Alberta Municipal Elections, Referendum(s), and Senate Nominee Election: October 18, 2021

[Njall]

While I can't get into nearly as much detail with municipalities outside of Calgary and Edmonton, I figured that it would be useful to give a high-level overview of what the elections look like in the bigger cities outside of those two, especially given the number of open Mayor's seats this time around.


Airdrie

Incumbent Mayor Peter Brown is running for a fourth term, having served as Mayor since 2010, meaning that Airdrie's population has almost doubled under his watch (the 2011 federal census gave Airdrie's population as 42,564 while Alberta Municipal Affairs estimated that it had grown to 75,707 by 2020). In 2017, Mayor Brown won re-election to a third term by taking 46% of the vote in a five-person race. This election, he is facing two challengers: former Councillor Allan Hunter and 2017 Council candidate Lindsay Coyle.

Meanwhile, 18 candidates are running for the 6 at-large Councillor positions on Airdrie City Council. Only one incumbent is retiring, current Deputy Mayor Kelly Hegg, who has been on Council for 17 years. The five incumbent Councillors who are running for re-election are: Darrell Belyk, Ron Chapman, Candice Kolson, Al Jones, and Tina Petrow.


Grande Prairie

The Grande Prairie Mayor's seat is an open race for the first time since 2010, as incumbent Mayor Bill Given resigned the position on January 1st of this year in order to become the Chief Administrative Officer of the Municipality of Jasper. Given had previously announced that he would not be running for a fourth term. In 2017, Given was re-elected with 68% of the vote, beating three opponents. After Given resigned, Council unanimously elected two-term Councillor Jackie Clayton to serve as interim Mayor until this year's elections. Clayton is running for a full term as Mayor this election. Her main opponent appears to be first-term Councillor Eunice Friesen. In the 2017 Council election, Clayton and Friesen placed third and first, respectively, out of a field of 19 candidates.

This year's election also has 19 candidates competing for the 8 at-large Councillor positions on Grande Prairie City Council. Four incumbents are running for re-election, while two are running for Mayor and the rest appear to be retiring. The four Councillors who are running for re-election are: Dylan Bressey, Kevin O'Toole, Chris Thiessen, and Yadvinder Minhas.


Lethbridge

Lethbridge also has an open Mayor's seat, with incumbent Mayor Chris Spearman having decided to not seek re-election. Spearman has served as Mayor for two terms, since 2013, but he has been an elected official since 1995, having served as a Trustee on the board of the Holy Spirit Catholic School Division before running for Mayor. Spearman was re-elected with 74% of the vote in 2017, defeating two opponents. Six candidates are running for Mayor in Lethbridge this year, and based on a brief look into the race, it would appear that the two frontrunners are anecdotally incumbent Councillor Blaine Hyggen and former Councillor Bridget Mearns.

The Council race seems quite crowded, with 32 candidates running for the 8 at-large Councillor positions on Lethbridge City Council. Out of the 8 incumbent Councillors, 4 are running for re-election: Mark Campbell, Jeff Carlson, Ryan Parker, and Belinda Crowson.

Also, for whatever it's worth, the Lethbridge & District Labour Council has endorsed Bridget Mearns for Mayor, and Darcy Logan, Jenn Prosser, and Marissa Black for Council.

Lethbridge voters will also be asked to vote in two municipal plebiscites. The first asks voters whether City Council should approve plans to construct a third bridge over the Oldman River before 2030 as a capital project priority. The second, which I imagine will be of much more interest to posters here, asks voters whether they would like to switch to a ward-based system beginning in the 2025 municipal election. As a thought exercise on the election website, city administration has presented a number of hypothetical scenarios for what a ward-based system could look like (maps are on the linked page):

• Scenario 1: 8 single-member wards
• Scenario 2: 3 multi-member wards, each electing 2-3 Councillors
• Scenario 3: a hybrid system, with 3 wards each electing 1-2 Councillors, plus 3 at-large Councillors

I'll just note that voters are just being asked about whether they approve of a ward system, not which of the possible scenarios they would prefer. I'll also note for context that two of the above scenario feature three wards because in those scenarios, the ward boundaries would follow the three established and well-known geographic sectors of Lethbridge (North, South, and West).


