Possible Realignments

[EastwoodS]

I would go with something like this:



1. Hispanic movement toward Republicans continues and accelerates. Republicans reclaim AZ, NV, and NM, fight to a draw in Texas even as Austin grows and are routinely able to hold Democrats to 2004 margins in CA.
2. Except for tech enclaves, the urban cores of the nation's largest cities continue swinging GOP.  This makes Florida and much of the Midwest uncontestable for Dems.  In California, L.A. County is pretty close, but Dem dominance holds in the Bay Area.
3. Small cities with significant creative/entertainment/tech influence trend hard Dem. 
4. A rising religious left movement develops, including Mormons, the black church, and a notable minority of white Evangelicals.  UT, ID, MT and much of the South flips Dem.  The most secular areas trend GOP.
5. GOP domination of and dependence on Florida leads to the party making significant concessions on climate change.  Traditionally environmentalist areas trend GOP and resource extraction areas trend Dem across the board, but they don't switch sides outright because the margins were so high to begin with.  This saves Dems from 1 and 2 in Texas.

BTW this is probably a long term Dem EC advantage because of the tighter margins in CA and how inelastic the South is.

So what issues would then be considered unreasonable or reasonable now?

1. This almost surely involves SCOTUS overturning/narrowing Roe/Casey enough in the next few years that abortion is primarily a state level issue again.  It's basically a prerequisite to get a meaningful religious left presence that abortion stops being a federal issue. 

2. The COVID era welfare state expansion mostly sticks. Dems get most of the credit.  This eventually helps them in the rural South, but only after #1 is complete.

3. Tariffs/tough on China policy becoming mainstream eventually does lead to a manufacturing revival and a more secure middle class, particularly in the North.  GOP gets most of the credit. 

4. In a reversal of 2000-2020, inflation is generally more of a concern than unemployment, with the GOP being the inflation hawk party.  Retiree heavy states hate the inflation and drift GOP.  Commodity producing states like the inflation and drift Dem.  The financial services industry snaps back hard to the right. 

5.  Going after Big Tech and the entertainment industry's growing ties to China is a major part of the GOP platform, although what exactly they can legally do about it is unclear. 

So basically a rescrambling where there remerges a depolarized Democratic and Republican Party where we see Northern Moderates and Southern conservatives.

What happens to modern liberals and conservatives?

Probably.  As recently as early 2020, we were headed for an era of nationalist Republican dominance with Dems focusing exclusively on social liberalism and probably getting shut out until 2028, but then Trump inexplicably went hard libertarian on COVID and scrambled everything.  Now Biden's people are basically coopting the national conservative fiscal agenda and the new Supreme Court will basically shut down any further shifts to the cultural left.  On some level, Biden's people seem to get that they got lucky and 2020 Dem coalition is nonviable in the long run, but the rest of the party is kicking and screaming about it.   

after a second Trump win in 2020, there's no reason to think dems don't get 53% or so of the PV in 2024.

Maybe, but only if the economy gives out.  Otherwise it's like a modern 1920's for Republicans.

Not a 1920s but I can see like a reverse 1992 in 2024..

[freepcrusher]

Maybe, but only if the economy gives out.  Otherwise it's like a modern 1920's for Republicans.

Trump was never that popular. Do you not see a six year itch giving the dems the senate in 2022 and a pretty good sized house majority?

[Skill and Chance]

I would go with something like this:



1. Hispanic movement toward Republicans continues and accelerates. Republicans reclaim AZ, NV, and NM, fight to a draw in Texas even as Austin grows and are routinely able to hold Democrats to 2004 margins in CA.
2. Except for tech enclaves, the urban cores of the nation's largest cities continue swinging GOP.  This makes Florida and much of the Midwest uncontestable for Dems.  In California, L.A. County is pretty close, but Dem dominance holds in the Bay Area.
3. Small cities with significant creative/entertainment/tech influence trend hard Dem. 
4. A rising religious left movement develops, including Mormons, the black church, and a notable minority of white Evangelicals.  UT, ID, MT and much of the South flips Dem.  The most secular areas trend GOP.
5. GOP domination of and dependence on Florida leads to the party making significant concessions on climate change.  Traditionally environmentalist areas trend GOP and resource extraction areas trend Dem across the board, but they don't switch sides outright because the margins were so high to begin with.  This saves Dems from 1 and 2 in Texas.

