Will Florida, North Carolina or Texas be contested by Democrats in 2024 (user search)
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  Will Florida, North Carolina or Texas be contested by Democrats in 2024 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will Florida, North Carolina or Texas be contested by Democrats in 2024  (Read 1206 times)
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« on: May 09, 2021, 02:06:32 PM »

Not targeting North Carolina at least would be stupid as hell. If you look at the precinct and swing results you'll see that Democrats have probably come close to the floor in rural NC (most of it has a significant black population), yet the Republicans have downright collapsed NOVA-style in some of their former strongholds. For example Cary (an affluent white flight overgrown suburb of Raleigh that's only considered a "town" in its incorporation yet has grown to a population of over 170k) voted for Biden by over 30 points! And the former GOP stronghold of south central Charlotte is pretty much all gone, even in 2016 Trump won most of this area, yet it had a double digit swing toward Biden, Biden even won precincts that look like this.

Furthermore, population trends benefit the Democrats and some that benefited Republicans have mostly halted. For example, Randolph County (an uber-GOP exurb of Greensboro), only grew about 2% in Census estimates...yet the aforementioned Cary grew over 25% with Wake County as a whole over 23%, and Mecklenberg County grew over 22%. This is as the state as a whole grew 9.5%. There's really not a whole lot of bright spots for the GOP in terms of NC demographics, even if the state has managed to take on a sort of "Titanium Tilt R" status now.
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