Danish Local Elections November 16th 2021

[Jens]

Læsø – Tossup
I just love tiny islands and especially the shenanigans that happens. The council have 9 members, the smallest in Denmark, and last time Venstre won 4 mandates, almost a majority and quite the result for then mayor Tobias Birch Johansen. But the rest of the council said: “never mind that, let us make Karsten Nielsen from Dansk Folkeparti mayor.” A few days after the election Venstre also joined the agreement to keep the peace at this tiny island of 1.764 inhabitants.
I have absolutely no idea whether Nielsen will keep this, but I doubt it. The mayoralty has changed in the last three elections!

DPP has lost their only mayor in the country as Karsten Nielsen has defected to the Liberals just months before the election. I have no real idea about how popular he is on the island, but considering the Liberals' result last time and Nielsen's decision to choose the Liberals, I will guess that they are now significant favourites.

I agree. Læsø is likely Venstre now. Venstre has chosed Nielsen as their lead, so I guess that means that he is doing a good enough job. But we’ll see if Venstre keeps its newly aquired majority in the election
Nielsen is also brutally honest about his reasons. He wants to stay on the Council and the chances are better with Venstre.
https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/strategisk-partiskifte-fraroever-df-sin-eneste-borgmester?

[Jens]

I have written an article in Altinget (the main news site for politicians et al in DK). Its a reply to the Mulvad & Buch article I shared here earlier. So nothing new since I critiqued it back then, but a chance to practise your Danish (or use Google translate ;-) )
https://www.altinget.dk/christiansborg/artikel/nationale-tendenser-har-kun-begraenset-betydning-i-kommunalvalget

[Jens]

Frederiksberg
Yet another candidate for Mayor.
Jan E. Jørgensen, long time (and sole) cllr and MP for Venstre has announced that he is candidate for Mayor, bringing the number of potentiale mayor candidates to four (Konservative, Socialdemokratiet, Radikale and Venstre).
Has he a chance? Perhaps. If Socialdemokratiet and Radikale fail to agree on who should take over the Mayoralty, if the Right loses its majority, Radikale might support Jørgensen, but he is an outsider and it will take som serious chenanigans if Jørgensen should become mayor.

Fun fact. Jan E. Jørgensen is married to Jane Jørgensen :-D
https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/art8234048/S%C3%A5dan-kan-denne-mand-kuppe-de-konservative-og-blive-Frederiksbergs-nye-borgmester

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Frederiksberg
Yet another candidate for Mayor.
Jan E. Jørgensen, long time (and sole) cllr and MP for Venstre has announced that he is candidate for Mayor, bringing the number of potentiale mayor candidates to four (Konservative, Socialdemokratiet, Radikale and Venstre).
Has he a chance? Perhaps. If Socialdemokratiet and Radikale fail to agree on who should take over the Mayoralty, if the Right loses its majority, Radikale might support Jørgensen, but he is an outsider and it will take som serious chenanigans if Jørgensen should become mayor.

Fun fact. Jan E. Jørgensen is married to Jane Jørgensen :-D
https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/art8234048/S%C3%A5dan-kan-denne-mand-kuppe-de-konservative-og-blive-Frederiksbergs-nye-borgmester

Would he have to give up his Folketing seat if elected mayor?

[Diouf]

Frederiksberg
Yet another candidate for Mayor.
Jan E. Jørgensen, long time (and sole) cllr and MP for Venstre has announced that he is candidate for Mayor, bringing the number of potentiale mayor candidates to four (Konservative, Socialdemokratiet, Radikale and Venstre).
Has he a chance? Perhaps. If Socialdemokratiet and Radikale fail to agree on who should take over the Mayoralty, if the Right loses its majority, Radikale might support Jørgensen, but he is an outsider and it will take som serious chenanigans if Jørgensen should become mayor.

Fun fact. Jan E. Jørgensen is married to Jane Jørgensen :-D
https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/art8234048/S%C3%A5dan-kan-denne-mand-kuppe-de-konservative-og-blive-Frederiksbergs-nye-borgmester

Would he have to give up his Folketing seat if elected mayor?

