True or false: No Republican will ever win CA ever again?

[morgieb]

False, because "ever" is a long time.

A more interesting question is "will a Republican win Cali in our lifetimes?" That is a fair bit more ambiguous. I think there'll probably be a mega landslide where Cali jumps on for the ride in the distant future, but it'll be tricky to see it voting to the right of the nation under most plausible coalitions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

False, because "ever" is a long time.

A more interesting question is "will a Republican win Cali in our lifetimes?" That is a fair bit more ambiguous. I think there'll probably be a mega landslide where Cali jumps on for the ride in the distant future, but it'll be tricky to see it voting to the right of the nation under most plausible coalitions.

Agreed, but, an even more interesting question is: "Will CA vote to the right of the nation in our lifetimes". Assuming average life expectancy, the average Atlas poster might live on until...2070?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

"I say good sir, shall the Republican Party ever be able to win electoral votes in the old confederacy?"

- Talk Elections Newspaper column, 1888

"Nay, and those who suggest that the Grand Old Party shall ever win the old south make a most absurd proposition. It is as absurd as Vermont ever voting for the Democratic Party!"

Times (and parties) change, y'all

[patzer]

It's possible. One option is shifting coalitions to put the Hispanic vote more heavily within the Republican column.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

It's possible. One option is shifting coalitions to put the Hispanic vote more heavily within the Republican column.

I’ve said this before, but even if CA Hispanics start voting like FL/TX Hispanics, white liberals who are still in the state and particularly in the Bay Area will mean that it still ain’t gonna be within 15 for the time being.

CA going red would require the population of the Bay Area in particular to change their way of voting drastically, and I don’t know how that happens any time soon. I can absolutely see SoCal trending/swinging red (including LA) and most of the non-Bay Area parts swinging right too, but the Bay itself swinging right would require a massive population change or a re-alignment of sorts.

[Cyrusman]

It's possible. One option is shifting coalitions to put the Hispanic vote more heavily within the Republican column.

I’ve said this before, but even if CA Hispanics start voting like FL/TX Hispanics, white liberals who are still in the state and particularly in the Bay Area will mean that it still ain’t gonna be within 15 for the time being.

CA going red would require the population of the Bay Area in particular to change their way of voting drastically, and I don’t know how that happens any time soon. I can absolutely see SoCal trending/swinging red (including LA) and most of the non-Bay Area parts swinging right too, but the Bay itself swinging right would require a massive population change or a re-alignment of sorts.

Why are white people in the Bay Area so stubbornly democratic?

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

It's possible. One option is shifting coalitions to put the Hispanic vote more heavily within the Republican column.

I’ve said this before, but even if CA Hispanics start voting like FL/TX Hispanics, white liberals who are still in the state and particularly in the Bay Area will mean that it still ain’t gonna be within 15 for the time being.

CA going red would require the population of the Bay Area in particular to change their way of voting drastically, and I don’t know how that happens any time soon. I can absolutely see SoCal trending/swinging red (including LA) and most of the non-Bay Area parts swinging right too, but the Bay itself swinging right would require a massive population change or a re-alignment of sorts.

Why are white people in the Bay Area so stubbornly democratic?

I don’t know, I don’t live there, though I lived 3 hours away from the Bay at one point.

I should ask this question to someone on here from there.

[David Hume]

I believe this is true but curious to hear some opinions

I’m a firm believer that no Republican will ever carry California again whether that’s 50,100,150 years from now
George H W Bush will go down in the history books as the last Republican to ever win California
What do you think?

Ever is much longer than you thought....

150 years ago, which is 1871, could you imagine black vote 90+ dem?

[Chips]

False.

[Utah Neolib]

False, because ever is a long time

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

False, because ever is a long time

[TodayJunior]

False. Party coalitions inevitably change over time. CA will inevitably go for the GOP again at some point in the future, probably when the Republican nominee wins a landslide again, like in 1972 and 1984. It won't happen until we get over our current hyperpolarization, and that may take a couple of decades to happen.

This made me laugh hard. Good one!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

As others have said, 'ever' is a long time.

If we had Atlas in the 20s, someone would be asking the same question about the most Republican state in the country, Vermont.

Honestly, I can't see it being a Vermont until the GOP moves past culture wars. Maybe I could see a moderate/liberal Baker-esque Republican from the state such as me winning a state-level race against poor competition (say a race for treasurer v. Christy Smith) in the near future.