How the hell did the GOP win a senate race in Illinois as recently as 2010?

[Roll Roons]

Mark Kirk was a really, really good candidate. In 2008, a blue tidal wave year, Mark won reelection in IL-10 by 6 points as favorite son Obama carried it by 22. He was a very moderate Republican, and that's the only kind of Republican who has a chance of winning statewide in IL. He was to the left of Collins/Murkowski, and probably even Manchin.

He only lost as badly as he did in 2016 because his stroke completely messed him up. It would have been better to have him retire and let the GOP run Adam Kinzinger or Bob Dold.

Giannoulias also had some ethical issues, and Illinois Democrats were dragged down that year by the stink of Blagojevich.

[Roll Roons]

Mark Kirk was a really, really good candidate. In 2008, a blue tidal wave year, Mark won reelection in IL-10 by 6 points as favorite son Obama carried it by 22. He was a very moderate Republican, and that's the only kind of Republican who has a chance of winning statewide in IL. He was to the left of Collins/Murkowski, and probably even Manchin.

He only lost as badly as he did in 2016 because his stroke completely messed him up. It would have been better to have him retire and let the GOP run Adam Kinzinger or Bob Dold.

Giannoulias also had some ethical issues, and Illinois Democrats were dragged down that year by the stink of Blagojevich.

Great reply, thanks!

Do you think Adam Kinzinger would have any chance at winning a senate race?

I think it is theoretically possible for a Republican to win a Senate race in Illinois, which is more than you can say for California or New York, but the path is very, very narrow. If any Republican can do it, it's probably Kinzinger, but just about everything would have to go right.

[Roll Roons]

Mark Kirk was a really, really good candidate. In 2008, a blue tidal wave year, Mark won reelection in IL-10 by 6 points as favorite son Obama carried it by 22. He was a very moderate Republican, and that's the only kind of Republican who has a chance of winning statewide in IL. He was to the left of Collins/Murkowski, and probably even Manchin.

He only lost as badly as he did in 2016 because his stroke completely messed him up. It would have been better to have him retire and let the GOP run Adam Kinzinger or Bob Dold.

Giannoulias also had some ethical issues, and Illinois Democrats were dragged down that year by the stink of Blagojevich.

The case for Mark Kirk being a good candidate would be better if he was able to gain with the same constituencies that Trump did from Obama voters while holding his numbers in the Chicago area. Instead, he lost by nearly the same margin as Trump, trading gains in the Collar Counties for a large underperformance in southern and central Illinois.

OP is asking how Kirk won in 2010, and he was a very good candidate then. He wouldn't have won a Senate race as a Republican in Illinois if he wasn't a good candidate.

But when he ran for reelection, his stroke really hurt his physical and mental capabilities to the point where he was no longer capable of being the same candidate that he was six years earlier.

[Roll Roons]

Let me tell you youngins about something we had back in the day, we called it ticket splitten. On votin day we would tie an onion to our belt, as was the style, and head on down to polling place where sometimes we actually voted for people from different parties for different offices if you can imagine that...

This weird thing still exists if you look in the right places. Especially out yonder in those crazy lands we call Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire. And a few other spots here and there.