No, there is no requirement to do so. Some parties have internal rules against being a councillor and a MP at the same time, but Liberals are not one of them. But I'm sure he will leave parliament; I can't remember anyone in recent times being both a mayor and a MP at the same time. The municipalities are so big that is more than a full time job to be mayor, and similarly in parliament no party is so big that they can have a lot of MPs without much to do. Also the media scrutiny of someone who tried that probably be quite intense. Previously, it has happened. The most famous example I remember is Erhard Jakobsen, who was mayor in Gladsaxe for several years while being a MP for the Social Democrats. He only quit as mayor after starting his own party Centrumdemokraterne and causing the 1973 earthquake election. In their heyday, the Social Democrats could easily have 70+ MPs, so I believe it was quite common for mayors or trade union leaders to be a MP without having to do much legislative work.

[Jens]

Regional elections

Region Sjælland – Lean A
Region Sjælland is the only region, where both Venstre and Socialdemokratiet has had the chairmanship. Currently Heino Knudsen from Socialdemokratiet is chairman, and he is slight favorite to keep it. Venstre has the same lead candidate as last time, Jacob Jensen and he needs to keep the rightwing parties together. I 2017 Knudsen managed to bring Dansk Folkeparti and Liberal Alliance into his coalition along with SF and Enhedslisten (who subsequently got kicked out because of some unfortunate things, one of their councilors said) and he will probably try to keep especially Dansk Folkeparti in the coalition. The negotiations could be delayed depending on the result in Kalundborg. If Peter Jacobsen from Dansk Folkeparti has a decent chance to become mayor there, it will most likely take some time before Dansk Folkeparti can negotiate properly. One interesting thing is that Jensen has the support of Radikale, unlike most other local elections, where Radikale support the left.

Interesting development in Region Sjælland. Dansk Folkeparti has dumped their current moderate leadership. Peter Jacobsen wasn’t running as lead and everything pointed at Gitte Simoni, current leader of the parliamentary group, taking over. But the members chose otherwise and elected current local party chairman i Roskilde, Jan Herskov. Herskov has been a member of most rightwing parties and is a former cllr for Venstre i Roskilde. I don’t know Herskov, but it looks like current regional chairman, Heino Knudsen, can’t count on the support of Dansk Folkeparti in the same way as if Simoni had won. Simoni ended up as number 10 on the list of Dansk Folkeparti, so her support in the party was very weak. Current leader, Jacobsen, got the number 6 spot on the list. Not very impressive.
Region Sjælland is stil lead A, but much closer to a tossup now.
https://www.tv2east.dk/region-sjaelland/dfer-vraget-som-spidskandidat-til-regionsraadet

[JimJamUK]

Jens Your coverage of the large number of municipalities is very informative and detailed. Would you be able to explain the electoral system for Danish local elections? I gather from your posts that parties like the Social Democrats are much stronger in local government than they are in the national legislature. Is this due to greater local support, a different electoral system, or something else?

[Diouf]

The electoral system is pure D'Hondt with 1, 2, 3 divisors. So it's slightly more favourable to the bigger parties than the largest remainder system used for national elections. In local and regional elections, the parties can and mostly do make electoral alliances, which means that their votes are pooled for the first D'hondt distribution of seats.
The Social Democrats and Liberals often do somewhat better than at national elections and hold most of the mayoral positions, with Conservatives also being a significant player in some places. The three old parties have advantages of strong, local organisations in all parts of the country. Also they are often in a position to benefit from incumbency.

[Diouf]

Regarding the electoral system at local and regional elections, two electoral scholars today recommended that the method is changed, so that the Sainte-Laguë Method is used instead of D'Hondt, and that the possibility of making electoral alliances is removed. They say that both aspects help the bigger parties to a larger share of seats than "deserved". D'Hondt in itself helps bigger parties. The electoral alliances were then meant to help the smaller parties to get a chance to get around that disadvantage. However, the scholars argue that in fact in often helps the bigger parties even more, because electoral alliances tend to be formed around the big parties and not just as alliances of small parties. Thereby, the big parties, mostly Liberals and Social Democrats, benefit from the D'Hondt Method twice, in that they benefit both in the round where seats are distributed between electoral alliances, and in the round where seats are distributed inside the electoral alliances where the big party will often be much larger than its alliance partners.