Medicine Hat

Medicine Hat's incumbent Mayor, Ted Clugston, is running for a third term as Mayor. If he's successful, this will also be his fifth term as a member of City Council. In 2017, he was re-elected with 57% of the vote, besting three challengers.

As well, 32 candidates are competing for the 8 at-large Councillor positions on Medicine Hat City Council. Out of 7 incumbent Councillors (the last member of Council passed away a few weeks ago), 4 are running for re-election: Robert Dumanowski, Darren Hirsch, Phil Turnbull, and Brian Vega.

The Medicine Hat & District Labour Council has endorsed Linnsie Clark for Mayor, as well as Robert Dumanowski (incumbent), Alison Van Dyke, Allison Knodel, Brian Webster, and Cassi Hider for City Council.


Red Deer

Two-term incumbent Mayor Tara Veer is not running for re-election, after having served on Council since 2004 and as Mayor since 2013. In 2017, Veer beat her only opponent with 88% of the vote. There are six candidates vying to replace her as Mayor, including two incumbent Councillors: Buck Buchanan and Ken Johnston.

Meanwhile, 30 candidates are running for the 8 at-large Councillor positions on Red Deer City Council. Out of the 8 incumbent Councillors, 2 are running for Mayor and 2 are retiring, while 4 are running for re-election: Michael Dawe, Vesna Higham, Lawrence Lee, and Dianne Wyntjes. Former Red Deer-South PC MLA and Cabinet Minister Victor Doerksen is also amongst the candidates running for City Council.

The Red Deer & District Labour Council has endorsed incumbent Councillor Ken Johnston for Mayor, and Dianne Wyntjes (incumbent), Craig Curtis, Hans Huizing, Cindy Jefferies, Sadia Khan, and Lisa Spencer-Cook for Council.


St. Albert

Incumbent Mayor Cathy Heron is running for a second term as Mayor, and a fourth term overall on City Council. In 2017, Heron ran as an establishment progressive-leaning candidate against fellow Councillor Cam Mackay's populist campaign, beating him by a 50%-32% margin. This election, she has attracted three challengers, although I believe she's favoured to be re-elected. Interestingly, amongst her challengers is 90-year old former Councillor Bob Russell, who served as leader of the Alberta Liberal Party between 1971 and 1974.

There are also 20 candidates running for the 6 at-large Councillor positions on St. Albert City Council. Four of the six incumbent Councillors are running for re-election: Wes Brodhead, Sheena Hughes, Natalie Joly, and Ken Mackay. Of note, one of the other candidates in the race is Shelley Biermanski, who ran as the Wildrose candidate in St. Albert in 2015 and received 13% of the vote. She also previously ran twice for Mayor.


Strathcona County

Incumbent Mayor Rod Frank is running for re-election to a second term. Frank had run unsuccessfully as the Liberal candidate in Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan in the 2015 federal election, before running against then-incumbent Mayor Roxanne Carr as a fiscal conservative in 2017 and beating her by a 37%-30% margin, in a race which also featured a former Mayor and a former area MLA. Interestingly, in 2013, Carr had herself won the Mayor's seat by beating then-Mayor Linda Osinchuk by a 51%-49% margin. Frank is facing four opponents in his re-election bid, most notably Dave Quest (former PC MLA for Strathcona-Sherwood Park 2008-2015, and 2019 Alberta Party candidate) and Annie McKitrick (former NDP MLA for Sherwood Park 2015-2019).

As a specialized municipality, Strathcona County Council is elected from a ward system, with five urban wards (1-4 and 8.) in Sherwood Park, and three rural wards (5-7) covering the rest of the county. Six of the eight incumbent Councillors are running for re-election: Robert Parks (Ward 1), Dave Anderson (Ward 2), Brian Botterill (Ward 3), Bill Tonita (Ward 4), Glen Lawrence (Ward 7), and Katie Berghofer (Ward 8.). This leaves rural Wards 5 and 6 as open races.


Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Incumbent Mayor Don Scott is retiring after serving one term as Mayor. In 2017, he won the open seat vacated by longtime Mayor Melissa Blake with 69% of the vote. Three candidates are running for the open seat this time around, including incumbent Councillors Mike Allen and Verna Murphy.

The RMWB is another specialized municipality, and as such the council is elected from wards which are distributed between the urban and rural areas. In their 2018 census, the RMWB recorded that out of their population of just under 112,000, approximately 68% lived in the Urban Service Area of Fort McMurray, 3% lived in the municipality's assorted rural communities, and the remaining 29% lived in temporary workers' dwellings, which are mostly work camps at oilsands project sites outside of the Urban Service Area and the rural communities. I mention this because although it may seem that the rural population is highly overrepresented on the Council compared to the urban population, the rural councillors collectively have over 30,000 constituents living at least part-time on worksites in their wards.

Anyways, there are 10 Councillor positions on the RMWB Council. Ward 1 covers the Fort McMurray Urban Service Area and elects 6 Councillors, while the rest of the municipality is divided between Ward 2, which elects 2 Councillors, and Ward 3 and 4, which each elect 1 Councillor. 24 candidates are running for the 6 Councillor positions from Ward 1, including 2 of the 6 incumbents: Keith McGrath and Jeffrey Peddle. 3 candidates are running for the 2 Councillor positions from Ward 2, including 1 of the 2 incumbents: Claris Voyageur. In Ward 3, incumbent Councillor Sheila Lalonde is running for re-election, facing one opponent. And in Ward 4, incumbent Councillor Jane Stroud (who ran for the provincial NDP in the 2018 by-election and 2019 general election) has been acclaimed for another term.

[Njall]

New Polls!!

Spadina Strategies released a new poll today on the Edmonton Mayor's race. The IVR poll had a sample size of 529 with a margin of error of 4.26%, 19 time out of 20:

Amarjeet Sohi: 32.3%
Mike Nickel: 26.4%
Kim Krushell: 14.9%
Michael Oshry: 8.9%
Cheryll Watson: 3.5%
Undecided: 14.0%


Meanwhile, in the latest Viewpoint Alberta research brief from Common Ground, a research project out of the University of Alberta, the online survey of 1,204 Albertans between Sept 21 and Oct 6 had the following results for the equalization referendum:

Yes: 43%
No: 26%
Don't know: 28%
Won't vote: 3%

The linked Twitter thread has some further demographic breakdowns. The tl;dr, as expected, is that support for the referendum is higher amongst older Albertans, rural residents, those who vote for parties on the right of the political spectrum, and those who ideologically identify on the right of the political spectrum.

[Njall]

Leger has released a new poll of voters in Edmonton and Calgary, which is handy in part because we can compare the Mayoral polling figures from their July 2021 polls. Each city's poll had samples of just over 500 voters, and the poll was conducted online between October 8th and 11th.



Calgary Results

Mayor (Change from July 2021)
Jyoti Gondek: 27% (+15)
Jeromy Farkas: 24% (+4)
Jeff Davison: 11% (+6)
Brad Field: 6% (+4)
Jan Damery: 4% (+2)
Other candidates: 8% (-1)
Undecided: 17% (-29)

Amongst 2017 Nenshi voters, Gondek gets 44% compared to 10% for Farkas and 11% for Davison.

Gondek leads amongst voters aged 18-54, while Farkas leads amongst those aged 55+ (note: the 55+ age group recorded 0% undecided in the poll, compared to around 20% undecided under 55).

Gondek and Davison see roughly equal support from men and women, while Farkas is at 31% with men compared to 18% with Women. 23% of women are undecided compared to 11% of men.

49% of Calgary voters say that they're more likely to support a Mayoral candidate who opposes the policies of Jason Kenney and the UCP, while 21% are more likely to support a Mayoral candidate who supports the policies of Jason Kenney and the UCP.


