if it flipped, but whether it swings to or from the Tories, and if it's the latter how much, could be interesting to see.

Yes, it was over 50% in 1997.  

How many seats saw the Conservatives obtain an absolute majority of votes in 1997?

I've been trying to compile a list, but off the top of my head:

Sutton Coldfield
East Surrey [Geoffrey Howe's constituency]
Huntingdon [John Major's constituency]
Wokingham
Arundel and South Downs
Ruislip-Northwood
Kensington
Beaconsfield was extremely close despite minor right-wing parties getting 9% combined

I'm sure there are a few more. It would be nice if someone could find them!

[Geoffrey Howe]

snip

By the way, Aldershot was only 42%.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Another point is that there are only 10 Conservative-held seats where the Remain vote was 60% or higher, and 25 where the Remain vote was 55% or higher. The Remain vote must have been heavily concentrated in high turnout Labour-held constituencies, though to be fair it does seem like marginal Leave seats (so Leave votes in the mid 50s percentage-wise) are pretty common. A majority of those Remain seats, and 7/9 of the seats with 60%+ Remain votes, have Tory majorities smaller than their nationwide popular vote win. However, most of those marginal seats have the LibDems in second place, so it's unclear if Labour would be able to not only leapfrog the LibDems but actually peel off enough Tory support to win. 3 of those seats are also vulnerable to the SNP.

What are these outside of Scotland? Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster and Chelsea & Fulham are the only ones I can think of.