How the hell did the GOP win a senate race in Illinois as recently as 2010? (user search)
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  How the hell did the GOP win a senate race in Illinois as recently as 2010? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How the hell did the GOP win a senate race in Illinois as recently as 2010?  (Read 1349 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 05, 2021, 08:08:24 PM »

Because a lot has changed a lot faster than ever could have been anticipated in this country. The Obama midterms were clearly less partisan than they seemed at the time. as much as partisanship has caused our politics to decay, it has worked somewhat to Democrats' advantage as well. It's why I cannot fathom 2022 being anywhere near as bad for the party as 2010 and 2014 were, though it will still almost certainly be an electoral disaster.

I bet we'll be saying this same thing about Colorado electing Gardner back in 2014 soon.

People seem to forget that it was already working to their advantage in 2014, since most Democratic candidates for Senate (e.g. Begich, Peters, Pryor, Shaheen, even Warner, ...) significantly outran the partisan lean of & Obama approval in their states. If that hadn’t been the case, the GOP would have gained 11-12 Senate seats that year. It’s just that the extremely favorable battlefield (mostly in red states) and the number of GOP gains concealed the fact that 2014 really wasn’t that big of a GOP wave in the Senate. Other than CO (which really was more of a D-leaning swing state back then), they performed very poorly in blue states that year — and even in CO, the margin of victory wasn’t that impressive.

This is why I don’t get the "2022 can’t be worse than 2014" line of thought unless you just base it on number of Senate seats gained by the opposition party. I highly doubt people like Hassan or Kelly will poll much higher than Biden's approval rating in their states by election day.
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