The Minister of Housing and the Interior, Kaare Dybvad, says there are no plans to change the system.

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/ny-forskning-afsloerer-absurde-skaevheder-i-kommunal-valgmatematik

[Jens]

Frie Grønne, the breakout from Alternativet has decided not to run in the local elections and focus on the national elections. They lack a nationwide local organization and would probably only stand a chance in the bygger cities anyway. This increases the chances for Alternativet for keeping a few mandates around the country.
 https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/frie-groenne-dropper-kommunalvalg-profil-vil-i-folketinget

[Diouf]

Skive – Lean V
Peder Christian Kirkegaard narrowly won last time when he managed to persuade Radikale to support him. The question is whether Radikale will support him this time or even gain representation Once upon a time Skive was a bastion of Radikal strength but these days, Radikale has little support among smaller farmers (of which there is few left anyway). A local list run by former Socialdemokratiet mayor Per Jeppesen might give Socialdemokratiet and their lead candidate Peder Christiensen some problems.

In Skive, both of the major parties, Liberals and Social Democrats, will run on their own this time without any electoral alliances. So their internal battle will be really important. Last time around, Liberals, DPP, Conservatives and LA ran together. This time it seems LA won't even be able to run candidates, while Conservatives and DPP form an electoral alliance. The alliance will win at least one seat, the question is for who if it's only one. DPP got 7.9% last time but their popular lead candidate is retiring. The Conservatives only got 2.2% in 2017, but are booming on the national level. New Right is running this time and will hope to steal much of the former DPP vote.
On the left, SPP and Red-Greens are running an alliance while the Alternative aren't running. Last time Social Democrats had an alliance with the Social Liberals, which secured a seat for the latter. A seat that proved decisive, and they used it to secure another term for the Liberal mayor. Therefore Social Democrats don't want to deal with them again. Instead, the Social Liberals will likely form an centrist alliance with the local list Skive-Listen. The Social Liberal current councillor is not running again, so even with the alliance they might not get enough support.
Finally, another local list is running, the Freedom List, whose lead candidate is slightly known locally for being behind the proposal about impeaching Mette Frederiksen which gathered enough votes to be discussed in parliament. It seems like a protest list + a healthy dose of covid denial; the lead candidate doesn't believe politicians know about the every day life, e.g. in the jobcenter, and wants to stop spending money on local art projects. Interesting to see whether it will gain traction.

The campaign hasn't started and there's no polling yet. An early guess could be Liberals and Social Democrats fairly equal, the left wing alliance slightly ahead of K+DPP, New Right just getting in. Skive-Listen ending with the 2-3 decisive seats.

[Diouf]

Viborg – Lead V
This is one, Konservative really wants. Søren Pape Poulsen, the current national leader of Konservative, was Mayor of Viborg before he went to the national stage and his successor, Torsten Nielsen got and very impressive election in 2017 with more that 7.000 personal votes and a gain of one mandate. But it wasn’t enough, because Socialdemokratiet decided to support Ulrik Wilbæk from Venstre.
Wilbæk is probably the most well-known mayor in Denmark, not because of his current occupation, but because he has coached both the female and male national handball teams, winning 1 Olympic gold, 1 World Cup gold and 4 European gold medals.
Socialdemokratiet would also like to retake the Mayoralty, but has the weakest of the candidates in Niels Dueholm, who only got one tenth of the personal votes of Wilbæk and Nielsen. But in the end, Socialdemokratiet probably will hold the decisive mandates.