BTW this is probably a long term Dem EC advantage because of the tighter margins in CA and how inelastic the South is.

So what issues would then be considered unreasonable or reasonable now?

1. This almost surely involves SCOTUS overturning/narrowing Roe/Casey enough in the next few years that abortion is primarily a state level issue again.  It's basically a prerequisite to get a meaningful religious left presence that abortion stops being a federal issue. 

2. The COVID era welfare state expansion mostly sticks. Dems get most of the credit.  This eventually helps them in the rural South, but only after #1 is complete.

3. Tariffs/tough on China policy becoming mainstream eventually does lead to a manufacturing revival and a more secure middle class, particularly in the North.  GOP gets most of the credit. 

4. In a reversal of 2000-2020, inflation is generally more of a concern than unemployment, with the GOP being the inflation hawk party.  Retiree heavy states hate the inflation and drift GOP.  Commodity producing states like the inflation and drift Dem.  The financial services industry snaps back hard to the right. 

5.  Going after Big Tech and the entertainment industry's growing ties to China is a major part of the GOP platform, although what exactly they can legally do about it is unclear. 

So basically a rescrambling where there remerges a depolarized Democratic and Republican Party where we see Northern Moderates and Southern conservatives.

What happens to modern liberals and conservatives?

Probably.  As recently as early 2020, we were headed for an era of nationalist Republican dominance with Dems focusing exclusively on social liberalism and probably getting shut out until 2028, but then Trump inexplicably went hard libertarian on COVID and scrambled everything.  Now Biden's people are basically coopting the national conservative fiscal agenda and the new Supreme Court will basically shut down any further shifts to the cultural left.  On some level, Biden's people seem to get that they got lucky and 2020 Dem coalition is nonviable in the long run, but the rest of the party is kicking and screaming about it.   

after a second Trump win in 2020, there's no reason to think dems don't get 53% or so of the PV in 2024.

Maybe, but only if the economy gives out.  Otherwise it's like a modern 1920's for Republicans.

Not a 1920s but I can see like a reverse 1992 in 2024..

I think this hypothetical was about what would happen in 2024 had Trump been reelected in 2020.  I personally think it would have been 1988-lite with Pence.  

As far as things currently stand, I agree the Republican nominee goes into 2024 favored as long as Trump doesn't run and doubly so if Biden doesn't run.

[EastwoodS]

I would go with something like this:



1. Hispanic movement toward Republicans continues and accelerates. Republicans reclaim AZ, NV, and NM, fight to a draw in Texas even as Austin grows and are routinely able to hold Democrats to 2004 margins in CA.
2. Except for tech enclaves, the urban cores of the nation's largest cities continue swinging GOP.  This makes Florida and much of the Midwest uncontestable for Dems.  In California, L.A. County is pretty close, but Dem dominance holds in the Bay Area.
3. Small cities with significant creative/entertainment/tech influence trend hard Dem. 
4. A rising religious left movement develops, including Mormons, the black church, and a notable minority of white Evangelicals.  UT, ID, MT and much of the South flips Dem.  The most secular areas trend GOP.
5. GOP domination of and dependence on Florida leads to the party making significant concessions on climate change.  Traditionally environmentalist areas trend GOP and resource extraction areas trend Dem across the board, but they don't switch sides outright because the margins were so high to begin with.  This saves Dems from 1 and 2 in Texas.