Equalization Referendum
Yes: 50%
No: 34%
Unsure: 16%


Daylight Savings Time Referendum
Yes: 48%
No: 44%
Unsure: 8%


Water Fluoridation Plebiscite
Yes: 54%
No: 32%
Unsure: 14%



Edmonton Results

Mayor (Change from July 2021)
Amarjeet Sohi: 34% (+5)
Mike Nickel: 16% (+6)
Kim Krushell: 12% (+7)
Michael Oshry: 6% (+3)
Cheryll Watson: 5% (+3)
Other candidates: 4% (+4)
Undecided: 20% (-23)

Amongst 2017 Iveson voters, Sohi gets 47% compared to 9% for Nickel and 13% for Krushell.

Sohi leads in all age groups, although his margin is widest amongst voters aged 18-34 (40% compared to Nickel at 13%). Krushell and Oshry, both former Councillors, also see their support increase with older age groups.

Sohi and Nickel don't have notable gender gaps in support. Like in Calgary, many more women than men report that they are undecided.

60% of Edmonton voters say that they're more likely to support a Mayoral candidate who opposes the policies of Jason Kenney and the UCP, while 14% are more likely to support a Mayoral candidate who supports the policies of Jason Kenney and the UCP.


Equalization Referendum
Yes: 33%
No: 41%
Unsure: 26%


Daylight Savings Time Referendum
Yes: 47%
No: 42%
Unsure: 11%

[Hatman 🍁]

Will be interesting to see what the geographic patterns will be for the DST referendum. I suspect there will be a rural urban divide.

[Njall]

Jeromy Farkas has issued a last-minute appeal for supporters of Jeff Davison and Brad Field to strategically vote for him in order to stop Jyoti Gondek from becoming Mayor. I'm biased, but it seems like a bit of a desperate tactic:

https://twitter.com/JeromyYYC/status/1448828176977694720?s=20

[DL]

I'm amused that Farkas tries to call Gondek "far left" when if anything she is a centre-right Alberta PC type whose voting record on Calgary city council was not that different Farkas's. From what I hear progressives in Calgary are holding their noses and supporting her only as a "lesser of two evils"

In other news far-right city councillor Sean Chu was exposed on the news today as having been charged with sexual assault of a 16 year old girl...election day is Monday   

[Njall]

Here's the article on the Sean Chu allegation, for context


Also, unsurprisingly, both Jeff Davison and Brad Field released statements today condemning Farkas' call for strategic voting.

[Njall]

I'm amused that Farkas tries to call Gondek "far left" when if anything she is a centre-right Alberta PC type whose voting record on Calgary city council was not that different Farkas's. From what I hear progressives in Calgary are holding their noses and supporting her only as a "lesser of two evils"

I dunno, I know a fair amount of progressives in Calgary who are enthusiastically supporting her. She's certainly not a New Democrat by any means, and would probably self-describe as a fiscal conservative, but that same description would also apply to Nenshi. And as far as voting records go, the Calgary Herald posted this handy infographic of some of the key votes Council made this term. Her record is the same as "union-endorsed progressive" (in the words of Common Sense Calgary) Councillor Gian-Carlo Carra. And Farkas' record stands alone from anyone's.

[Njall]

The polls have now closed across the province. Municipal results should roll in throughout the night. We may not know the results of the provincial votes until October 26th though, as municipalities have up until the 25th to report their results to the province.

[Njall]

Calgary is using automatic voting tabulators and so results are coming in fast. With 122/259 tabulators reporting, Gondek is beating Farkas by a 45%-29% margin.

[Njall]

I can't get into more detail due to data tracking for a campaign, but overall, progressive candidates are over performing across the board in Calgary, though not in all Wards. Wards 7 and 9 are outliers on that point at the moment.

[Njall]

Very quickly, I can just report that the Calgary and Edmonton mayoral elections have been called for the progressive candidates, Jyoti Gondek and Amarjeet Sohi, respectively.

[adma]

Very quickly, I can just report that the Calgary and Edmonton mayoral elections have been called for the progressive candidates, Jyoti Gondek and Amarjeet Sohi, respectively.