Of the three big parties in Viborg, only the Liberals has formed an electoral alliance. They have joined the DPP in an alliance, while both the Conservatives and Social Democrats are running alone. So this could perhaps move a seat to the Liberals once everything is counted. Two of the other alliances are likely to mean a big chance of more smaller parties in the City Council this time. Social Liberals, Christian Democrats and Alternative have formed an electoral alliance, which means the one of them with the highest votes is very likely to get a seat. Something neither of them had probably secured on their own. Liberal Alliance and New Right are also allies, which should give a seat for one of them, most likely the latter. Finally, SPP and Red-Green Alliance have also formed an electoral alliance; both of them are already represented in the council.

[Diouf]

Holstebro – Safe A
Long time mayor, H. C. Østerby decided to stand for reelection, despite being 65 years old (I know, a youngster compared to the US Senate 😉 ) which made the municipality safe for Socialdemokratiet.

In Holstebro, the non-Social Democratic left(Social Liberals, SPP, Alternative & Red-Green Alliance) is again running in an electoral alliance, which should at least secure the three seats the parties won in 2017, and perhaps add one. The Social Democrats are alone, and while big favourites to retain the mayorship could lose a seat again this time due to the electoral alliances. The right wing parties are split in two electoral alliances. One with Conservatives, Liberal Alliance and Christian Democrats, and one with Liberals, DPP and New Right. The electoral alliance should help Conservatives win at least one more than the single seat last time, and then it's one of the tests of how much they can gain from a Liberal party without an incumbent mayor.

[Diouf]

Struer – Tossup
Niels Viggo Lynghøj is retirering which opens a door for Venstre and Mads Jakobsen. This might be one bright spot for Venstre on what looks like an otherwise dark night for Venstre.

The electoral alliances and candidates here seems to favour the Liberals. Firstly, this time they are in an alliance with Liberal Alliance and Conservatives. That alone would have won the Liberals the decisive seat last time around. Also the DPP split, which meant wasted votes and bad blood last time, is not running this time. And DPP is in an alliance with New Right, which should ensure representation for one of them. Social Democrats are on their own, while Social Liberals and SPP run together.

[Diouf]

Herning – Safe V
Dorte West has this one. Venstre might lose a little, but nothing will change in the city of entrepreneurs on the moorlands.

The first local poll I have noticed is from Herning, where Liberals are down but just manages to retain their absolute majority. A new breakaway local list of three current councillors is winning a seat here, while the covid-deniers in the Freedom Party is not finding much fertile ground. An ugly result for DPP, which could be repeated in many areas if current national polls are correct. SPP on this result wins two seats due to the electoral alliance with the Red-Greens. The Conservative lead candidate is former MP Per Ørum. He was elected into parliament in 2005, but had to leave the Conservatives after drunk driving in 2010. He joined the Christian Democrats and towards the end of the term had the decisive seat in parliament keeping the centre-right government in power and necessary for its budgets. Christian Democrats tried to benefit from his role by making him leader, but the party only won 0.8% in the 2011 election. He left the party and tried to start his own party, the Democratic Party in 2012, but that never came even close to running for parliament and was disbanded in 2015. He then joined the Conservative Party again.

Jysk Analyse for TV Midt/Vest.

Liberals 47.6% (-8.0%) 16 seats (-3)
Social Democrats 18.1% (+1.3%) 6 (+1)
Conservatives 7.3% (+3.1%) 3 (+1)
Social Liberals 5.5% (+0.5%) 1 (=)
SPP 4.4% (+0.1%) 2 (+1)
New Right 4.1% (+3.6%) 1 (+1)
Christian Democrats 3.4% (+0.2%) 1 (=)
Citizens' List 3.1% (new) 1 (new)
DPP 2.4% (-3.3%) 0 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 1.5% (-0.7%) 0 (-1)
Liberal Alliance 1.4% (-0.1%) 0 (=)
Freedom List 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

[Diouf]

Bornholm – Likely A
Long time social democratic mayor Winni Grosbøll retired at the start of the year and Thomas Thors, who was mayor from 2003 to 2005 took over again. Grosbøll was extremely popular but wanted to do something other than being mayor, became CEO of Friluftsrådet and moved in with her boyfriend in Cph (across the street from me :-D ). Thors has just been elected as the lead for the election, and will probably keep the power (but has a history of losing the mayoralty in spectacular fashion)

