Can Florida be the next Ohio?

[Francisco]

A swing state that can convert to a Likely/Safe R state

[Bootes Void]

While it certainly could, I think the states demographics and overall character might prevent it from so

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

If Florida does trend further to the right, it won’t be for the same reasons Ohio did.

[Chips]

Probably not.

[หมูเด้ง]

I think fewer old people being able to afford to retire and the minimum wage raise (which will reduce the numbers of people entirely dependent on their bosses) will limit the R trend. I don’t think there will be an immediate D trend because of how uniquely successful Evangelicals (a Catholic Sunday School teacher told me a lot of Evangelicals and LDS come from Catholics not educated about their faith and there are many here that fit that mold)  have been in Florida’s vulnerable communities. A D shift might happen in 10 years. I can see Florida’s comparative advantage, because of the successful Fight for 15 and steep tax discounts on businesses,  shifting to industries that depend on less vulnerable and industrially docile  populations. This is why Texas is shifting D. They are becoming more dependent on computers and banks than mining companies.

Then again, it might become Ohio and probably has a better chance of ending up like Missouri than Colorado for the simple fact that Republicans are relying so much on non-traditional Republicans and non-traditional voters from places that don’t really look that Republican.

The places right now that look Republican but vote Democratic are dwindling. Maybe Vermont? Iowa got the hint. Trump was very successful in getting places to look Republican to vote Republican but lost because he was decreasingly successful at it. The lack of cultural crossover appeal is hurting Democrats right now. About as much as Republican decline.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

By the 2030’s I’d say so.

[Non Swing Voter]

It certainly could, but probably slower.

I think the main reasons Florida is trending Republican = a constant stream of retirees, especially from other areas of the south moving down there and a highly polarized electorate where the GOP base is more unified and has more consistent voting patterns.  It's probably one of the few states where the average Republican voter is more educated than the average Democratic voter.

[หมูเด้ง]

It certainly could, but probably slower.

I think the main reasons Florida is trending Republican = a constant stream of retirees, especially from other areas of the south moving down there and a highly polarized electorate where the GOP base is more unified and has more consistent voting patterns.  It's probably one of the few states where the average Republican voter is more educated than the average Democratic voter.

If this trend holds, will declining birth rates ensure this happens in more places where the main demographic driver is the greying of the electorate?

[Del Tachi]

It certainly could, but probably slower.

I think the main reasons Florida is trending Republican = a constant stream of retirees, especially from other areas of the south moving down there and a highly polarized electorate where the GOP base is more unified and has more consistent voting patterns.  It's probably one of the few states where the average Republican voter is more educated than the average Democratic voter.

If this trend holds, will declining birth rates ensure this happens in more places where the main demographic driver is the greying of the electorate?

Yeah, this has always been a great rebuff to the Democrats’ “demographics is destiny” fantasy:  the electorate is greying quicker than it is browning.  Each national election sees the oldest ever electorate, and the upper-bound on this is pretty much limitless

[หมูเด้ง]

It certainly could, but probably slower.

I think the main reasons Florida is trending Republican = a constant stream of retirees, especially from other areas of the south moving down there and a highly polarized electorate where the GOP base is more unified and has more consistent voting patterns.  It's probably one of the few states where the average Republican voter is more educated than the average Democratic voter.

If this trend holds, will declining birth rates ensure this happens in more places where the main demographic driver is the greying of the electorate?

Yeah, this has always been a great rebuff to the Democrats’ “demographics is destiny” fantasy:  the electorate is greying quicker than it is browning.  Each national election sees the oldest ever electorate, and the upper-bound on this is pretty much limitless

Do you believe that you will see the time when people age differently than today? I can this in the same light as the GOP adapting to the browning (or simply waiting for it to be irrelevant). That appears to be the Republican strategy, anyways. Don’t chase voters who are afraid of you, try to get nonvoters involved on your side. That is what Obama did.

[Skill and Chance]

It certainly could, but probably slower.

I think the main reasons Florida is trending Republican = a constant stream of retirees, especially from other areas of the south moving down there and a highly polarized electorate where the GOP base is more unified and has more consistent voting patterns.  It's probably one of the few states where the average Republican voter is more educated than the average Democratic voter.

If this trend holds, will declining birth rates ensure this happens in more places where the main demographic driver is the greying of the electorate?

Yeah, this has always been a great rebuff to the Democrats’ “demographics is destiny” fantasy:  the electorate is greying quicker than it is browning.  Each national election sees the oldest ever electorate, and the upper-bound on this is pretty much limitless

This is also a great argument that the long term future for Dems is in the South if they can just stop getting out ahead of their skis on cultural issues.  They've already had some success playing up the monogamy side of social conservatism now and then (JBE over Vitter, Doug Jones over Roy Moore).

On the other hand, the story of 2020 was Dems winning back just enough old people.  Millennials got notably more conservative.

[หมูเด้ง]

It certainly could, but probably slower.

I think the main reasons Florida is trending Republican = a constant stream of retirees, especially from other areas of the south moving down there and a highly polarized electorate where the GOP base is more unified and has more consistent voting patterns.  It's probably one of the few states where the average Republican voter is more educated than the average Democratic voter.

If this trend holds, will declining birth rates ensure this happens in more places where the main demographic driver is the greying of the electorate?

Yeah, this has always been a great rebuff to the Democrats’ “demographics is destiny” fantasy:  the electorate is greying quicker than it is browning.  Each national election sees the oldest ever electorate, and the upper-bound on this is pretty much limitless

This is also a great argument that the long term future for Dems is in the South if they can just stop getting out ahead of their skis on cultural issues.  They've already had some success playing up the monogamy side of social conservatism now and then (JBE over Vitter, Doug Jones over Roy Moore).

On the other hand, the story of 2020 was Dems winning back just enough old people.  Millennials got notably more conservative.

Again, maybe it was COVID but maybe they have recovered economically.