Who’d be more likely to win a Senate race, Jim Lamon or Kelly Ayotte?

[MT Treasurer]

More on Lamon, who announced his candidacy for Senate this week:

https://ktar.com/story/4378588/solar-executive-is-1st-gop-candidate-in-2022-arizona-us-senate-race/

I say Ayotte because Hassan is weaker than Kelly, NH is more swingy/elastic than AZ, and Lamon will probably turn out to be another loony AZ QOPer. He wasn’t even born in AZ (he’s from AL...).

There’s also this:

Lamon was one of Trump’s 11 presidential electors in Arizona and would have represented the state in the Electoral College if Trump hadn’t lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

After the election, Lamon and the 10 other electors sued alleging Arizona election systems have security flaws that let election workers and foreign countries manipulate results and that those systems switched votes from Trump to Biden. The case was dismissed for failing to provide evidence to back up its claims.

Par for the course given that this is the AZ GOP we’re talking about here, I guess. Good grief.

[Meatball Ron]

NH is more swingy/elastic than AZ

This is a meme, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte is old news, we have a moderate in Collins and except for Cabinet she has voted against every Progressive Legislation, she will lose in 2026

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The only NH Rep I can see winning is Sunnunu, AZ has enough Republicans that a random one can win in a wave next year or against a weak incumbent in 24.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH isn't voting for Sununu, Hassan has enough money to blast Sununu on the airwaves for voting against the Minimum wage when the state Legislature sent it to him

Shaheen was in a similar position in 2014 and Brown was just as popular as Sununu and Brown LOST


D's aren't gonna lose these 306 states when they lead on Generic ballot 5.0

pbower2A has Hassan safe D and so does Cook and Sabato ratings

[S019]

I'd honestly say Ayotte. I know the AZ GOP is a running gag/joke here. However, while people do overstate the extent to which they'd be bad (you'd think Kelly was headed for a double digit landslide by the way some people describe the party), it is an objective fact that is an insane party that caters to an insane base. People often forget this but way back in 2016, John McCain barely got a majority despite being a Senator for forever, and Kelli Ward, who was a kooky wacko nearly got 40%. In 2018, Jeff Flake was on track to be humiliated by a primary by the same Kelli Ward, until he dropped out McSally jumped in, and consolidated basically everyone except the crazies. The crazies still got around 45% of the vote, and people forget this, but McSally had to tack really hard to the right to win that primary. Then, Kelli Ward became chair, elected by the same insane people who now comprised more than 40% of the AZ primary electorate. She and the party joined the efforts to overturn the election, and it became clear that the party's base was increasingly out of touch with the electorate (this should've been clear in 2018, when McSally was forced to pivot so far to the right). The fact that Lamon has been involved in similar activities, suggests he also comes from this insane wing of the party which now commands considerable influence. Now, this isn't to say he cannot win, he very well could, but things have not gone well for the AZ GOP since the crazies began to wield more and more power.