A quite astounding poll from Bornholm. Made by Jysk Analyse for TV2 Bornholm.
The Social Democrats halved, and the Red-Greens as clearly the biggest party. It seems like the decisive factor is the deeply unpopular budget for 2022, which was recently agreed with an unusually narrow set of parties. Only the Social Democrats and the Liberals made the deal, which cuts quite toughly in some welfare areas while spending a lot of money on buildings, primarily to unite municipial employees at three places instead of their current scattered placement. The red-green deputy mayor Morten Riis has come to be the main spokesperson against the budget, but it has certainly also helped DPPs Rene Danielsson towards keeping the party on a high level. In traditional left-right terms, there is a 12-11 left wing majority, but with the budget in mind I think such a scenario is not as likely. Would be interesting to see whether the Red-Greens would get their first mayor post ever with such a result.

Red-Green Alliance 25.8% (+19.5%) 7 seats (+5)
Social Democrats 17.8% (-16.4%) 4 (-4)
DPP 17.4% (+1.7%) 4 (=)
Liberals 14.0% (-4.6%) 4 (-1)
Conservatives 5.4% (+4.6%) 1 (+1)
SPP 5.2% (+1.7%) 1 (=)
Bornholmerlisten 4.2% (-1.6%) 1 (=)
Christian Democrats 4.1% (-0.1%) 1 (=)
New Right 3.4% (+2.9%) 0 (=)
Social Liberals 1.5% (-1.3%) 0 (=)
Alternative 1.1% (-4.9%) 0 (-1)
Vegan Party 0.1% (new) 0 (new)
Lower Taxes and Duties 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

[Diouf]

Today the campaign officially started as candidates are allowed to put up posters. Below is a picture from Holbæk with the mayor Christina Krzyrosiak setting up her posters.
This also means we will start to have TV debates and hopefully a fair bit of polling as well.

I have made a polling comparison to november 2017 to show the movements on the national level since then. Some giant movements on the right wing side with Conservatives and New Right adding a lot of votes and Liberals, Liberal Alliance and DPP with huge losses. The left wing parties are mostly remarkably similar to their standing in 2017. The only really notable change is Alternative collapsing and SPP gaining ground. Others should mostly be the Moderates, who still haven't officially registered as a party. The combined left and right wing percentages are basically the same with almost a 3% lead for the Red Bloc parties.

Social Democrats 28.4%(+0.1%)
Social Liberals 5.5% (+0.2%)
Conservatives 14.7% (+10.0%)
New Right 6.7% (+4.9%)
SPP 8.3% (+3.3%)
Vegan Party 0.4% (new)
Liberal Alliance 2.7% (-2.7%)
Christian Democrats 1.5% (+0.5%)
DPP 6.6% (-9.6%)
Liberals 12.6% (-7.0%)
Red-Green Alliance 8.0% (-0.1%)
Alternative 0.8% (-3.9%)
Others 4.1% (+3.9%)

[Diouf]

Fredericia – Likely A
The former mayor, Jacob Bjerregaard left the position last year to start as director for a Public Affairs bureau, but before he got the chance to start at his new job, the news broke that he was involved in some nasty corruption. Apparently, he ordered the administration to sell an extremely attractive building lot to him and his wife ahead of another bidder. Not a nice thing, and he lost the job at the PA bureau and is now facing corruption charges. How this will affect the current mayor, Steen Wrist, is to be seen. But Socialdemokratiet will probably loose its majority, but not the mayoralty.
Fredericia seems to collect on colourful mayors. Former mayor, Thomas Banke (Venstre) had a cocaine addiction and some issue with differentiate between his own money and the money of the municipality.

Poll of Fredericia by Jysk Analyse for Fredericia Dagblad.
Social Democrats as expected lose quite a lot after the Bjerregaard scandal, but remains by far the largest party. They no longer have a majority on their own, but with SPP and the Red-Green Alliance, there is still a 12-9 left wing majority.