Well, Gondek's outperforming polls *could* have been foretold, insofar as it continues a Calgary pattern of openly right-of-centre mayoral candidates sputtering out short of the finish line.  I mean, you could tell that Farkas was doomed the moment he started scare-tacticing about the so-called far-left...

[Benjamin Frank]

Were any former NDP MLAs elected to anything (assuming that any ran for anything.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Were any former NDP MLAs elected to anything (assuming that any ran for anything.)

AFAIK the only former NDP MLA to run for anything was Annie McKitrick in Strathcona County. She finished 4th in her mayoral run.

[Njall]

Were any former NDP MLAs elected to anything (assuming that any ran for anything.)

AFAIK the only former NDP MLA to run for anything was Annie McKitrick in Strathcona County. She finished 4th in her mayoral run.

There were actually two others running: former West Yellowhead MLA Eric Rosendahl ran for Hinton Town Council, and former Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater MLA Colin Piquette ran for Boyle Village Council. Both ended up finishing dead last in their races.

It wasn't a great night for former MLAs all around. Former PC MLA Dave Quest also lost the Strathcona County Mayor's race, and former PC MLA Mike Allen lost his bid to become Mayor of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo. Former Wildrose MLA Wayne Anderson lost his race for Foothills County Council. The only former MLA I'm aware of who actually won was former PC MLA Victor Doerksen, who won the last of 6 at-large positions on Red Deer City Council. Former PC MLA Arno Doerksen (no relation to Victor, I think) will join the Newell County Council, but he was acclaimed to that position.

[mileslunn]

Overall a good night for progressives.  Sohi won big, but Gondek not only won but won big.  Fact both Nickel and Farakas who are both Reform type UCP supporters lost badly suggests that type of conservatism no longer sells in either city and both are fairly progressive although I think a Red Tory could win in both.  Equalization referendum only reported in some municipalities, but my guess is it will be around 60% yes and considering where things were a year ago, that is a big drop.  I think Kenney's unpopularity hurt it as while Trudeau still very unpopular in Alberta, many dislike Kenney even more.  Daylight savings time I am guessing fails, but seems did best in Southern Alberta weaker in Northern but we shall see.

On senate race, no surprise all 3 were Conservatives but my understanding is most progressives don't bother voting in senate races and only Conservatives do as most progressives realize a waste of time since Trudeau is under no obligation to appoint them and he will not.  I think idea of elected senate is more an 80s thing that goes back to Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords and with most Albertans not being born or too young to vote then, I don't think it has same appeal it once did.  Days of Reform Party being popular in Alberta long gone.  The Manning/Harper ideology doesn't have support it once did.  Still popular in Rural Alberta where it seems public has moved even further right, but very unpopular in two cities where most live.

Actually if Liberals and NDP were smart, they should start putting more effort into Alberta as I think hostility to both parties is more regionalism than ideology.  I think many Albertans philosophically identify with both federal parties, but feel they are too hostile to province so either don't vote at all or reluctantly vote Conservative.

Be interesting how Kenney reads this, but I think results along with polls are telling him it would be a good idea for him to take a walk in the snow and resign if he wants the UCP to have a fighting chance.  Not saying with new leader, they would bounce back, but at least they have a chance whereas with Kenney they do not.

[Hatman 🍁]

The DST referendum results are/will be fascinating. As Miles mentioned, there is a north/south divide, probably due to when the Sun rises. I wonder if there will also be a rural/urban divide.

So far, out of the top 10 municipalities, only Edmonton, Wood Buffalo and Airdrie aren't reporting results. Of the 7 remaining municipalities, "No" leads 51.1% to 48.9%. Very close so far, but one would expect Edmonton to be even more against than Calgary, as it's further north.

