Change in conventional wisdom?

[Skill and Chance]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

I'm going to be a bit contrarian.

Generally:

FL>WI>NC>NV>AZ>PA>GA>NH


With Sununu:

FL>WI>NC>NV>AZ>NH>PA>GA

They are at huge risk of blowing it in heavily Hispanic areas, but probably holding up better than expected in the North.

[MT Treasurer]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

I'm going to be a bit contrarian.

Generally:

FL>WI>NC>NV>AZ>PA>GA>NH


With Sununu:

FL>WI>NC>NV>AZ>NH>PA>GA

They are at huge risk of blowing it in heavily Hispanic areas, but probably holding up better than expected in the North.

Thanks! I like those, too. NV this far to the right of PA is surely bold (even though I agree with you that the D strength/firewall there is overblown), but this is very plausible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2024 might be the yr that we will get from under Covid, but not in time for 2022

But, at any case, the D's will keep the S and Prez because the 278 map is replicated thru 2026

We don't know about the H, we have had split H and split Senates In 2010, 2012 and 2018 before and it can happen in 2022

Early in Biden Prez when Portman and Blunt retired, we thought Covid was being Eradicated, but Covid went back up again setting us up probably for a neutral Environment

RS TAKE H based on Redistricting and D's win WI, PA, NH and replicate278 Govs for 2022

The Ds can win the H back eventually we
Biden is at 51/49 Approvals not 55 because Biden lost FL by 3 and DeSantis is up by 6

[EastwoodS]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.

1) midterms = educated electorate

2) trump not on the ballot to rev up his base

3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

4) Even if GOP states gained in reapportionment, Dem areas are growing within most states while GOP (i.e., rural) areas are shrinking.  So I think reapportionment might actually help Dems.

5) Biden isn't unpopular

6) GOP did well in 2020 in the House, meaning it won a lot of the very close races.  That means there's a lot of low hanging fruit this time for Dems in places like Orange County, etc. 

Trump not on the ballot to excite the Dem base, lol.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I feel like the going theory about the 2022 midterms had been, until very recently, that the map looked pretty favorable to Democrats, despite being the governing party. In the last couple of days, it seems like everything has become very doom-and-gloom, with lots of talk about the Dems having a difficult time and an uphill battle, etc. Why is this? Is it just regression to the mean, the desire for a horserace, were the initial favorable takes wrong?

Eh, it's been doom-and-gloom the instant Biden was the projected winner. As soon as he won, the "Dems are gonna lose badly in 2022" takes were already out in droves.

What constitutes "badly" seems to be up for debate though. Something like a -8 result in the House could be considered devastating since the chamber flips, although I'd consider a result like that miraculous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.

1) midterms = educated electorate

2) trump not on the ballot to rev up his base

3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

4) Even if GOP states gained in reapportionment, Dem areas are growing within most states while GOP (i.e., rural) areas are shrinking.  So I think reapportionment might actually help Dems.

5) Biden isn't unpopular

6) GOP did well in 2020 in the House, meaning it won a lot of the very close races.  That means there's a lot of low hanging fruit this time for Dems in places like Orange County, etc. 

Trump not on the ballot to excite the Dem base, lol.

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 2016 was the last time Rs won on Generic ballot