Social Democrats 44.0% (-10.3%) 10 seats (-3)
Social Liberals 2.0% (+0.8%) 0 (=)
Conservatives 6.5% (+4.1%) 1 (+1)
New Right 4.6% (+3.8%) 1 (+1)
SPP 4.8% (+1.3%) 1 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 1.0% (-0.4%) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 0.7% (+0.4%) 0 (=)
DPP 9.5% (-2.7%) 2 (-1)
Free Danes 0.3% (new) 0 (new)
Liberals 19.2% (+1.0%) 5 (+1)
Borgerligt Community 0.8% (new) 0 (new)
Red-Green Alliance 6.3% (+2.3%) 1 (=)
Alternative 0.1% (-1.3%) 0 (=)

Silkeborg – Lean A
Another municipality where councilors have been changing parties like crazy! See if you can keep up: Venstre gained two, one from Liberal Alliance and one from Dansk Folkeparti, but also lost two, one to Socialdemokratiet and one to Konservative, SF gained two, one from Alternativet (their sole cllr) and one from Socialdemokratiet, in all 6 councilors who changed party, SF and Konservative being the winners, both doubling their numbers, Socialdemokratiet and Venstre at status quo and Dansk Folkeparti and Liberal Alliance losing out.
All that doesn’t really matter come November. Will Steen Vindum keep the mayoralty? Currently he leads a strange coalition consisting of Venstre, Konservative, Dansk Folkeparti and Radikale and SF. Radikale isn’t that strange but SF is a bit unusual, and before the councilor from Alternativet changes parties to SF, he was also a part of the coalition. Radikale and Alternativet held the decisive votes and choose to support Vindum. Because of all the party changing shenanigans, the leftwing parties has the majority now and I think they will keep that after the election, making Helle Gade the new mayor. But if Radikale holds the decisive mandate, anything can happen!

Poll by Jysk Analyse for TV2 Østjylland, TV MidtVest og Midtjyllands Avis.
The Liberals and DPP fall back, but Conservatives + New Right's gains are of a similar size. This means we have a similar scenario as last time. 15 blue seats, 14 red seats and two decisive seats in the middle. Last time it was a union with a Social Liberal and an Alternative, but this time it looks like Social Liberals will take both of these seats. The Social Liberal lead candidate Johan Brødsgaard has announced himself as candidate for mayor. That might not happen, but on this result, he would certainly get a lot of influence again.

Social Democrats 29.8% (-0.2%) 10 (=)
Social Liberals 5.4% (+1.2%) 2 (+1)
Conservatives 8.8% (+4.4%) 3 (+2)
New Right 3.4% (new) 1 (new)
SPP 6.3% (-0.9%) 2 (=)
Liberal Alliance 3.3% (-0.3%) 1 (=)
Christian Democrats 1.4% (+0.5%) 0 (=)
DPP 4.1% (-2.1%) 1 (-1)
Liberals 28.4% (-4.4%) 9 (-2)
Participation List 0.5% (+0.1%) 0 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 7.1% (+1.6%) 2 (=)
Alternative 1.5% (-0.9%) 0 (-1)

[Jens]

Region Nordjylland

Læsø – Tossup
I just love tiny islands and especially the shenanigans that happens. The council have 9 members, the smallest in Denmark, and last time Venstre won 4 mandates, almost a majority and quite the result for then mayor Tobias Birch Johansen. But the rest of the council said: “never mind that, let us make Karsten Nielsen from Dansk Folkeparti mayor.” A few days after the election Venstre also joined the agreement to keep the peace at this tiny island of 1.764 inhabitants.
I have absolutely no idea whether Nielsen will keep this, but I doubt it. The mayoralty has changed in the last three elections!