Municipalities by %No:

St. Albert: 57.7%
Grande Prairie: 56.0%
Strathcona County: 54.3%
Okotoks:* 52.3%
Calgary: 51.5%
--
Stony Plain:* 48.8%
Lethbridge: 48.8%
Camrose:* 46.9% 
Red Deer: 45.4%
Medicine Hat: 38.2%

* Outside the top 10 largest municipalities

[ilikeverin]

Medicine Hat: 38.2%

For reasons that I don't quite know, my great-grandparents moved from Ohio to Medicine Hat in 1914. Their older daughter was born in Canada, but their younger daughter (my grandmother) was born in Detroit in 1919, so I guess things didn't really stick. At one point, I sought advice from the local history museum about why they would have done such a thing; they were baffled, but looked around their records and found some evidence of my great-grandparents' existence in town. By far, my favorite piece of evidence they discovered was their signatures on a petition opposing the adoption of a contentious piece of legislation at the time.

And what was that legislation? The adoption of daylight saving time, of course! Proud to see their spirit still living on in the Medicine Hat of 2021

[adma]

Why 'conservative' Calgary keeps electing progressive mayors

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-progressive-mayors-naheed-jyoti-1.6221389

[MaxQue]

Why 'conservative' Calgary keeps electing progressive mayors

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-progressive-mayors-naheed-jyoti-1.6221389

There is a tendency for cities to elect mayors from the "opposite" side in Canada, I noticied.

[mileslunn]

Calgary may be the most Conservative city for its size, but generally speaking there are few cities its size I can think of that routinely vote for right.  In US, not a single city as big as Calgary voted for Trump.  Oklahoma City was the largest Trump won and barely.  In UK, Boris Johnson won by dominating the smaller cities, otherwise those similar in size to Regina and Saskatoon, but lost the larger cities.  In fact in Europe, Milan and Madrid are only cities I can think of off the top of my head that are larger than Calgary and routinely vote for right wing parties.  In Australia you have Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide which are larger and went for L/NP but at state level Brisbane and Perth went Labor so its a mix. 

So point is cities as large as Calgary don't generally tend to vote for right wing parties.  Main reason Conservatives federally dominate is more regionalism than ideology as many see Liberals and NDP as hostile to province.  I think Liberals have great opportunity to breakthrough in Alberta just as Tories do in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, but both are too much stuck in past they cannot see this opportunity. 

[Geoffrey Howe]

Calgary may be the most Conservative city for its size, but generally speaking there are few cities its size I can think of that routinely vote for right.  In US, not a single city as big as Calgary voted for Trump.  Oklahoma City was the largest Trump won and barely.  In UK, Boris Johnson won by dominating the smaller cities, otherwise those similar in size to Regina and Saskatoon, but lost the larger cities.  In fact in Europe, Milan and Madrid are only cities I can think of off the top of my head that are larger than Calgary and routinely vote for right wing parties.  In Australia you have Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide which are larger and went for L/NP but at state level Brisbane and Perth went Labor so its a mix. 

Back in 1992 the Tories won London quite handily and I'm pretty sure it voted for Thatcher all three times. Of course, that wouldn't happen nowadays; though since 1997 the Conservative vote has been remarkably stable around 35% (essentially in line with the country in 2010/2015).

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories easily won G London in 1983 and (especially) 1987, but 1992 saw a sizeable pro-Labour swing.

[DL]

Calgary may be the most Conservative city for its size, but generally speaking there are few cities its size I can think of that routinely vote for right.  In US, not a single city as big as Calgary voted for Trump.  Oklahoma City was the largest Trump won and barely.  In UK, Boris Johnson won by dominating the smaller cities, otherwise those similar in size to Regina and Saskatoon, but lost the larger cities.  In fact in Europe, Milan and Madrid are only cities I can think of off the top of my head that are larger than Calgary and routinely vote for right wing parties.  In Australia you have Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide which are larger and went for L/NP but at state level Brisbane and Perth went Labor so its a mix. 

So point is cities as large as Calgary don't generally tend to vote for right wing parties.  Main reason Conservatives federally dominate is more regionalism than ideology as many see Liberals and NDP as hostile to province.  I think Liberals have great opportunity to breakthrough in Alberta just as Tories do in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, but both are too much stuck in past they cannot see this opportunity. 

I think Stockholm tends to vote more for the rightwing parties than does the rest of Sweden