Was winning Miami-Dade every a realistic possibility for Trump this election?
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Author Topic: Was winning Miami-Dade every a realistic possibility for Trump this election?  (Read 1738 times)
Woody
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« on: May 07, 2021, 08:17:39 AM »
?
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2021, 08:35:34 AM »
No.
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bagelman
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2021, 08:54:33 AM »
Trump did about as well as he could've hoped there.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2021, 09:28:04 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won Miami-Dade if Klobuchar or Booty Boy was on the ticket. They had no black or hispanic support at all.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2021, 10:33:53 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2021, 11:37:34 AM by Oregon Eagle Politics »
Quote from: bagelman on May 07, 2021, 08:54:33 AM
Trump did about as well as he could've hoped there.
No, he did better than he could've hoped for. No one predicted Biden would win Miami-Dade by only 7.
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krb08
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2021, 10:04:39 PM »
No. He did better than anyone expected and then some. There's a certain point at which you've done so good that it's near impossible to do much better. Trump reached that point in 2020 in Dade.
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Chips
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2021, 10:39:39 PM »
No. He could've made it maybe 1 or 2 points closer.
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E-Dawg
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2021, 07:34:03 PM »
Hard to say based on current information. We won't know the answer to this until we see whether the GOP can continue building on its gains there. If the GOP does gain to the point where they win the county in an upcoming election, then it probably was a realistic possibility if Trump ran a better campaign. However, if the county swings back to the Dems and Trump's performance proves to be an outlier, then he probably did the best he could have done. Either scenario is possible. We'll see how DeSantis and Rubio do here in 2022.

I am still amazed to see people speculate on this county with such certainty. People keep saying things like "This county will FOR SURE swing back Dem! Trump did the best any Republican can do and the Cuban vote is maxed out!" after this county just delivered an unbelievable result literally nobody saw coming in 2020! People who predicted Trump getting 46% would have been called insane trolls! There is no reason to be sure that the county will not become more GOP. I would agree that the county is unlikely to flip, but its certainly a possibly since that would only require a 7 point swing, which is nothing compared to the 22 point swing from 2016-2020.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2021, 07:59:18 PM »
How much of the Cuban vote did Trump receive and how does that compare to the modern Republican peak with that demographic there?
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2021, 08:01:11 PM »
Quote from: Pericles on May 08, 2021, 07:59:18 PM
How much of the Cuban vote did Trump receive and how does that compare to the modern Republican peak with that demographic there?

Republicans in the 1980s I believe got 90%+ of the Cuban vote in Florida
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2021, 01:18:55 PM »
No way of knowing (sane, normal)
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EJ24
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2021, 06:41:46 PM »
Yes, he would've had Bernie Sandaaahs been nominated.
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2021, 03:54:21 AM »
Yes.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2021, 04:21:44 PM »
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2021, 06:18:21 PM »
I still say no. There is clearly a Democratic floor, even if it's way smaller than it should be. Honestly, coming as close as he did is almost like winning the county in itself. Accomplishing that made it impossible for Biden to win the "Sunshine" State.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2021, 05:06:20 AM »
Quote from: ? on May 11, 2021, 02:11:35 PM
Quote from: ? on May 09, 2021, 09:25:11 PM
When a SirWoodbury thread doesn't have nearly all of the posts be about his year-long bet, I find something is amiss

Quite frankly, something is amiss
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2021, 06:41:21 AM »
No. Although not a 1:1 correlation (yet), counties that contain a major city aren’t voting Republican anymore. The best they can hope for is reducing the margins, and they were successful here to bring it from -30 to -7.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2021, 08:05:40 AM »
2020 was Trump's election floor, so yes.
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