BTW this is probably a long term Dem EC advantage because of the tighter margins in CA and how inelastic the South is.

So what issues would then be considered unreasonable or reasonable now?

1. This almost surely involves SCOTUS overturning/narrowing Roe/Casey enough in the next few years that abortion is primarily a state level issue again.  It's basically a prerequisite to get a meaningful religious left presence that abortion stops being a federal issue. 

2. The COVID era welfare state expansion mostly sticks. Dems get most of the credit.  This eventually helps them in the rural South, but only after #1 is complete.

3. Tariffs/tough on China policy becoming mainstream eventually does lead to a manufacturing revival and a more secure middle class, particularly in the North.  GOP gets most of the credit. 

4. In a reversal of 2000-2020, inflation is generally more of a concern than unemployment, with the GOP being the inflation hawk party.  Retiree heavy states hate the inflation and drift GOP.  Commodity producing states like the inflation and drift Dem.  The financial services industry snaps back hard to the right. 

5.  Going after Big Tech and the entertainment industry's growing ties to China is a major part of the GOP platform, although what exactly they can legally do about it is unclear. 

So basically a rescrambling where there remerges a depolarized Democratic and Republican Party where we see Northern Moderates and Southern conservatives.

What happens to modern liberals and conservatives?

Probably.  As recently as early 2020, we were headed for an era of nationalist Republican dominance with Dems focusing exclusively on social liberalism and probably getting shut out until 2028, but then Trump inexplicably went hard libertarian on COVID and scrambled everything.  Now Biden's people are basically coopting the national conservative fiscal agenda and the new Supreme Court will basically shut down any further shifts to the cultural left.  On some level, Biden's people seem to get that they got lucky and 2020 Dem coalition is nonviable in the long run, but the rest of the party is kicking and screaming about it.   

after a second Trump win in 2020, there's no reason to think dems don't get 53% or so of the PV in 2024.

Maybe, but only if the economy gives out.  Otherwise it's like a modern 1920's for Republicans.

Not a 1920s but I can see like a reverse 1992 in 2024..

I think this hypothetical was about what would happen in 2024 had Trump been reelected in 2020.  I personally think it would have been 1988-lite with Pence.  

As far as things currently stand, I agree the Republican nominee goes into 2024 favored as long as Trump doesn't run and doubly so if Biden doesn't run.

Well more so, 1992 meaning I think it could be a more Republican friendly realignment. 1992-now and largely 2008 to now have been more D aligned. I’m not sure why Dem think the next alignment will also be Democrat aligned? Republicans are due for theirs so what gives?

[freepcrusher]

I would go with something like this:



1. Hispanic movement toward Republicans continues and accelerates. Republicans reclaim AZ, NV, and NM, fight to a draw in Texas even as Austin grows and are routinely able to hold Democrats to 2004 margins in CA.
2. Except for tech enclaves, the urban cores of the nation's largest cities continue swinging GOP.  This makes Florida and much of the Midwest uncontestable for Dems.  In California, L.A. County is pretty close, but Dem dominance holds in the Bay Area.
3. Small cities with significant creative/entertainment/tech influence trend hard Dem. 
4. A rising religious left movement develops, including Mormons, the black church, and a notable minority of white Evangelicals.  UT, ID, MT and much of the South flips Dem.  The most secular areas trend GOP.
5. GOP domination of and dependence on Florida leads to the party making significant concessions on climate change.  Traditionally environmentalist areas trend GOP and resource extraction areas trend Dem across the board, but they don't switch sides outright because the margins were so high to begin with.  This saves Dems from 1 and 2 in Texas.

BTW this is probably a long term Dem EC advantage because of the tighter margins in CA and how inelastic the South is.

So what issues would then be considered unreasonable or reasonable now?

1. This almost surely involves SCOTUS overturning/narrowing Roe/Casey enough in the next few years that abortion is primarily a state level issue again.  It's basically a prerequisite to get a meaningful religious left presence that abortion stops being a federal issue. 