NEWS from Læsø - and they are fun! Current Mayor Karsten Nielsen, who earlier this year changed parties to Venstre to increase his chances for reelection (sorry about not reporting about it) is not running for reelection. The reason is the so called Shedgate (skursagen) where the municipal director, Peter Pietras, apparently lived in a illegal shed in connection to his summerhouse on Læsø. 
Former Mayor Tobias Birch Johansen is the new lead candidate for Venstre. I’ll probably call this a likely V now.

https://www.tv2nord.dk/kommunalvalg/laesoes-kommunaldirektoer-fritstilles-ovenpaa-sag-om-ulovligt-opfoert-skur

https://www.tv2nord.dk/kommunalvalg/karsten-nielsen-traekker-sig-som-spidskandidat-paa-laesoe

[Jens]

Region Nordjylland

Mariagerfjord – Lean V
Mogens Jespersen has a fair chance to stay mayor. Socialdemokratiet is running the same lead candidate Leif Skaarup, and he needs to move a sizable rightwing majority. But it is not impossible. Mariagerfjord had a Socialdemokratiet mayor until 2014.

Some older news from Mariagerfjord. A group from Venstre led by cllr Svend Madsen left the party back in August in protest against the treatment of former Minister of Integration Inger Støjberg internally in Venstre. Venstre voted for the indictment of Støjberg in the case of illegal separation of underaged married immigrants (looooong story)
It will probably have little local effect since the new Mariagerfjord Listen has agreed to an electoral alliance with Venstre and still is supporting the Venstre Mayor
https://ugeavisen.dk/mariageravis/artikel/opsplitning-af-parti-ryster-ikke-venstreborgmester-vi-arbejder-som-om-intet-har-%C3%A6ndret-sig-p%C3%A5-christiansborg

[Jens]

New poll in Copenhagen. Enhedslisten (Ø) largest party!

A - Socialdemokratiet: 20,6 % 11 mandates (-4)
B - Radikale: 10,4 % 6 mandates (+1)
C - Konservative: 10,1 % 6 mandates (+3)
D - Nye Borgerlige: 3,7 % 2 mandates (+2)
F - SF: 13,3 % 8 mandates (+3)
G - Veganerpartiet: 0,5 % 0 mandates
I - Liberal Alliance: 2,8 % 1 mandate (-1)
K - Kristendemokraterne: 0,8 % 0 mandates
O - Dansk Folkeparti: 2,3 % 1 mandate (-2)
V - Venstre: 9,0 % 6 mandates (+1)
Ø - Enhedslisten: 22,3 % 13 mandates (+2)
Å - Alternativet: 2,3 % 1 mandates (-5)
Others: 2,0 %

There polls are famously inaccurate, so take them for what they are...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

New poll in Copenhagen. Enhedslisten (Ø) largest party!

A - Socialdemokratiet: 20,6 % 11 mandates (-4)
B - Radikale: 10,4 % 6 mandates (+1)
C - Konservative: 10,1 % 6 mandates (+3)
D - Nye Borgerlige: 3,7 % 2 mandates (+2)
F - SF: 13,3 % 8 mandates (+3)
G - Veganerpartiet: 0,5 % 0 mandates
I - Liberal Alliance: 2,8 % 1 mandate (-1)
K - Kristendemokraterne: 0,8 % 0 mandates
O - Dansk Folkeparti: 2,3 % 1 mandate (-2)
V - Venstre: 9,0 % 6 mandates (+1)
Ø - Enhedslisten: 22,3 % 13 mandates (+2)
Å - Alternativet: 2,3 % 1 mandates (-5)
Others: 2,0 %

There polls are famously inaccurate, so take them for what they are...

Yes, I remember Enhedslisten were predicted to come first in Copenhagen last time too...

[Diouf]

Yes, I remember Enhedslisten were predicted to come first in Copenhagen last time too...

Although, as I recall that was mostly in polls quite far out from the election. The polls closer to the election showed a Social Democratic lead, although narrower than the relatively clear difference at the end (27.6% - 18.4%).

