Mapping UK constituencies by social deprivation (user search)
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  Mapping UK constituencies by social deprivation (search mode)
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Author Topic: Mapping UK constituencies by social deprivation  (Read 3658 times)
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,101
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

« on: May 09, 2021, 03:11:41 PM »

Thanks very much. I won't make comments on the content but it's great work and nice to have it mapped out so I don't have to trawl through it so much - it's not so much the individual rankings that matter but which end each seat is.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,101
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2021, 03:07:36 PM »

Maybe it might be worth pointing out that you can't apply the trends from the US to every other country? There are no UK constituency equivalents to any Congressional Districts worth citing ahead of actual information about the constituencies. I've never seen any UK member go into a thread on the Congressional Elections board and refer to districts as the Putneys or the Mansfields of the US.

It should also go without saying that the constituencies themselves are not uniform. One example: Southampton Itchen contains the city centre, including university halls of residence, council estates like Thornhill, Weston and Townhill Park, and some affluent housing not dissimilar to suburbs in other parts of Hampshire. There's no need to over-generalise everything.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,101
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2021, 05:47:22 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2021, 05:55:07 AM by beesley »

Another point is that there are only 10 Conservative-held seats where the Remain vote was 60% or higher, and 25 where the Remain vote was 55% or higher. The Remain vote must have been heavily concentrated in high turnout Labour-held constituencies, though to be fair it does seem like marginal Leave seats (so Leave votes in the mid 50s percentage-wise) are pretty common. A majority of those Remain seats, and 7/9 of the seats with 60%+ Remain votes, have Tory majorities smaller than their nationwide popular vote win. However, most of those marginal seats have the LibDems in second place, so it's unclear if Labour would be able to not only leapfrog the LibDems but actually peel off enough Tory support to win. 3 of those seats are also vulnerable to the SNP.

What are these outside of Scotland? Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster and Chelsea & Fulham are the only ones I can think of.

The 60+ Remain ones are I believe:
Altrincham and Sale West
Chelsea and Fulham
Two Cities
Finchley and Golders' Green
Hitchin and Harpenden
Kensington
South Cambs
West Aberdeenshire
Wimbledon
Winchester

The Lib Dems are in second place in all of these except Altrincham, Kensington and West Aberdeenshire.

The other 55%+ Remain Conservative seats I have down as:
Berwickshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chipping Barnet
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Hendon
Henley
Rushcliffe
SW Surrey
Tunbridge Wells
Woking
Wokingham
York Outer

That adds up to 25, so I believe we're on the same page.
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