2. The COVID era welfare state expansion mostly sticks. Dems get most of the credit.  This eventually helps them in the rural South, but only after #1 is complete.

3. Tariffs/tough on China policy becoming mainstream eventually does lead to a manufacturing revival and a more secure middle class, particularly in the North.  GOP gets most of the credit. 

4. In a reversal of 2000-2020, inflation is generally more of a concern than unemployment, with the GOP being the inflation hawk party.  Retiree heavy states hate the inflation and drift GOP.  Commodity producing states like the inflation and drift Dem.  The financial services industry snaps back hard to the right. 

5.  Going after Big Tech and the entertainment industry's growing ties to China is a major part of the GOP platform, although what exactly they can legally do about it is unclear. 

So basically a rescrambling where there remerges a depolarized Democratic and Republican Party where we see Northern Moderates and Southern conservatives.

What happens to modern liberals and conservatives?

Probably.  As recently as early 2020, we were headed for an era of nationalist Republican dominance with Dems focusing exclusively on social liberalism and probably getting shut out until 2028, but then Trump inexplicably went hard libertarian on COVID and scrambled everything.  Now Biden's people are basically coopting the national conservative fiscal agenda and the new Supreme Court will basically shut down any further shifts to the cultural left.  On some level, Biden's people seem to get that they got lucky and 2020 Dem coalition is nonviable in the long run, but the rest of the party is kicking and screaming about it.   

after a second Trump win in 2020, there's no reason to think dems don't get 53% or so of the PV in 2024.

Maybe, but only if the economy gives out.  Otherwise it's like a modern 1920's for Republicans.

Not a 1920s but I can see like a reverse 1992 in 2024..

I think this hypothetical was about what would happen in 2024 had Trump been reelected in 2020.  I personally think it would have been 1988-lite with Pence.  

As far as things currently stand, I agree the Republican nominee goes into 2024 favored as long as Trump doesn't run and doubly so if Biden doesn't run.

Well more so, 1992 meaning I think it could be a more Republican friendly realignment. 1992-now and largely 2008 to now have been more D aligned. I’m not sure why Dem think the next alignment will also be Democrat aligned? Republicans are due for theirs so what gives?

depending on if you want to call 1968 an R alignment at least the Rs got a SC out of it. What did the dems get? Like I might have to Thich Quang Duc myself in front of the building to get attention.

[dw93]

I think a realignment is currently underway and we won't see the end result of it for another decade. I think the Democrats will be slightly favored for the Presidency, the GOP will be favored for the Senate, with the House having a slight lean either way.

[Agonized-Statism]

A close race late in the Seventh Party System, circa 2052. The Midwest shifts more firmly into the Republicans' column in the 2030s, but by that time, the EV-rich Sun Belt states are no longer reliable for them. The Democrats generally win the presidency and maintain their big-tent coalition of the college-educated and non-whites. The Republicans try to strike a balance between the protectionist, anti-automation, isolationist Rust Belters and a new Eastern grouping disaffected with the aging Democrat machines (the product of some more convincing Kim Klaicks and Andrew Cuomo-style scandals in the 2040s). Meanwhile, the DSA continues building itself at the grassroots level.

The Eighth Party System takes shape once the abolition of the electoral college and other reforms allow for a three-party system to materialize. The US gets an NDP through a merging of the various leftist and green organizations, which is powerful in inner-cities and places devastated by climate change. Non-whites might start breaking from the Democrats and splitting more evenly between the parties. The Republicans might transform into a more diverse working class party with the least collaborative of right-wing populists crowded out. Alternatively, a second surge of white identitarianism confines the GOP to the Plains and the Democrats become even more dominant.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The Eighth Party System takes shape once the abolition of the electoral college and other reforms allow for a three-party system to materialize. The US gets an NDP through a merging of the various leftist and green organizations, which is powerful in inner-cities and places devastated by climate change. Non-whites might start breaking from the Democrats and splitting more evenly between the parties. The Republicans might transform into a more diverse working class party with the least collaborative of right-wing populists crowded out. Alternatively, a second surge of white identitarianism confines the GOP to the Plains and the Democrats become even more dominant.