If I was to make an argument for why they will hold up better this time it's primarily candidate quality. Their lead candidate last time, Ninna Hedeager Olsen, had very little experience and performed quite poorly. This time they are running experienced ex-MP Line Barfoed. And conversely the Social Democrats aren't running an incumbent mayor as lead candidate this time, although Sophie Hæstorp Andersen as the leader of the Capital Region is a familiar name.
Another point in their favour is the collapse of the Alternative, who won 10.5% in 2017. Those voters should be more likely to go for the Red-Greens (and SPP).

[Jens]

Yes, I remember Enhedslisten were predicted to come first in Copenhagen last time too...

Although, as I recall that was mostly in polls quite far out from the election. The polls closer to the election showed a Social Democratic lead, although narrower than the relatively clear difference at the end (27.6% - 18.4%).

If I was to make an argument for why they will hold up better this time it's primarily candidate quality. Their lead candidate last time, Ninna Hedeager Olsen, had very little experience and performed quite poorly. This time they are running experienced ex-MP Line Barfoed. And conversely the Social Democrats aren't running an incumbent mayor as lead candidate this time, although Sophie Hæstorp Andersen as the leader of the Capital Region is a familiar name.
Another point in their favour is the collapse of the Alternative, who won 10.5% in 2017. Those voters should be more likely to go for the Red-Greens (and SPP).

I agree with Diouf. Barfoed is a much stronger candidate and quite the new thing for Enhedslisten to bring in what is basically an outsider. But Hedeager has really showed that the Enhedslisten bench in Cph is very weak for such a high profile position. One thing that surprises me is that the Socialdemocratic machine hasn’t attacted her yet. I remember back in ‘09 where the polls showed that SF was hitting 30 % i Cph and suddenly there was some rather nasty attacks on Bo Asmus Kjeldgaard, the lead for SF.

[Diouf]

Hedensted – Tossup
Venstre looked like they had it in the bag last election and that Kirsten Terkilsen could continue as mayor, but it was payback time for Dansk Folkeparti, who was left out of the agreement in 2013. Led by MP Hans Kristian Skibby, Dansk Folkeparti threw its weight behind Kasper Glyngø and to make the alliance even stranger, the sole mandate from Kristendemokraterne also joined (along with SF, but that was to be expected). Glyngø needs to with big this time to keep the majoralty, but he has a decent chance especially since Terkilsen isn’t running for reelection. Venstres new lead is Ole Vind, who got a fraction of the votes compared to Terkilsen. Another wildcard is how well (or more likely bad) Dansk Folkeparti will do. DF will probably lose votes to Nye Borgerlige if they are running. We’ll see about that. 

The Social Democrat + DPP + Christian Democrats + SPP combination, who last time had a majority of 14 seats, is on 13 here. So very close whether the same majority could be enough again. Socail Democrats and DPP are in an electoral alliance, which in no way binds the parties after the election, but might indicate that Skibby and DPP have been happy with the cooperation and could very well support the Social Democrats again, although Skibby is also touting himself as a candidate for mayor. SPP will surely support Glyngø again, but the Christian Democrats have said they go to the election with an open mind. And the Christian Democrats could punch above their weight as they have made a clever electoral alliance with the three minor parties, Social Liberals + the two local mini-parties.
Liberals + Conservatives + New Right are also on 13 seats here, so we're not far from them being able to form a majority without having to deal with DPP or Christian Democrats.

Hedensted poll by Jysk Analyse for Horsens Folkeblad

Liberals 35.4% (-4.5%) 10 seats (-2)
Social Democrats. 24.6% (-3.2%) 7 (-1)
DPP 10.2% (-6.3%) 3 (-1)
Conservatives 6.2% (+4.7%) 2 (+2)
New Right 5.5% (new) 1 (new)
Christian Democrats 5.4% (+1.0%) 2 (+1)
SPP 4.0% (+0.1%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 4.0% (+2.0%) 1 (+1)
Social Liberals 2.4% (+1.3%) 0 (=)
Liberal Alliance 1.7% (-0.1%) 0 (-1)
Elevator List 0.3% (new) 0 (new)
Socialconservatives 0.2% (new) 0 (new)
Alternative 0.0% (-1.0%) 0 (=)