So which state is the new Ohio?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  So which state is the new Ohio?
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Author Topic: So which state is the new Ohio?  (Read 1188 times)
Neptunium
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« on: May 05, 2021, 12:32:33 AM »

Since Ohio isn’t act as swing bellwether states.

What state would be substituted into this “Ohio” role?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2021, 12:56:27 AM »

Pennsylvania.  It's a state that has like a 2 to 3 point democratic lean just like the national popular vote.

It also has a good mix of big cities, suburbs, exurbs, rural areas.

It's also a state that's probably going to vote with the winner for at least the next few elections.  The only way I see it not voting with the winner is if Democrats flip Texas and lose PA in a fluke.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2021, 07:26:48 PM »

I would say Michigan, but I’d make people from both states angry.
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Chips
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2021, 10:01:24 PM »

PA.
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Socani
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2021, 08:29:57 PM »

I think Wisconsin is more the new Ohio, It's the most reachable state for the GOP from 3 Trump-Biden midwest states but the right democrat can win it.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
slimey56
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2021, 09:47:34 PM »

PA/WI are likely to be the tipping-point states for at least the next couple cycles. Both state have conflicting trends and long term it'll come down to which blinks first.
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DS0816
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2021, 08:41:31 AM »

Since Ohio isn’t act as swing bellwether states.

What state would be substituted into this “Ohio” role?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Michigan could have an argument in favor of it because it is the best of the three for aligning its popular-vote margin with the U.S. House.

Wisconsin could have an argument for being the tipping-point state in the consecutive White House party switches of Elections 2016 and 2020.

Pennsylvania could have an argument for failing in between.

They are really working in tandem.

In 2018, when the U.S. House switched to the Democrats, their combined average popular-vote margin was +8.51 vs. the national outcome of +8.56.

Some people on this site want to circle around this. But, they are wasting their time. The best bellwether states nowadays are—listed with their population rank—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Two are Top 10 populous states. Effectively replacing declining and/or former bellwethers—and likewise Top 10 populous states—Florida and Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (with Wisconsin) will be key, for both major U.S. political parties, to shaping victory on the electoral map.
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Redban
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2021, 12:38:05 PM »

Although it won't be the tipping point state in an election, North Carolina is going to be the purple, 50-50 state that Ohio used to be.

States like PA and MI are leaning Democrat
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2021, 06:19:24 PM »

Wisconsin was the tipping point in 2016 and 2020, and it seems increasingly difficult to picture a Republican victory map that doesn't include it. A narrow victory that doesn't include PA still seems basically plausible (hell, Trump didn't actually need PA in 2016 or 2020) -- though there's probably no way to get around a Republican victory needing at least 1 of GA, PA, or MI, and while GA was still the most attainable in 2020 it might be logical to think PA will be an easier haul soon.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2021, 08:47:01 AM »

PA and WI together

Republicans only need to win one. Democrats need both. Since they usually vote the same.

Whom ever win that pair will win the election

(This can change if AZ/GA/NC/TX starts to vote to the left of WI/PA)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2021, 12:29:45 AM »

Pennsylvania I'd say.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2021, 06:32:56 AM »

It will be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin until it's Georgia or Arizona.
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Samof94
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2021, 06:42:03 AM »

Although it won't be the tipping point state in an election, North Carolina is going to be the purple, 50-50 state that Ohio used to be.

States like PA and MI are leaning Democrat
It seems about the right size too.
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patzer
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2021, 02:42:44 PM »

It will be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin until it's Georgia or Arizona.

IMO Georgia is the new Virginia- rapidly swinging left and destined to become a safely-Democratic state by the end of the decade.
Arizona is harder to predict; it could remain fairly competitive or it could also go left.

As for the state which is the new Ohio- I think it has to be Pennsylvania or North Carolina. Neither is likely to go strongly for either party.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2021, 02:53:25 PM »

It will be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin until it's Georgia or Arizona.

IMO Georgia is the new Virginia- rapidly swinging left and destined to become a safely-Democratic state by the end of the decade.
Arizona is harder to predict; it could remain fairly competitive or it could also go left.

As for the state which is the new Ohio- I think it has to be Pennsylvania or North Carolina. Neither is likely to go strongly for either party.
Arizona has an influx of right-leaning seniors that continues to this day, so it should remain competitive well after Georgia becomes safe D.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2021, 01:31:02 PM »

It will be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin until it's Georgia or Arizona.

IMO Georgia is the new Virginia- rapidly swinging left and destined to become a safely-Democratic state by the end of the decade.
Arizona is harder to predict; it could remain fairly competitive or it could also go left.

As for the state which is the new Ohio- I think it has to be Pennsylvania or North Carolina. Neither is likely to go strongly for either party.

This guy gets it.  spot on analysis.
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Terlylane
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2021, 10:36:31 PM »

Wisconsin
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