How do you think this would play out? And which areas would the "New Democratic Party"/DSA third party be strongest in?

[Agonized-Statism]

The Eighth Party System takes shape once the abolition of the electoral college and other reforms allow for a three-party system to materialize. The US gets an NDP through a merging of the various leftist and green organizations, which is powerful in inner-cities and places devastated by climate change. Non-whites might start breaking from the Democrats and splitting more evenly between the parties. The Republicans might transform into a more diverse working class party with the least collaborative of right-wing populists crowded out. Alternatively, a second surge of white identitarianism confines the GOP to the Plains and the Democrats become even more dominant.

How do you think this would play out? And which areas would the "New Democratic Party"/DSA third party be strongest in?

If the Republicans can suppress the overt racists by then, non-white voter blocs as monoliths disappear, and pundits talk about securing votes based on income, occupation, religion, and so on instead. Racism would still exist, obviously, but neither party would have a monopoly on the response. With automation changing the entire field of policing, the biggest race-related issue in politics might be bilingualism.

I'm picturing anti-automation autarkist Republicans making a base out of the current Great Lakes swing states in the 2030s, but later in the century, the Rust Belt has little to show for it and the Democratic Socialists break through as the main opposition. Urban cores like Detroit and Chicago, where they currently do the most organizing, would become bases for the DSA. They would also make a base out of coastal Southern and Western communities hit by climate change, primarily by providing mutual aid during crises as AOC did in Houston after the Freeze. As climate change advances and Sun Belt prosperity comes to an end, the DSA's center of power will shift southward and they might get weaker in their traditional Rust Belt bases, where affluent Democrats will migrate and the local economy might finally revive.

A major faultline between the parties would be trans issues. Democrats, for a time, would represent the consensus (gay people good, trans people bad, more immigrant women in combat roles to kill Middle Eastern children yas queen slaaay), but advancements in biotech eventually bring about a second wave of the sexuality and gender-based countercultures that rocked the country in the 2010s. Body modding would reach a level of sophistication that would make these subcultures a lot more visible. The non-binary (pun intended) nature of the new social issues would facilitate the rise of this three-party system. Having fully absorbed the non-populist Republicans, Democrats would position themselves as moderates who tolerate bioconservative moral panic to some extent. A third faction evolving out of the old incel and MGTOW movements looking to use technologies like artificial uteri and sexbots to reestablish traditional gender roles could make its home alongside traditionalist bioconservatives in the GOP. Democrat TERFs would retaliate by arguing for "muh slippery slope"/the personhood of sexbots, which would open up new fronts on the AI and great ape personhood debates. In any case, way more complex than current skin-deep divides, and apt to split further than bioconservative vs. biolibertarian.

The DSA would operate more like the old unions and fraternities, where you have to pay dues but get certain protections and insurance (more important in America's financially decaying, uncertain future, post-social security collapse). Smaller than the other two, but with more devoted and disciplined followers.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think the 2 party system will stay for the near future.

[Ferguson97]

I expect gender will continue to become a reliable indicator of how one votes.

Men across all racial demographics will likely continue to shift towards the Republicans, especially Latino men. Women across all racial demographics will shift towards the Democrats, especially white women. This will also correlate with education, where a college-educated woman is all but guaranteed to vote Democrat and a non-college man is all but guaranteed to vote Republican. Non-college educated women and college-educated men will both see a shift towards Democrats, while men overall see a decline in college participation.

[BigVic]

Realignment will be possible in the next 8 years

[Person Man]

Realignment will be possible in the next 8 years

We’ve been waiting for one for the last 20 years.