Will Florida, North Carolina or Texas be contested by Democrats in 2024

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yes, or at least they should.

Not contesting NC would be moronic, it leans GOP and hasn't really trended either way, but it's winnable. Ground game is key.

TX has Cruz, and I would argue that a split ticket is possible there, with the GOP presidential candidate winning but Cruz losing. The trends in the big cities needs to be continued, and we still don't know if the RGV/Hispanic GOP trend is permanent or an anomaly. Money spent there is money that goes towards taking down Cruz and picking up House seats, even if it doesn't translate to the presidential election. Downballot races are important! The House and the Senate are arguably more important than the President in the realm of domestic policy, and state and local elections can also affect how a party does nationally.

Florida does seem to be trending the wrong way, but like the RGV, we don't know if the South Florida trend is permanent or an anomaly born out of a weird election. Besides that, downballot races.

More than all of that, Dems can't be writing off states. Don't drop all your cash on difficult states, but as long as a state is plausibly winnable in the current election or within the next few, you should at least try to contest. The rust belt going red in 2016 wasn't a random event, the GOP had built their ground game in the upper midwest for years, until the right candidate came along and gave them the edge.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yes, or at least they should.

Not contesting NC would be moronic, it leans GOP and hasn't really trended either way, but it's winnable. Ground game is key.

TX has Cruz, and I would argue that a split ticket is possible there, with the GOP presidential candidate winning but Cruz losing. The trends in the big cities needs to be continued, and we still don't know if the RGV/Hispanic GOP trend is permanent or an anomaly. Money spent there is money that goes towards taking down Cruz and picking up House seats, even if it doesn't translate to the presidential election. Downballot races are important! The House and the Senate are arguably more important than the President in the realm of domestic policy, and state and local elections can also affect how a party does nationally.

Florida does seem to be trending the wrong way, but like the RGV, we don't know if the South Florida trend is permanent or an anomaly born out of a weird election. Besides that, downballot races.

More than all of that, Dems can't be writing off states. Don't drop all your cash on difficult states, but as long as a state is plausibly winnable in the current election or within the next few, you should at least try to contest. The rust belt going red in 2016 wasn't a random event, the GOP had built their ground game in the upper midwest for years, until the right candidate came along and gave them the edge.

REALLY

D's don't need any of these states all they need is NV, NM, PA, MI and WI

If all you want to do is maintain a razor-thin margin in presidential and senate elections, sure. But if one or two of those states fall, then what? And why not try to expand your majority? A 1.2% universal swing in 2020 would have re-elected Trump, Democrats can't afford to be lazy.

Parties need to grow, or they die. Democrats should learn a lesson from UK Labour. For years they took Scotland and the north of England for granted, didn't really try to expand, and now they're screwed.