Ted Cruz vs Joe Biden
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Ted Cruz vs Joe Biden
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Author Topic: Ted Cruz vs Joe Biden  (Read 782 times)
Southern Senator Spark
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« on: May 09, 2021, 07:36:09 AM »
« edited: May 09, 2021, 08:44:48 AM by Southern Senator Spark »

No-tossups map


President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 292 EVs, 52%
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD) - 246 EVs, 47%

Who wins?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2021, 07:39:13 AM »

Biden would win. I think even Harris would win pretty easily. Ted Cruz is impossible to like on any level.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2021, 08:45:17 AM »

D's are gonna lose GA
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Medal506
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2021, 08:55:33 AM »

Biden would win. I think even Harris would win pretty easily. Ted Cruz is impossible to like on any level.

Harris would lose to Cruz but Biden would beat Cruz.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2021, 10:42:04 AM »

Biden would win. I think even Harris would win pretty easily. Ted Cruz is impossible to like on any level.

Harris would lose to Cruz but Biden would beat Cruz.

She would be a riskier candidate than Biden, but I don't think Cruz is favored against her. His politics are inherently disingenuous much like all of the formerly anti-Trump Republicans, but on top of that he's shockingly unlikable.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2021, 10:46:18 AM »

Biden or Harris wins, 2020 map but maybe gaining North Carolina
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2021, 11:51:14 AM »

Elections involving an incumbent President typically have maps similar (five or fewer than five states changing one way or other) from the previous election with the Presidential winner if the same person. Exceptions in the last century are 1932, 1940 (unprecedented third term) 1972 (follows a three-way election), 1980, and 1992. 1936, 1944, 1956, 1984, 1996, 2004, 2012, and even 2020 (the incumbent lost, but that involved five states) fit the pattern. Only six states were bare Biden wins (3% or less, or 7% if such is your taste), and only three states that Biden lost were decided by 7% or less, and one of those is Texas. 

This is my first point. I see Ted Cruz as a horrible match for most of America. He might do better among Cuban-Americans than Trump because, well, he is. He is an unpleasant person, and people who thought Trump unacceptable aren't going to see him as an improvement.

So if the economy is OK and the international scene isn't in rapid decay while we have a scandal-free administration, Biden wins against anyone. That's how all elections have worked for a Presidential incumbent. Romney couldn't beat Obama.

He would do unusually badly in his home state for a Favorite Son.    He might do worse than Trump in Iowa and Ohio.     
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2021, 11:59:41 AM »

Biden would win. I think even Harris would win pretty easily. Ted Cruz is impossible to like on any level.

Harris would lose to Cruz but Biden would beat Cruz.

There is literally no good reason to believe that she, or any other Democrat, would lose to Ted Cruz.
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Da2017
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2021, 12:03:34 PM »

Biden or Harris win. I don't think Cruz will be nominated.
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Literally Just a Contrarian
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2021, 02:36:32 PM »

Biden probably wins because Cruz is unlikable, but if thereís anyone who would lose to Cruz, it would be Harris.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2021, 03:11:27 PM »

A dream come true for Biden. Cruz is too theocratic, too anti-entitlements, too hawkish, not protectionist enough, and too unlikeable for the Rust Belt.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2021, 03:15:54 PM »

Biden probably wins because Cruz is unlikable, but if thereís anyone who would lose to Cruz, it would be Harris.

Let me guess, itís because of her laugh?
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Literally Just a Contrarian
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« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2021, 03:21:34 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2021, 03:24:56 PM by Chuck Grassley/Kyrsten Sinema Stan »

Biden probably wins because Cruz is unlikable, but if thereís anyone who would lose to Cruz, it would be Harris.

Let me guess, itís because of her laugh?

I'll always think Harris, despite the general consensus being that she's a very weak candidate, is laughably overestimated still.

Sheís an awful candidate with no appeal with any group, she's out of touch with the electorate, is too far to the left for moderates and too much of a ďcopĒ for progressives, she has no charisma, and is horribly unlikable, even more than someone like Cruz, etc.

So no, itís not just her laugh. This is someone who didnít even make it to a primary two years ago lmfao.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2021, 03:26:02 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2021, 10:42:48 AM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »

Biden probably wins because Cruz is unlikable, but if thereís anyone who would lose to Cruz, it would be Harris.

Let me guess, itís because of her laugh?

I'll always think Harris, despite the general consensus being that she's a very weak candidate, is laughably overestimated still.

Sheís an awful candidate with no appeal with any group, she's out of touch with the electorate, is too far to the left for moderates and too much of a ďcopĒ for progressives, she has no charisma, and is horribly unlikable, even more than someone like Cruz, etc.

So no, itís not just her laugh. This is someone who didnít even make it to a primary two years ago lmfao.

Got it, Kyrsten Sinema Stan.
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Chips
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2021, 10:14:45 PM »

Biden wins.
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Teflon Joe.
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2021, 10:56:58 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2021, 01:56:18 AM by Teflon Joe. »

A dream come true for Biden. Cruz is too theocratic, too anti-entitlements, too hawkish, not protectionist enough, and too unlikeable for the Rust Belt.

Lyin' Ted would lose NC, FL, ME-2 and would be at risk of losing OH and IA, compared to what Trump got in 2020. Ted Cruz is hated in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt, and Republicans would be at risk of a 2012 Rust Belt map and a 2020 Sun Belt map that is even worse then what Trump got.

He has all of the downsides of Trump and none of the upsides, he is fake and has no charisma.
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Spectator
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2021, 11:00:32 PM »

Thereís a good chance Cruz would lose Texas. I donít see a good reason why heíd flip Arizona unless the economy is sh**t.
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NHI
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2021, 11:03:26 PM »

Cruz will never be president.
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The Pieman
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2021, 11:53:39 PM »

I think people generally are underestimating Republicans' chance for 2024, but Cruz would be one of the worst candidates. He could lose in a 413 landslide, there's no way he's winning
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2021, 12:15:39 AM »

Cru would be crushed in a landslide, he is a shell of himself after he played a role in Insurrectionists just like Hawley
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2021, 01:06:28 AM »

That's a hilariously weak Republican ticket. Almost all Trump voters will rally behind it anyway, but Biden should be able to win comfortably without a landslide anyway.
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2021, 01:51:04 AM »

That's a hilariously weak Republican ticket. Almost all Trump voters will rally behind it anyway, but Biden should be able to win comfortably without a landslide anyway.
Romney-Trump 16-Trump 20 voters would almost without exception rally behind it. Obama 12-Trump 16-Trump 20, not so much.
Cruz would lose a lot of swingy voters in the Midwest, though not quite as many as a 2016 candidacy would.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2021, 04:37:09 AM »

Everybody hates Ted Cruz. I don't see how he gets more than the absolute floor for the current version of the GQP. A dream match-up for Uncle Joe, frankly.
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Redban
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« Reply #23 on: May 10, 2021, 04:56:17 AM »

Cruz has horrendous favorable ratings across the board. Even many Republicans dislike him. He would lose big.
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SWE
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« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2021, 11:18:21 AM »

One of the few matchups even Harris would win fairly easily
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