Since Ohio isn’t act as swing bellwether states.
What state would be substituted into this “Ohio” role?
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Michigan could have an argument in favor of it because it is the best of the three for aligning its popular-vote margin with the U.S. House.
Wisconsin could have an argument for being the tipping-point state in the consecutive White House party switches of Elections 2016 and 2020.
Pennsylvania could have an argument for failing in between.
They are really working in tandem.
In 2018, when the U.S. House switched to the Democrats, their combined average popular-vote margin was +8.51 vs. the national outcome of +8.56.
Some people on this site want to circle around this. But, they are wasting their time. The best bellwether states nowadays are—listed with their population rank—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Two are Top 10 populous states. Effectively replacing declining and/or former bellwethers—and likewise Top 10 populous states—Florida and Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (with Wisconsin) will be key, for both major U.S. political parties, to shaping victory on the electoral map.
