Ted Cruz vs Joe Biden

[pbrower2a]

Elections involving an incumbent President typically have maps similar (five or fewer than five states changing one way or other) from the previous election with the Presidential winner if the same person. Exceptions in the last century are 1932, 1940 (unprecedented third term) 1972 (follows a three-way election), 1980, and 1992. 1936, 1944, 1956, 1984, 1996, 2004, 2012, and even 2020 (the incumbent lost, but that involved five states) fit the pattern. Only six states were bare Biden wins (3% or less, or 7% if such is your taste), and only three states that Biden lost were decided by 7% or less, and one of those is Texas. 

This is my first point. I see Ted Cruz as a horrible match for most of America. He might do better among Cuban-Americans than Trump because, well, he is. He is an unpleasant person, and people who thought Trump unacceptable aren't going to see him as an improvement.

So if the economy is OK and the international scene isn't in rapid decay while we have a scandal-free administration, Biden wins against anyone. That's how all elections have worked for a Presidential incumbent. Romney couldn't beat Obama.

He would do unusually badly in his home state for a Favorite Son.    He might do worse than Trump in Iowa and Ohio.